I don't think we could count the number of people yelling "over-performance" at Raiden if he was even equal to Kirby, much less Squall.

Gone to bed now, g-nite ya'll.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

The next topic has been made, in case y'all happen to need it before I log on tomorrow so no one worries where it's at.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

just had a thought. how is ulti gonna make his post contest analysis if he's going to miss so many matches?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I seriously dont see how people can think Mario will beat Crono this year if they face.

Well if Mario beats Samus, what's not to wager that he won't beat Crono??? Beating Samus is tough for everyone not named Clinkeroth..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

If Mario wins, I'm calling SFF, no matter how close.

So if Mario beats Samus by SFF, it means that Crono should be able to take him out easily just like he did last year.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

Link didn't really SFF Samus, why should Mario?
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Feel the pain… of those inferior beings… as you burn in hell! ~ Kratos Aurion
Supporter of Auron, Chun Li, Magus & Samus for SC2k5

IMO he did. Explain why Samus did gain strength in 2004 if it wasn't because of Link SFF'D her?
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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

Explain why Link gained strength too? How about Crono?

All evidence points to Link not doing anything. Luigi stayed the same. KOS-MOS' match was predicted down to half a percent. Crash disappointed. Jill lost some more ground. Ratchet fell a lot.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

As soon as you explain why Jill took a drop in 2k4, instead of goin' up like she would have if Samus was SFF'd.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Why Link gained you say. Soul Calibur 2 and not WW Link in the finals.

Crono? Lower vote turnout.

I'm not even going to bother to tell you why characters dropped in 2k4 when they are not even in the bracket this year..

This isn't proof, but this is what I believe.

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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

Crono? Lower vote turnout.

He gained from 2k2 to 2k3, too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 7/15/2005 11:47:36 AM | #360
Why Link gained you say. Soul Calibur 2 and not WW Link in the finals.

Bull****. Link stayed the same from 2002 to 2003, that's the general consensus. So yeah, how could've Wind Waker given him a boost if it gets him anti-voted? There are enough flaws in that crackpot reasoning to tear down New York.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

If Samus did suffer SFF, Squall, Luigi, Ratchet, KOS-MOS, Jill and Crash should have done better in 2004 because Samus suffered SFF in 2003. But none of them did better so Samus didin't suffer SFF from Link. If she can't get SFF from Link, I don't see how Mario can deliver it to her.

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Feel the pain… of those inferior beings… as you burn in hell! ~ Kratos Aurion
Supporter of Auron, Chun Li, Magus & Samus for SC2k5

Oh I thought you asked me why Link gained from 2003 to 2004. Fine I admit Samus didn't get SFF'D, she underperformed. Are you guys happy now?
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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

Underperforming, SFF, what's the difference? She was exactly where she belonged in the stats in 2003.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

Fine I admit Samus didn't get SFF'D, she underperformed. Are you guys happy now?

Now you're just tryin' to keep arguin'.

I've gotta go to work. C-ya'll.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

There's really not enough to work with to say if Samus suffered SFF or not. The only characters not behind SFF in 2k4 were Samus, KOS-MOS, Ratchet, and Jill. The first two rose and the second two fell and none of it was proportional. I do think Samus was SFF'd, but I have no idea how much.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

.Maybe stupid question: Is it too late so sign up for the Guru Challenge? (If this is even the right topic)
Forgive my ignorance.
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SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21997510

err..

Link > = < Cloud >> Sephiroth > Samus > Crono > Megaman > Sonic > = < Snake

I'm pretty sure this will be this year's Noble 9 _-/
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May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by 4.38x in sales for the month of May.

I only count 8. Where's Mario?
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VOTE MARIO IN SC2K5
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/8386/votemario26vf.gif

If Samus did suffer SFF, Squall, Luigi, Ratchet, KOS-MOS, Jill and Crash should have done better in 2004 because Samus suffered SFF in 2003. But none of them did better so Samus didin't suffer SFF from Link. If she can't get SFF from Link, I don't see how Mario can deliver it to her.

Crash was stronger than the 2003 stats indicated. So was KOS-MOS. Squall was SFFed, so we don't really know his strength. There may have been some minimal SFF in Yoshi vs. Luigi, but even without it Luigi didn't change that much. Ratchet decreased, but Ratchet is just a weak bastard, and fodder tends to fluctuate quite a bit -- you shouldn't base any serious analysis off of someone like Ratchet fluctuating. Jill did decrease significantly, but she's really the only character who you've got any case with. Furthermore, Samus increased a lot from 2003 to 2004 if you don't think she was SFFed. And that makes less sense to me than Jill decreasing and a couple other characters suffering SFF.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

KOS-MOS' match was predicted down to half a percent

Umm yeah, because her and Ryu both increased by the same amount.

Even saying this, I'm still not entirely convinced that Samus didn't overperform against Cloud last year. She had MASSIVE board support towards her breaking 40% on Cloud.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

board support doesn't mean anything really. i mean there is what 150 people on this board 250 at full so it can help give an early lead but is it gonna make a difference in a 100k vote total match?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Right now the only matches I'm really worried about are Terra vs. Dante, Vincent vs. Kerrigan, Terra/Dante vs. Vincent/Kerrigan, Kirby vs. Tidus, Mario vs. Samus, and Crono vs. Mario/Samus. I have Terra losing to Vincent, but I just don't know where Vincent and Kerrigan will be, and Terra over Dante isn't exactly a lock. Still, I'm not changing those picks. Right now I'm trying to decide Kirby vs. Tidus, and then I just have to figure out where I stand on the three strongest characters in this contest. >_<

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Just figured I'd bring it up here too.

fodder tends to fluctuate quite a bit

Fodder does not generally fluctuate more than midcarders or elites. This is a myth with little backing. 12/17 of the "recurring fodder" fluctuated by 2.5% or more over the years. However, the midcarders and elites don't have a much better ratio.

All characters fluctuate by quite a bit, which is why X-Stats are pretty worthless if the characters are at least somewhat close.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Certain fodder characters (specifically, hardcore cult characters, such as Vyse or Laharl) don't tend to fluctuate very much. Their support base is loyal and doesn't grow or shrink much.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well, speaking of Auron...whether you measure thorugh Tails or Scorpion it's not going to be reliable. Using Auron vs. Tails you have to assume Auron would still beat Tails by the same amount, and that was two years ago. Using Scorpion vs. Auron you have to use Scorpion's value from '03...also two years ago.

And for the Kefka/Vercetti talk...I don't see what the trouble is here. Vercetti was expected to beat Kefka 56/44 last year, and they were in the same division. That's quite a margin to overcome, and Kefka didn't show any signs of increasing with Sp2K5. Vercetti almost surely didn't drop from 2K3 to 2K4, and I don't see why he would suddenly drop so much this year. It's not like people would suddenly forget about GTA:VC with GTA:SA out now.

Now, Ness/CJ...now that match deserves more attention. Ness could be as strong as 24% against Link. CJ hasn't even been measured yet. He can't be directly compared to Vercetti...he's a completely different style of character, being a gangster or whatever. Also, from what I could tell (and more than just that Gamespot poll), Vercetti is more liked than CJ, even if CJ might be the one who . Also, I say there's a small chance Ness has gotten more popular... according to PotDs over a year ago, Squaresoft had about 50% more votes than Nintendo had, but according to a poll in April Nintendo was ahead of Square by a bit. Now, maybe it could be more of Squaresoft decreasing, or maybe it perhaps it means nothing at all. In any case, if RPGuy's extrapolated standings for Sp2K5 are accurate it's a sign of Nintendo characters in general getting more popular.

I agree that Auron/Ganondorf should get more attention...Ganondorf got 57% against Alucard, and Auron got 64% against Tails. Alucard got 54% on Tails. Now, assuming none of the characters changed massively, doesn't it seem reasonable to pick Auron?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, it's kinda hard to deny that Alucard didn't increase some, since he beat Kirby easily.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Certain fodder characters (specifically, hardcore cult characters, such as Vyse or Laharl) don't tend to fluctuate very much. Their support base is loyal and doesn't grow or shrink much.

Granted, but a character like Ratchet seems like a more casual support character to me.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Yeah, and considering Alucard beat Bomberman 3% worse than he beat Duke Nukem the previous year, it seems he increased a lot. Still, it's fun thinking of how much of an advantage Auron has over Ganondorf when thinking that way. :P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I don't think it's a big deal that most matches have a consensus in the BOP. Fact of the matter is, we could all be in consensus that xxx wins by no more than .01 but still be in consensus that xxx gets that .01 win. We all recognize these matches are close, no one is disregarding that, we just all believe that one side has the advantage in a really close match. Really, just because it's lopsided in the BOP doesn't mean we as a board have decided that character has an easy victory.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

I don't think it's a big deal that most matches have a consensus in the BOP. Fact of the matter is, we could all be in consensus that xxx wins by no more than .01 but still be in consensus that xxx gets that .01 win. We all recognize these matches are close, no one is disregarding that, we just all believe that one side has the advantage in a really close match. Really, just because it's lopsided in the BOP doesn't mean we as a board have decided that character has an easy victory.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

You'll have to wait until I get back from vacation. I assume the stats topic will be in good hands until I'm back, yes? >_>

The Sage of Board 8 has things under control...and besides...with lockdown near...the satire begins soon after. I am more excited for this contest than I had been for the last 2 or 3...prolly cause I dont got to write about Linky, Cloudy, & Sephy so much.

I agree with Chich...poor Zidane and my fav, Cecil, got bad shakes in the bracket... a pity..cause they both would have beaten that jobber Lloyd...
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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Renowned Author, MK Master, Noob Basher & Fanbaby Smacker! Score: 0/0

The Summer Contest is about to begin! All entries for fourth annual Character Battle are due on Monday, so now would be a great time to enter. This year, 64 characters will battle it out starting on Tuesday to see which is the most popular, and this time the winner will face off against previous winners in a Tournament of Champions. Fill out your bracket today, and see if you can predict the winners.

Only four more days left until we start the contest. <3

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/15/2005 12:52:01 PM | #382
I don't think it's a big deal that most matches have a consensus in the BOP. Fact of the matter is, we could all be in consensus that xxx wins by no more than .01 but still be in consensus that xxx gets that .01 win. We all recognize these matches are close, no one is disregarding that, we just all believe that one side has the advantage in a really close match. Really, just because it's lopsided in the BOP doesn't mean we as a board have decided that character has an easy victory.

I think this is a very interesting phenomenon. In this topic, most of the disputable matches are even and thoroughly discussed, but in the BOP, it seems that the users less avid about contest analysis associate themselves with a particular argument from a user in the stats topic. Thus, the users who are most liked and most vocal about their claims gain the most support. Ironically, the device developed to gain the most opinions becomes rather imbalanced.

///
*Has KOS-MOS > Luigi*

I picked Square for every hard match and Nintendo for every easy one.
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SC2K5: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I wouldn't be surprised if Mario doubled Zero. ~maplejet

By that logic, I would say that any of the matches that have at least around 20 picks or so for the underdog would not be considered decided by any means. I think those would be cases of "we all know it will be close, most of us are siding with one character, but the upset has enough chance to happen that a good number of people are picking it."
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Yeah, but...Vercetti vs. Kefka? Almost nobody in the stats topic has Kefka for the win.

As for the rest, I agree with Chichiri. It doesn't matter if everyone thinks it's going to be a 51-49 match, they still have the same character winning, which is why Link has such a decisive advantage over Cloud, and Seph has an even more decisive advantage over Samus.

Look at the so-called "hard" matches in the contest, and the logic people use to decide them.

CJ vs. Ness - Assume CJ = TV, and this isn't even close.

Ganon vs. Auron - Ganon got 42% on Seph. Auron got 32% on Seph. There needs to be a hell of a lot of SFF to make that close.

Vivi vs. Zelda - Zelda gets a Ganon/Link-style increase from Zelda: CE, and decisively defeats Vivi.

Alucard vs. Sora - Closest match in the BOP, and IMO, the hardest match in the contest.

Kirby vs. Tidus - Tidus had one bad match. Other than that, he looks pretty spiffy.

Ryu vs. Bowser - The Spring makes this obvious.

Tidus vs. Bowser - Same as above

Bowser vs. Snake - Snake is noble nine, Bowser is not. This might be close, but then MGS3 came out.

TV vs. Kefka - Uh...this board is made up of Kefka fanboys, I suppose. And there's the new-GTA factor.

Devil Division - Set Vincent equal to Aeris, have the other characters in the Devil Division remain constant, and assume Terra = Kefka, and the division is set. None of the matches look particularly close if you do that.

Diablo vs. Kratos - There'd have to be a very large difference between Mithos and Kratos to make this close. Kratos only being a sidekick is a big problem.

Luigi vs. KOS-MOS - This is only close if you use SC2k4 Luigi, who was probably SFF'd.

Tifa vs. Luigi - Assume Aeris = Tifa, and this isn't close.

And...that's all, I believe. Arguments for the other side aren't nearly as compelling as they have been in previous years.

Heck, I'm not even a Kefka fanboy, but I just have this feeling he's going to pull through with the win.

I must feel something for the clown though, because when most predicted him to get blown out by Knux, I had always figured it was going to be at most a 60-40 match.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

How might GameSpot linking to the Character Battle affect character strength?
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This sig avaliable for rent.

This could be the most popular contest since SC2K3.
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Summer Contest Score: 0/0
Next Pick: Mario

How might GameSpot linking to the Character Battle affect character strength?

It's going to totally screw everything up, that's what it's going to do.

I definitely think I have to change some picks now. >_<

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Oh dammit, Vercetti is definitely looking good right now.

On a side note, I hope FF7 is hated there, and Samus is loved. >.>
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

MC over Crono and Squall over Magus suddenly became distinct possibilities.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

Oh great, Terra over Dante looks a lot less likely now too. And I have a feeling I can kiss Mario beating Samus goodbye.

Damn you, Gamespot! Damn you!

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

This is a new challenge and this topic should be welcoming it with open arms. Come on boys, let's show 'em what we've got!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Throw those extrapolated stats out the window! Anything goes in the game of war.

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."

I'm still not changing anything...

I'm getting on that leaderboard, and nothing will stop me.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

Honestly, I'm not too worried about it. GameFAQs and GameSpot must have plenty of crossover users already...and besides, we don't know how long the link will stay up on their front page.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Mac, you're putting way too much faith into the villain contest. Ganondorf and Bowser doing so well in it doesn't seal anything for me. Bowser did better than Mario, I mean come on. It makes alot more sense to assume that Sephiroth didn't do as well as he should have than to assume that Bowser and Ganondorf went way up.

And I'm all over the Gamespot linkage. This should make things more interesting. I can see the battle cry now... "OMG MAGUS IS GETTING GSFed!"
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!