hey didn't we get a digimon character in the contest once? if so how'd he get in i forgot if the games or anime came out first
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Reno > Tifa > Aeris
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/10/2005 4:14:35 PM | Message Detail
Auron = Magus

What does that have to do with Vivi vs. Zelda? We don't even know if that's quite true, and even if it is, it doesn't tell us anything about Vivi or Zelda.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

so by that logic auron>ganondorf since magus>ganondorf
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Speak for yourself, MM. You're among the minority, according to what I've seen. And to call Tifa's personality cliche only says that you really don't remember anything about FFVII. As DC said, her not getting in the contest AGAIN, after all the supposed whining when she didn't make it last year, speaks volumes. Aeris' popularity has certainly dropped, while Tifa's rises with each new FFVII player (I know this is an exaggeration, but you get my point).
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!

Okay, fine, Aeris' popularity may have dropped. I'll certainly give you that. But I thought we were arguing based on 2K3 Aeris... Maybe Tifa is more popular NOW, but I don't think she is stronger than Aeris was.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

In the same way HM's saying it's likely that Vincent > Tifa > Aeris (by using both the GameFAQs poll and that one other poll from an FF-dedicated site), I'm saying Tifa > Aeris. Vincent, I'm still cautious about.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Aeris didn't make it because she's not popular? Brilliant argument to use when we're talking about Tifa.
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"The strong men take everything and the weak men die." ~ Luca Blight, Suikoden II

What does that have to do with Vivi vs. Zelda? We don't even know if that's quite true, and even if it is, it doesn't tell us anything about Vivi or Zelda.

It was a random thought of mine.

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A E I OWN U

Aeris didn't make it because she's not popular? Brilliant argument to use when we're talking about Tifa.

Then there's that. :P
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I couldn't say if she's stronger NOW than Aeris was THEN. It's hard to compare, seeing as all Square characters have dropped since 2003. However, I think that she can give Sonic a harder time than Aeris did. She can even win that. As brave as that sounds.
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!

And I actually think Ganondorf would win in a Magus/Ganondorf rematch. >,>

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A E I OWN U

I couldn't say if she's stronger NOW than Aeris was THEN. It's hard to compare, seeing as all Square characters have dropped since 2003. However, I think that she can give Sonic a harder time than Aeris did. She can even win that. As brave as that sounds.

Well then you are saying she is stronger than Aeris was when she faced Sonic, which I completely disagree with.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

If she gets a Tina Armstrong-esque pic, maybe she can beat Sonic >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

I'd be more inclined to say that if she got a Tina Armstrong-esque pic, maybe she could perform almost as well as Aeris did on Sonic.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Remember that Sonic is not static, either. I couldn't compare characters in different periods of time. However, had Tifa been in Aeris' place in 2003, she would've done better against Sonic, I'm sure of it. I think she would have still lost. This year, she has more of a chance to win, depending on how big the Advent Children factor is.
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*** Support Tifa Lockheart in the Summer Contest 2005 ***
Thanks to everyone who helped her get in!

Both of those posts were extremely subjective. Sure Aeris may be more important STORYWISE, but let's not forget about Tifa throughout the rest of the game. You have her in your party for a MUCH longer time, and is much more memorable in battle. Didn't say better mind you (sure Aeris may have better higher level limits and whatnot, but how many people are likely to actually build her up that much? Especially since she ends up *SPOILED* anyways. <_<

But speaking of the *spoilers*


I didn't even think that much of it. I didn't even think Aeris died. She looked like a freaking doll during that whole thing. She showed zero emotion when she got stabbed. No scream... no yell. Nothing. She even kept the same SMILE on during the FMV. And since FFVII was out around the same time as Star Wars Special Edition, I would naturally think she did that on purpose and was going to show back up later in the game. Once I saw that she was actually DEAD, it didn't make me like her anymore or make her stand out more. The thing that stuck to me the most was "that was a poorly done death scene", and "her music is just a ripoff of Aria de Mezzo Caraterre from FFVI". <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Well then you are saying she is stronger than Aeris was when she faced Sonic, which I completely disagree with.

I think Tifa would have done just as well as Aeris did against Sonic had she been in that spot. I don't think Aeris dropped in popularity since then. I think a big reason why she was nominated in 2k3 was because she was ALREADY in the contest in 2k2. So she most likely got more automatic nomination from FFVII fans in addition to Tifa nominations. Tifa was probably just capped out. We will never know unless we saw nomination statistics. But I would bet that 2k2 was a big reason we saw Aeris the next year. Plug in Tifa in that spot and I'm confident that Tifa would have been nominated in the next year.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Aeris was alive... in spirit.

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A E I OWN U

So how much does vote rallying actually help?

StarCraft had 6% of the votes in this poll last night:

http://www.tsncentral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1562

Now it has ten times that percentage, and likely received about 20,000 votes from outside help (links were posted on teamliquid, wgtour, and gosugamers).
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Think fast. Click faster.

Speaking of Vote-Rallying...

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/629/629401p6.html

I hope you all remember to vote for Solid Snake.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

So how much does vote rallying actually help?

StarCraft had 6% of the votes in this poll last night:

http://www.tsncentral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1562

Now it has ten times that percentage, and likely received about 20,000 votes from outside help (links were posted on teamliquid, wgtour, and gosugamers).

Well you have to keep in mind that Starcraft probably has the biggest community of fansites of any game... And I really, really doubt they care about Kerrigan too much. I mean, I remember when links got posted to Starcraft vs SSBM, a lot of people commented that they like SSBM also, and either didn't vote, or voted for Smash Bros. But I've been out of the community for a few months now, so I don't know how they feel about the characters. I don't remember anyone ever caring though.

Speaking of Vote-Rallying...

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/629/629401p6.html

I hope you all remember to vote for Solid Snake.

:(

Goku lost.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I happen to be somewhat of an Aeris fan myself. I'm the type of RPG player who always likes to have a very dedicated white mage. For disk 1, Aeris fit the bill perfectly. I also built up her limit breaks to the max by choosing my attacks carefully, which allowed her to get the last hit on lots of enemies. I ended up getting to use Great Gospel once, on the moving wall boss in the Temple of the Ancients, and it kicked ass. The fight was over so quickly. It was a shame she spoilers.

As for Tifa, I hardly cared for her at all. For me, she sucked in battle, and I ditched her as soon as I could. I did not really like it when she became the party leader for a while.

Vincent I cared even less for. I got him, of course, like any 100% RPGer would do, but not once did I ever put him in my party after my first playthrough.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Goku over Ryu is bull@#$!.

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A E I OWN U

Indeed. Ryu is the prime Badass, behind Cody.
~~~
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie

Goku over Ryu is bull@#$!.

That may be true, but Dante over Goku is even worse.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

I wonder how many votes that IGN thing gets.... Kratos did pretty well against Dante in it.
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Festivus

You guys should be throwing WTF flags at KOS-MOS getting beaten by Kain....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

And Solid Snake vs. Naked Snake was the closest match in that entire contest o.O
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Festivus

You guys should be throwing WTF flags at KOS-MOS getting beaten by Kain....

I would, but I'm too busy grinning at the results.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

Blowing up planets and what not should be reserved for villians with purpose and evil penguins.

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A E I OWN U

Well you have to keep in mind that Starcraft probably has the biggest community of fansites of any game... And I really, really doubt they care about Kerrigan too much.

I said the same thing about Diablo. While they may or may not care that much for him, they certainly ain't afraid to support 'em.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

"So, unless Aeris' fans choose to remain silent for whatever reason,"

Well, you haven't seen me argue about it, have you? If all Aeris fans are like me then we're usually content to sit back and watch what happens before openning our mouths and making us look dumb like some people.
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Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

About Solid potentially benefitting from bracket-votes more than most characters:




--In 2k2, Solid Snake was a 2-seed. He first faced Squall, where he got 65.43% (83.88% of the brackets backed him up). He then faced the 7-seed Knuckles, where he got 60.71% (76.18% backed him up). In the Sweet Sixteen, Solid faced the 11-seed Aeris and got 56.54% (67.51% backed him up). In the Elite Eight, Solid lost to the 5-seed Crono, though he still got 47.07% on him. While we don't know what percentage of people backed him up against Crono, if memory serves me right, I believe CJayC said Solid Snake was the second most-favored to win the contest (only behind Mario)...so his number was likely high. There were about 17,000 brackets for that contest.
--In 2k3, Solid Snake was a 1-seed. He first faced/SFF'd Raiden, where he got 82.88% (92.56% of the brackets backed him up). He then faced the 8-seed Knuckles, where he got 63.13% (79.7% backed him up). In the Sweet Sixteen, Solid faced the 5-seed Ryu and got 57.26% (65.68% backed him up). In the Elite Eight, Solid lost to the 2-seed Mega Man, though he still got 46.5% on him. While we don't know what percentage of people backed him up against Mega Man, 2k3 was the year CJayC released a list of which characters had the most brackets picking them to win...if memory serves me right, Solid was very high on the list (I know Link and Sephiroth were above him, and probably another two or three). There were about 41,000 brackets entered for that contest.
--In 2k4, Solid Snake was a 2-seed. He first faced/man-raped Tanner, where he got 94.3% (97.27% of the brackets backed him up). He then faced the 10-seed Knuckles, where he got 59.54% (68.18% backed him up). In the Sweet Sixteen, Solid faced the 6-seed Frog and got 51.39% (50.43% backed him up). In the Elite Eight, Solid lost to the 1-seed Mega Man, though he still got 42.81% on him. There were about 33,000 brackets entered for that contest.


Okay...so let's look at Knuckles and Mega Man, since Solid has faced them both more than once (and, conveniently enough, even in the same rounds). We'll start with Knuckles:

2k2: 2-seed Solid faced the 7-seed Knuckles and got 60.71% (76.18% backed him up).
2k3: 1-seed Solid faced the 8-seed Knuckles and got 63.13% (79.7% backed him up).
2k4: 2-seed Solid faced the 10-seed Knuckles and got 59.54% (68.18% backed him up).

While there's not an exact correlation, Solid did noticably better against Knuckles when his prediction rate to get to the Sweet Sixteen was at its highest. He also did his worst by over a lil' more than a full point when his prediction rate was at its lowest. It's interesting to see how Solid, who had already beaten both a 7-seed and an 8-seed Knuckles as a 2-seed and 1-seed (respectively), got his lowest prediction rate and score as a 2-seed against a 10-seed Knuckles (who wasn't even favored to make it to the second round). Whether that should be blamed on the poll placement, Kefka, bracket-voters, or anything else, it's hard to tell.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

2k3: 1-seed Solid faced the 2-seed Mega Man and got 46.5% (14.53% had Mega Man getting to the Final Four).
2k4: 2-seed Solid faced the 1-seed Mega Man and got 42.81% (31.34% had Mega Man getting to the Final Four).

Mega Man more than doubled his prediction rate against Solid in one year, whereas Solid went down in his prediction rate against Knuckles after beating him for two years straight. One could say the seeds being switched in Mega Man's favor helped his cause, which wouldn't be wrong...but that can't be the whole truth of this, either. Using estimates, about 5,957 brackets had Mega Man beating Solid Snake in 2k3; using estimates again, about 10,342 brackets had Mega Man beating Solid Snake in 2k4. That's about a 4,385 difference in brackets changing from Solid to MM. While we don't know how many of those brackets had Solid in 2k3 then changed to MM in 2k4, we do know that there is a big change there. It would also seem almost obvious that the ones who did change changed it because they want to win...and people who want to win are more likely to bracket-vote. Also keep in mind that 2k4 had many more people still contending for prizes at the point of Mega/Solid than 2k3 did, so bracket-voting was likely more tempting then.

Now, Solid lost to Mega Man in 2k3 by 8,317 votes...in 2k4, Solid lost to him by 19,259. That's a difference of 10,942, which more than doubles the 4,385 bracket-difference that supported MM from 2k3 to 2k4. Comparing votes to brackets is like comparing apples and oranges, too, so it's unlikely that even 4,000 of that 4,385 number voted for Mega Man; even for people who aim to win (like me, for example) and may have been part of that 4,385 difference, not everybody bracket-votes...and I doubt that 10 out of every 11 people, even out of that particular sample, take the contest so seriously that they'd bracket-vote. Plus, to add on top of that, we don't know if the bracket-voters honestly do like Solid/Mega more or not.

Now, I wouldn't dismiss the chance of 2,500-3,000 of that 4,385 voting for Mega Man, however; if we used the more extreme 3,000 and said they all bracket-voted for Mega Man (let's assume they all like Solid more than MM, too, for this case), then, by my super-human power of taking away and giving imaginary votes here, Mega Man should have won by 13,259 votes and had 53.77% on Solid Snake (only .27% off from what he got on Solid in 2k3).


This theory has its pro's and con's thus far just from those two comparisons of opponents Solid has faced more than once before...so let's look at other opponents he's only faced once before:

Squall: went from losing in the first round getting 34.57% on Solid in 2k2 to beating Jill and Luigi so he could respectably bow out with 41.8% on post-MP Samus. Keep in mind KH and/or the large turn-out for the 2k3 contest helped his cause.
Aeris: I believe RPGuy's the one with the numbers to prove this, as I don't remember the numbers he used...but Aeris gained some from 2k2 to 2k3, although minimally. Keep in mind KH and/or the large turn-out for the 2k3 contest helped her cause.
Crono: each year has Crono being able to beat Solid Snake more and more decisively...more because Crono tends to gain than Solid losing bracket-voters for his cause, probably.
Raiden: again, SFF'd, hasn't been seen since.
Ryu: he tends to stay very consistant, it seems.
Tanner: *points and laughs*
Frog: we might be able to tell something this year, but right now, we don't really have anything to get from him.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

So not much can be forced from this info to help this theory's cause, although you could argue that it was possibly compounded with Squall's and Aeris KHF to help them make the jump in the stats that they made. Afterall, they were both heavily under-seeded in 2k2 and had to face the heavily-favored Solid Snake in 2k2 (the second-most favored in the contest that year, remember); most/all bracket-votes had to go his way. However many actually bracket-voted, well, that's arguable. The rest of those matches are either useless or against this theory, it looks like.


The last thing I wanna point out is someone who I know isn't joined at the hip with Solid: Liquid Snake. However, for our purposes, I'm throwin' it out there. In 2k4, he was a 11-seed rookie facing the 6-seed rookie Frog. Despite being heavily denied by the board, Liquid only lost by 93 votes and had 55.67% of the brackets supporting him. In the Villain Contest, Liquid got 24.08% against Sephiroth...and Sephiroth had 76.51% TO WIN THE CONTEST (90.9% had him beating Liquid). Now, the entire 20XX Division is fishy, and many people don't trust the Villain Contest in general...plus it's not even Solid Snake, so you may dismiss it if you like, but it fits the theme of this theory.


So, after having analyzed this situation, I've decided that Solid Snake benefits from bracket-voters more than most characters...or, rather, at least had. Losing to Mega Man in 2k3 makes me think that was the nail in the coffin for those who backed him to win in both their brackets and their votes. However, it's not like it's a revolutionary number like I once thought it might have been; assuming my theories are on the right track, it almost certainly wouldn't have been more than 3,000 voters (or a 6,000 vote-difference) in most/any match, and Mega/Solid is the main match of focus in this theory, so that wouldn't have made much difference. However, if more than 1,215 of them actually prefered Frog over Solid...well, let's just not speak of that. =P
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

I said the same thing about Diablo. While they may or may not care that much for him, they certainly ain't afraid to support 'em.

Diablo is prominent in the main draw of his game, the online multiplayer aspect. Kerrigan is non-existant in the main draw of Starcraft's community sites, the online melee fights.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Okay, so I skipped large chunks, but a question: why was there less bracket support for Snake last year, regardless of whether it affected the voting or not?
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

I agree, but at the same time, I think Starcraft's fanbase is more dedicated than Diablo's...though I'd still take Diablo over Kerrigan.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

I agree, but at the same time, I think Starcraft's fanbase is more dedicated than Diablo's...though I'd still take Diablo over Kerrigan.

Maybe dedicated to the game (although many of them were wavering against SSBM), but I can't imagine them being too loyal to a character.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

That, I'm not entirely sure Slow. I wanna assume that him losing to Mega Man in 2k3 was a back-breaker, but I'm not sure if that was ALL it. I also tease the idea that the characters in Solid's eight-pack garnered people's faith better than his eight-pack from last year for whatever reason; I mean, Master Chief is certainly going to get brackets and Frog was the sexy pick for alot of people (not to forget that Magus surprised people), and I figure Kefka had his share of people too, despite poor performances and support in 2k3...but at the same time, I'd assume Ryu, Dante, and Yuna would total to be as strong or stronger than Kefka, MC, and Frog. I've skipped Raiden and Liquid in this due to SFF and how people tend to generally get those matches more often.

So, I don't know, exactly...my best guess is the Solid/Mega 2k3 match cost him that bracket-advantage.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too

Well, maybe he DID lose in popularity, too. Brackets and popularity can be joined at the hip for several reasons.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth

Oh, for anyone interested, according to alexa.com, about .2% of people on the internet go to gamefaqs.com a day.

In contrast, wgtour.com, the biggest Starcraft site that fits the bill for what we need in terms of vote rallying, has about .002% of all people on the internet visit their site.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Fluctuations in bracket percentages may be just as telling of changes in popularity as trying to compare extrapolated percentages, and may actually be of more use in certain scenarios. Then again, it might just be indicative of how many people looked at previous contests when making their brackets.

What percentage of brackets had Link winning the whole contest each year? I imagine that it grew from 2002 to 2003 (because of people assuming that there wouldn't be any drastic changes in popularity). But did it grow from 2003 to 2004? If it did, could it be significant?

On a slightly different note, I think that a full investigation wouldn't suggest that Snake benefits more from bracket voting, but rather that he simply benefits and that other characters do as well. If this is the case, then -- assuming that the method of calculating the extrapolated statistics is for the most part going to be accurate -- that bracket votes should be removed prior to calculation. I think that this is actually of greater importance than trying to calculate SFF (some of which may actually be the result of bracket voting instead! Look at Link vs Ganondorf's prediction percentage...).
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Think fast. Click faster.

And for anyone interested, about 30% of people on the internet visit yahoo.com, the most visited site on the web.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Yaoyuan.com is actually the biggest StarCraft site. ;)
---
Think fast. Click faster.

Oh and Dabu, about that poll where there was a massive jump in Starcraft's lead, there is suspicion that someone cheated, from what I've read.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Oh yeah, I didn't think to check that, since I never personally visited it.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Well, change that .002% to a whopping .005%. >>;
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

So one out of every 500 people is a nerd...suh-weet. =P

In 2k2, Link had 12.77% support him for the win. In 2k3, I think CJay's list made it look like about 42% backed him for the win. Then, in 2k4, 35.39% took him to be a two-time champion.


As for Solid, I'll now concede that he is probably like anybody else, but I think that 2k2 and 2k3 got him bracket-voters, moreso than other characters. Why him? I don't know, but it seemed like he was that "chosen one" until Solid/Mega 2k3.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too