I'd say Cloud over Link is a good strategy pick; however in terms of straight-up expectations, I think you have to favor Link.
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www.SC2K5.com

Cloud over Link is one of the few reasonable upsets I don't have.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

Oh yeah? Well it's one of EVERY reasonable upset I don't have.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

I have the balls to take Ocelot over Yoshi.

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A E I OWN U

I have the balls to take Ocelot over Yoshi.

Well, there ARE ballsier picks...but that's still too ballsy for me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

My only ballsy picks are KOS-MOS > Luigi and Sonic > Mega Man :(
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Crap, missed the lockdown.
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This is here so that I have a signature.

I have gutsy picks that should not be considered "gutsy," though they are on this board. I do have actual risky picks though.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Oh yeah, and who makes the topics while Ulti is away? Has it been decided?
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

Tidus > Bowser for me...STILL tempted to take Tidus over Solid, too, heh.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/15/2005 12:55:02 AM | #258
I have gutsy picks that should not be considered "gutsy," though they are on this board.

You mean, underrated picks like Auron over Ganondorf, Ryu over Bowser, Vivi over Zelda and stuff?
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

Well, he told me to make the topics whenever he wasn't here to make the new one, so I guess that still applies...
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

My only truly "gutsy" pick is Dante over Squall I'm thinking. And I have about 12 board upsets... yeah, that BOP is not gonna do too well, I can't think so.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

You mean, underrated picks like Auron over Ganondorf, Ryu over Bowser, Vivi over Zelda and stuff?

All three, actually.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Decided? Of course, he picked me!

...actually, I have no clue. It'll probably end up being you or Leon.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

My only truly "gutsy" pick is Dante over Squall I'm thinking.

Which must be set up by first having two other gutsy upsets.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

You mean, underrated picks like Auron over Ganondorf, Ryu over Bowser, Vivi over Zelda and stuff?

Proof that this board is Nintendo biased?
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This sig avaliable for rent.

Probably... Cloud over Link and Tidus over Bowser fall into that category too.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

I shouldn't talk, I have the Nintendo character in every one of those situations, but it's not bias, I actually believe they will all win.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

So do I. What Ganondorf and Bowser did this spring was probably the deciding factor, though it's more subconscious than anything - I personally don't give any credibility whatsoever to these results.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

I don't consider Dante over Vincent to actually be an upset, for one.

I will give you Squall over Magus, though. Even though it seems pretty reasonable to me. For reasons gone over about 70 times already.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

I try never to go with two upsets in a row. It was annoying that one time, having WW/FF10 in my bracket and seeing Starcraft/SSBM instead.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

So the only true tossups are Tommy vs Kefka and Sora vs Alucard? It doesn't seem right considering how debatable the other matches are.

I think Squall-over-Magus is fully possible...I just don't think it's fully likely, thus, it's an upset in my book.

I shouldn't talk, I have the Nintendo character in every one of those situations, but it's not bias, I actually believe they will all win.

As do I...and, to expand upon this, I think all three will be very close; 52-48 and closer.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

From: Starion | Posted: 7/15/2005 1:04:22 AM | #273
So the only true tossups are Tommy vs Kefka and Sora vs Alucard? It doesn't seem right considering how debatable the other matches are.

Exactly. Some consensuses are just ****ing ridiculous. More people with Bowser over Snake than people with Ryu over Bowser? Come on.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

So the only true tossups are Tommy vs Kefka and Sora vs Alucard?

If you mean matches with no defined favorite, Alucard/Sora is the only one.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

That's why the BOP is going to look rather silly. There's bound to be a few near unanimous upsets. It correlates too much for such an unpredictable bracket.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Our we allowed to post our bracket by link for the Guru Challenge?

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A E I OWN U

I think that was a BOP reference, where Kefka/Vercetti is close for whatever crazy reason.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

Yeah, I think the fact that the BOP was able to come to a consensus in nearly every match is quite odd. I think that people are relying too much on last year's XS, over half of which is based on 2k3. That's just too far back to be of any use, if you ask me.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

Actually, the X-Sts predict Ryu to beat Bowser, and based on a constant Scorpion, which nulls possible SFF in Cloud/Seph and Seph/Auron, I believe Auron beats Ganondorf.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

What my Nintendo bias is doing is making it much harder for me to try and changing to Ryu and/or Auron.

Well that and I entered my bracket in almost as soon as CJay posted it.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

Methinks that, between general favoritism and the BOP bein' known to be fairly successful, that "helps" people out on close matches and makes for more unanimous results.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Chalk those two matches up to the "exceptional preformances" those two had against Sephiroth in the Spring.

C'mon, Bowser doing better than Mario has to make people think there's something wrong with that, no?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Yes to Ryu/Bowser, but I believe that Auron through 2k3 Scorpion is still under 2k3 Ganondorf. I know Auron through 2k4 Tails is.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

The Spring Contest seems to hold greater weight than what the 2004 stats say, even though the Spring Contest does not definitively prove that Ganondorf or Bowser went up, as there are ways you can disprove it. While it is highly likely that they did in some regard, it's difficult to prove that it was anything significant.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Yes to Ryu/Bowser, but I believe that Auron through 2k3 Scorpion is still under 2k3 Ganondorf.

Auron through 2003 Scorpion is above Magus.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

The Spring Contest seems to hold greater weight than what the 2004 stats say, even though the Spring Contest does not definitively prove that Ganondorf or Bowser went up, as there are ways you can disprove it.

There are ways to disprove basicially anything that isn't definite.
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This sig avaliable for rent.

My bracket is perfected.... except for one match. I'm still beating myself over Sonic Vs MM.... who will win >_<...


I have whoever wins facing Samus, but I just don't know.... ;.;

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KingBartz: Been a full Virgin since '87

Exactly. The Spring Contest didn't prove anything definite. We have no way of knowing how legitimate those results were or how they hold in relation to Link himself.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Auron through 2003 Scorpion is above Magus.

Shows what I know. He still is, however, under Sp2k5 Ganondorf.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

Only one match bothers me, Kefka vs. Vercetti.

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A E I OWN U

Sp2k5 Ganondorf based on what? There's no way to tell how much of what happened in that match is based on Sephiroth falling or Ganondorf decreasing.

If it's based on Kefka, remember that neither of his two numbers are definite.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Wait, we go from knowing that Mega Man is stronger than Crono and Mario, to thinking that he might lose against Sonic, who is weaker than both Mario and Crono?

I dunno, it seems odd to me.

I think that Sonic wouldn't have managed above 30% against last years Link, but that's just me.
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There's fear and darkness all around you.
The criminals are on the run.

I think that Sonic wouldn't have managed above 30% against last years Link, but that's just me.

I don't see why not...He actually went up a bit last year, and he did avoid getting doubled by Cloud, who isn't far off from 2004 Link.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Sp2k5 Ganondorf based on what? There's no way to tell how much of what happened in that match is based on Sephiroth falling or Ganondorf decreasing.

Based on least square differences, and the closest character to being constant is indeed Kefka, though he's still a little off. And there is no way to know if that will hold up, but there's no way to know how much Auron has been SFF'd, either.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

Link would "old school SFF" Sonic just like Mega Man. Yeap. Gotta love the "old school SFF".
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Samus > Sonic =/= MM > Crono > Mario

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KingBartz: Been a full Virgin since '87

I think that some wacky SFF (gah, I hates that term now :(...) would have held him down.

Sure, they're fairly close, Link and Cloud, but Link was still about 2% stronger than Cloud. Those two things together make it plausible that Sonic would be kept under 30%.

Of course, I hate Sonic, so that may affect my judgement. A little. Not much, because I hate Mega Man too.

Bastards.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

Link would "old school SFF" Sonic just like Mega Man. Yeap. Gotta love the "old school SFF".

...that's not the reasoning behind Link/Megaman SFF
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This sig avaliable for rent.