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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 150
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:49:36 AM | Message Detail
Well, if I had to venture a guess, I'd say you have a liking for Big Boss, and want him to win. But that's just my professional opinion.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Tai | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:52:24 AM | Message Detail
Am I the only one who threw my bracket together based on who I thought would win instead of trying to get upsets?

Nope, I did too. Hell, I'll probably just look at the stats again and say "you know what, my picks are fine, and most of the Board 8 vets are just talking bull****, and are trying to hype people into making the wrong choice, so screw them :p). I've done it at least 5 times already. :-)

I have no problem with my bracket being border-line cookie cutter, as long as I didn't miss something in the stats that may be useful.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: voltch | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:53:16 AM | Message Detail
it's more like i just feel big boss might win cause his matches are a day before snake's and i wonder if he will get outside help. and i don't know what his strength is compared with the solid snake
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:54:16 AM | Message Detail
it's more like i just feel big boss might win cause his matches are a day before snake's and i wonder if he will get outside help. and i don't know what his strength is compared with the solid snake

I suppose that makes perfect sense to you.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:56:45 AM | Message Detail
I honestly filled my bracket out in about two minutes, just going la di da di da, I've yet to make any changes, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed that way. Though I do have Bowser and Mario meeting, so perhaps I'll have to look that over.

and oh, just for the record, Master Chief could have taken Magus, but he'll put up an awesome showing against Crono, but MC/Magus was the match to set up, not really mc/crono.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:58:37 AM | Message Detail
I filled out my bracket going by who I thought would win, before reading any discussion or looking at the BOP. I was extremely surprised that a lot of my picks are for huge upsets.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/4/2005 9:59:21 AM | Message Detail
I don't pick upsets. Pick-and-pray is not something I believe in. I actually think Samus will beat Sephiroth, and I actually think Terra will beat Dante.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:01:05 AM | Message Detail
I don't pick upsets. Pick-and-pray is not something I believe in. I actually think Samus will beat Sephiroth, and I actually think Terra will beat Dante.

I don't either, that's what I was trying to ask sort of. Picking a character you think has a little tiny chance to win in order to give yourself a possiblity of getting an upset just seems wrong to me... The only exception I have for that philosophy is Ryu vs Sonic. Yes, that means I genuinely though that Ocelot would beat Bowser when I made the bracket.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:01:20 AM | Message Detail
I would probably go for Samus over Sephiroth, but it would hurt. However I think Mario will beat Samus, so it's not something I have to consider at the moment.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:04:28 AM | Message Detail
A movie is going to be more impactful than a game bundled with a popular system that has sold millions and has been out for over half a year.

Yes, easily. The demo from MP:H, which is not good at all, is not going to provide someone like Samus with a boost. I would put more worth into something like MP2 before I would MPH.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:07:06 AM | Message Detail
Yes, and I plan to win 8.12% 1636

I'm one of these people. Right now my "plan" to win is to play it safe (safe for me), and then to bank on Samus at the end. That extra eight points is a big deal, should the upset happen.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:07:14 AM | Message Detail
I might be changing to Vercetti>Kefka now.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:07:50 AM | Message Detail

I'm one of these people. Right now my "plan" to win is to play it safe (safe for me), and then to bank on Samus at the end. That extra eight points is a big deal, should the upset happen.


But one other major upset will more or less dash your chances...
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:08:07 AM | Message Detail
Can Aurion take out Diablo?

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A E I OWN U
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:08:13 AM | Message Detail
I don't pick upsets. Pick-and-pray is not something I believe in. I actually think Samus will beat Sephiroth, and I actually think Terra will beat Dante.

In that sense, I wouldn't imagine anyone here really picking something they don't believe stands a chance of happening. Obviously, you thinking Terra can beat Dante or Samus can beat Sephiroth are justifiable, but they aren't the "safe picks." The majority are siding with the opposite and those characters have already been ahead of the one's you're choosing.

But yeah, I'm sure most here choose upsets that can be justified and they believe can very well happen. Even with that, you still have to recognize that they aren't the most likely scenario, thus is where your "upset" pick comes into play.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:08:54 AM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/4/2005 12:58:37 PM | #406
I filled out my bracket going by who I thought would win, before reading any discussion or looking at the BOP. I was extremely surprised that a lot of my picks are for huge upsets.

I did the same this contest, as well as last spring, and I NEVER went against the BOP at all in spite of this in both contests...
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:09:42 AM | Message Detail
Okay, who or what is the BOP? In all my years on this board, I've never actually seen this "BOP" people speak of.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:10:04 AM | Message Detail
Can Aurion take out Diablo?

I believe so, yes. There can be a good case made for Kratos winning that match. After all, it isn't as though Diablo is a major powerhouse. He's in between that level of Yoshi and KOS-MOS. I believe Lloyd would be around KOS-MOS' level to begin with and that Kratos would be slightly higher, making a Kratos over Diablo pick very possible.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:10:25 AM | Message Detail
Wait a sec, I'm-a-bump it for you.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:13:26 AM | Message Detail
But yeah, I'm sure most here choose upsets that can be justified and they believe can very well happen. Even with that, you still have to recognize that they aren't the most likely scenario, thus is where your "upset" pick comes into play.

Of course. In the Spring Contest, I banked on Diablo. This time around, it's Samus I'm putting my trust in.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Ayvuir | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:14:33 AM | Message Detail
Kratos vs Diablo
im really unsure on this one, i mean yes diablo did well in the villains contest, but kratos is from ToS which is a very well known game at the moment. what did everyone pick?
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Don't listen to the Squallunatics and the Vincentrolls, Magus is where it's at.
- Snowflake
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:15:07 AM | Message Detail
Of course. In the Spring Contest, I banked on Diablo. This time around, it's Samus I'm putting my trust in.

I can't say I hope it pays off, because I've got Crono taking down Samus in the finals of the main bracket and then Cloud vs. Sephiroth in the ToC. ;)

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:15:54 AM | Message Detail
im really unsure on this one, i mean yes diablo did well in the villains contest, but kratos is from ToS which is a very well known game at the moment. what did everyone pick?

I can tell you right now, the vast majority of people are siding with Diablo. Many aren't giving Kratos much of a chance.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:15:59 AM | Message Detail
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 12:48:23 PM | Message Detail
Am I the only one who threw my bracket together based on who I thought would win instead of trying to get upsets?


There's a reason I have Mario over Samus and refuse to change my mind about it. I don't think Samus can win, regardless of what the stats say.

And about Samus getting more attention than Mario. I just read a Nintendo Power, and the only thing it talked about was E3 coverage, the new Zelda, and a bunch of Mario games. I don't see where this massive attention from Nintendo is coming from.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:16:00 AM | Message Detail
Where's the Mario love?

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A E I OWN U
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:16:31 AM | Message Detail
*^5's Ulti*

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A E I OWN U
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:17:02 AM | Message Detail
I skimmed through the new NP yesterday at some store. Mario was all over it.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:19:24 AM | Message Detail
And about Samus getting more attention than Mario.

Not to be mean, but these people just don't know what they're talking about. There was never a recent shift from Mario to Samus in Nintendo's focus. Mario is the more popular franchise, it makes them the most money, and Mario still remains Nintendo's mascot. I just don't know where certain people get the ridiculous idea that Nintendo's focus shifted.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:20:11 AM | Message Detail
I was skimming through it while at work. I got done everything by 8 and didn't have to leave until 10. Mario is just everywhere in that thing, including on the cover in a badassed pose with his arms crossed. So I ask again, where is the proof that Nintendo actually thinks that it needs to stray from Mario and give more attention to Samus?

Not saying this relates to GF in the least. I've just seen a lot of claims about it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tai | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:20:47 AM | Message Detail
I don't pick upsets. Pick-and-pray is not something I believe in. I actually think Samus will beat Sephiroth, and I actually think Terra will beat Dante.

Yeah, pick-and-pray gets you no where.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:22:19 AM | Message Detail
The problem with picking Terra is the wild card factor with her picture, while we alredy know for a fact what Dante is capable of. I'm more of a "The evil you know over the evil you don't" type.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tai | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:22:26 AM | Message Detail
I haven't made any claim of where Nintendo's shifted, and I think Samus will simply beat the **** out of Mario. It's Mario's strength that shifted. Theories be damned. (That means SFF.)
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:23:53 AM | Message Detail
If it was Lloyd going against Diablo instead of Kratos, I wouldn't pick Diablo. As it is, I don't think Kratos can trump the hero>fan favorite>villain standard, and I don't think Lloyd would be much above Diablo anyway. To Kratos' credit, he probably has the best shot of outdoing his hero out of anyone except Vivi and maybe Auron.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: Tai | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:28:29 AM | Message Detail
Diablo would be over Lloyd, but you'd pick Lloyd, anyways?


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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:30:24 AM | Message Detail
If Magus can't do it, Kratos can't do it.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:31:40 AM | Message Detail
To Kratos' credit, he probably has the best shot of outdoing his hero out of anyone except Vivi and maybe Auron.

Except that Lloyd rocks in battle, whereas there is nothing appealing about Zidane or Tidus. Quina and Freya can get a guaranteed 9999 far before Zidane, and Tidus is overshadowed to hell by Yuna, Wakka, and Auron.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:35:32 AM | Message Detail
With Samus/Mario I see people raising the point of how Mario couldn't sff Link, so why should he Samus? And I think the answer to that is because Samus is no Link. Also, someone like Link is popular enough and has had enough games to reach out beyond the Nintendo audience at times. Samus probably does draw nearly all her support from Nintendo. IE, someone who is staunchly square would vote for Link over Mario, but not Samus over Mario. Something like that.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:36:58 AM | Message Detail
People love to assume that there was no SFF in Link/Mario. I swear, some people can't mix contest stats with common sense.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:37:25 AM | Message Detail
I agree.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Abstain | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:42:11 AM | Message Detail
ok apart form kratos/diablo (which i now may change to diablo after whats been said) the other ones that worry me are:
Squall/Magus: yes i know most people are picking magus on this board but i really don't see a magus victory here.

Vincent/Dante: i picked vincent, mainly cos i like him more and he is a popular character of FFVII, and i believe he could get a majority of votes from the FF fanbase. Dante has DMC3 just out which ive hard is great but i refuse to choose him just cos i believe Vincent will win and i like him more. Ignorant choice?

Yoshi/Ocelot: Not many people seem to be worrying about this one, they all seem to think Yoshi has it in the bag, from what ive seen anyway. But Ocelot i think has a good chance, ive still gone fro Yoshi though.

anyway just thought i'd share that all with you.
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Police toilet stolen, cops have nothing to go on
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:45:19 AM | Message Detail
Not only do I feel that Link SFFd Mario, I feel he overperformed by quite a bit. By the time the 2002 contest was over, Mario had so much hate working against him that it was almost to the point of being unfair. To assume that Link didn't SFF Mario after all the crap Mario had to deal with is something only perpetrated by stat fanboys.

In 2003, take a small look at what match took place before Sephiroth's trouncing of Mario. As for 2004, one can easily blame a Crono increase and/or the "God damn, I'm sick of this match; let's vote Crono to get it over with and never see it again" factor. I'm not saying Mario is a guarantee to beat Samus, but writing him off completely because of the stats is stupid. It wouldn't shock me in the least if Mario won the main bracket.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:46:00 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi/Ocelot: Not many people seem to be worrying about this one, they all seem to think Yoshi has it in the bag, from what ive seen anyway. But Ocelot i think has a good chance, ive still gone fro Yoshi though.

They have a common opponent.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: voltch | Posted: 7/4/2005 10:53:04 AM | Message Detail
so which characters are expected to get help via links from other websites.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:01:52 AM | Message Detail
Diablo.

Kerrigan might get links, but I doubt they will do anything.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:06:22 AM | Message Detail
They have a common opponent.

That doesn't always mean anything. For one, Bowser vs. Yoshi is a SFF match, which probably screwed with the data a little, even if the results look about right. Also, the two matches took place two years apart, so Bowser's strength may have changed. Also, 2003 was an odd year for the contests, because of the huge vote totals that we haven't seen since (thanks a ****ing lot, site redesign).

Granted, Yoshi vs. Ocelot is a match where the common opponent thing may be more definitive than usual, just because Yoshi got much more than Ocelot (10% more, was it?) However, just like the X-Stats, common opponent comparison can go awry.

Yoshi will still win, though.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:07:31 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi did exactly what he was supposed to do in his first two matches last year...
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:09:49 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief will also get links to help him, but his path is the easiest to predict in the entire contest.
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Light is but a farewell gift from the darkness to those on their way to die. ~The Boss
ZSB [aX]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:11:41 AM | Message Detail
Which is sad, because he had massive potential written all over him. Had he been switched around with, say, Kirby... imagine the debates.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:14:39 AM | Message Detail
Except that Lloyd rocks in battle, whereas there is nothing appealing about Zidane or Tidus. Quina and Freya can get a guaranteed 9999 far before Zidane, and Tidus is overshadowed to hell by Yuna, Wakka, and Auron.

...Wait, you're using an RPG character's strength in battle to judge his contest worth? I mean, being good in battle can't hurt, but that's not what's gonna be the main factor in an RPG character's strength. I mean, I used Lloyd in battle all throughout the game, cause he's the best. However, I'd never vote him over Kratos, because he's a deluded idealist and I can't stand him.

I mean, you're sort of defeating your own argument here by mentioning Quina, Freya, and Wakka (and Steiner falls into this crowd as well). All strong characters in battle, but have you seen them in the contests? If they were in the contests, would they be anything above fodder?

Personally, I don't think Kratos has a chance against Lloyd, but I think that way because if Crono can double Magus, then I find it hard to believe that a fan favorite character can defeat a main character from the same game.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/4/2005 11:16:02 AM | Message Detail
Which is sad, because he had massive potential written all over him. Had he been switched around with, say, Kirby... imagine the debates.

Agreed. It's one of the few flaws to this bracket.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
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