I have SA and I recognized CJ.

CATS is gonna get murdered.

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A E I OWN U

Board 8 will go to hell, and we'll need another account level requirement. :-p

And that's what makes this board so great.

Wasn't Vice City on top of the charts when he Vercetti battled DK?

Either that or Final Fantasy X, I'm not sure which. Either way, Donkey Kong is greater than Ness.

It didn't stop Ceej from using one for the character profile page.

The character profile page isn't really a big deal. I wouldn't be surprised if most bracket makers knew who he was, considering many contestants ares relatively hardcore gamers. For those who didn't, a nice little description was right beside his picture.

And even though CJ has official art, it doesn't necessarily mean that it would be the best pic to use...

I hope CJayC recognizes that too...

http://www.sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=16&phid=19&PHPSESSID=8d3f6c672a8742d0f5f554e903158147

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b02.jpg

I like that picture. Nice to see Ness crossing video game racial boundaries and reach out to Carl.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.

Match 2: (4) Ness vs. (5) Carl “CJ” Johnson

Past Performances:

Ness

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Lost to Bowser, 24.93% - 75.07%
Ranked: 55th

Summer 2004
Beat Jak, 55.08% - 44.92%
Lost to Auron, 34.96% - 65.04%
Ranked: 34th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Carl “CJ” Johnson

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Another new comer has come to challenge an older character in a match, but this time the new comer has a great chance on winning. Carl is from the newest addition to the GTA series San Andreas, while Ness is from the cult game, Earthbound. So its very cult vs. very casual favorite seems like two extremes are going to fight each other. Despite with most of the board hating GTA and its series CJ is the huge favorite going into this match. Now since CJ is new we’ll have to determine his strength.

First we could use Tommy Vercetti’s numbers since he’s been to the contest before and was from the GTA game, Vice City. This is very good for CJ since Vercetti himself is comfortably above Ness, but most likely CJ will not = TV. First San Andreas is a new game and could bring in more fans. Also the FAQ’s for San Andreas is usually 3 of the top 4 spots, but that doesn’t really help much since if that was true other characters in the past would’ve done better.

Also to get this clear people have been saying that CJ would be weaker because he’s black and most of GameFAQs is white. Well I have to kind of agree with you because there are racist in the world, but I don’t think that will hurt CJ because racist people could’ve easily voted against Tommy Vercetti because he’s Italian.

Now if you’ve been reading any gaming news lately you will of course have heard about the Hot Coffee Mod and even though this is bad publicity, well you’ve probably heard of “bad publicity is better than no publicity”. Now I do find that this lawsuit is dumb since to even get the thing to work you have to hack into the game, but also this news could give CJ a boost. This can also lower his popularity, but in the long run this is good new for a CJ boost.

Finally if you’ve watched the villains contest you probably know the poor job Officer Tenpenny did. What I think is that people who played GTA liked the game for its freedom and I know people that have this game, but don’t even do the missions. So what I’m saying is that GTA fans only really cared about the main character. Personally I wouldn’t think characters like Big Smoke, Ryder, Lance Vance, Ricardo Diaz, Catalina or Asuka would do well. Hell even Tanner made a cameo in GTA3 and even with that he’s bad.

So CJ wins this match, but to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if Ness kept this match close. CJ may be hated on this board, but many people agreed that CJ will have the best chance on winning this match.

chamander6000’s Bracket: Carl Johnson over Ness

charmander6000’s Prediction: Carl wins, 56.23% - 43.77%

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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

My numbers, believe it or not, indicate an overperformance by Magus in this match, which will give Squall the win.

Let me get this straight. You're assuming that Magus overperformed against Link without there being any evidence whatsoever outside of a couple of inconsistent fodder characters? And we're not even talking decent fodder, either; we're talking about Luca Blight and Sam Fisher for crissakes.

And just so people don't think I'm being biased, I also think that your assumption of Cloud overperforming against Sonic in that same 2003 contest is equally stupid. I believe Cloud was perfectly consistent between 2003 and 2004.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I like that picture. Nice to see Ness crossing video game racial boundaries and reach out to Carl.

Looks like he wants to steal that chain to me.

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A E I OWN U

but I don’t think that will hurt CJ because racist people could’ve easily voted against Tommy Vercetti because he’s Italian.

Good analysis, but careful about the racism part. Racism, more or less, deals with color, not heritage.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.

I don%u2019t think that will hurt CJ because racist people could%u2019ve easily voted against Tommy Vercetti because he%u2019s Italian.

Italian? racist? we're talking about skin color, I barely knew Tommy Vercetti was italian.

we're talking about Luca Blight and Sam Fisher for crissakes.

Yeah, agreed, I think Sam Fisher probably had more bracket votes.
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

CATS is gonna murder

Fixed
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Today's subliminal thought is:

Oh and if CJ does win, I expect him to do less than 55%, assuming he's weaker than Vercetti.
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

And we're not even talking decent fodder, either; we're talking about Luca Blight and Sam Fisher for crissakes.

The only problem is that Magus made Sam Fisher LOOK like decent fodder. Samus proved he wasn't.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Good analysis, but careful about the racism part. Racism, more or less, deals with color, not heritage.

Then what's a better word? I guess you can also say because he was white

Italian? racist? we're talking about skin color, I barely knew Tommy Vercetti was italian.

See above.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Sam SFF!
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

The only problem is that Magus made Sam Fisher LOOK like decent fodder. Samus proved he wasn't.

And that's why no one would put Magus over Samus.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Let me get this straight. You're assuming that Magus overperformed against Link without there being any evidence whatsoever outside of a couple of inconsistent fodder characters? And we're not even talking decent fodder, either; we're talking about Luca Blight and Sam Fisher for crissakes.

And just so people don't think I'm being biased, I also think that your assumption of Cloud overperforming against Sonic in that same 2003 contest is equally stupid. I believe Cloud was perfectly consistent between 2003 and 2004.

I did not assume either that Magus overperformed against Link or that Cloud overperformed against Sonic. My algorithm was as follows: After finding the least-squares regression, calculate the difference between the actual result and expected result for every match, and remove the match that had the largest difference from the data set and re-do the regression assuming that match never happened. When I did this, the matches that came up were, in order, Link/Ganondorf 2k4, Bowser/Mario 2k4, Mario/Donkey Kong 2k2, the theoretical "Cloud 2k3 got 50% on Cloud 2k4" match, Cloud/Sonic 2k3, Link/Magus 2k3, and the theoretical "Sephiroth 2k2 got 50% on Sephiroth 2k3" match. In theory, this algorithm would enumerate the matches that had the most under/overperformance in them. From that data, I believe that Magus overperformed against Link in 2k3 and that Cloud overperformed against Sonic in 2k3. I did not make those assumptions purely for the result of adjusting the stats, they came out naturally.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Then what's a better word?

Bigotry would be an accurate word.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Then what's a better word? I guess you can also say because he was white

Yes, sure.
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

The only problem is that Magus made Sam Fisher LOOK like decent fodder. Samus proved he wasn't.

What the hell does that have to do with Magus possibly overperforming against Link? That just means Samus > Magus. I'd take that without another thought. How can Magus overpeform against Link when they're from different games altoghether?!

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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (199 Signs!)

And that's why no one would put Magus over Samus.

No kidding, but Samus wasn't supposed to come anywhere near quadrupling Sam Fisher. 2003 Sam Fisher would be expected to get 65% on 2004 Sam Fisher, even taking the big leap in Samus's strength into account.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

No kidding, but Samus wasn't supposed to come anywhere near quadrupling Sam Fisher. 2003 Sam Fisher would be expected to get 65% on 2004 Sam Fisher, even taking the big leap in Samus's strength into account.

To add to it, Sam also had a new game between 2k3 and 2k4, too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

After finding the least-squares regression, calculate the difference between the actual result and expected result for every match, and remove the match that had the largest difference from the data set and re-do the regression assuming that match never happened. When I did this, the matches that came up were, in order, Link/Ganondorf 2k4, Bowser/Mario 2k4, Mario/Donkey Kong 2k2, the theoretical "Cloud 2k3 got 50% on Cloud 2k4" match, Cloud/Sonic 2k3, Link/Magus 2k3, and the theoretical "Sephiroth 2k2 got 50% on Sephiroth 2k3" match. In theory, this algorithm would enumerate the matches that had the most under/overperformance in them. From that data, I believe that Magus overperformed against Link in 2k3 and that Cloud overperformed against Sonic in 2k3. I did not make those assumptions purely for the result of adjusting the stats, they came out naturally.

You have just killed off the brains of many newbies who probably think what you said made no sense, professor. You're my hero...but I still believe you're talking bull ****.

If you have to dig that deep into the XStats to come up with that, it is bound to fall, HARD. Do you mind telling us what actually comes out of that so we can see how Magus overperformed against Link? (If he actually did..)

I mean, even if he did, he got SFF'd much harder against Crono.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (199 Signs!)

For the record, if 2004 was the fluke, Sam Fisher will get 46.5% on Donkey Kong, and Gordon Freeman raises up to 20.99, Duke Nukem's level, which is five points higher than 2003, and ten points higher than 2002.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Alright lets TALK about patterns
2k3 Stats:
35. Sam Fisher 23.57
37 Lara Croft 22.85

2k4 Stats:
50. Sam Fisher 15.03
53. Lara Croft 13.91

Differences between 2k3 and 2k4:
Sam Fisher 8.54
Lara Croft 8.94

Factoring in Link's increase, Sam droppd 5 and half percentages between the two years, Lara dropped six. What do these two characters have in common?

They were Samus's first two opponents.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

...So Samus overperformed equally on both Fisher and Lara?
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Well its not that simple. You can believe that Sam was set for a drop due to Magus's overperformance and Lara was set for a drop, but they do make startling numbers.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

You can believe that Sam was set for a drop due to Magus's overperformance and Lara was set for a drop,

We have a winner!

Wait, overperformance by Magus? I thought it was an underperformance thanks to causals not knowing who Magus was.

Samus increase is partly responsible too.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mario vs. Joanna - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (0/0)

I believe he meant overperformance by Magus on Link, not on Sam Fisher.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Oh, my bad.

Then again, I think Magus's performance on Link is legit.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mario vs. Joanna - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (0/0)

Anyone have any statistics on how many matches the board usually gets incorrect? My bracket has 10 different spots from the BOP this year...

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All my base are belong to Yoblazer, winner of the Guru Contest.

There are four reasons I can contribute to why Lara and Sam unperformed so badly against Samus.

1. As I stated Sam was overestimated by the 2k3 stats, Lara had but one way to go.
2. Lesser Vote Totals hurt those type of character.
3. Samus increased legitmately
4. Samus overperformed to the whirlwind surronding those matches
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Ness/CJ is due up in three hours, so let's check out some numbers:

Unadjusted Tommy Vercetti: 24.15%
20XXDF Adjusted Tommy Vercetti: 25.40%

Unadjusted Ness: 21.25%
Auron/Tails Adjusted Ness: 23.46%
Auron/Scorpion Adjusted Ness: 24.60%

In a Ness/Vercetti match:
Ness' Best Case: Ness wins with 50.91%
Vercetti's Best Case: Vercetti wins with 58.17%

Okay, Vercetti's range is pretty small, even with the 20XXDF. Ness is a more interesting case. We can't get any direct data on Ness, because he been SFF'd by Bowser and behind Auron. We can't get any direct data on Auron, because he's been SFF'd by Cloud and Sephiroth. What we can do is look at Tails and Scorpion and try and figure out Auron's percentage, and thus Ness', that way. And those two numbers are fairly similar, leading me to believe that there's a very good chance that Ness is somewhere in that window. So,
Vercetti = 24.15% to 25.40%
Ness = 23.46% to 24.60%

Ness overlaps with Vercetti a bit. So the real question is if CJ is going to be stronger or weaker than last year's Vercetti. Given that I have Ness in my bracket, I'm guessing weaker. San Andreas may be the bigger game, but I'm thinking that mobster Vercetti appeals more to the typical visitor to GameFAQs than gangster CJ. As far as Ness' visibility goes, EarthBound may not be all that well known, but Super Smash Bros/Melee is, and that's all a character needs to win (points at Master Hand).

In sum, I think this match will be close no matter who wins (the spread of 16% for CJ is ridiculous), and I'm very confident in Ness' chances.

Also, the spellchecker doesn't recognize Ness?
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

but Super Smash Bros/Melee is, and that's all a character needs to win (points at Master Hand).

*points at Master Hand's position in the all-time stats*
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Anyone who has a prediction over 60% is instantly shut down.
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Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario Points: 0/0 Rank: ?/?

*points at Master Hand's position in the all-time stats*

*points out that Master Hand is nothing but an unexplained final boss and that Ness is one of the best characters in the original and non-optional in Melee*
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Despite Ness being good in the original, he's difficult to use. I can't imagine him being popular with the casual Smash Brothers player.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

*also points to Kuja*

This match definitely makes for some doubts though; I've stood firm on CJ being on-par with Vercetti and probably a lil' stronger, but you can't ignore Ness, either. It's also weird to think that an SFF'd Giygas outranked Tenpenny in the Villain Contest.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

You saw for yourself what difference SSBM made. Take 2003, that's the core Earthbound fanbase. Take 2004, that's it plus the SSB vote thrown in. 2004 still fails miserably against Tommy. CJ has more than enough leeway in the event he's weaker than Vercetti. CJ wins.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 000/000 - Matches: 00/00 - Rank: ?????/????? - Today: Mario - Tomorrow: CJ

The casual player usually likes the guys with swords in Melee. I just noticed that people I know who dont play a whole lot almost always choose Link, Marth, or Roy.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

I doubt Giygas was SFFed anywhere near like Ness in 2003. The difference between Bowser/Ness and Ganondorf/Giygas is that the Earthbound character wasn't in SSBM in the latter.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 000/000 - Matches: 00/00 - Rank: ?????/????? - Today: Mario - Tomorrow: CJ

The only difficult thing about him is his recovery move, but, given how good it is, I'm sure a lot of people took the time to learn. But the important thing is that he's in the game. I can't say anything positive about Master Hand and he still managed to beat Kuja merely because he showed up in the 1P modes.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Despite Ness being good in the original, he's difficult to use. I can't imagine him being popular with the casual Smash Brothers player.

From my experience in SSB, all my casual-for-life friends adored Ness and used him every chance they got. Now, how many casual-for-lifers actually got Ness, that may be a more important question.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

I prefer SMAUS myself.

Oh, and as much as I'm opposed to fodder, I'd love to see Kuja again to see if it was a fluke.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 000/000 - Matches: 00/00 - Rank: ?????/????? - Today: Mario - Tomorrow: CJ

Nah, keep Kuja out and give Zidane a character who won't SFF him.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I'm not saying it was alot of SFF...but if Bowser could decimate Ness with SFF, I think it's not out of the question for Ganon to get minor SFF on Giygas (which was what I meant; I should have clarified that I never meant to sound like there was alot of SFF).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

CJ has more than enough leeway in the event he's weaker than Vercetti. CJ wins.

That's the thing; there isn't leeway there. Not unless Scorpion took a sudden fall and Tails took a sudden leap, rendering Auron's range unusable.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Well, based on a static Scorpion, how would Ness get on Tommy?
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SC2K5 status - Points: 000/000 - Matches: 00/00 - Rank: ?????/????? - Today: Mario - Tomorrow: CJ

I'd like to see Kuja again if he faced Laharl, myself. That'd be his best chance to prove it wasn't a fluke before resorting to, well, even worse characters.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Well, based on a static Scorpion, how would Ness get on Tommy?

He'd beat unadjusted Vercetti with 50.91% and lose to 20XXDF Vercetti with 48.43%. Didn't CJ lose to Vercetti with 48% in IGN's contest...?
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

That's the thing; there isn't leeway there. Not unless Scorpion took a sudden fall and Tails took a sudden leap, rendering Auron's range unusable.

The fall of Scorpion is debatable, but Tails very well could have increased a lil' due to Sonic Heroes. Maybe not much, and I'm not sure if the stats would say he did at all...but I know Sonic came back up in strength (and I keep wanting to say Knuckles went up, though I'm pretty sure he didn't). If Tidus was more consistant, we might be able to tell if Shadow got any help or not, too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

20XXDF makes so little difference? I'd never have thought...
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SC2K5 status - Points: 000/000 - Matches: 00/00 - Rank: ?????/????? - Today: Mario - Tomorrow: CJ