Regardless, it still doesn't make Vergil look impressive. I still think Dante will have little trouble beating Vincent, but I think that's because vincent will do worse then expected, not because Dante increased significantly.

Actually, that post was in regards to Auron having a shot at Ganon. However, I also believe Vincent will be weaker than expected, and that's what I'm banking on more heavily in that match than Dante getting stronger. I think Dante will at max get a 1.5% increase.

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So I guess I'm the only one who thinks Vergil had a decent showing, and Dante will boost slightly, but Vincent will still take him out?
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No, Moltar, that's my prediction too.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

I think the casual gamers have proven that the later in a game you're introduced, and the less prominent you are, the worse you do.
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:48:02 PM | Message Detail | #052
So I guess I'm the only one who thinks Vergil had a decent showing, and Dante will boost slightly, but Vincent will still take him out?

Yes, because I think I'm the only one with you on Vergil gave a decent showing, but I think Vincent will be weaker than expected.

I'm fully expecting this match to be 52-48 or thereabouts in favor of Dante, so I'm not really thinking Vincent will be that much weaker than expected... just significantly.

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I think the casual gamers have proven that the later in a game you're introduced, and the less prominent you are, the worse you do.

*stares down Kuja...

...then Master Hand*
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
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In response to a post in the previous topic:

People voted based on who was the better villain? That's news to me.

Not everyone, obviously. I think that it did play a part, however. I know that I voted differently than I would have in a Summer Contest -- I voted for Diablo in almost every match he was in, but I'm hard-pressed to think of a match I'd vote for him in in the Summer Contest.

And as someone else already said, I think that Sephiroth anti-voting also played a part (in addition to Sephiroth decreasing, of course). Everyone knew he would win, and that no other characters had a chance on him, so they voted against him just to make things more interesting.

Now, bear in mind that I'm not saying that the Spring Contest results are worthless. By no means am I saying such a thing -- as a matter of fact, it's the Spring Contest that makes me confident in my Bowser > Snake pick -- but I think that all of these things were in play in the Spring Contest, and will not necessarily be in play in the Summer Contest.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Yeah well master hand is the only uniquie thing SSBM has going for it. It doesn't exactly take long to find his existence in the game. Kuja wasn't introduced until the very end of disc one and didn't have any prominence until the very end of disc two.
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TGM, I think you're truly unique in the way you vote simply based off the title of the contest. I seriously doubt anymore than maybe .5% of total voters doing the same as you.

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Since Sephiroth was such a ridiculous favorite to win the contest, I say it's possible that he was anti-voted to make the contest less predictable. Remember, there was somewhere in the vicinity of 25,000 brackets, and I'll say that 20,000 of those are unique. Now, I'd imagine that almost all of those people would be voting in the contest...

Of course, this brings up another controversial topic. Who's to say that Sephiroth was the only person to be affected by that sort of thinking? What if bracket voters ALWAYS think like that whenever there is a clear favorite? That's probably a big reason why Frog did so well against Snake. It's also why close matches probably screw up the stats so much. Voting patterns change. People protect their brackets when they normally wouldn't have voted for a character. There are tons of matches that might have been affected by this. I know I'm playing with fire here, but didn't Cloud make his push WELL into his match against Link last year? I can't get the poll updater to work for that match. But who knows?

Still, don't focus on that match (I had just been dying to say that). My point is that a lot of matches may very well be affected by the same thing that you said happened with Sephiroth in the spring. In a close match, things can go either way. Frog/MC is an example of this. Here's to hoping that ALL of the controversial matches end up being close in this contest to bring up unpredictability.
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TGM, I think you're truly unique in the way you vote simply based off the title of the contest. I seriously doubt anymore than maybe .5% of total voters doing the same as you.

I don't know -- I know that I actually took into consideration who was the better villain rather than who was the better character, and while I realize that the majority of people didn't do that, I still think that enough did it to make a difference. I would make a more liberal estimate -- say, 5%? Maybe I'm totally off my rocker. Did anyone else here vote differently because it was a villain contest?

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Vincent won't beat Terra or Dante, and Knuckles will beat the winner of that.
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SC2K5 Elite Eight: Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot

My point is that a lot of matches may very well be affected by the same thing that you said happened with Sephiroth in the spring.

This is very true. This is why I think that we could have a lot of potential surprises that don't seem plausible at all given the X-stats -- and what you are saying is especially true with the most elite characters.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

Did anyone else here vote differently because it was a villain contest?


*crickets chirp*

I think Tnote did, actually.
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Ulti and HM should get married so they can argue with each other while having sex.

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*tumbleweed rolls by*

Anyone? Anyone?

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

I think it's fairly obvious that certain characters (read: Ganondorf and Bowser) got enormous boosts in the Villain Contests because they were representing their respective series, boosts that would have no impact in the Summer. This explains all the weird results effectively and seems perfectly logical.
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Mega Man will win the Summer Contest, Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix, and Dr. Lampowitz will find the cure.

You know, the more I think about, the more I think it's a combination of different things. While all of these explanations would be illogical if they had a lot of effect on their own, taken together, they could all have played small roles. Voting for villains instead of characters + Sephiroth decreasing + franchise voting + Sephiroth anti-voting + actual increase on the parts of Bowser and Ganondorf = Spring Contest results.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

I think it's fairly obvious that certain characters (read: Ganondorf and Bowser) got enormous boosts in the Villain Contests because they were representing their respective series, boosts that would have no impact in the Summer. This explains all the weird results effectively and seems perfectly logical.

Why just Bowser and Gdorf? Shouldn't Sephiroth have gotten a boost for representing FFVII? Liquid for MGS? Luca Blight for SuikII?
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

I think it's fairly obvious that certain characters (read: Ganondorf and Bowser) got enormous boosts in the Villain Contests because they were representing their respective series

Sorry, but that post has LOL written all over it.

Why... please, PLEASE, come up with one logical (www.dictionary.com) reason why in a normal contest, someone who is an avid Mario fan WOULDN'T vote Bowser in that contest as well, but WOULD vote for Bowser in a contest lacking Mario. There's nothing stopping them from voting Bowser in the contest that also has Mario in it, unless of course he was head on with Mario, but that's not the case, as we have the adjustments for such things. It's ludicrous to believe anything like that. KOS-MOS although normally weak was absent from the Spring Contest, Albedo still bombed to all hell. Ryu? Gone. Bison? LOL. Samus? Gone. Ridley? X ****ing D.

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Incidentally, I just realized that Pac-Man could conceivably beat Ocelot. That would be hilarious.
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"I have ambitions beyond becoming a god, you know." ~ Lezard Valeth, Valkyrie Profile

Did anyone else here vote differently because it was a villain contest?

in all honesty, i don't really understand how you can like someone as a villain without liking them as a character if being a villain is part of the character.

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I also voted differently than normal in the villains contest.

I don't think that the "average voter" is as braindead as some of you guys think when it comes to voting. I'd think that most of them would realize that the contest was for villains only after seeing the words "Got Villains?" above the poll and a picture of two bad guys.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I don't think the idea that certain characters received boosts for representing their series while others did not really floats. That wouldn't make any sense.

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I don't think the idea that certain characters received boosts for representing their series while others did not really floats. That wouldn't make any sense.

Of course it doesn't it's just another meaningless factor that people try to cling to in order to make sense out of things they can't explain.

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I don't think that the "average voter" is as braindead as some of you guys think when it comes to voting.

I concur. We never give the average voter any credit, and that's just plain silly.

It's ludicrous to believe anything like that. KOS-MOS although normally weak was absent from the Spring Contest, Albedo still bombed to all hell. Ryu? Gone. Bison? LOL. Samus? Gone. Ridley? X ****ing D.

Unless I'm mistaken, none of those had participated in a Summer Contest before that. So we have no idea of their strength in a character contest -- quite likely they'd do even worse.

As for Sephiroth not increasing, he and Cloud have never seemed to be as closely linked as other heroes and villains. Also, Sephiroth anti-voting and the other reasons already put forth.

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Wow, I can't believe this is even being argued. If you're a fan of the Mario series, you'd like that series to do well in contests, right? In the Villain Contest, that means you vote for the Mario villain. In the Summer, you vote for Mario. It's not very complicated.
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Mega Man will win the Summer Contest, Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix, and Dr. Lampowitz will find the cure.

And, may I ask, why wouldn't Mario fans vote for Bowser in the Summer as well?
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ZSB [aX]

Why just Bowser and Gdorf? Shouldn't Sephiroth have gotten a boost for representing FFVII? Liquid for MGS? Luca Blight for SuikII?

I asked the same question in the last topic, and got no response. This is, of course, due to some people attaching a dumbassed reason onto Ganon and Bowser's performances while disregarding everyone else because they didn't fare nearly as well. Ganon/Bowser getting series boosts but not Liquid or Ridley is ludicrous.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Unless I'm mistaken, none of those had participated in a Summer Contest before that. So we have no idea of their strength in a character contest -- quite likely they'd do even worse.

The point is, Samus a top contender in the Summer contest is excluded from the Villians contest for obvious reasons. Now going by the logic he was saying, OBVIOUSLY, people would rally around Ridley in the absense of Samus due to Franchise voting, right? Wrong. It's not the case at all. Remember, Bowser in the Spring indicates him performing BETTER than Mario. We all know that isn't true. So if it WAS franchise voting, you could make a case saying Ridley would be BETTER than Samus.

So by saying they've never been in a character contest before is negligible, if it's all about the Franchise, which it obviously isn't.

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But if you're a fan from the Mario series, why wouldn't you vote for Bowser too, even if Mario is in the contest?

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

In the Summer, you vote for Mario and the Mario villain.
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not only Ridley, but also Dr. Wily, Sigma, and Robotnik. those guys didn't perform anywhere NEAR their respective heroes.
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From: Acronym | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Wow, I can't believe this is even being argued.

Because it's a stupid point and a stupid assumption to make? Clearly, if Ganon and Bowser got such large boosts for representing their respective series, then Liquid Snake should not have underperformed by 10% against the same character the Ganon and Bowser allegedly overperformed against.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

As for contest strength, I'm more inclined to believe that the anomaly is on Sephiroth's end instead of Bowser's and Ganondorf's. The only exception is Liquid, but I think he pulled a choke that makes DK look good.
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From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:15:31 PM | Message Detail
And, may I ask, why wouldn't Mario fans vote for Bowser in the Summer as well?

Because once Mario and Bowser are in a bracket together, they're only allowed to support one of them. The villain contest clearly proves this.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Wow, I can't believe this is even being argued. If you're a fan of the Mario series, you'd like that series to do well in contests, right? In the Villain Contest, that means you vote for the Mario villain. In the Summer, you vote for Mario. It's not very complicated.

I provided the link the dictionary.com next to the word logical for a reason y'know.

There is no reason for them to not also vote for Bowser in the Summer contest. Simply because they are voting for Mario, doesn't mean that they can no longer vote for Bowser.

It's not like it's 64 characters, and you have to choose one in a giant free for all. Hell if it was, CATS would have a shot at winning. It's 1 v 1 matches, so unless the two are facing each other head on, there is absolutely no reason to not vote for Bowser, along with Mario in the Summer.

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I don't really see the point in this argument, is it so difficult to understand that Bowser and Ganon rose, Sephiroth fell and Liquid is just a weak bastard?

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

From: cyko | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:17:04 PM | Message Detail | #083
not only Ridley, but also Dr. Wily, Sigma, and Robotnik. those guys didn't perform anywhere NEAR their respective heroes.

Heh, I know, I just didn't want to beat a dead horse. But apparently my point still didn't get through.

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Ulti, stop with your satirical bad ass self, you're confusing Acronym.

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Throw out the match with Liquid, Seph decreases (which we saw from 03 to 04, so it isn't that hard to believe), Ganon and Bowser increase from 2003 (due to new games possibly), SpC2K5 is solved.
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Or you can take the more obvious route and say Sephiroth vs. Liquid is a case of SFF.

"OMG! They were both on the PS1! OBVIOUS SFF! Just like Link/Mega Man!"
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.

And, may I ask, why wouldn't Mario fans vote for Bowser in the Summer as well?

You don't have to like Bowser just because he's in the series. Maybe you think he's an average villain, not that good a character, or maybe he's up against another favorite. But in the Spring, he has the whole fanbase behind him.

Why just Bowser and Gdorf? Shouldn't Sephiroth have gotten a boost for representing FFVII? Liquid for MGS? Luca Blight for SuikII?

FFVII is a series? As far as I can tell, Sephiroth has always had almost all of the FFVII fanbase behind him, and I didn't see that changing. Liquid, aside from being one of two MGS villains, doesn't feature as prominently in his series, wouldn't be as known to people who were only casual fans of it, and MGS doesn't have as large and committed a fanbase as Zelda or Mario anyway. That would seem to be an important part of the whole idea.

I don't understand the question in regards to Luca Blight.
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Mega Man will win the Summer Contest, Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix, and Dr. Lampowitz will find the cure.

>>>XD

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You're still not making sense Acronym...
If you think he is a lame character and thus you don't vote for him in the summer contest, why would you suddenly vote for him in the spring contest?

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

not only Ridley, but also Dr. Wily, Sigma, and Robotnik. those guys didn't perform anywhere NEAR their respective heroes.

They don't have to perform anywhere near their respective heroes to still have received a minor boost from franchise voting. Ganondorf could still have received the boost even though we all know that he was nowhere near Link's strength.

And, may I ask, why wouldn't Mario fans vote for Bowser in the Summer as well?

Because they may have other Mario characters they prefer, such as Yoshi, Luigi, and Mario -- all of whom they will vote for without voting for Bowser. If all of these characters were to lose, then they might vote for Bowser because he's now representing the Mario series. Take the 2002 contest. After Mario beat Cloud, many Cloud fans gathered around Crono and voted for him, even though they might have voted for Mario had the match happened at a different point in the contest. Obviously the analogy isn't exact, but the point I'm trying to make is that people will vote for characters more or less given different situations.

And once again, I'm not saying that everyone does this. I think very few voters would think this way, but there are undoubtedly some. Enough, combined with the other factors, to make a difference.

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**Congratulations Naye745: Most closely predicted the release of the Summer Contest 2005 Bracket**

"Because Mario is not in this bracket, I will vote for Bowser! And I wouldn't have done this in the first place, either!"

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Ugh, whatever. I can't possibly argue with all of you.
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Mega Man will win the Summer Contest, Alistair Overeem will win the Grand Prix, and Dr. Lampowitz will find the cure.

I'm gonna go ahead and go out on the ledge here.

Acronym passed Kindergarten.

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From: Acronym | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:26:25 PM | Message Detail
Ugh, whatever. I can't possibly argue with all of you.

Being wrong can do that.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus