Luigi: A Case Study
(Or "And you Thought Heroic Mario's Arguments Were Long?")

(3) Luigi - 74.54%
(14) Ratchet - 25.46%

Fairly typical tripling of a lesser known character. Ratchet only has one other match, in which he got 20% on Dante. There's nothing much to say about this or Ratchet's other match.

(6) Squall Leonhart - 60.21%
(3) Luigi - 39.79%

One of the single biggest upsets in GameFAQ's history. 2k3 was Square's year -- the only close matches lost were Ganondorf/Tidus and the highly suspect Mario/Crono. In this particular Nintendo/Square, Squall pounded Luigi into the ground nearly as bad as he beat Jill Valentine in the highest voted non-Noble Nine poll ever. This is the match that most disproves my theory that Luigi is considerably stronger than the XS give him credit, but there are oddities. The high vote total. The resurgence of Square as a contest force, particularly Squall. And the two matches that followed this one.

(2) Samus Aran - 58.20%
(6) Squall Leonhart - 41.80%

A very respectable showing for Squall against a strong, Noble Nine member. But where on the Noble Nine does Samus place?

(1) Link - 62.06%
(2) Samus Aran - 37.94%

Super Metroid came out in, what, 1995? Makes sense that people were incredibly surprised that Samus beat Sonic by 37 votes and got 48% on Sephiroth in 2002. That same Sephiroth went on to get 43% on Link in a highly suspect match, which led to Samus' 2k2 extrapolated value on Link: 41.07%. In November of 2002, one of the most successfull GameCube games debuts: Metroid Prime, starring Samus in her first game in nearly a decade. Then along comes this match, and Samus does over 3% worse than expected.

Huh?

Not only did Samus do worse, but so did Mega Man, Sonic, Ryu, and Ken. Namely, most of the non-Square returning West Division entrants. Thus, the West Division Factor was born: Sephiroth, for some reason, did better on Link than he should have. If we take that into account, Samus' 2k2 and 2k3 values nearly line up.

Huh?

Metroid Prime did nothing? Well, fine, maybe. Until 2k3, when Samus was revealed to be the 4th strongest member of the Noble Nine, perhaps even capable of challenging Clinkeroth. That boost had to come from somewhere, and all she had that year was a remake of the original Metroid on the GBA.

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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

SFF?

So I looked at Link/Samus the same way I looked at the WDF: least square differences. The problem was that Squall and Luigi were behind SFF, and Crash was behind the WDF, Jill's suspect match with Ryu Hayabusa and the subsequent bombing of Hayabusa against Sora in a decidedly Squall/Luigi fashion.

In short, there isn't much data to work with, and what is there suggests that Samus suffered 1.75% of SFF against Link, bumping her extrapolated value up to 39.69%. And, since this is obstensibly about Luigi, it bumps his value up to 26.41%, from 25.34%. (Hint: Squall>Magus fans: Squall is at 33.18% using this analysis).

But that's enough about 2k3. Let's move on to the next year.

(4) Luigi - 67.73%
(13) Pac-Man - 32.27%

This is a fairly innocent match on the surface. By 2k3 stats, Luigi was supposed to do even better: 68.86%, to be specific. Until you consider these three matches, that is:

(12) Kefka - 50.95%
(5) Pac-Man - 49.05%

(4) Crono - 78.92%
(12) Kefka - 21.08%

(10) Knuckles the Echidna - 57.46%
(7) Kefka - 42.54%

Knuckles is, according to the stats, a good deal stronger than Luigi. Kefka is, according to the stats, nearly equal to Pac-Man. So why in the world did Luigi do over 10% on Pac-Man than Knuckles did on Kefka?

Could...Luigi be...stronger than Knuckles?

The world may never know, or at least it won't know until Luigi/KOS-MOS or Luigi/Tifa, because of the next string of coincidences.

(5) Yoshi - 54.48%
(4) Luigi - 45.52%

Well, Luigi lost to Yoshi, there's not a whole lot of room for SFF, Yoshi isn't all that strong, so Luigi is weak. To quote Amazing Telephone, time for some pie.

Not so fast.

(4) Bowser - 56.34%
(5) Yoshi - 43.66%
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Now, there certainly is room for SFF here, but not a whole lot. However, when you combine this match with the above one, though there is a distinct possibility that Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi are much closer to each other than the XS would have you believe. Do you need more reasons? The next matches will provide them.

(1) Cloud Strife - 70.03%
(5) Bowser - 29.97%

In 2k3, Cloud was on a roll. After demolishing CATS, and SFFing Auron, he tore Bowser a new one and doubled a fellow Noble Niner in Sonic, before edging out Link and letting Sephiroth come surprisingly close in the final match. This particular match featured Cloud in all his FFVII character model glory against a Super Mario Bros. 1 sprite of Bowser grinning stupidly.

What happened to Sonic after being doubled by Cloud? He bounced back in 2k4, nearly reaching his WDF adjusted 2k2 value. Zero? Despite being set up against Mega Man and possibly SFF'd, 20XXDF Zero is stronger than his 2k3 version. Master Chief? Much stronger in 2k4. Sora, Ness? Though both victims of SFF, they turned out out stronger than most of us ever thought.

And Bowser? He couldn't prove his strength in 2k4, due to being set up against Mario, though he did beat Guybrush worse than expected. It took until the Spring to confirm that he was indeed stronger than expected.

(1) Sephiroth - 59.55%
(1) Bowser - 40.45%

Look at this match, then look at the match above, and there's something wrong. Bowser did 10% better on Sephiroth than Cloud, right after Sephiroth downright demolished Liquid Snake. Is it possible that all that was a boost that Bowser received post-SC2k3 to now? Of course. Is it possible that Bowser was around this strength in 2k3, but Cloud tore into him just like he tore into the rest of his opponents up to and including Link? That's what I think.

So what would that mean? Let's (finally) get back to Yoshi and Luigi. If Bowser was stronger in 2k3, then so was Yoshi, potentially even more so because of SFF. But that was in 2k3: why does that matter in 2k4?

(1) Link - 81.74%
(5) Yoshi - 18.26%

Because Uber-Link decided to flat out destroy Yoshi, that's why. Link's 2k4 path is oddly reminiscent of Cloud's 2k3 path: he destroyed CATS, SFF'd Ganondorf to point where he looked worse than CATS, then manhandled Yoshi, decisively beat a Crono who had finally decisively beaten Mario, and doubled Mega Man, before letting Cloud come oddly close.

But we're only concerned with Yoshi here. Like all other SFF adjustments, Yoshi was simply given his 2k3 value, no questions asked. And so Luigi was made out to be even weaker than he was in 2k3, despite everything I have said.

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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

I'm just about out of data to discuss, having brought up half the matches in contest history, so let's hit the conclusion. It should be fairly obvious: I think Luigi is a great deal stronger than 25.24% . How much stronger?

I don't know. It's damned near impossible to pinpoint an exact number with so many weird circumstances, so I'll give a range. For Bowser, 33-35%. For Yoshi, 30-32%. For Luigi, 27-30%.

Now, obviously I wouldn't have done this if I thought Luigi's contest path was cut and dry: a win aganist KOS-MOS and a loss to Tifa. I have Luigi over Tifa Lockheart, and I consider it to be my riskiest upset, and the one that will pay off the most if I'm right.

2k2 Cloud: 42.99%?
2k3 Cloud: 51.67%
2k4 Cloud: 51.67%

2k2 Sephiroth: 39.08%?
2k3 Sephiroth: 49.71%
2k4 Sephiroth: 46.56%
Sp2k5 Sephiroth: 42.48%?

2k2 Aeris: 29.74%
2k3 Aeris: 32.81%

Something happened in 2k3 that gave massive boosts to all new school Square characters. There is evidence that this might be wearing off for everyone except Cloud, though Sephiroth is the most extreme example, and new school Square characters are approaching their 2k2 values. I would venture to guess that Aeris would beat Tifa in a Yoshi/Luigi fashion: the most poignant moment by far in FFVII is the spoiler scene, and I think Aeris benefits a great deal from her role in it. As such, I'd guess Tifa's range to be 28-31%; floating around 2k2 Aeris, more or less.

And that's enough of an overlap for me to pick Luigi over Tifa. I don't think I'll change many people's minds with this analysis; FFVII is seen as far too strong, and memories of Squall/Luigi still to recent. I just wanted to put forth my viewpoint on the matter.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Hehe. Another fellow user with Luigi Mario over Tifa Lockheart. Oh, and RPGuy, another thing to add to Squall Leonhart's destruction of Luigi Mario ... that also happened to be the Kingdom Hearts year, where Squall might have received a significant boost from the game like Cloud Strife and Sephiroth did.

If you already pointed that out, though ... meh.
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The Metal Gear Master
This Winter ... the S3 has you ...

I only have one thing to do...

*Points to sig*

///
*Has KOS-MOS > Luigi*

Somebody takes his stats very seriously...
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"Her name is Mrs. Hutchinson, but I call her 'The Mighty Sumo'." - Iqbal
Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix.

I don't agree with the idea of Luigi being that strong or Tifa being weaker than Aeris, but I applaud you on that analysis RPGuy. That was a damn fine job.

Best justification of a pick I have seen since the bracket was released.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Future, can you stop addressing Luigi by "Luigi Mario"? It's beginning to irritate me. And "Ganondorf Dragmire" isn't too hot either. I don't mind the others so much, but seeing a Nintendo character's last name tagged onto everything is pretty damn annoying. >_>

Anyway, Squall's face is enough to put away the DBZ fanboy within me. Unless I happen to play Chrono Trigger that week.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

Sorry ... I will try to stop, but it has become a habit ...
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The Metal Gear Master
This Winter ... the S3 has you ...

a win aganist KOS-MOS

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!

...Okay, so I'm overconfident in an unlikely upset that I have in my bracket >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Hehe. Another fellow user with Luigi Mario over Tifa Lockheart. Oh, and RPGuy, another thing to add to Squall Leonhart's destruction of Luigi Mario ... that also happened to be the Kingdom Hearts year, where Squall might have received a significant boost from the game like Cloud Strife and Sephiroth did.

I didn't point out KH by name, but I do think it was a major factor in the resurgence of Square in 2k3, which I mentioned a few times. However, I agree with the people (therealmnm in particular) who say that there was more to the Square boost than just that single game.

Metroid Prime did nothing? Well, fine, maybe. Until 2k4, when Samus was revealed to be the 4th strongest member of the Noble Nine, perhaps even capable of challenging Clinkeroth. That boost had to come from somewhere, and all she had that year was a remake of the original Metroid on the GBA.

Whoops.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Thanks. =D
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

So why in the world did Luigi do over 10% on Pac-Man than Knuckles did on Kefka?

Overperformance. Pac-Man relies almost entirely on casual appeal, and you put him against somebody nearly as old-school as he is (Luigi), he stands no chance. Against someone like Kefka, he has his casual vote in tact.

Not that Ms. Pac-Man would be anything regardless, but I believe Mega Man pulled the same thing on her.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Overperformance. Pac-Man relies almost entirely on casual appeal, and you put him against somebody nearly as old-school as he is (Luigi), he stands no chance. Against someone like Kefka, he has his casual vote in tact.

I agree with that somewhat (a straight interpretation of Luigi/Pac-Man/Kefka puts Luigi above Snake), but I don't think it tells the whole story.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Regarding Ryu Vs. Bowser, which do you think is more impressive? I'll try to use recent polls only :(

Ryu got 44.46% against Sonic the Hedgehog, who went out to Samus Aran with 42.49% of the vote. Samus received 40.99% against Cloud Strife, who, by the looks of things, remained fairly constant.

Bowser received 40.45% against Sephiroth in SpC2k5, and Sephiroth went out to Cloud with exactly 44%.

Cloud went out to Link (<3) with 48.18% of the vote.

If you were to !!!x-statify!!! this information, who would end up on top?

Simply looking at the %s, I'd say it's Bowser match to lose, but I don't know how to extrapolate the stats ;_;

What do you think?
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

Sephiroth is the most inconsistent character we've ever seen in these contests. Trying to compare his performances across contests is just asking for trouble.

Honestly though, I'd love to see Luigi be stronger than expected. Partly because I love the green plumber and partly because it makes Squall look stronger.

Just a question...KOS-MOS is the only character from Samus's division in 2003 that wasn't involved with any sort of adjustment, if I'm not mistaken. Wasn't she stronger in 2004?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Mister Mario:
Using that exact scenario gives Bowser beating Ryu with 56.49%. However, it assumes SC2k4 Sephiroth and Sp2k5 Sephiroth are equal, which is not a particularly smart thing to do.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Sephiroth is the most inconsistent character we've ever seen in these contests. Trying to compare his performances across contests is just asking for trouble.

Mega Man might have something to say about that.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Watch Bowser beat Ryu with 56.49% now. >>;

Anyway, I agree wholeheartedly with RPGuy's analysis, and I too have Luigi over Tifa (as everyone knows).
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Just a question...KOS-MOS is the only character from Samus's division in 2003 that wasn't involved with any sort of adjustment, if I'm not mistaken. Wasn't she stronger in 2004?

Yes, she was; 1.86% stronger, to be specific. However, Jill wasn't in adjusted in any way, though she did have that suspect 2 day match with Hayabusa, and she dropped by 2.71%. Like I said, there really isn't enough data to do anything reasonable with the idea of Link/Samus SFF, and common sense could go either way (Link didn't SFF Mario, but it was Samus' first major game in a decade and she got nothing from it?).
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

As I've stated before, I have a feeling that Bowser/Ryu will turn out to be an instant classic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Cross-contest comnparisons aren't great, I know, but SC2k4 was less than a year ago from SpC2k5 >_>

That also puts Bowser nearly ahead of Sonic, and anything 'Tendo that beats SEGA is O.K in my book.

But if Sephiroth really is weaker, by how much? 1%? 2%?

We don't know.

Hm.

I'd still say the match is Bowser's, with around 53%.

That makes me happy ^_^
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

(Link didn't SFF Mario, but it was Samus' first major game in a decade and she got nothing from it?).

Perhaps Super Mario Sunshine either temporarily boosted Mario's strength and Link did SFF him, or SMS somehow prevented Link from SFFing him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Samus over Sephiroth just keeps looking better and better.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Hot damn, RPGuy. AAA effort, but when you have to delve about 87 matches into contest history just to convince yourself why your risk might pay off, the fact that it's just a popularity contest and that all these numbers are somewhat suspect is lost in the shuffle.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Heh, you could "prove" that Squall is on Sonic's level using certain polls.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Veering to another topic briefly... I'm looking over my bracket now, and one of the matches I've been thinking about is Vivi/Zelda. I've seen a few people state that Zelda won't be as strong as she was in 2003. I'd like to know what the reasoning behind that train of thought is, especially with Nintendo on the rise and Square declining.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

From what I've seen, the primary thing behind that is how badly Lara Croft plummeted in 2004, giving arising suspicion to Zelda overperforming on Mega Man, especially when coupled with what Link did to him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

especially with Nintendo on the rise and Square declining.

...Where the bloody hell is this supposed "Square decline" that I keep hearing about?

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Yeah, but in reality, it's a silly notion, and if anything, Zelda should be STRONGER, judging by the increases Link and (probably) Ganon have undergone.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

So where can we conclusively say Ganondorf looked stronger, really? Giygas and Dr. Robotnik will never see the light of day in a Summer Contest. Ansem made him look weaker. Diablo (through Kefka) made him look close to the same. Sephiroth is obviously not on the same level as he was in 2004. Ganondorf's advantage over Bowser isn't as large as it was in 2003 (which, strangely enough, is nearly the exact same proportion as you get if you hold Alucard static in 2003).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

But for Ganondorf to remain on the same level, Sephi has to have dropped way too much.

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

for Seph to have dropped that much, Liquid Snake had to have an absolute fluke match vs. Frog.

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I always thought the main argument for Vivi over Zelda was that assuming DK remained at the same level between 2003 and 2004, Vivi would have suffered some SFF against Sephiroth that was never accounted for, and thus would be as strong as (or very close to) Zelda seemed to be in 2003.
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"Her name is Mrs. Hutchinson, but I call her 'The Mighty Sumo'." - Iqbal
Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix.

...Where the bloody hell is this supposed "Square decline" that I keep hearing about?

Agreed. These are people, not "lol squareheads" voting in the polls. One Square character's performance doesn't affect the others.

Also, I agree with Leon that Sunshine could've had an effect in Link/Mario as well as Mario/Cloud.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

I don't think it's a "Square decline" as much as a population change. RPGs just aren't as popular now as they were in 2003. the top 10 FAQs are proof of this.
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...Where the bloody hell is this supposed "Square decline" that I keep hearing about?

Squall, Tidus, and most notably Sephiroth have all shown signs of decline, of varying conclusiveness. This isn't widespread (see: Cloud, Crono), nor foolproof (see: Squall/Bomberman and Squall/Kirby being resolved through Sephiroth/Alucard), but it remains a possibility.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Man, I'm becoming scared of Squall/Magus, too. Squall obviously increased from 2002 to 2003, since he did better against Samus in 2003 than he did against Solid in 2002...

Also, I see that through direct matches in Kirby and Bombmerman, Squall seems to be around Alucard's level. I'd put Magus over Alucard easy...
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PETITOIN: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (194 Signs!)

No, Squall is clearly above Alucard through Kirby. Dunno what happened with Bomberman though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Squall, Tidus, and most notably Sephiroth have all shown signs of decline, of varying conclusiveness.

I would suspect Tidus being weaker than his 2003 value, but not nearly as much as 2004 showed. For Squall, I see no reason to think he has declined when there are things that make sense of more than just one match concerning him. Sephiroth is the one that is the clear and obvious one. No disagreeing or anything from me. He's clearly seen a decrease since 2003 and my have dropped even further from 2004. However, I don't think this indicates a "Square decline" by any means. The vast majority of Square's characters should have remained the same, some even getting stronger.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

2K3: Alucard beat Bomberman with 64.46%
2K4: Squall beat Bomberman with 64.75%


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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (194 Signs!)

For Squall, I see no reason to think he has declined when there are things that make sense of more than just one match concerning him.

The only evidence that Squall stayed the same is the assumption that Sephiroth overperformed against Alucard, which I personally refuse to believe until someone gives me a reason WHY.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

I think it's more a Nintendo <3 increase than a Square decrease.

And yes, those Bomberman numbers are odd.

My guess is that the low vote totals hindered Squall. Square seems to like high voter turnout.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

Transcience offers a good explanation, and while RPGuy's numbers support him, it's pretty hard to lump a bunch of characters together and call it a "Square Decline". Plenty of other characters have dropped as well.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

Plenty of other characters dropped and it wouldn't be too hard to find a common thread between them.

Sorry for double post =P
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

yeah, for there to be a "Square decline" it has to be all of them. it can't be half of them. otherwise it's some other factor that's completely unrelated to them being Square characters, like perhaps they don't stand the test of time.

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The only evidence that Squall stayed the same is the assumption that Sephiroth overperformed against Alucard, which I personally refuse to believe until someone gives me a reason WHY.

Yes, there isn't any good reason for Sephiroth overperform against Link in 2002 either, but that's the idea behing the WDF.

Alucard being underrated in 2003, explains the 3% underperformance by Ganon, along with Kirby and Bomberman against Squall, I believe. However, if you don't believe that, then Alucard would either increase for no real reason or Ganon would decrease.

I can believe WDF, despite the horrible reasoning behind Sephiroth's overperformance, but I never really heard anything on why Sephiroth would overperform against Alucard -- I would rather there not be a reason than the half-assed excuse I have heard for Sephiroth and Link though.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Bomberman probably increased, a small vote total should help a character like him.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia