Assuming Ganondorf increased at the same rate that Link did from 2003 to 2004, he should have had 34.73% (just below Mario) on Link, sans SFF. His villain contest results put him at 35.47, assuming a static Sephiroth. Since Sephiroth likely decreased from 2004 to the Spring Contest, and also factoring in possible franchise voting and the like (controversial as it may be), it seems that Ganon's increase may have been primarily from 2003 to 2004. Granted, it's unlikely he increased at the same rate Link did (putting him so close to Mario doesn't sit right with me), but it seems almost certain to me that he is underrated by the 2004 X-stats. As such, Alucard is also underrated. If 2004 Ganondorf was at 34.73%, that would put Alucard at 29.76% (just above Squall). That's more than enough to make me confident in my pick of him over Sora.

That happens to be the same exact logic I used.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I had Alucard over Sora for a different reason: in a close match, I tend to favor the character I like more. I also believe that Sora is overrated by 2004 stats.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I'm now looking at using the same logic to justify Kirby > Tidus, assuming Alucard didn't change much from 2003 to 2004. Unfortunately, this doesn't help much, because Kirby's 2004 ranking is based off of losing to Squall, and if one thinks Kirby's was as strong in 2004 as he was in 2003 (assuming a static Alucard with the strength that I've given him based off of Ganondorf), then one has to also claim that Squall increased in strength significantly (and got SFFed to Cloud even more than we thought) which would also mean that Kain is stronger than the stats say, and that Bomberman increased from 2003 to 2004. I don't see much reason for either Squall or Bomberman to have increased, and I don't want to have to reconsider Squall vs. Magus. >_< So I'm left assuming that Kirby's 2004 strength is accurate, which makes sense, given that it's not too far below the 2003 strength he would have if I'm right about all this jazz, and is actually a fair bit above what his strength was according to the accepted 2003 X-stats. Right now, I'm thinking that Alucard, and as a result Kirby, Bomberman and a couple others I forget, were stronger than their 2003 stats suggest (although I think Alucard probably increased from 2003 to 2004 slightly). This helps to explain some stuff, but doesn't really do anything to help support any of my bracket. I am, however, still going with Kirby over Tidus right now, simply because I can't figure out any way to adjust Tidus upward from his 2004 stats (which place him below Kirby) without royally screwing up everything else, even if his 2004 standing is inexplicably lower than his 2003 standing. Right now I'm working on the assumption that Kirby increased slightly from last year (new DS game), and that Tidus, even if he wasn't as weak last year as the stats suggest and Tidus vs. Mega Man was an anomaly, still dropped significantly from 2003 (I don't think this can be denied), and may be facing another token drop this year, what with his game being less and less recent. I'm certainly not confident in my pick, though, and realize that there are many reasons to take Tidus in that match.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Yes, now go add 3% to Zelda's 2003 value (to compensate for the increase that both Link and Ganon have received). 43.12% on Mega Man.

Ganon must have received a delayed increase then because he sure didn't show any signs of one in 2004. Once again, characters are NOT joined at the hip. Link moving does not mean Ganondorf and Zelda do as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Though it really wouldn't bother me if Alucard, Kirby, Bomberman, and Ramza were even more underestimated by the 2003 stats than we thought they were. That makes Squall look even better.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Ganon must have received a delayed increase then because he sure didn't show any signs of one in 2004. Once again, characters are NOT joined at the hip. Link moving does not mean Ganondorf and Zelda do as well.

I'd think that his terrible match against Link would actually prove that they are joined at the hip more than most hero-villain pairs. Ganondorf had a very strong showing in the Villain Contest and didn't exactly do poorly in 2003, but he bombed against Link, so I think it's pretty clear that nearly all of his support comes from people who would vote for Link over him. That is to say, he doesn't have an independent fanbase. As such, if Link's fanbase shifts, Ganondorf's fanbase shifts as well. Sure, he doesn't have to get quite as big an increase as Link, but he certainly ought to benefit some from Link's increase.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Not necessarily. Link growing does not mean Ganondorf comes with him. Yes, their fanbase overlaps to a ridiculous degree, but new fans (or voters, whatever) of Link are not necessarily new fans of Ganondorf.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Which is why the increase doesn't need to be exactly the same. But still, it makes sense that new fans of Link would follow relatively similar voting patterns to old fans of Link. It's not a given, but it is a reasonable assumption.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

"Since we're playing that game. There's only two characters that MY guy will ever lose to. =D Eat it."

Go, go Sephiroth!
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Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

Oh, and my favorite character can only beat two other characters. Beat that! :-)

My favorite character is never going to make the contest. =(
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

Yeah, well.. my favorite character doesn't exist yet!
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Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

my favourite character has never lost in the first round but never makes it to the final four
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

The key didn't work, did it? I thought that might be the case. So I just invented this "Machine that Opens Doors, especially when you have a slightly bad key."

X ****ing D. How anyone can't find EarthBound funny is just beyond my understanding.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I'd just like to know, how is Zelda's 2k3 rank overrated?
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

The key didn't work, did it? I thought that might be the case. So I just invented this "Machine that Opens Doors, especially when you have a slightly bad key."

Is there some innuendo I'm not getting here? Taking it literally, it's just random and stupid.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

I agree that whoever survives Vivi/Zelda has an excellent chance of taking down Snake. I went with Vivi because I'm still a little wary of the Zelda/Lara Croft results...but we'll see.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Taking it literally, it's just random and stupid.

Which is the entire friggen point.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Ness used Psi Rockin B! 200 damage to some giant mole whose name I can't remember!

Mondo Mole?
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Well, when the parents are away... brother and sister can play...
http://www.freewebs.com/mjversion/index.htm

Guys, guys, you actually believe that Ulti isn't lying about his bracket this year? Shame on you.

Who cares about his bracket? its mine you should all be worried about :)

When is Ceej closing the brackets? I wont reveal my precious choices until then! I swear this stuff takers too long...18th cant get here soon enough...I got columns to write...kiddies to bash...fanbabies to make feel shame...

Who aint excited about all that? :)
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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Renowned Author, MK Master, Noob Basher & Fanbaby Smacker! Score: 0/0

Yeah, Mondo Mole.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Taking it literally, it's just random and stupid.

Which is the entire friggen point.

Random and stupid isn't funny 9 times out of 10. At least to me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Typos do suck.

I wanted to post in 55!!!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
Sp2k5 - 77/80 (stupid Master Hand)

Random and stupid is often-times hilarious...but Earthworm Jim pulls that off in video games alot better than Earthbound did.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Is there some innuendo I'm not getting here? Taking it literally, it's just random and stupid.

It's making fun of the fact that in RPGs, you will often obtain an item, only to have it not work, and generally have to find an alternate method of getting past an obstacle.

The whole ****ing game is a parody on RPGs...
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

It's an RPG that was made to mock other RPG's, much like how Weird Al makes songs to mock other songs.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Some people don't get that, others don't understand. Explaining it doesn't help them any, so it's best to leave it alone for the most part.
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Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

who here is bored waiting for the start of this contest so that discussions can kick start again? anyone want to have a guess at the number of brackets we'll have this year? i predict 37000 or more because of the new bracket layout
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

31735 brackets submitted.

And yep, I'm definitely getting antsy. Let's get this show on the road.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

So guys, when Mario breaks 90% on Joanna Dark, what's your reaction going to be?

<<
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

MARIO 4 PREZ!!111
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"It's actually quite emotional, standing up here with these three guys after all these years...

My reaction's gonna be: Mario really grew in strength since I'm expecting Joanna Dark to be approximately equal to Max Payne, if not a little higher.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

"So guys, when Mario breaks 90% on Joanna Dark, what's your reaction going to be?"

Hail to the king, baby!
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Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

New bracket layout actually attracts more brackets?
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

I'd love to see Joanna be equal to Max Payne, but I don't buy it too much...plus, I expect Mario to, er, "SFF" her like how Goldeneye was supposedly "SFF'd" by LoZ:OoT.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Looking at it more closely, I don't think it's feasable that Joanna avoids the tripling from Mario; if there is any SFF to account for, we've seen what Mario's done to Captain Olimar and Donkey Kong...but let's assume there's not. Max Payne would get 26.45% on Mario...I don't have anything to back me up, but I just don't see that happening.

At the same time though, so help me God if Mario gets 90% on Joanna; that'd mean she'd get 35.39% on GUYBRUSH THREEPWOOD. That would also put her well below an SFF'd pre-Pikmin 2 Captain Olimar; she'd get 43.18% on him. That'd be ridiculous.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

plus, I expect Mario to, er, "SFF" her like how Goldeneye was supposedly "SFF'd" by LoZ:OoT.

That makes no sense. Games are a different story altogether. Mario and Ms. Dark ought to have a relatively small fanbase overlap.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

And I really don't see why Joanna can't be stronger than Max Payne. I would expect Perfect Dark to be stronger than either of Max's games.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

but games=//= characters otherwise mega man games would be top 15 material.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I'm not saying Joanna will be stronger than Max. I just don't see why she couldn't be.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

With Perfect Dark as my numero uno game-o, I still find her as nothing special. The same effect as Gordon Freeman, really, except I hope she's not half the bust he is; I'm only rooting for her because that's all the PD representation we'll be seeing for awhile, most likely.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

It's not as though Max is anything special himself.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I shouldn't say it CAN'T happen...but how many people see Gordon over Max Payne now? He's got a new game since last year, too, and I doubt many people would give him a chance. Joanna, aside from a new look and hype for a game in the next generation of systems (an Xbox system, no less, heh), hasn't seen much talk for her or her games since PD came out.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

but how many people see Gordon over Max Payne now?

I really wonder about that considering how many people are seriously taking him over Leon Kennedy.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I seriously think Gordon could take Max Payne now... Maybe I'm just overestimating the effect HL2 will give him but meh.

Yeah; leave it to HL2 to get people switchin' to Mr. GFNW (which I thought about there at first, too; my hands aren't clean from that dirty dirty dirty thought of Gordon winning, either).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

For what it's worth...

2k3 - Gordon gets 46.01% on Max Payne, Sam Fisher is expected to beat GF with 66.35%.
2k4 - Gordon gets 44.57% on Sam Fisher, unadjusted Max Payne is expected to beat GF with 40.48%.

...it's weird that both Max and Sam got new games from 2k3 to 2k4, yet Gordon does so much better than expected against Sam while then bein' expected to do so much worse against Max. Also keep in mind that's unadjusted Max, who faced fellow Rockstar favorite Tommy Vercetti and was behind the Mega/Zero and Link/Mega matches...it coulda been worse of a spread.


Something just ain't right.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Yeah, Sam Fisher's 2003 number ain't right, and neither was Max's.

unadjusted Max Payne is expected to beat GF with 40.48%.

Behold the power of GFNW.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I have a feeling Joanna will break 30%. Mario has always underpreformed against "cool" characters (JC Denton aside). In fact, he's underpreformed against just about every not-nintendo character, as far as I can tell. It's not as bad as 2k2 when Servebot did quite well against him, and Joanna isn't going to do what Shadow did in 2003, but she's going to do better than most people might expect, and might be one of the stronger characters to go out in round 1.
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Festivus

Yes, GFNW is strong...

...unadjusted Max Payne is expected to beat GF with 59.52%'s what I meant, heh.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

I'll eat a shoe if she finishes with over 30%; that'd put her over Bomberman. I know you're considering an under-performance by Mario, but that's a very questionable theory and I don't buy it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too