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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 150
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:29:09 AM | Message Detail
NEW LINK'D

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm




*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: CapnAmerica | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:30:54 AM | Message Detail
Yo wat up foo.

First?
---
GOD Bless And Keep It Fresh
KeepinItFresh since uhh... hell I don't know.
From: Nobody9090 | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:33:18 AM | Message Detail
Will Squall beat Vincent??
From: greatone10 | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:37:50 AM | Message Detail
Yes
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BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Never eat a stoner. We have powers you havent even seen!
From: Meow1000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:39:24 AM | Message Detail
This is my first post ever in one of these topics.

Is Sonic > Megaman really THAT bad of a pick?

---
Signature? What signature? *Hides*
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:05:04 AM | Message Detail
no, of course it isn't. It's never downright bad to take 2 characters in the top 9 and say they could beat one another.

...unless they are the top 3 characters, in which case you can't even compare them to the 4-9.
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Nope. God himself couldn't beat Sephiroth. FFVII Fanboys outnumber Christians. ~ jkmill550
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:12:29 AM | Message Detail
I still cant decide who my last two final fourers are...
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:13:46 AM | Message Detail
Is Sonic > Megaman really THAT bad of a pick?

I think it is, yes.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Nobody9090 | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:21:21 AM | Message Detail
SPRING 2005 Contest Information
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Not summer....
---
I've run out of sick leave so I'm calling in dead.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:28:59 AM | Message Detail
:O

The big 150!
---
Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:27:37 AM | Message Detail
HOORAY FOO-FIGHTERS.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:27:53 AM | Message Detail
And no one should ever rely on hype to win a match. That's just stupidity at its finest. Most of the board has convinced themselves that Twilight Princess hype is what will win Link the contest this year, absolutely hilarious.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:27:58 AM | Message Detail
Finall at 150!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:28:35 AM | Message Detail
Samus > *
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:30:18 AM | Message Detail
And no one should ever rely on hype to win a match. That's just stupidity at its finest. Most of the board has convinced themselves that Twilight Princess hype is what will win Link the contest this year, absolutely hilarious.

I'm on board with you 100%

Link and Cloud can go back and forth from year to year with no real reason at all. When the match up between the two is that close, it's ludicrous to think that Hype for a game is going to do more for a character (even though it will do none at all) than a movie based on arguably the most popular game of all time.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:30:31 AM | Message Detail
How could so many of you never have heard of the Bismark?

I mean come on, I thought it was general knowledge.
---
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:30:50 AM | Message Detail
Yeesh, you guys really did a number on the last topic. It'll take me a few minutes to get back on track.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:30:50 AM | Message Detail
Squall also looked as if he was on the decline in the past Contest, while all you can do is hope that Magus was over-rated in the 2003 Contest.

You do realize that there was a serious potential for Alucard to be underrated in the 2003 stats, right? If you adjust him, which in turn brings up Kirby and Bomberman, it actually predicts Squall's matches rather perfectly. It also predicts Ganon/Alucard that happened that year perfectly.

I would claim it as an underperformance before I would ever say that Squall dropped. There was no reason for him to do so and the aforementioned adjustments tend to bring everything together rather nicely.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:30:58 AM | Message Detail
Hooray Foo Fighters, indeed.


I have no problem with using hype as a MINOR factor in a match, but almost all other things should be considered first. In this contest with Link, one should consider FF:AC before that.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:31:05 AM | Message Detail
No, general knowledge is how incredibly unsexy Ulti is.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:31:32 AM | Message Detail
Well, hype can't really hurt a character until the game is released and people find out how good/bad the game is. There are certainly many more relevant factors.
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Highland general (and Heavy Champion) Seed makes his Godlike debut - can he take down the mighty Fou-Lu? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:32:58 AM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 5:13:46 AM | #008
Is Sonic > Megaman really THAT bad of a pick?

I think it is, yes.

~*ST*~


I second that.


From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 7/3/2005 5:05:04 AM | #006
no, of course it isn't. It's never downright bad to take 2 characters in the top 9 and say they could beat one another.

...unless they are the top 3 characters, in which case you can't even compare them to the 4-9.


Magus over Samus. Book it.
---
SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: cyko | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:33:45 AM | Message Detail
the Foo Fighters are indeed awesome. ^_^

and as far as Ganondorf vs. Auron goes, another big reasoning in favor of Auron is whether or not you believe Auron could beat Tidus. i for one sincerely believe that Auron would be able to take down Tidus and that his position in the x-stats is lower than it should be due to losing to Cloud and Sephiroth previously. so, if you believe that Auron would beat Tidus, like i do, than he should also be able to take down Ganondorf, who went toe to toe with Tidus.

really, the only think keeping me from siding completely with Auron is the question of how much Ganon has gained since SC2K3, especially after his fantastic performance this past spring. so basically, if you think Auron would beat Tidus, then it's nowhere near absurd to think that Auron could also beat Ganon.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:34:24 AM | Message Detail
No doubt that it can't hurt a character, and I'd even be willing to say it would help more than it could ever hurt, that is if I had to choose between the two. However, I don't think it is even plausible to take into consideration.

On an unrelated note, my extreme Squall fanboyism still hasn't blinded me into taking him over Magus. I'm proud of myself.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:34:29 AM | Message Detail
Magus over Samus. Book it.

Yes, I'll book funeral plans with your bracket right away. :-)
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (190 Signs!)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:35:42 AM | Message Detail
the most popular game of all time

Is not Final Fantasy 7. I think that it's Myst, but don;t quote me on that.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:35:51 AM | Message Detail
I think Tidus would beat Auron, but it's thinking like that that gave us those wonderful SFF matches last year in the Triforce division.

But yeah, Ganon > Tidus > Auron to me.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:36:14 AM | Message Detail
*hands Tai sarcasm detector*

*spastically* CAN I?!? CAN I?!? CAN I?!? SUH-WEET!!!

TAI'D UP AND HANG'D
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SC2K5 bracket: Samus over Snake, Crono over Megaman, Samus over Crono; Link over Sephiroth
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:36:43 AM | Message Detail
I don't think it's possible for Tai to get any cornier.

>____>

I for one think that Auron is underranked, and could have a legitimate shot at taking out Tidus, however I still think Ganon will pull it out in a tight as hell match. </unintended innuendo>

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:37:04 AM | Message Detail
Here's my post from a few days ago explaining why I don't see Dante receiving a DMC3 boost and not defeating Vincent:

The more I think about it, the more I see Dante not getting much of a boost from Devil May Cry 3. Poor sales and not much buzz. The only talk I heard was of its "insane difficulty." It had no more hype than Devil May Cry 2 and will be lucky to get half the sales.

Of course, one argument against this would be Vergil's solid performance in the Spring Contest, to which I say, "what the hell?" I had no idea 64% against a guy NOBODY knows (with one of the worst picture mismatches in history, I might add) was all that impressive. If anything, Vergil's ability to keep Sephiroth from netting 79% is more impressive, and he did that with his, surprise surprise, Devil May Cry 1 picture.

Dante getting a 1 seed seems to be more credible evidence to me, but let's really look at this for a second. Nominations were open for two days. The skeleton guy got in because of Shake. The King of all Cosmos (bless his soul) got in because of the crazy people on this board. Dante likely got his seeding because of the people currently playing (or who have just recently played) DMC3, but as we all know, strength in nominations does not equal strength in the contest, and with the extremely short nomination period we had this year, it's all the more reason to put little faith in them.

I love Dante. He's cool, he's badass, and he's in a new game that has been warmly received. I know nothing about Vincent except that he's FFVII's resident "cool guy," and that's more than enough for me. FFVII is the one entity on this site that has failed to disappoint in the three years we've had contests (unless we count Mario/Cloud 2002), and if I'm going to doubt it, it has to give me reason to do so.

At this point, the only thing worrying me about Vincent is HM's vehement support.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:37:21 AM | Message Detail
Magus over Samus. Book it.

Yo...you....you're joking right? He would have to beat Crono for that to happen. Please tell me you're joking.
---
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:38:12 AM | Message Detail
Crap, my sarcasm detector needs to be retuned it seems.
---
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From: cyko | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:38:17 AM | Message Detail
heh, i just realized that i'm actually wearing a Foo Fighters t-shirt right now. ^_^

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:38:29 AM | Message Detail
Er, Tai... Slow was making fun of the reasoning of the poster he was quoting. Only a favorites bracket would have Magus over Samus.

Unless HM decides to replay Chrono Trigger, in which case Magus is our new champion.
---
If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em...
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: Phediuk | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:38:39 AM | Message Detail
I think that Bowser and Ganondorf doing so well on Sephiroth was due to Sephy getting weaker, not the other two getting stronger.

Why do I say this? Because I will not believe that Bowser is stronger than Mario. I won't do it. You can drag me, kicking and screaming, and force it down my throat, but I still won't buy into it.

Since Sephiroth was such a ridiculous favorite to win the contest, I say it's possible that he was anti-voted to make the contest less predictable. Remember, there was somewhere in the vicinity of 25,000 brackets, and I'll say that 20,000 of those are unique. Now, I'd imagine that almost all of those people would be voting in the contest...

...Sephiroth anti-voting does not seem particularly farfetched to me, especially when three quarters of the brackets had him winning (hell, even in 2003, only 40% had Link winning), many people didn't have him winning out of blind hope but knew he was probably going to be the champion anyway...

...Of course, none of this affects the casuals who didn't make a bracket and don't keep a close eye on the contests, or people who like Sephiroth. But the fact of the matter is that there were many, many people out there who were aware that Sephiroth was going to win, and that it was a hopeless effort for anyone else.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:39:34 AM | Message Detail
At this point, the only thing worrying me about Vincent is HM's vehement support.

It scares me too. ;.;

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:40:05 AM | Message Detail
A whole hell of a lot of bands > Foo Fighters.

If anything, Vergil's ability to keep Sephiroth from netting 79% is more impressive, and he did that with his, surprise surprise, Devil May Cry 1 picture.

Damn, great minds truly do think alike. I don't ever remember reading that post and said the same thing a little while ago.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:40:51 AM | Message Detail
Auron's expected to get 48.33% against Ganon 2k3 based off of Tails 2k4...and 50.67% based off of Scorpion 2k3. Lord knows there's been arguments if Tidus >or=or< Auron, too, and they're almost certainly pretty close to each other as-is.

Don't under-estimate Auron.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:40:57 AM | Message Detail
No one should think Bowser is stronger than Mario. It's obvious to see that Seph has dropped between the years. (From almost 49% on Cloud to 44% even.) Re-do the match and Mario gets 44-45%
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:41:29 AM | Message Detail
Unless HM decides to replay Chrono Trigger, in which case Magus is our new champion.

You know, if you people insist of saying this all the time I would appreciate if you got the character I like the most from the game right.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Phediuk | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:41:30 AM | Message Detail
Err, by "20,000 are unique", I meant that they were made by 20,000 different people.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:42:01 AM | Message Detail
Tidus can perform better then Auron....but in a direct matchup between the two, I think that the match would be similar to Snake/Raiden (Older, disgruntled men are more liked then younger, happier bishounen). Reverse Same Fanbase Factor has it's only shot of occuring here.
---
Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:42:01 AM | Message Detail
A whole hell of a lot of bands > Foo Fighters.

LIAR! LIAR! LLLIIIAAARRR!!! ALL LIES!!!
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Knuckles
Serious Reminder: Vote for Tifa Lockheart, too
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:43:09 AM | Message Detail
There's no doubt that Seph has declined in throughout the years, because you'd have to be clinically insane (=p) to ever think Bowser was stronger than Mario.

However, it doesn't have to just be, Seph's decline, or Bowser and Ganon's incline, it could be a mixture of the two, and that's what I personally believe.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: cyko | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:43:19 AM | Message Detail

You know, if you people insist of saying this all the time I would appreciate if you got the character I like the most from the game right.


alright. i will fix it:

Unless HM decides to replay Chrono Trigger, in which case Gato is our new champion.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:44:18 AM | Message Detail
OH SNAP

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:44:21 AM | Message Detail
The problem I have with Auron>Gannon is that it assumes that Auron's strength is somehow tied in with Tidus, and that Tidus stayed the same, and Gannon is just weak. That makes Gannons run in the spring contest make no sense at all.
---
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:45:32 AM | Message Detail
I really wish Naked Snake wasn't so damn identical to Solid... it would be too much fun taking Zelda over Solid.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:46:09 AM | Message Detail
However, it doesn't have to just be, Seph's decline, or Bowser and Ganon's incline, it could be a mixture of the two, and that's what I personally believe.

Regardless, it still doesn't make Vergil look impressive. I still think Dante will have little trouble beating Vincent, but I think that's because vincent will do worse then expected, not because Dante increased significantly.
---
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:47:15 AM | Message Detail
Unless HM decides to replay Chrono Trigger, in which case Gato is our new champion.

That's better.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
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