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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 153
From: Tai | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:00:42 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:02:40 PM | Message Detail
I saw that post Tai.

Final answer, indeed.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Tai | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:03:38 PM | Message Detail
Wait..actually, that actually might make Alucard stronger than Squall if Bomberman decreased, because only doing .30% less against a better character seems like an increase. Unless you think, again, Alucard > or = Squall...
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:04:54 PM | Message Detail
Wouldnt FFVII/Castlevania:SOTN SFF make sense? They came out less than two months away from each other on the same system.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Tai | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:05:53 PM | Message Detail
Wouldnt FFVII/Castlevania:SOTN SFF make sense? They came out less than two months away from each other on the same system.

...........................You have got to be kidding.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (194 Signs!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:06:11 PM | Message Detail
Wait..actually, that actually might make Alucard stronger than Squall if Bomberman decreased, because only doing .30% less against a better character seems like an increase. Unless you think, again, Alucard > or = Squall...

Yeah, how 'bout looking at their performances against Kirby? That should tell you the story.

I can agree with the idea that Square characters do better the higher the vote totals go. Vote totals do have some effect on the stats, though it's impossible to measure.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:06:30 PM | Message Detail
People think there is Mega Man/Link SFF or FFVII/MGS SFF. This makes more sense than either of those.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:07:59 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, we might need part 154 soon.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:09:20 PM | Message Detail
FFVII seems to overperform on stuff on the PS1. FFVII crushed Suikoden II, MGS, and Xenogears in the Games contest, Sephiroth pounded Liquid like he never should've, and Sephiroth also overperformed on Alucard.

It's not impossible. =[
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:09:45 PM | Message Detail
O_o

Good lord no.

Look, SFF happens in every match. It's opportunity cost. You can only vote for one person, and a lot of people may happen to like one more than the other, and it compounds.

In that manner, SFF happens in every match, to varying levels of magnitude.

That's the problem with SFF in the first place, and with the X-Stats, and with SFF matches.

But to assume that everything is greatly affected by SFF, well that's silly.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:10:35 PM | Message Detail
...one more than the other, when they would normally vote for the other aswell*

^^^
Whoops.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Tai | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:11:10 PM | Message Detail
Man, anyways:

2K3: Alucard got 52.21% on Kirby.
2K4: Squall got 55.01% on Kirby.

What would Squall be projected to get on Alucard based off this?
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (194 Signs!)
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:11:18 PM | Message Detail
But I dont see how two games which seem to have overlapping fanbases to a fairly large degree, came out on the same system, and came out WITHIN one month of each other could have a degree of SFF more severe than most cases outside of the same franchises.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:11:33 PM | Message Detail
I'll go ahead and make part 154.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:13:49 PM | Message Detail
that should be couldn't have a degree of SFF
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:15:38 PM | Message Detail
But they don't seem to have hugely over lapping fanbases to me :(

All I'm, saying <_<
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:24:43 PM | Message Detail
Tidus
Shadow
Crash*
Knuckles**
Snake
Scorpion**^
Sephiroth
Dante**
Ratchet
Jill Valentine
Sam Fisher
Gordon Freeman
Lara Croft


These are all the characters who had a noticeable decrease between 2003 and 2004. What do almost all of them have in common? With the exception fo Shadow, Sam, and Gordon they are all characters that would benefit from a PS2-friendly casual-heavy group of voters. A group of voters which we most likely lost due the change in the poll placement and now smaller poll numbers. Shadow's decrease can be attributed to him overperforming against Mario and even Sam and Gordon appeal to casual voters. Plus, hype for Half-Life was down when compared to the year before, oddly enough. Now I know this is nothing foolproof, but when you look at the characters that decreased last year, I really think that a pattern begins to emerge.

On a site as RPG-biased on GameFAQS, I fail to see how a loss in casual voters could not affect New-School characters in some negative way, considering these are the characters that would appeal most to a casual RPG crowd.

And as for Alucard over Squall, weirder things have happened.

*Unsure of his placement due to the Frog/MC/Snake debacle
**I know that all of these characters decreased, but I'm not sure if it was by a significant amount
^Unsure of his placement due to Auron/Sephiroth
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:27:55 PM | Message Detail
I count two Square characters on that list.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:32:41 PM | Message Detail
I count two Square characters on that list.

Well yeah, but those two are the only ones beside Cloud that weren't involved in some anomaly in either 2003 or 2004.

And I am only talking about New-School Square characters.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:35:28 PM | Message Detail
Well yeah, but those two are the only ones beside Cloud that weren't involved in some anomaly in either 2003 or 2004.

Crap. Poor wording since I didn't count Tidus.

Change this to:

Well yeah, but those two are the only ones beside Cloud that weren't involved in some possible SFF match in either 2003 or 2004.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:39:38 PM | Message Detail
Okay... Finally caught up after Dennis knocked my power out for a day (how? I have no idea... It's not THAT bad in Miami. I went out last night and everything. The city is normal except for some branches and limbs down and stuff. But for some reason, MY sector had to lose power.)

Anyways, I agree with a lot that RPGuy had to say in regards to Luigi. I actually thought the same thing about those same matches (Cloud going through Bowser like he did). I just am too lazy to go and try to dig up numbers to support it. After going through a Computer & Electrical Engineering cirriculum, I'm kind of sick of seeing numbers <_<. Anyways, I think Luigi may be slightly underrated, which is why I would pick him in a projected close match (like KOS-MOS). I think you're underestimating Tifa though. She's out of Luigi's league. I personally don't see how the "spoiler" would make Aeris significantly more popular than Tifa....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:44:27 PM | Message Detail
I'm willing to believe a lot of that Luigi analysis, but the fact that I think that Tifa is stronger than Aeris keeps me from making that upset pick.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:47:08 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, if Tifa is stronger or even fairly close to Aeris I'm in trouble.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:52:23 PM | Message Detail
Why wouldn't Tifa at least be fairly close to Aeris? That's what I want to know.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:53:53 PM | Message Detail
I just spent three and a half pages talking about Luigi. I'm not doing the other half of that match. Not tonight, at least.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:56:01 PM | Message Detail
FFVII seems to overperform on stuff on the PS1. FFVII crushed Suikoden II, MGS, and Xenogears in the Games contest, Sephiroth pounded Liquid like he never should've, and Sephiroth also overperformed on Alucard.

Believe it or not, that does make some sense. It may not be "SFF," but it does seem like Final Fantasy VII kills stuff from the PS1 era more brutally than one might imagine.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:58:07 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I may be overestimating Tifa and Vincent, but my whole logic is based on what I think of Aeris. Being that I think Aeris is likeable but nowhere NEAR as liked as Tifa and Vincent (relatively, of course). And seeing how STRONG Aeris is in this contest, I would think that was the power of FF7 behind her. Not saying she ISN'T liked... My whole philosophy is that if Aeris is that strong, Vincent and Tifa MUST be stronger.

Of course if I'm underestimating how popular Aeris is to the FF7 fans, then I'm screwed. I can see if Vincent gets NO support from casuals for being an optional character, but in my eyes, Tifa has NO excuse for not being at LEAST at Aeris's strength. But I like to trust myself in my opinions. Unless it's something that I completely have no idea about (Starcraft), I generally am in touch with most of the character's fanbases.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/9/2005 4:59:07 PM | Message Detail
I cannot imagine a scenario where Tifa isn't very close to Aeris. The spoiler was nice and big, yes, but Tifa appears earlier than Aeris and stays throughout the entire game. I can understand thinking Tifa would be weaker than Aeris, but only slightly. I would expect her to be stronger, myself.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:04:17 PM | Message Detail
Believe it or not, that does make some sense. It may not be "SFF," but it does seem like Final Fantasy VII kills stuff from the PS1 era more brutally than one might imagine.

Which is why we REALLY needed to have mixed brackets in the game contest. I really dislike having to depend on the strength of an entire generation of games based on how one game from that generation held up against another generation.

I can't possibly see how Sonic the Hedgehog 2 could be that weak. I don't believe in Sonic/Mario generational SFF, but I think that Super Mario World is a game that is undoubtedly seen as a more popular game AND better game back then so of course voters would vote as such. I highly doubt that the GTAs, Halos, and KOTORs would beat it by the margin that the stats say they would (if they could even beat it at all). And I have a hard time believing that the 8-bit division would hold up like the stats say they would. I think those games are just lucky that Super Mario Bros 3. can stand up against other generations. Just my point of view on the spring contest.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:07:48 PM | Message Detail
^ IT meaning Sonic the Hedgehog 2. I might have been confusing with that. But seeing how the stats of that contests are solely based on how popular games are RELATIVE to other games in it's generation and then depending on how the top game from that generation holds up against another generation, I'm kind of wary on how the stats end up in that contest.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:32:10 PM | Message Detail
No, HM. Aeris is in the introductory FMV, and so is released upon the player first.

:P
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:33:12 PM | Message Detail
She also sells Cloud the flower before you meet Tifa for the first time, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:35:31 PM | Message Detail
No, HM. Aeris is in the introductory FMV, and so is released upon the player first.

Shut it. No one knew who she was then. Although I must say... no, I'll refrain. =p

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:36:13 PM | Message Detail
Hey, she only sells Mr. Strife that flower if he selects the correct answer.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:36:28 PM | Message Detail
:P :P :P
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:38:24 PM | Message Detail
Though you'd be dumb not to buy the flower because then you miss out on the chance to flirt with Tifa/Marlene.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:39:21 PM | Message Detail
Who doesn't want to flirt with Marlene? That's the true question.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:40:26 PM | Message Detail
[Insert Michael Jackson joke here]

Well at least we got that out of the way without anyone posting an MJ joke thinking it was funny ^_^
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:45:40 PM | Message Detail
Hey, you know who's gonna kick Squall's and Vincent's asses?

Magus.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:48:01 PM | Message Detail
Actually, the answer is Crono and Squall, respectively.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 5:50:32 PM | Message Detail
Yeah? I think you misunderstood. Magus will beat Squall, and then Vincent. After that, he goes out like a light in a super uncool SFF match against a super-average character.

So it's like Crono beat Squall and Vincent, but really it was Magus.

Yeah.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:13:16 PM | Message Detail
Actually, Crono will beat Squall, who'll beat Magus and Terra.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:16:02 PM | Message Detail
Yeah? You're still confused.

And Terra is losing to that super-cool, super-suave Dante fellow.

Yeah.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:22:17 PM | Message Detail
You're the one who's confused.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:32:56 PM | Message Detail
People keep saying that the board overrates Magus, but people outside of this board and the FF8 fanbasdon't exactly like Squall very much. If KHF is truly wearing off and the Square characters are slowly returning to their 2002 values like RPGuy suggests (one of the best analyses I've ever read in this topic, by the way), Squall is in some serious trouble.

Now mind you, we've never seen a new Square hero versus an old Square non-hero, so the SFF in this match will be difficult to place. But Squall has an uphill climb regardless.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:33:17 PM | Message Detail
*fanbase don't

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:35:05 PM | Message Detail
Squall's not dropping down that far, you can rest assured.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:36:40 PM | Message Detail
Squall can go no lower; he's already bottom of the barrel.

...

Oh, we're talking about the contest?
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:37:46 PM | Message Detail
Squall doesnt need to drop. He just doesnt need to be any stronger than it appears in the stats. I cant buy Magus being that much weaker when there is a reason for Alucard to seem weaker in 2003 and thus Ganondorf's 2004 strength looks good.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/9/2005 6:40:10 PM | Message Detail
Also I know this a bit foreward thinking, but I really cant help it. How high in the Noble Nine could 'Dorf get in 2006?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
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