It isn't like it matters at all.

---
Nominate Vincent Valentine for the Summer Contest 2005.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php

http://i13-8.thefacebook.com/pics/7/3/n37703708_5406.jpg

Moogle > Chocobo
---
Nope. God himself couldn't beat Sephiroth. FFVII Fanboys outnumber Christians. ~ jkmill550

Have you got a link to the profile of that FaceBook picture?
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

...and the last post is spent on the highest possible note.
---
yoblazer is my god. And your god. But mostly mine since I got PWND by his mad guru skills.
NOMINATE THE KING OF ALL COSMOS

Ok, 53 posts in topic before previous topic hit 500.
---
I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest! *grumble*

Mog > Chocobo >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Frog

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

I was so going to praise Manny and bash FFVIII and you ruined it Janus. RUINED IT.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

We are awesome like that.
---
yoblazer is my god. And your god. But mostly mine since I got PWND by his mad guru skills.
NOMINATE THE KING OF ALL COSMOS

*Rolls the King of all Cosmos up in a Katamari Ball*
---
Yoblazer just kicked my ass!

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/20/2005 7:29:39 PM | Message Detail
Have you got a link to the profile of that FaceBook picture?

That's actually me, HaRRicH ^_^

http://siue.thefacebook.com/profile.php?id=37703708

That's the link it shows me, but I'm not sure if it works for people who aren't logged in... if you're a member or something, you can search for Josh Turck.
---
Nope. God himself couldn't beat Sephiroth. FFVII Fanboys outnumber Christians. ~ jkmill550

Contest soon! Boy, I can't wait.

Just for fun, here are a top-tier few matches that I'd dread to predict...

Samus vs Mario
Sonic vs Solid Snake
Megaman vs Mario
Samus vs Megaman
Solid Snake vs Mario

Any predictions, people?
---
Spring Contest Characters to Kill:
Dr. Robotnik, Master Hand, Diablo

That led me to the general home-page after you log in, actually...but I searched and found ya, heh. I added ya, by the way.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

Samus (though tough)
Sonic
Mario (close but confident)
Samus
Mario
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

#1 Match I want to see this summer, Ganondorf vs Zero
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

Mario
Sonic
Mario
Samus
Mario


---
Commander of The Link Army
Blades will bleed... Shields will shatter... and Link shall WIN... AGAIN!

Ganondorf nearly did better on Sephiroth than Zero did on Mega Man. That wouldn't even be close.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.

And by "not even close" I mean 53% or higher for Ganondorf, which qualifies as destroying him if you're Ulti.
---
Noms: Kerrigan, Leon, Lloyd, Ocelot, Lugi, Kefka, Magus, Frog, Terra, and Kratos.

With this talk of matches we wanna see, I'll be a cheap whore and shamelessly plug my topic:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21679254
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

Yeah but I believe just a little bit of funkiness happenend in that match. I take Ganon, but not with complete confidence.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

Ganondorf nearly did better on Sephiroth than Zero did on Mega Man. That wouldn't even be close.

BUT THE SFF!!!!!!!!1!!1!1!
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

I'd take Snake, Magus, and Ganondorf over Zero without blinking.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Magus and Ganon over Zero, yes. Solid, I'm no longer so quick about.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

I blink several times with Snake. Several, several times.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

I'm not at all confident that I can place Snake well. He could go back to being above Sonic thanks to MGS3 or he could lose to Bowser, I have no idea. I'm hoping he gets a good Sweet 16 or Elite 8 match as opposed to, say, Knuckles and Mega Man.
---
Yes, I know he faced Knuckles in the 2nd round, and not the Sweet 16. It was an example.

57%, RPGuy =p

Any predictions, people?

Sure, what the hell.

Samus vs Mario - I maintain that our only chance at an A > B > C > A loop is Mario > Samus > Crono > Mario. I just can't see Mario losing to Samus, Xsts be damned.

Sonic vs Solid Snake - They share a common opponent (Aeris), and Snake did 3.5% better on her. The problem is that Snake has dropped pretty far over the past three years, and Sonic is comparable to Mega Man, who trounced Snake with ease. Twice. It'd probably be one of those 51.5-48.5 deals, though.

Megaman vs Mario - Not difficult in the slightest, despite the 2003 Xsts.

Samus vs Megaman - Unless they face each other, I'd pin Samus as being stronger than Mario. And I have Mario beating Mega Man, so....

Solid Snake vs Mario - Not even close.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Obviously you know nothing. Knuckles faced Solid Snake in the second round.
---
Haha I have outsmarted RPGuy haha!

Samus vs Mario - I maintain that our only chance at an A > B > C > A loop is Mario > Samus > Crono > Mario. I just can't see Mario losing to Samus, Xsts be damned.

I've always had this same dirty little secret. I've tried so damn hard, yet I can't picture Mario losing to Ms. Aran. I just can't. If this match were to occur, I may as well go with the upset or flip a coin.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I agree it's our only chance of a loop like that (except maybe something with Auron/Tidus if they had a common opponent and faced each other...not holding my breath on that one though), but I don't think it'll happen. SOME rSFF, sure, but I don't think it'd be enough to give Mario the win over Samus.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

So, you're all saying Mario would get a reverse SFF? What about his loss to Link?
---
Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.

Samus/Mario would be expected to be a 55/45 affair, but, dammit, I'd pick Mario anyway.
---
I'll get you for this, NewLib!

Link is an entirely different beast from Samus, and I've seen more arguments for Link to have SFF'd Samus than for Link to have SFF'd Mario.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

I have a weird feeling that Zelda would beat Ganon heads up for some reason despite being weaker. Am I weird?
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

Link can probably find a way to SFF a character named anti-Link.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Zelda wouldn't fall apart against Ganon like Ganon did against Link, and I don't think she'd be SFF'd much at all...but to get her the win over Ganon? Can't do it.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

Ok, I've finished up the next stage of my massive data analysis. As mentioned in the previous topic, I'm doing a least-squares regression of all of the contest matches and year-to-year constraints to try to come up with some adjusted extrapolated standings that would indicate where characters over and underperformed, as well as increased or decreased across years.

Right now, I have 224 variables corresponding to the popularities of each of the characters on each of the years. I have 220 equations corresponding to each of the matches that have occurred, as well as 88 equations constraining the year-to-year variations of the characters that have appeared in multiple contests.

In the current state of the analysis, all of those equations are given equal weight. In the next couple of days, I'm going to modify my program to weight the year-to-year variations more strongly, since right now the match equations are dominating.

In the data I am about to present, please keep the following IMPORTANT things in mind: First and foremost, it is not normalized towards any particular character - you'll notice that Link2k4 is given the value 0.834347. As it turns out, Tails2k4 and Wario2k3 are right around 0.5, so these numbers can be interpreted as (approximately) expected percentages against Tails2k4 or Wario2k3. Secondly, since the current version gives more weight to the match equations, year-to-year variation is larger than I would like for some characters. Finally, this model does NOT take into account SFF; however, my goal is that the least-squares regression will place characters at a level where although there is a large error for one or two matches, it merely indicates a severe over/underperformence, i.e. SFF.

The data will be in my next post(s), most likely 2-3 posts.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Link2k4 0.834347
CloudStrife2k4 0.802579
Link2k3 0.796997
Link2k2 0.791522
CloudStrife2k3 0.785512
Sephiroth2k3 0.774176
Sephiroth2k4 0.759757
Crono2k4 0.751166
CloudStrife2k2 0.748652
SamusAran2k4 0.746904
Sephiroth2k2 0.744995
Mario2k4 0.741779
Sephiroth2k5 0.740695
Crono2k3 0.733736
Mario2k2 0.731232
Crono2k2 0.725833
MegaMan2k2 0.723298
Mario2k3 0.717843
MegaMan2k4 0.71544
SamusAran2k3 0.71385
SamusAran2k2 0.712467
SonicTheHedgehog2k3 0.710614
SolidSnake2k2 0.708522
SonicTheHedgehog2k2 0.707498
MegaMan2k3 0.704765
AerisGainsborough2k3 0.695064
SolidSnake2k3 0.685682
SonicTheHedgehog2k4 0.684842
AerisGainsborough2k2 0.680297
Zero2k3 0.665894
Zero2k4 0.658873
SolidSnake2k4 0.651503
ShadowTheHedgehog2k3 0.650038
Ryu2k2 0.645097
Ganondorf2k5 0.63841
Ryu2k4 0.635538
Ryu2k3 0.635467
Bowser2k5 0.631919
Bowser2k3 0.627786
ShadowTheHedgehog2k4 0.62561
Tidus2k2 0.619019
Magus2k3 0.616798
SquallLeonhart2k3 0.612012
Auron2k3 0.61058
Tidus2k3 0.609913
Ganondorf2k3 0.608837
Tidus2k4 0.60835
Auron2k4 0.607886
Bowser2k4 0.606059
MasterChief2k4 0.605454
Frog2k4 0.604855
MasterChief2k3 0.603633
Ganondorf2k4 0.596
Zelda2k3 0.593335
Dante2k3 0.591798
Sora2k4 0.59074
SquallLeonhart2k2 0.589209
Magus2k4 0.588839
KnucklesTheEchidna2k2 0.588668
SquallLeonhart2k4 0.58821
Dante2k2 0.582343
Dante2k4 0.579906
Yoshi2k3 0.577427
Yoshi2k4 0.576655
Felix2k3 0.574969
MorriganAensland2k2 0.574789
Vivi2k4 0.568986
LiquidSnake2k4 0.568943
KnucklesTheEchidna2k3 0.568332
ClaireRedfield2k2 0.566184
Sora2k3 0.564453
Kasumi2k2 0.558333
Alucard2k3 0.55769
Alucard2k2 0.55523
KnucklesTheEchidna2k4 0.554941
Ken2k2 0.553304
Luigi2k4 0.5418
Alucard2k4 0.541671
JillValentine2k2 0.541613
Ken2k3 0.541334
Kirby2k4 0.534156
LiquidSnake2k5 0.532828
Kirby2k3 0.529641
TommyVercetti2k4 0.528645
Scorpion2k2 0.524293
Luigi2k3 0.524065
TommyVercetti2k3 0.523416
JillValentine2k3 0.519709
StriderHiryu2k2 0.519418
Kirby2k2 0.51898
Scorpion2k3 0.516689
KOSMOS2k3 0.516686
KOSMOS2k4 0.516005
Yuna2k3 0.515403
FoxMcCloud2k3 0.509519
FoxMcCloud2k2 0.507282
JillValentine2k4 0.504325
DonkeyKong2k4 0.501755
Wario2k3 0.501181
MilesTailsPrower2k2 0.499776
DonkeyKong2k3 0.499266
MilesTailsPrower2k4 0.496571
Diablo2k5 0.495846
RyuHayabusa2k4 0.489126
Scorpion2k4 0.488541
MilesTailsPrower2k3 0.487626
Servbot2k2 0.487304
Raziel2k2 0.479215
Lavos2k5 0.476475
RevolverOcelot2k5 0.469408
MBison2k5 0.467031
Raziel2k3 0.464926
Kefka2k5 0.463962
LaraCroft2k2 0.462513
Kefka2k4 0.460969
DukeNukem2k4 0.458829
DonkeyKong2k2 0.45797
LaraCroft2k3 0.454757
RamzaBeoulve2k3 0.452574
Isaac2k3 0.449572
ViewtifulJoe2k4 0.448575
AyaBrea2k2 0.447466
Bomberman2k2 0.445437
SimonBelmont2k2 0.444669
DukeNukem2k3 0.444352
DukeNukem2k2 0.441625
Kefka2k3 0.440216
LaraCroft2k4 0.434809
Vergil2k5 0.434455
Bomberman2k4 0.433657
Conker2k4 0.433327
SamFisher2k3 0.432899
Protoman2k4 0.432311
PacMan2k2 0.431719
HK472k4 0.431317
Bomberman2k3 0.430561
DrWily2k5 0.424709
Nemesis2k5 0.423211
Ness2k4 0.42202
Conker2k3 0.42195
Ridley2k5 0.419447
SamFisher2k4 0.419418
MotherBrain2k5 0.419025
PacMan2k3 0.417973
TinaArmstrong2k2 0.415601
LittleMac2k2 0.414056
Vyse2k4 0.41367
MaxPayne2k4 0.399056
Ness2k3 0.397204
CrashBandicoot2k2 0.395552
Vyse2k3 0.395158
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

CrashBandicoot2k3 0.3945
CrashBandicoot2k4 0.392047
PacMan2k4 0.391626
MaxPayne2k3 0.391418
SpyroTheDragon2k2 0.385583
Kain2k4 0.385331
MaxPayne2k2 0.380966
Ansem2k5 0.37937
QBert2k2 0.373923
Jak2k4 0.373267
Kite2k3 0.369148
Pikachu2k2 0.368034
JCDenton2k4 0.361499
GordonFreeman2k4 0.358191
Ramirez2k5 0.35742
DrRobotnik2k5 0.349809
GordonFreeman2k3 0.349285
Pikachu2k3 0.347178
CATS2k4 0.34415
RyoHazuki2k2 0.343653
CATS2k5 0.343084
Bub2k2 0.341558
EarthwormJim2k4 0.340286
PitfallHarry2k2 0.339984
TerryBogard2k4 0.339969
sin2k5 0.337851
CATS2k3 0.336812
GordonFreeman2k2 0.335868
SlyCooper2k4 0.332848
ParappaTheRapper2k2 0.327968
Mithos2k5 0.327618
CATS2k2 0.326118
Sigma2k5 0.325358
RyoHazuki2k3 0.320306
IoriYagami2k2 0.319823
Laharl2k4 0.317847
TomNook2k3 0.313061
RyoHazuki2k4 0.311606
Raiden2k3 0.3106
KazuyaMishima2k2 0.310344
KyoKusanagi2k2 0.309984
TerryBogard2k2 0.305807
Ghaleon2k5 0.297598
Andross2k5 0.295446
Ultros2k5 0.293131
GabeLogan2k2 0.290535
Albedo2k5 0.287821
Wesker2k5 0.280292
Ulala2k2 0.275639
ChopChopMasterOnion2k2 0.272891
AiAi2k3 0.270918
MasterHand2k5 0.268086
Ratchet2k3 0.266294
Ratchet2k4 0.262399
AkiraYuki2k2 0.2567
CaptainOlimar2k3 0.249878
PyramidHead2k5 0.24807
Abe2k2 0.247065
GuybrushThreepwood2k4 0.239724
Kuja2k5 0.239592
Giygas2k5 0.237802
MrResetti2k3 0.228456
OfficerTenpenny2k5 0.227672
Goemon2k2 0.226253
LucaBlight2k4 0.224617
LucaBlight2k5 0.216386
SeriousSam2k2 0.18853
Kane2k2 0.183764
MsPacMan2k2 0.178975
GuybrushThreepwood2k2 0.173062
DirkTheDaring2k2 0.161444
MrDriller2k2 0.140336
Tanner2k4 0.101607
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

55-45, RPGuy? Damn.

I just look at Link/Mario 2002 and Link/Samus 2003. For the most part, it doesn't look like Samus was SFFd in the match against Link based on 2003 stats, and we can blame WDF for her 2002 inflation. However, if you were here in 2002, everyone was so unbelievably pissed off at Mario come the final that I think he suffered from some backlash, possibly even some SFF as well. I'd think that Link/Samus have less of a shared fanbase than Link/Mario, personally. And I think those factors are enough to push Mario past Samus's 2003 total on elf boy.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

That could be an interesting read after you fix the SFF problem. Magus and Ganon are far too low.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mario > 37.94% on Link 2k3 now...but Samus would be several percentages over that now too. As for Link/Mario sharing more of the same fans than Link/Samus, I agree to a degree, but that's a minor point with all things considered; that's just going to be a small factor.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

JillValentine2k4 0.504325
DonkeyKong2k4 0.501755
Wario2k3 0.501181
MilesTailsPrower2k2 0.499776
DonkeyKong2k3 0.499266
MilesTailsPrower2k4 0.496571
Diablo2k5 0.495846
RyuHayabusa2k4 0.489126

Heh...
---
Nominate Strider Hiryu from the Strider Series!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php

I was just wondering. We ever decide anything about the Noble Nine?
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

The other quite obvious problem with that data is that Link2k3 ranks ahead of Cloud2k3, which means that if the data is right, then Cloud overperformed in 2k3, an indication of the KHF. Of course, I don't think this data is that accurate yet, but I'm presenting it as food for thought.
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I was just wondering. We ever decide anything about the Noble Nine?

Depends on the subject. I'm going to take a guess at what you specifically meant though...I assume Solid Snake will no longer be a part of the Noble Nine, thus finally getting rid of the controversial group-name (I've supported Super Seven for awhile, heh).
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

I really appreciate the effort, but I cant decipher much of anything out of those stats. Maybe just because its late.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

The Noble Nine thing may sound like crap these days, but it won't truly be dead until someone from the original nine loses to an outsider.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I laugh every time I see Tanner at the bottom of a list. I mean, below Mr. Driller? lmao...
---
Nope. God himself couldn't beat Sephiroth. FFVII Fanboys outnumber Christians. ~ jkmill550

Yeah I meant that we have pretty reliable evidence Ganon and Magus could probably defeat Snake with some room to spare that calling it a Noble Nine is kind of absurd. I still think there is a big enough margin between Sonic and the rest to make it an Elite Eight.
---
NOMINATE Terra, Manny Calavera, and Leon S. Kennedy FOR SC2k5!

I still think there is a big enough margin between Sonic and the rest to make it an Elite Eight.

To be fair, Magus did outrank Sonic...in Sonic's worst year, yes, but it still happened in 2k3.

Super Seven > Elite Eight >>> Noble Nine.
---
Serious Reminder: Nominate Arbiter for 2k5
Serious Reminder: Nominate Tifa Lockheart for 2k5, too

no, Elite Eight is better!!
---
I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest! *grumble*