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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 149
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 2:56:36 AM | Message Detail
David Boreanaz .... Squall Leonhart

OH GOD YES. David is the perfect voice for that man.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:03:16 AM | Message Detail
Technically, anyone that can voice elipses is a perfect match.

...
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:08:50 AM | Message Detail
These claims that the villain contest have no bearing on the summer contest are absolutely absurd. You guys are overthinking the hell out of this and acting as if most voters do anything more than pick their favorite character and move on their lives afterwards. Bowser is only stronger because he represented Mario? Ganon is only stronger because he represented Zelda?

Do you guys honestly think that enough people felt that way (or even pay enough attention to these contests) to give those two characters a magical, one-time-only boost out of no where? And while noting that Liquid Snake, the entire Triforce Division sans Ganon, Master Hand, Kuja, Mother Brain and others all performed like complete crap?

That doesn't make any sense. It assumes that thousands of people (or at least, enough to make the difference that some are claiming) have followed all of these contests, realized that the heroes weren't there and gave extra power to a couple of select villains to compensate.

Next to no one outside of our board would do such a thing. Use some common sense.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:12:12 AM | Message Detail
Hey Ulti, who would you take in a match to-day, Ganon or Magus?

Personal bias aside, or as much as possible >_>

I think I'd go with Ganon. I went with him in 2003, and it nearly worked out <_<

Woahmg. Late night Board 8 stinks :(
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:18:24 AM | Message Detail
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 6:03:16 AM | Message Detail
Technically, anyone that can voice elipses is a perfect match.


Yeah, for Crono.

Speaking of which, everyone who liked Crono and/or Chrono Trigger needs to play Suikoden 2. The main character of Suikoden 2 does the mute protagonist thing far better than Crono does, because the game actually makes you feel like the character; I don't feel like Crono while playing CT, despite this being the purpose of having any lead in an RPG be a mute.

There are several dialogues in both games in which you're given a choice of what to say, and it's no contest: Suikoden 2 takes its lead more seriously than CT takes Crono. Crono is a rather lame attempt at such a character, while the Suikoden 2 lead makes me feel like I'm in the middle of a wonderful CYOA. I'm not even bashing Crono as much as it sounds, but I would suggest Suikoden 2 to anyone who played CT. I don't think you'll be disappointed.

Oh and rate my recent purchases: Sonic Mega Collection, Suikoden 3, Eternal Mana.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:32:03 AM | Message Detail
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 6:12:12 AM | Message Detail
Hey Ulti, who would you take in a match to-day, Ganon or Magus?

Personal bias aside, or as much as possible >_>


Tough, tough choice. If we had that match in this contest, I'd pick Magus. Hardly anyone knew who Magus was in 2003, yet he won anyway. Ganon has likely increased since then, but note that Crono has more or less increased year to year at the same rate as Link. He'd be projected to score 37.43% in 2002, 38.14% in 2003, and scored 37.18% on Link in 2004 once they had an actual match. The Xsts make Crono look the same every year, but when you compare this to the fact that Link has gone up quite a bit between 2002 and 2004 and at the fact that Crono's number has stayed the same in proportion to a souped up Link.

The point here is that though Link and Ganon have increased, so has Crono. To assume that Crono's increase (the CT stigma over the past three years of these contests) won't benefit Magus (and to a lesser extent, Frog) due to us only having 2003 data on Magus is fallacy and is only being argued by a couple of Squall's fans anyway. Crono has increased with almost the same proportion to Link. Frog nearly scored 49% on Solid Snake. CT held a lead on Final Fantasy 7 before being hit by SFF. And Magus is going to magically be left out of all of this? I assure you, my sig will change after Squall gets his face kicked in. It will be a link to the poll results page of Magus/Squall with PWNED in big black letters.

But yeah, I'd pick Magus to beat Ganon. After Twilight Princess, I'd pick Ganon without thinking twice. The effect that this game could have on these contests is downright scary. We're talking about Link scoring 65% on Sephiroth.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:34:45 AM | Message Detail
I was going to make a "Why Magus will kick the crap out of Squall" topic and bring up those same numbers, but then I realized that I would change some people's minds and essentially leave myself with less people to laugh at come match time. Really, people can think that Squall has a chance all they wish. More fuel on the fire.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:38:21 AM | Message Detail
It's not like we haven't seen one character increase while another from the same game decreases before, even if it is rare. The real problem lies in the fact that we haven't seen anything from Magus since 2k3. That's a gives him a long time to either decrease or increase a good deal. Still I'd also take him over Gannon at this point in time, although I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Gannon pull off a victory.
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From: voltch | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:39:40 AM | Message Detail
i feel the devil division is going to fuel the biggest arguments once the matches get underway.i can see it now people accusing characters of cheating,others fighting on what the result of a match means and others yelling they want to go back in time and change their bracket
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:41:00 AM | Message Detail
Are there any examples of that outside of Cloud/Sephiroth, which I don't even believe is valid in the first place?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:41:58 AM | Message Detail
Hm.

How much do you think Ganon has increased by?

We don't have accurate stats for him, so for all I know, Link has increased a little more than Crono, due to Crono not hiting that 38% threshhold by around 1%. So Magus, at the ceeling of his increase would share the same sized increase as Crono, right? But Ganon could share the same size increase as Link, which is seemingly a greater one than Crono's.

We really have no reliable numbers for Ganondorf, except his Spring matches.

Ooooh, how I wish Ganon/Magus 2 had been set up.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:46:52 AM | Message Detail
Well it isn't exactly the same, but Auron stayed at roughly the same amount while Tidus took a complete dive in the stats. Then again Tidus losing in the first round to someone who lost in the second, to someone who lost in the third, to some who lost in the fifth can have quite a profound effect on how accurate those stats are. Then again Tidus Magus and Gannon were so close in the stats that I don't think the ammount of matches created that many inaccuracies.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:49:04 AM | Message Detail
Also unless Mario has increased to being better then sephiroth, Bowser has gone up hugely in the last two years, while Mario has taken a small drop.
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From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:52:40 AM | Message Detail
Or Sephiroth has dropped.

A bit of both, most likely. Sephiroth is no where near as powerful as he was in 2003, none of the new-school Sqaure characters are. Or at least I think so.

This makes the Tidus drop last year more plausible, while not really hurting Ganon OR Magus. Did Squall drop or increase from 2003 ---> 2004?

This is a goddamn pain in the ass.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 3:57:19 AM | Message Detail
I just now realized that the Adjusted 2004 Xsts assume no SFF in Yoshi/Luigi. Luigi should be able to beat KOS-MOS with ease after knowing that.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 4:08:16 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi beat Luigi with less than 55% of the vote. Any SFF would have been very minor.
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From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/3/2005 4:12:53 AM | Message Detail
Auron over Ganondorf is a very dangerous, yet very rewarding pick to make.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 4:18:43 AM | Message Detail
Gannondorf would have to be a good deal weaker then he's showed signs of in any contest (minus link. Gannon of course) to lose out to Auron. I don't see it happening, but that's just me.
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 4:37:59 AM | Message Detail
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:08:16 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi beat Luigi with less than 55% of the vote. Any SFF would have been very minor.


Well yes, but even a minor underestimation by the 2004 Xsts gives Luigi the boost he needs for a cushion. Add in bracket voting and company affiliations and he should be fine.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 5:01:08 AM | Message Detail
I don't think when two characters are that close in the stats (KOS-MOS and Luigi that is) something that minor will have much effect on the outcome. There comes a point where two characters are just so close, that it really isn't possible to know which one is stronger. Then again for all we know Luigi is still at his 2k3 value (remember yoshi got SFF'd to the point where him and Luigi had hard to pin down cvhanges) in which case KOS-MOS loses by a fair bit. Personally I don't buy bracket voting or company affiliation giving characters a noticable boost.
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From: voltch | Posted: 7/3/2005 7:05:40 AM | Message Detail
after watching AC trailers i think it will be hard for it to not give cloud or any other ff 7 char a boost. there's just to much action and people who are under 20 like mostly action so i think a boost from that might give cloud an edge over link's unreleased but hyped TP
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:22:58 AM | Message Detail
People voted based on who was the better villain? That's news to me. Last I checked, Master Hand beat Kuja. And when did you HEAR anyone talking about voting based on who was the better villain? It looks to me like an excuse when things didn't go the way they were expected. The villain contest was just a popularity contest featuring exclusively villains. Nothing more, nothing less. I would say most voters based their votes on who was liked better.

Because MH beat Kuja..heh, that's your opinion, but apart from that, it's good to know that someone other then me (you and Ulti) see something wrong with how people are trying to put the Villians contest under a rug for discussion in the Summer Contests. It's not amusing, at all. All signs point to Ganondorf, stop trying to deny them.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:36:55 AM | Message Detail
Personally I made Ganondorf the base of everything.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:42:59 AM | Message Detail
I think saying the villain contest has no bearing on the summer contest is even worse then those saying that Vercetti will flop this year because GTA fans will now back CJ. That logic would only apply to a Vercetti vs. CJ match and nothing else. If they were going to vote for Vercetti last year, they'll still vote for him this year. Thinking that having two GTA characters in the contest means they'll stop voting for Vercetti is beyond stupid.
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From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/3/2005 8:59:18 AM | Message Detail
Can you imagine how much of a dick I'm going to act like all throughout Magus's beating of Squall? At this point, I'm just archiving every pro-Squall post I can find.

It's fine to be a dick if others were being a dick about saying Squall will beat Magus, but you're just making an ass of yourself if you actlike a dick towards others who picked Squall. To say that Squall has no chance at all of winning is being delusional. While most would consider it an unlikely event, you can't put down people who picked him as an upset special but didn't gloat how Squall will win decidedly.

And the more and more I think about it, the Devil Division just keeps seeming more and more like Division 128 from Spc2k4. Magus is like FFX in the sense that most people expect him to win the division. Squall is like SSBM in that Squall over Magus is a great upset pick that most consider unlikely. Vincent is like StarCraft (sorry, Kerrigan is NOT like StarCraft) in that he could walk out of the division or lose a close one early, though the major difference being there is no equivalent of Halo to give a first-round nailbiter. That would leave Dante to be the Kingdom Hearts. Ok, the analogy isn't perfect, but I think I've made my point.

Let me state that I do NOT expect the results of the Devil Division to play out exactly as Division 128 did in the above analogy (in fact, I would be quite surprised if it did). I just wanted to make an interesting comparison and see what people thought of it.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:05:53 AM | Message Detail
People who are picking squall to upset magus really aren't thinking. Squall UNDERPERFORMED last year, magus... well we really don't know but there is nothing to suggest he dropped to the magnitude that he would have to if squall were to win the match. There are far better upset picks to look at than squall over magus (Bowser/Snake for one).
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Man I hate signitures. It's impossible to decide what to put here!
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:07:19 AM | Message Detail
So torn on Kefka/Vercetti. I think Tommy is the type of character who would lose support (albeit minor) each year until fading away. But Kefka is... Kefka. I know it is only one point, but I love both characters too...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:08:03 AM | Message Detail
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 11:42:59 AM | Message Detail
I think saying the villain contest has no bearing on the summer contest is even worse then those saying that Vercetti will flop this year because GTA fans will now back CJ. That logic would only apply to a Vercetti vs. CJ match and nothing else. If they were going to vote for Vercetti last year, they'll still vote for him this year. Thinking that having two GTA characters in the contest means they'll stop voting for Vercetti is beyond stupid.


I fully agree. It's like assuming that Cloud will no longer be anything once FF12 comes out.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:09:46 AM | Message Detail
I think Tommy is the type of character who would lose support (albeit minor) each year until fading away.

That's the belief I've been holding onto for over a year. With the release of San Andreas and Kefka gaining more contest experience, now's as good a time as any to test it out.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:10:11 AM | Message Detail
It's fine to be a dick if others were being a dick about saying Squall will beat Magus, but you're just making an ass of yourself if you actlike a dick towards others who picked Squall. To say that Squall has no chance at all of winning is being delusional. While most would consider it an unlikely event, you can't put down people who picked him as an upset special but didn't gloat how Squall will win decidedly.

Is this the only topic on the board that you're reading? People may be professional in this topic (mostly), but that's definitely not the case elsewhere. Though I did make a mistake in one of the sentences you quoted.

I'm just archiving every stupid pro-Squall post I can find.

Fixed.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:16:29 AM | Message Detail
Hey Ulti, how much memory does "buying" old PS1 games like Suiko2 and Valkyrie Profile take up?
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ZSB [aX]
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:18:46 AM | Message Detail
Each disc is under 750 MB, so for Suikoden I and II... under 750, and for VP, under 1.5 gigs.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:19:02 AM | Message Detail
ISOs are about half a gig each. Really, unless you have a gigantic hard drive (mine is 80 gigs) you're better off putting these things on CD-ROMs. Suikoden 1 and 2 alone will take up about a gig, maybe a little less. I can only imagine how much space the two Lunars will take up.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:23:02 AM | Message Detail
Ulti, do you have any thoughts on Luca?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:24:28 AM | Message Detail
Well, Lunar: EB takes up almost 2.2 Gigs for the 3 game discs... don't know about SSSC.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:24:38 AM | Message Detail
What's with all the talk of Magus would beat Squall without much thought?

Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

Note that I also have Magus over Squall, but I'm just saying.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Starion | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:25:06 AM | Message Detail
But what about the secrets you can obtain only by having a Suiko1 file? Did buying a copy of Suikoden2 fix that problem as well?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:25:27 AM | Message Detail
Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

You're completely correct. Next to 0% in both cases.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:25:55 AM | Message Detail
2.2 gigs and no voice acting?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:26:08 AM | Message Detail
Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

Which is exactly why I'm still fully confident in having Magus over Squall.
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From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:27:54 AM | Message Detail
Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

That's right: NONE.

XStats favor Ganoondarf heavily through direct matches with Sephiroth. You lose.

Magus..is just near-elite. Squall..is just not.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:27:55 AM | Message Detail
I've also heard that Gmail is a nice way to store all sorts of ISO's by making multiple accounts and writing down all your account names. Personally I just throw them onto a blank DVD like I do with practically everything else I still want when my Harddrive fills up.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:28:05 AM | Message Detail
You're completely correct. Next to 0% in both cases.

I guess those matches are like Tidus vs. Shadow, where Shadow will keep it close, but doesn't really have a chance on winning.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:28:28 AM | Message Detail
*Ganondorf

Why do I always put an a after the d? X_x
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:29:02 AM | Message Detail
Not sayin' there is no voice acting... just saying it does not play for me. It is probably there, and I just need to do something to get it to work. The cut scenes play fine, it is just that there is no voicing to go with them. Given my inability to understand a computer, and my computer's inability to not suck, I would bet a doughnut the VAs are there just fine.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:29:49 AM | Message Detail
Shadow had a chance, dammit!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:32:39 AM | Message Detail
Shadow had a chance, dammit!

Trust me he never really did. I know this board hates Tidus, but Tidus had the match won when the brackets came out.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:37:22 AM | Message Detail
Also, what's up with this franchise voting? You're trying to say that in the absence of Mario, people are voting for Bowser instead? What would stop them from voting for Mario AND Bowser in a normal contest? Or are you trying to say that there are a significant number of Mario fans who WOULDN'T vote for Bowser over Sephiroth, but in the absence of Mario in the contest, they change their minds and WOULD vote for Bowser against Sephiroth? I don't buy that for a minute.

My thoughts exactly, it's ignorant to believe anything else. Like you said, just because Mario is in the contest along with Bowser, that's not doing anything to stop people from still voting Bowser, unless of course it was a head to head match. People who believe that must have a hard time putting 1 and 1 together as well.

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From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:37:43 AM | Message Detail
Trust me he never really did. I know this board hates Tidus, but Tidus had the match won when the brackets came out.

True, true. I laughed a lot that match. :-)
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:41:31 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't call losing by 1500 votes "having no chance". Sure, the odds were against him, but Shadow had a small chance to make that upset.
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