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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 149
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:45:03 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't call losing by 1500 votes "having no chance". Sure, the odds were against him, but Shadow had a small chance to make that upset.

That match wasn't interesting. That match had to been the most boring match where the winner ended up with less than 51%. The only thing that kept me watching the boards was all the anti-Tidus people whinning.
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:47:48 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I agree. I watched most of the poll hoping for a Shadow comeback. Then again, all close matches can't be a CT/LttP.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:58:58 AM | Message Detail
You're completely correct. Next to 0% in both cases.

You have no right to call someone delusional.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/3/2005 9:59:05 AM | Message Detail
Since I wasn't here, did I miss anything that Ceej explained about the nominations and bracket setup this year? Seems like a lot of big snubs, with Aeris, Shadow, Tails, and Liquid out.

Also, seems like Kerrigan missed the spring contest cause Ceej didn't take her as a villain... I mean, 4th seed here shows how much support she had. Shame she's gonna get killed by Vinny.

Also, Terra vs. Dante. Leon, I know you disagreed with me on that one, so what's your argument? What I say is, Dante's absolute floor as far as strength is Kirby. And that's assuming he got next to nothing in the way of a boost from DMC3. I have a hard time believing that Terra is that much above Kefka, at or above Sora's level, or able to compete in a close match with Auron, Tidus, and Squall.

Also. It occurs to me that if Vincent vs. Kerrigan and Tidus vs. The King switched places in the bracket, this contest would be even harder to predict. Pity.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:00:36 AM | Message Detail
Ceej explained nozing.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:01:01 AM | Message Detail
And that's assuming he got next to nothing in the way of a boost from DMC3.

That's a very good assumption, actually. DMC3 sold poor enough where a boost is not likely at this point.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:02:33 AM | Message Detail
I think Vergil's performance shows that DMC3 will at least garner a significant boost for Dante.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:02:50 AM | Message Detail
How poorly didit sell in comparison to other DMC games? Also out of curiosity where do you find all that information from in game sales? I try googling it whenever I want a certain game's sales but can only find something irrelevent like it's sales in it's first week at the very most.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:03:29 AM | Message Detail
I think Vergil's performance shows that DMC3 will at least garner a significant boost for Dante.

What, you mean the whole twenty percent he got on sephy?
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:05:39 AM | Message Detail
That's a very good assumption, actually. DMC3 sold poor enough where a boost is not likely at this point.

True, but it obviously boosted his noms, as his placement as a one seed shows. Also, it got Vergil into the contest (even if he wasn't too strong). Low sales can't completely rule out the popularity of a game here... Look at Vyse, a middle-of-the-road guy as far as strength in these contests, but from a game that did not sell so wonderfully.

My hesitation in saying "DMC3 will absolutely give a boost to Dante" is remembering all the games that should have done that in past years to other characters, but didn't. For example, Metroid Prime. And either way, that argument still stands. Dante is no slouch even at his 2k4 ranking.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:06:21 AM | Message Detail
What, you mean the whole twenty percent he got on sephy?

You mean the 21 percent that he got on seph, and the 24 percent liquid got on seph?

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:06:36 AM | Message Detail
I think Vergil's performance shows that DMC3 will at least garner a significant boost for Dante.

Yeah, barely getting 20% on Sephiroth and being just above CATS really was impressive.

How poorly didit sell in comparison to other DMC games? Also out of curiosity where do you find all that information from in game sales?

DMC3 has sold 297,000 in its three months out. It sold 14,000 copies for the month of May too. It's no longer selling well enough to even come close to DMC1 and DMC2, both of which sold over a million copies.

And I get these from NPD each month. People who receive them leak them the day after NPD sends them out.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Starion | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:08:45 AM | Message Detail
HM, do you by chance have a master list of games with their amount of copies sold? I saw one on a site several years ago that had a ton of information but that's gone now.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:08:51 AM | Message Detail
You mean the 21 percent that he got on seph, and the 24 percent liquid got on seph?

You do realize that Liquid was projected to get 35.3% against him, right?

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:09:37 AM | Message Detail
wow I rounded down by one percent. What a huge difference that made. Anything seph did to make himself look stronger during the earlier rounds is nullified by his performance against Gannon and Bowser. Liquid snake doing poorly might have been unnexpected, but so was Bowser looking stronger then Solid snake. Sephiroth stayed static at best.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:10:30 AM | Message Detail
Speaking of which, everyone who liked Crono and/or Chrono Trigger needs to play Suikoden 2. The main character of Suikoden 2 does the mute protagonist thing far better than Crono does, because the game actually makes you feel like the character; I don't feel like Crono while playing CT, despite this being the purpose of having any lead in an RPG be a mute.

Suikoden II is indeed awesome. I don't think the main character has as much personality as Crono, but he is good for making you feel like you're in his shoes.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:10:41 AM | Message Detail
HM, do you by chance have a master list of games with their amount of copies sold? I saw one on a site several years ago that had a ton of information but that's gone now.

Unfortunately, I don't have a "master list" of games sold. I could attempt at finding a particular games sales, but nothing I could pull up quickly. I do have many of Nintendo's, Capcom's, Square's, and Namco's million seller titles though.

And I know what site you're talking about. NPD hit them with illegally using their data without permission. They were forced to take it down. It's a shame.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:11:03 AM | Message Detail
No, but I was aware that he was projected to do quite a bit better than he did. So that would be my point, if you're going to accept liquids place on the x-stats, then the would place Vergil not too far behind him.

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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:11:51 AM | Message Detail
You have no right to call someone delusional.

Says the man who thought MMAC would push Mega past Link last year. Stop talking.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:13:00 AM | Message Detail
...Virgil is close to Liquid. A very, very weak Liquid. There's no way someone can logically think that Virgil is close to Liquid's 2004 value.

When all is said and done, Virgil was completely unimpressive. There's no reason to expect any sort of boost from DMC3 based off of him.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:13:10 AM | Message Detail
Not sayin' there is no voice acting... just saying it does not play for me. It is probably there, and I just need to do something to get it to work

In ePSXe,
Config -- > Sound --> Enable XA Sound
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Think fast. Click faster.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:13:10 AM | Message Detail
By the way... assuming you do go by Liquids Adjusted ranking, that would place Vergil right above none other than Dante. I think we can all agree that Vergil is not stronger than Dante.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:13:31 AM | Message Detail
If seph increased enough to make Vergil look good that would put both Gannon and Bowser so ridiculously high it's not even funny.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:14:17 AM | Message Detail
I'm not laughing.

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:14:21 AM | Message Detail
Says the man who thought MMAC would push Mega past Link last year. Stop talking.

Did I call you delusional? No. Are you being just as delusional as I was about Mega Man? Hell yes. You need to stop acting like these characters stand no chance, especially when you just insist on not providing any sort of proof of this "0% chance."

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:14:58 AM | Message Detail
I love it when Ulti and HM go back and forth.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:17:12 AM | Message Detail
I'm not laughing.

I said it's to the point where it's not even funny. Are you agreeing with me now or something?
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:17:48 AM | Message Detail
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 1:14:58 PM | Message Detail
I love it when Ulti and HM go back and forth.


Why, because HM is trying to sink the Bismark with a Needle Gun? I don't understand why a single person would pick Auron to beat Ganon after the villain contest.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:17:54 AM | Message Detail
if you're going to accept liquids place on the x-stats, then the would place Vergil not too far behind him.

You can't accept his place in 2004 unless you believe there is something similar to SFF between FFVII and MGS. But there's simply no way that Virgil did anything to show that there would be a boost of any kind from DMC3. All he did was prove he's a weak bastard.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:18:49 AM | Message Detail
No, I'm still in disagreement with you, although I do believe Liquid's numbers are inflated in 2004, the whole Frog/MC/Liquid/Solid thing still isn't Kosher with me.

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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:18:58 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, Vergil totally sucked in that contest. I'll bet you anything he overperformed on Sephiroth due to the DMC1 pic, too.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:19:51 AM | Message Detail
Using Seph/Liquid to try and make a point is just as crazy as using Link/Mega to make one. Neither match makes much sense and shouldn't be used to make an argument. If you honestly think Vergil is 3% away from Liquid, you have problems.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:20:22 AM | Message Detail
Why, because HM is trying to sink the Bismark with a Needle Gun? I don't understand why a single person would pick Auron to beat Ganon after the villain contest.

That and the loss of all subtleties what-so-ever.

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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:21:20 AM | Message Detail
I can't help being so awesome. I'm like Vyers, only sexier.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:21:31 AM | Message Detail
Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

While I think Squall-over-Magus is plausible, Auron-over-Ganon seems much more likely to me; I've got Ganon and Magus winning those two matches, but I would switch Ganon with Auron before I'd switch Magus with Squall.

XStats favor Ganoondarf heavily through direct matches with Sephiroth. You lose.

Don't be stupid; Auron was SFF'd by Sephiroth and Cloud both. If you wanna try that card, compare Link/Ganon and Cloud/Auron. What's this? It's suddenly a whole new ballgame.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:21:33 AM | Message Detail
Why, because HM is trying to sink the Bismark with a Needle Gun? I don't understand why a single person would pick Auron to beat Ganon after the villain contest.

Perhaps you don't understand, and it would not be surprising, that Ganon did not put up 40%+ against a static Sephiroth. If you think the villain contest was good enough to use for a summer contest then you also need to accept the fact that to many any sense of that match you need to drop Sephiroth down to equal with Samus, which will put Ganon at a minor increase and Bowser gaining far more reasonably. Unless, of course, you want to believe that Ganon is now capable of hanging with Mario, Mega Man, and Sonic.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:22:01 AM | Message Detail
100 bucks says that 95% of people on this board don't even know what the Bismark is. And i'm not referring to Final Fantasy 6.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:22:25 AM | Message Detail
You know what Moltar... no more cheap sex for you. ;.;

>_________>

But yeah, I don't honestly believe that he is only 3% lower than liquid, but I don't think 5% is so mind blowing.

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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:23:25 AM | Message Detail
*figures the Bismark is a ship*

Don't have a clue.
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From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:23:43 AM | Message Detail
Why, because HM is trying to sink the Bismark with a Needle Gun? I don't understand why a single person would pick Auron to beat Ganon after the villain contest.

Kingdom Hearts II. Yes, it's hype. Yes, it most likely won't make a lick of difference this year. There's still a small chance that it'll help, and for some people, a small chance is all they need to take a potential upset.
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:23:55 AM | Message Detail
Squall has about as much of a chance to upset Magus as Auron has to upset Ganondorf.

No he doesn't. The gap between Auron and Ganon is much smaller than the one between Squall and Magus. Squall also looked as if he was on the decline in the past Contest, while all you can do is hope that Magus was over-rated in the 2003 Contest.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:24:09 AM | Message Detail
I'm with HaRRicH on this one.

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From: Tai | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:25:40 AM | Message Detail
Perhaps you don't understand, and it would not be surprising, that Ganon did not put up 40%+ against a static Sephiroth.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2019

Ganon almost got 42% on Sephiroth. What the **** are you talking about?
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:05 AM | Message Detail
Sweet ****ing Jesus. I can't take anyone seriously who thinks hype plays a role in matches. Seriously, who's going to say "Hey, a new Zelda is coming out, now I like Link more than ever before, even though I've never played it!"

Exactly. No one.

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From: cyko | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:09 AM | Message Detail
dang. i did think you were referring to Bismark the Whale. >_>

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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:19 AM | Message Detail
Ganon almost got 42% on Sephiroth. What the **** are you talking about?

Do you not understand the meaning of static?

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:33 AM | Message Detail
The Bismarck was a ship from World War... II? I believe. German. Unless of course you are referring to a tasty pastry.

Mmm doughnut.

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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:42 AM | Message Detail
Tai, what they were saying is that Sephiroth wasn't static; he's almost certainly changed.
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:56 AM | Message Detail
Doughnuts>Bagels

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/3/2005 10:26:58 AM | Message Detail
Foo Fighters > you.
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