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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 150
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 6:30:13 PM | Message Detail
While MGS3 is on my mind, is the Xbox version of it out yet?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/3/2005 6:50:30 PM | Message Detail
On the topic of people voting for the Best Villain in the villain contest...they don't even vote for the Best Character in the character contest. They vote for their favorite. I don't see why a villain contest would cause a sudden rise in objectivity.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:25:08 PM | Message Detail
It wouldn't. People are just crazy.

Ulti, didn't you yourself say in your Cloud/Mario analysis that on any given day, voting swings can go any which way given the proper situation (not your exact words, obviously)? Just because franchise voting doesn't adequately explain everything, such as Liquid Snake decreasing, doesn't mean that it's made invalid -- there are other explanations out there that go with it.

I fully remember saying that, and I'd buy it if there was only one coincidence in the villain contest. However, on top of the Final Four, Bowser and Ganon completely crapped on the entire bracket and Liquid Snake performed 10% worse than he was supposed to.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:31:32 PM | Message Detail
Hmm... a quick question. I figure that Kefka, of all people, was the most likely to remain somewhat constant in the villains contest. Assuming he did remain constant, what would Ganondorf be expected to get on Link 2K4, extrapolated through Kefka?
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Light is but a farewell gift from the darkness to those on their way to die. ~The Boss
ZSB [aX]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:32:36 PM | Message Detail
Oh, add Sephiroth 2K4 to that for good measure.
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Light is but a farewell gift from the darkness to those on their way to die. ~The Boss
ZSB [aX]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:35:53 PM | Message Detail
Hmm... a quick question. I figure that Kefka, of all people, was the most likely to remain somewhat constant in the villains contest. Assuming he did remain constant, what would Ganondorf be expected to get on Link 2K4, extrapolated through Kefka?

Ganondorf through 2k4 adj Kefka = 35.67% on 2k3 Link, which I'm too lazy to convert to both 2k4 Links.

Through Seph has him noticeably higher (above Mario), at 38.95% on 2k3 Link. Again, too lazy to convert.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:36:46 PM | Message Detail
It seems that I disagree with the board quite a bit.

Ness > CJ
Vivi > Zelda
Kefka > Vercetti
Terra > Dante
Kerrigan > Vincent
Alucard > Sora
Kirby > Tidus
Terra > Kerrigan(Vincent)
Luigi > Tifa
Mario > Samus
Bowser > Snake
Crono > Mario(Samus)

I feel like MasterMage.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:42:07 PM | Message Detail
Gannondorf is 33.2 on 2k4 Link about .3% under Sonic

Sephiroth is 39.67 on 2k4 Link right above Samus.

Bowser is 32.1 on 2k4 Link putting him halfway between Zero/Magus.

Actually those stats kind of sound right. Not saying they are.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:43:21 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf through 2k4 adj Kefka = 35.67% on 2k3 Link, which I'm too lazy to convert to both 2k4 Links.

Hmm, slightly less than 1% higher than his 2K3 value. I'm really starting to think that Bowser had a good-sized increase, Ganon had a minor one, and Sephiroth had quite a fall. I'm going to pretend that Liquid Snake doesn't exist, and laugh at Vergil for being such a wuss. Samus over Sephiroth is looking more and more appealing, as is Bowser over Snake.
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Light is but a farewell gift from the darkness to those on their way to die. ~The Boss
ZSB [aX]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:43:59 PM | Message Detail
My thoughts exactly.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:44:07 PM | Message Detail
Alucard over Sora is not a bad pick.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Acronym | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:44:20 PM | Message Detail
Ness > CJ

I can understand the others, but care to explain this one?
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"Her name is Mrs. Hutchinson, but I call her 'The Mighty Sumo'." - Iqbal
Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:45:49 PM | Message Detail
Basically, Snake has to either increase by about 2 percents from a game he wasn't in or be really underrated by the SFF adjusted stats to beat Bowser.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:46:57 PM | Message Detail
You think Mega Man could take down Crono?
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:48:20 PM | Message Detail
No chance.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:48:37 PM | Message Detail
I didn't say it was bad, just that it goes against the consensus. Ness over CJ stems from the fact that I like Ness more and wouldn't mind losing a point on principle (the big reason!), and because people don't play GTA games for the characters. Tenpenny was one of the worst characters ever (Giygas > OT), Vercetti bombed admirably, and I'm hoping CJ continues the trend. On top of that, I'm hoping that EarthBound gets a "Chrono Trigger Effect," in that the characters are stronger in each appearance. Add to this that we don't have particularly good data for either Ness or CJ's closest competitor, Vercetti, so I can let my bias cloud my judgement even more. The match has Ness/Jak written all over it, if you ask me.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:49:40 PM | Message Detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Ngamer64
3 - yoblazer33
4 - Team Rocket Elite
5 - Ballpoint Pencil
6 - HaRRicH
7 - NewLib
8 - Heroic Mario
9 - RPGGamer0
10- Tirofog
11 - Haste2
12 - Fiop
13 - Starion
14 - Lopen
15 - greatone10
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - SonicRaptor
18 - Lucid Faia
19 - Draco1214
20 - Gr8CyberMonkey
21 - Heroic Viktor (tnote)
22 - Undeniable
23 - CaptainFlufflez
24 - Dranze
25 - Vile Requiem
26 - Forceful Dragon
27 - Lieutenant Kettch
28 - swirldude
29 - andaca
30 - Ed_Bellis
31 - RPGuy96
32 - Janus5000
33 - Dilated Chemist
34 - Applekidjosh
35 - Mac Arrowny
36 - Z1mZum
37 - Link Jr
38 - Aprosenf
39 - Chinballz
40 - somdude04
41 - Buzzup
42 - Silverflame
43 - cavedog0
44 - Shake
45 - Lettuce Kefka
46 - Rufus Shinra 18
47 - Gooper Blooper
48 - Ringworm
49 - stepintothearena
50 - Zylo the wolf
51 - Fantusta
52 - XxSoulxX
53 - Heroic Gamma Ray
54 - jonthomson
55 - Master Moltar
56 - XIII is cool
57 - Tediz247
58 - charmander6000
59 - plasmabeam
60 - Phediuk
61 - alpha door
62 - ExThaNemesis
63 - Tai
64 - Shdwdde
65 - VicPez
66 - Sir Bormun
67 - Tjian
68 - Brainstruck
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - ShinDragon (sidharta)
71 - Brett with Atreyu
72 - Smurf87
73 - DeeJayDragon
74 - Weird Kirby Dude11
75 - DomaDragoon
76 - dragoontheguy
77 - Radix
78 - rpgapzx
79 - PugTheNinja
80 - Kaxon
81 - FastFalcon05
82 - ubarn
83 - King Morgoth
84 - Mithrandir1331
85 - cyko
86 - Fett0001
87 - SecondBest
88 - Shivan Reincarnated
89 - outback
90 - A worlds envy
91 - Crono801
92 - LuniNutz99
93 - Sephirot1
94 - ExquisiteSamurai
95 - SlangEdter41
96 - voltch
97 - transience
98 - igota75
99. dethfddddh
100 - red sox 777
101 - Yesmar
102 - ff6man
103 - arkenaga
104 - meche313
105 - BeTheMan
106 - bigkevinm84
107 - Steinershocker
108 - steve illumina
109 - Naye745
110 - MasterMage119
111 - Acronym
112 - SoulKnightX
113 - perdevious
114 - Jman_gamerX8
115 - fallenstar
116 - ps2rulezzz
117 - KingBartz
118 - Heroic Knuckles
119 - MMXcalibur

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:50:00 PM | Message Detail
But even saying Vercetti bombed, if CJ is anywhere NEAR Vercetti he beats Ness.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:50:31 PM | Message Detail
Well, looks like I'm going to have to change my Auron/Ganon upset, because with those numbers, Auron needs to have suffered a good deal of SFF against Sephiroth to have a chance. I'm going to hurt something if Auron does win though...

I'm still keeping Snake over Bowser, even if it is a great upset pick otherwise. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it turn out to be the closest match of the contest.
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Light is but a farewell gift from the darkness to those on their way to die. ~The Boss
ZSB [aX]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:56:59 PM | Message Detail
But even saying Vercetti bombed, if CJ is anywhere NEAR Vercetti he beats Ness.

Oh, really? Ness through Auron through Scorpion is at 25% on 2k3 Link, non 20XXDF Vercetti is at 24.15%. Ness wins. Twisting math is fun.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:58:19 PM | Message Detail
oh...my....goodness, I'VE CAUGHT UP!!!!!


yay, fanfare, hurray!

This bracket is definitely a lot of fun, I'm sort of concerned that people consider Sora over Alucard the right choice. When I filled out my bracket really quick for the first run through, I only put Sora going with what I wanted, not really what I expected.

And Terra/Vincent/Kerrigan/Dante worries me, right along with everyone else. I definitely find myself agreeing with the person, damn I cant remember, who said that it just feels wrong that the game (FFVI) itself wouldn't have a strong character. I've seen it said before that this is because the game has so many characters in it, but I don't really trust that all too much. I'd be willing to say that outside of this board, and ff6's, the general voter would say the main character was terra or celes, and certainly not kefka.
Also, with Vincent, he could really be anywhere. I know some people have been throwing floors and ceilings around, but, well, he's new, so at the end of the day, he's just that; untested. Terra as the main final fantasy six character(?) could have, say, Aeris like strength, or even higher. It really is just abnormal for such a high performing game not to have a representative that isn't a disgrace in the contest. Sort of sounds like Starcraft, in a way, and also with Kerrigan being basically left out of all discussion, as someone else said...

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Congratulations to yoblazer, winner of the Spring 2k5 Guru Contest!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:00:31 PM | Message Detail
damn I cant remember, who said that it just feels wrong that the game (FFVI) itself wouldn't have a strong character

That was me.

Sort of sounds like Starcraft, in a way, and also with Kerrigan being basically left out of all discussion, as someone else said...

That was me, too!

Terra > Kerrigan.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:02:24 PM | Message Detail
Terra would have a chance on post-DMC3 Dante if this weren't her first contest appearance and she had something besides an Amano picture in the match. Terra is a board creation.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:02:48 PM | Message Detail
What did you take Scorpions 2k2 value?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:04:32 PM | Message Detail
There's too much extraneous stuff in Terra's Amano art to be usable. Kefka's lettuce pic is at least a full body shot, so it gets used, but Terra's doesn't work that way. I think she's going to get something else.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:05:04 PM | Message Detail
Tenpenny was one of the worst characters ever (Giygas > OT)

An SFF'd Giygas, no less.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Acronym | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:05:32 PM | Message Detail
The thing about Terra/Vincent/Kerrigan is that it's possible to at least get a glimpse of what Vincent's strength might be from Aeris, whereas it's a lot harder to do that with Terra and Kerrigan. Given Aeris' great success, Vincent has to be the favorite, and although it might not be a great justification, it's the only real one we've got, so a lot of people are going along with it.
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"Her name is Mrs. Hutchinson, but I call her 'The Mighty Sumo'." - Iqbal
Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:05:48 PM | Message Detail
What did you take Scorpions 2k2 value?

2k3, actually, which is marginally stronger than his 2k2 value.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:06:18 PM | Message Detail
Well her CGI is decent compared to Kefka's.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:07:27 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of which, something I haven't seen discussed, though I admit I skipped rather large chunks of the discussion.

Should Ganondorf beat Auron, how much of a beatdown do you expect from Samus? For the record, Samus would be projected to win with 59% without SFF.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:08:53 PM | Message Detail
I really dont expect all that much SFF with Samus. Maybe 10-15 percent at most.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:10:57 PM | Message Detail
I'd rather not discuss the possibility of Ganon getting SFFed to hell again.
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Not as cool as MoltimaterializerX...
It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:12:31 PM | Message Detail
When I first made my predictions to myself, I considered SFF in the Samus/Ganon match...and gave Ganon 38%; it seemed smart at the time, heh. Since then though, I'd guess Ganon would probably just barely avoid the doubling.

As a side-note, should Samus and Ganon face off, this'll be ANOTHER year Auron will be stuck behind some SFF. The same thing can be said if Mario happens to beat Samus, also.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:14:07 PM | Message Detail
Well, if Auron wins problem solved... jeebus cripes, I just realized BOTH Ganondorf and Magus could get penalized by SFF for the second time in a row. Imagine if Ganondorf won their encounter back in 2003... we'd probably be treating them both as backmarkers.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Acronym | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:15:29 PM | Message Detail
Imagine the Squall vs. Vincent debates...
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"Her name is Mrs. Hutchinson, but I call her 'The Mighty Sumo'." - Iqbal
Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:17:29 PM | Message Detail
Hilariously enough, despite Magus being right there, there are STILL some of these.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:17:42 PM | Message Detail
At least Ganon won't face Link again. Magus (and possibly Bowser, though that isn't likely) gets to face Crono again =D
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:17:47 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I've thrown that out there before about Ganon/Magus, heh. Imagine the shock we woulda been in if that happened and Magus and Frog were to switch places in 2k4.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:19:37 PM | Message Detail
I think Tidus would have prevented us thinking Magus was completely weak.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:20:27 PM | Message Detail
Quite a few people have a Mario/Bowser rematch... and I'm surprised. I mean, one titanic upset in the later rounds is more than possible... but having two in a row is begging for trouble.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:21:34 PM | Message Detail
Ryu > Bowser

_-
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May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by 4.38x in sales for the month of May.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:21:50 PM | Message Detail
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 11:19:37 PM | #289
I think Tidus would have prevented us thinking Magus was completely weak.

How about Sam Fisher? He went from being doubled by Magus, which ranks him near the top of the second half of the X-Sts, to almost losing to Gordon Freeman...

...if anything, Alucard would be the only clue we could go by.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:23:01 PM | Message Detail
I'm sensing there's gonna be one upset that no one will see oming.

Of course, it probably won't cause a riot like Squall/Luigi, but I'm just having that feeling.
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Not as cool as MoltimaterializerX...
It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:23:41 PM | Message Detail
Well lets just all be thankful it didnt happen then.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:24:26 PM | Message Detail
For whatever reason, I think KOS-MOS may be the one.

And once again, at Luigi's expense to boot.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:25:57 PM | Message Detail
But people see the KOS-MOS thing coming. I mean even those who picked Luigi admit they are relying on Nintendo fanboys to pull him through a close match.

Match thats going to be closer than most people think: Frog/Riku. Just remember when I said something.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:27:26 PM | Message Detail
I've had KOS-MOS > Luigi from day one. From my observations, almost no one else seems to.

Shame it's only a round one match... I wonder if KOS-MOS would get TJFSFF'd or something against Tifa >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:27:46 PM | Message Detail
I forgot what I have in my analysis, but I have Frog nearly doubling Riku. I'm think we might see a little good ol' Square SFF combined with a Frog beatdown.
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Not as cool as MoltimaterializerX...
It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:28:37 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Frog over Sora and never look back. Riku's another story... in that I'll never minus one look back.
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:29:13 PM | Message Detail
101 Gordon Freeman 13.85
102 Tina Armstrong 13.72


I think this was mentioned already, but this is hilarious.
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Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo
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