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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 137
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 6/1/2005 6:50:29 AM | Message Detail
C'mon Ganon! Reach my prediction of 65%!

This is great for him. I'm hoping Ganon can get 45% on Seph, but 40%+ would be fine with me. I'm still extremely proud of his performance in this Contest.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Sephiroth - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Bowser (46/56)
From: cyko | Posted: 6/1/2005 6:50:53 AM | Message Detail
oh, and does this match seem like it is still moving a bit slowly? for the record, diabloii.net does not have today's match posted on it's homepage like all of Diablo's other matches. it briefly mentions that there would be a semi-final match between the Kefka/Diablo winner and the Ganon/Robotnik winner, but doesn't say that Diablo beat Kefka or that the semifinal match is today.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/1/2005 6:57:34 AM | Message Detail
Heh, that's true, Diabloii.net is still sleeping.

Although, I gotta give Diablo some credit. Who else can summon a swarm of gnats concealing a 6-foot polearm or plate mail armor?

IT MAKES ME WANT TO VOLUNTEER AT THE SOUP KITCHEN!!!
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 6/1/2005 6:59:40 AM | Message Detail
Hey Slow, do you remember your bracket scores from the last Spring and Summer Contests?
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Sephiroth - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Bowser (46/56)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:04:26 AM | Message Detail
Ganon could manage a doubling if he benefits from the day vote enough.

GO GANON!

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:14:12 AM | Message Detail
I don't recall the numbers, so I'll have to look over each match.

Spring: PS/Contra (1), DK/Duck Hunt (2), SMRPG/SF2 (3), Earthbound/Doom (4), Halo/Starcraft (5), Starcraft/KH (7), Starcraft/Wind Waker (11), FF10/SSBM (15), Starcraft/SSBM (23).

Score: 169.

Summer: Vivi/DK (1), Joe/Tails (2), Sora/Hayabusa (4), Crono/Mario (8), Link/Cloud (40).

Score: 152.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:23:45 AM | Message Detail
Ok, cause I was noticing how we're going to end up with the same score here, and I thought I remembered us scoring the same before.

My scores were 167 and 156 by the way.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Diablo vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (46/56)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:24:16 AM | Message Detail
I scored 138 in 2003. Maybe that was then?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:25:43 AM | Message Detail
I didn't make a bracket in 2003. I was too new, and if I did, my bracket would have sucked badly.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Diablo vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (46/56)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:34:36 AM | Message Detail
Diablo 35% 7986
Ganondorf 65% 14828
TOTAL VOTES 22814

Ganon hits 65%.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:36:59 AM | Message Detail
And looking back on it, Ganon only lost the day vote in one match and that was against Ansem. His run thus far has been very impressive, I have to say. The lowest percentage he got was 74.44% against Ansem; otherwise, he at least tripled everyone else.

Today, he's looking like he can get a doubling on Diablo and possibly more. It's about time he gets to have a chance at decimating everyone given the screw job he's gotten in the two previous contests he was in, particularly last year.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:46:28 AM | Message Detail
I did some checking to see what Ganon is projected to get on Sephiroth when he [Sephiroth] is both at his 2003 value and his 2004 value. I would have checked out Chichiri's value for Ganon - the assumption that Ganon dropped - and the estimated value for Sephiroth potentially dropping again, but I forgot both, so I'm sure someone can fill those in for me.

If Sephiroth is at his 2003 value of 49.17%, Ganon is projected to gather 34.93% against him.

If Sephiroth is at his 2004 value of 42.40%, Ganon is projected to get 38.19% against him.

I can honestly say that the 2003 Sephiroth is very unlikely to happen. I think it is rather obvious at this point that Sephiroth is not at that level. So, if his 2004 value is correct then Ganon is already looking very good at breaking 40% at the least. Of course, just to clarify, both of those values use Ganon's 2003 value as opposed to some other crazy projection that puts Ganon near Dante - yes, Chichiri, I called it crazy. =p

So, I think there is a very good chance that we could see Ganon inch his way toward 45% against Sephiroth tomorrow. After all, this will be a second consecutive Zelda vs. Final Fantasy final and Ganon has been very impressive in his run through the contest. At any rate, he should at least match Bowser. I would put that at a bare minimum, myself.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:53:59 AM | Message Detail
Bowser did better than any Mario entry has ever done, EVER, yesterday. There had to be major franchise-voting or something... I'm stumped. Either way, Ganondorf wins big over Bowser at the game of franchise voting. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, suffice to say for the moment that Sephiroth looks - gasp! - beatable.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:55:15 AM | Message Detail
Indeed. If franchise voting comes into play as a big factor, Ganon could very well do the unthinkable...

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:57:37 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, as you said, it would all compensate for him being slapped into one of the strongest four-packs of all time (I can only think of Starcraft's one being stronger) one year and being beat down by Link worse than CATS.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: meche313 | Posted: 6/1/2005 7:59:05 AM | Message Detail
....and everyone's bracket is screwed.
Well, there were some people who chose Ganon afterall....

I think Ganon should get about 46%, and I agree, this has been a really impressive run.
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Yoblazer can have my babies! And I really mean it!
PWNED heavily by the Guru Contest winner.
From: Starion | Posted: 6/1/2005 8:15:06 AM | Message Detail
...Sephiroth looks - gasp! - beatable

Yes, that doesn't seem impossible now but who knows, the match could turn out to be a Samus-Cloud (41-59) affair.

If franchise voting is a big factor in these matches, don't you find it odd that it didn't manifest itself significantly in previous contests? The only reason I can think of is that the nature of the contest (villain contest) is drawing out franchise support.
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 6/1/2005 8:15:15 AM | Message Detail
I was expecting closer to 60%, but I guess that was just wishful thinking...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/1/2005 8:41:57 AM | Message Detail
Well. I think this further validates the 20XXDF (through Kefka), and disproves the theory of Magus/Ganondorf/Tidus being overrated, all in one fell swoop. Huzzah for Ganondorf! I'm guessing he'll end up with 41-42% on Sephiroth tomorrow, just slightly better than Bowser.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 6/1/2005 8:44:09 AM | Message Detail
I would have a telepathic orgasm if Magus took down Sephiroth; no touching required.

Of course, everyone already knows that Sephiroth would be the clear underdog in such a match. He'd be lucky to break 15% on the almighty Magus Zeal.


So Seph would be lucky to break 10% on Crono?

*runs*
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The yoblazer: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/1/2005 8:47:53 AM | Message Detail
Man...I am NOT liking how there's been matches that both validate and disprove the 20XX adjustments; this contest just needs to make its daggum mind up already.

I do hope Ganon gets the doubling though...as a side-note, if diabloii.net doesn't end up linking for this match, consider Ridley, Bison, and Kefka slightly under-rated by the stats.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:11:41 AM | Message Detail
Like I already said, there are a lot of 2003 stats within the 2004 stats. It's probably a big cause for all the weird stuff we're seeing.

~*ST*~
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*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:12:59 AM | Message Detail
Fun with numbers: Bottom Half Edition:

XS on Ganondorf:
Ganondorf 50.00
Diablo 34.59
M. Bison 32.60
Kefka 31.76
Ridley 29.30
Ansem 25.56
CATS 23.49
Dr. Robotnik 23.34
Mithos 22.88
Sin 22.72
Albedo 20.58
Master Hand 18.91
Wesker 18.82
Luca Blight 18.42
Kuja 17.48
Giygas 14.82

XS on 2k3 Link if Ganondorf = 2k3 Ganondorf:
Ganondorf 34.72
Diablo 24.02
M. Bison 22.64
Kefka 22.05
Ridley 20.34
Ansem 17.75
CATS 16.31
Dr. Robotnik 16.21
Mithos 15.89
Sin 15.78
Albedo 14.29
Master Hand 13.13
Wesker 13.07
Luca Blight 12.79
Kuja 12.14
Giygas 10.29

XS on 2k3 Link if Kefka = adj 2k4 Kefka:
Ganondorf 35.81
Diablo 24.78
M. Bison 23.35
Kefka 22.75
Ridley 20.99
Ansem 18.31
CATS 16.83
Dr. Robotnik 16.72
Mithos 16.39
Sin 16.28
Albedo 14.73
Master Hand 13.54
Wesker 13.48
Luca Blight 12.52
Kuja 10.86
Giygas 10.62

I'm not going to bother posting CATS or Luca Blight for the same reason that I didn't bother posting Liquid yesterday.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:14:44 AM | Message Detail
Like I already said, there are a lot of 2003 stats within the 2004 stats. It's probably a big cause for all the weird stuff we're seeing.

Yeah, by my count 36 out of the 64 characters in the 2k4 bracket are changed from their raw numbers; there's a lot of room for error there.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:15:00 AM | Message Detail
Albedo 20.58
Master Hand 18.91


It may just be me, but, I'd stll take MH there.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:16:14 AM | Message Detail
Albedo's hands grope better than Master Hand's ever will... something that can't be said for Not Robotnik.
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The yoblazer: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:19:44 AM | Message Detail
Fun with numbers: The Big Picture Prelim III:

This uses 2k3 Ganondorf for the bottom half, and assumes that half of yesterday's result is Bowser increasing and the other half is Sephiroth decreasing.

XS on 2k3 Link:
1 Sephiroth 42.42
2 Ganondorf 34.72
3 Bowser 34.32
4 Diablo 24.02
5 Revolver Ocelot 23.34
6 M. Bison 22.64
7 Kefka 22.05
8 Dr. Wily 21.24
9 Nemesis 21.17
10 Liquid Snake 20.43
11 Ridley 20.34
12 Lavos 18.13
13 Vergil 17.98
14 Ansem 17.75
15 CATS 16.31
16 Dr. Robotnik 16.21
17 Mother Brain 16.03
18 Mithos 15.89
19 Sin 15.78
20 Ultros 15.28
21 Albedo 14.29
22 Sigma 14.19
23 Ramirez 13.86
24 Andross 13.20
25 Master Hand 13.13
26 Wesker 13.07
27 Luca Blight 12.79
28 Ghaleon 12.78
29 Kuja 12.14
30 Pyramid Head 11.06
31 Giygas 10.29
32 Officer Tenpenny 8.35

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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:21:45 AM | Message Detail
XD at CATS in the top half.
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The yoblazer: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:29:00 AM | Message Detail
Would anybody take Ansem over Lavos?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Phediuk | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:48:25 AM | Message Detail
You guys talking about a Ganon upset are all deluding yourselves.

Ganon won't even come close. I'll call it now: Seph with 57%.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: NewLib | Posted: 6/1/2005 9:50:02 AM | Message Detail
Seph got 59 againist Bowser and Gannon has proven himself to be as strong as ever. Im not talking Upset, but 55-45 affair wouldnt surprise me.
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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: NewLib | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:00:55 AM | Message Detail
If Gannon keeps gaining throughout the day, Kefka and Luca are going to land pretty close to where the 2k4 stats say they should adjusted for SFF. Only CATS is a few percents off and sense its almost certain he overpeformed, the stats on the bottom half dont look that bad. Diablo close to Tommy, Bison around Kos-Mos level, Ridley between Jill and Viewtiful Joe, Albedo = Laharl, all looks good.

These stats could of been used if Sephiroth liked to be consistant instead of the jumping he has done.
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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: FFDragon | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:09:56 AM | Message Detail
If Ganon can at least make a respectable showing against Sephiroth tomorrow, CATS isn't going to look bad at all in the stats.
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Insomnia is like having immortality, except you're gonna die. ~PepsiPlunge
yoblazer made me look like a jobber in the Guru contest...
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:12:42 AM | Message Detail
29 Kuja 12.14

Ouch.

Also, CATS looks a little high. O_o
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: NewLib | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:26:10 AM | Message Detail
He is about 4 percentage points too high which I say atleast half of that is due to overperformance againist Ansem.
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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:28:52 AM | Message Detail
Would anybody take Ansem over Lavos?

No.
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Jon Thomson - 46/56, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Sephiroth
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:33:52 AM | Message Detail
Nothing to do with the contest, but I need to vent.

I just found out that I'm going to be in a horrible situation for the next couple of weeks. Yesterday, a pipe under my kitchen sink sprunk a minor leak. We called the plumber and expected it to be fixed the same day. He might have fixed it, but the leak was actually under the house, so it was too muddy to fix at the time, so we went all of yesterday without water. No showers, no cooking, no toilet, nothing. Anyway, fast forward to today. The pipe is able to be fixed, but it's only temporary. The plumber will have to come back next week to replace every single pipe in the house, because it turns out they are incredibly prone to leaks. We can't even sue the company that made the pipes because they went out of business.

Now, this would really suck under normal circumstances, but these aren't exactly normal. You see, my parents are going out of town on Saturday and will be gone for a week. I was going to use the opportunity to search for a job, but now I have to stay at home for the plumbers. I'll be mostly without water for most, if not all, of that stretch. I'll have to hoard water before my parents leave. I wasn't going to do much actual cooking, but now I have the choice of letting the dirty dishes that I do use pile up or eating out every night. I have no clue how long the repairs will take. It could be quite a while. The one bright side is that for part of the repairs, I may get cold water only. Woo hoo.

Man, I hate my luck.
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The yoblazer: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: Buzzup | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:34:59 AM | Message Detail
If there's one thing this contest proves, than it's once again that Seph hates numbers, he pretty much screwed the stats for this contest again...
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:35:45 AM | Message Detail
I was wondering what that hideous odor was.

~*ST*~
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*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:37:28 AM | Message Detail
Oh, plus I won't be in trouble unless I need to crap, toilet wise. There's a huge desert right behind my house.
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The yoblazer: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:39:43 AM | Message Detail
Without the massive vote-stuffing that occurred in all three of his matches, that trio would have probably been Master Chief > Liquid Snake > Frog, and by a relatively wide margin between Chief and Liquid. Frog had little business winning either one of his matches.

Strange how Frog was beating Master Chief by 2500 votes and increasing before that link was posted, isn't it? Unless you're counting the link as MC's legit strength, I don't see how you can put him at the front of that inequality.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: swirldude | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:41:36 AM | Message Detail
Unless you're counting the link as MC's legit strength, I don't see how you can put him at the front of that inequality.

It can be counted as MC strength the same way battle.net is couned as Starcraft's strength, and how anti-votes are counted as Pikachu's "strength".
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I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21292832
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:44:56 AM | Message Detail
I don't count it as MC's strength because that was the only match he had with it.
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Roses are red, violets are blue,
Yoblazer has owned each and every guru.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:47:16 AM | Message Detail
Ganon won't even come close. I'll call it now: Seph with 57%.

...That's a very good performance, regardless.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: swirldude | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:47:39 AM | Message Detail
However, now that MC is going up up up with Halo 2's release (it'd be insanity of Seph/LS magnitude if he didn't), he may remain at that strength this summer, if not, increased (which should happen).
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I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21292832
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/1/2005 10:48:15 AM | Message Detail
It can be counted as MC strength the same way battle.net is couned as Starcraft's strength, and how anti-votes are counted as Pikachu's "strength".

It has to be something he gets every match, and he'll never get it again, at least not from halo.bungie.org.

We don't count PGC and SMS as Mario's legit strength in 2002, so I don't see why we should count that for Master Chief.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: goku z | Posted: 6/1/2005 11:30:28 AM | Message Detail
Ah, Mario v. Cloud. Still possibly the greatest match in contest history. (Of course. Mario v. Crono II is up there as well)

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In memory of my true love, Mandi Barton...the one that got away.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:33:02 PM | Message Detail
I've figured out why I dislike Link and Ganon in contests, they always get repped by their newer forms, minus one match... and we all know I hate 3D Zeldas. Well, despite what it'll do to Kuja here's hoping Seph stomps Ganon silly (it'll make Boswer look so damn good, after all).
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: creativename | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:41:30 PM | Message Detail
Impressive performance here by Ganondorf. Not even the ugly pic could stop him here.

Does he really have a chance to break 45% on Sephiroth? Hmmm...
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:44:58 PM | Message Detail
I mentioned it last night...If that performance last night was all Sephiroth drop, then Ganondorf should get a smidge over 45% on him tomorrow.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
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