I hope Ganondorf wins by the least possible amount. The day vote shouldn't be so strongly in favor of Diablo this time around, though, should it?
---
Current Match Prediction -- Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Spring 2005 Contest -- 47/48 points

Just as a reminder:

Ganondorf (2004) vs. Diablo [20XX adjusted Kefka] - 64.32%

Ganondorf (2004) vs. Diablo [unadjusted Kefka] - 67.42%

Ganondorf [static CATS] vs. Diablo [20XX adjusted Kefka] - 56.42%

Ganondorf [static CATS] vs. Diablo [unadjusted Kefka] - 60.20%
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

I just hope we lose some -1s. This is the last match were there's a realistic chance of weeding out the competition.

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Score-Brackets-% Right
47-----27-------96.2962963
46-----19-------100.0000000
45-----89-------97.7528090
44-----118------93.2203390
43-----151------96.6887417
42-----198------94.9494949
41-----318------95.2830189
40-----460------95.8695652
39-----689------94.7750363
38-----1061-----93.9679548
37-----1335-----93.5580524
36-----1697-----92.9876252
35-----1903-----93.9569101
34-----2133-----92.3112986
33-----1956-----93.0981595
32-----1956-----90.6952965
31-----1654-----89.1777509
30-----1476-----87.1951220
29-----1196-----86.6220736
28-----994------82.7967807
27-----866------81.0623557
26-----753------77.1580345
25-----627------76.3955343
24-----502------67.7290837
23-----474------62.4472574
22-----436------63.3027523
21-----338------57.3964497
20-----221------57.0135747
19-----197------47.2081218
18-----189------40.7407407
17-----146------36.9863014
16-----94-------24.4680851
15-----86-------17.4418605
14-----63-------14.2857143
13-----48-------10.4166667
12-----52-------3.8461538

Those with scores 11 or less got the match wrong.

Once again the -2's got the match perfect and the -1's did not. The -1 who got it wrong and the only person to fall from the Top 50 was Geeman3d.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

The day vote shouldn't be so strongly in favor of Diablo this time around, though, should it?

Not at all. He may "win" the day vote, but it certainly won't be as strong as it was in previous matches. Ganon is not only popular, but he's from Zelda. That's enough to not get beat down like Diablo usually does to his opponents.

---
If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.

85% went with Sephiroth? Sheesh...looks like 80% have him as champ.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If Bowser's performance was the result of a strength drop, then Sephiroth falls to 38.28% on Link, slightly above Mario. That means Ganondorf could do as well as 45.35% in the finals.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

Hell, I don't even know if Diablo will win the day vote at all. Remember, just two days ago, Ganondorf had a fantastic 74%+ over Robotnik and actually increased during the day. He improved upon 74% while facing a Sonic character. That's... that's not bad. =P
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Nice to see Ganon kicking some ass.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.

He improved upon 74% while facing a Sonic character. That's... that's not bad. =P

It's not nearly as impressive as it implies when Robotnik bombed during the day against Master Hand and Sin, too. He's the anti-Sonic.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

Diablo 34.3% 343
Ganondorf 65.7% 657
TOTAL VOTES 1000

Almost managed to get that doubling in there...

---
If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.

Seph beats Bowser with around 58k votes. Now I just need Ganon to take about 5,000 of those votes... >_>

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Ganon should be increasing faster than this, damn it.
---
Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

Ganon should be increasing faster than this, damn it.

He's doing fine. It isn't as though Diablo is fodder...

---
If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.

The higher Ganondorf goes, the worse it makes Kefka look, as if that were possible.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

Why should Ganon be doing better than this? He's doing quite well, if you ask me.

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

No no, I'm not scared for Ganon, I'm saying he should be getting more votes than this.

Diablo? More like Diasuck.
---
Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.

The higher Ganondorf goes, the worse it makes Kefka look, as if that were possible.

It also makes Not Robotnik look worse, as if THAT were possible.

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Nah, it makes him look SLIGHTLY better if Ganondorf does better than he should.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

Diablo? More like Diasuck.

Ganondorf? More like...

...

SHUT UP! Diablo rules! :P

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I know for a fact that one of my nominations is going toward Diablo and then the other Blizzard character will be Kerrigan. <3

---
If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.

I almost don't want to nominate Diablo or Kerrigan just because they'll make the character contest that much harder to predict. Although I did guess everything involving Diablo correctly this time around....

---
Against Kefka, HaRRicH said Wesker < 43%. I said Wesker > 43%...
...turns out 29.63% < 43%, as well as HaRRicH > CaptainFlufflez. Learn to love it.

I don't guess we're doing user-made finals pictures this year. Oh well. Ceej better make the last one good then.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

because they'll make the character contest that much harder to predict.

...That's a good thing.

---
“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan

This contest is already going to have some people second-guessing, and it makes Samus > Sephiroth look much more appealing than it did before. I expect that to be the most popular "upset" pick by far if they're set up to meet along the line.

Granted, that changes a bit if Sephiroth comes out and creams Ganon tomorrow.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

Ganon's percentage is dropping now. He's under 64%.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

After Bowser's performance, I'm much more interested in looking into that Samus > Sephiroth upset... for obvious reasons.

---
“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan

Ganondorf (2004) vs. Diablo [20XX adjusted Kefka] - 64.32%
Ganondorf (2004) vs. Diablo [unadjusted Kefka] - 67.42%

Those should really say Ganondorf 2003. Ganondorf 2004 would get what, 20%? =)
---
SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

I don't see what the problem with Ocelot > Liquid is, if you don't think about the previous stats. Ocelot's in all three games, and is more important than Liquid in the most popular of the three, MGS2.

As for Bowser's strength being insane...we don't have any data on him from 2k4. An increase over two years is certainly possible, even if it is somewhat large. Adjusting him in the 2k4 stats through Guybrush also gives him a stronger value, and Guybrush 2k4 a lower value, which makes sense. Why would Guybrush increase between 2002 and 2004? The Monkey Island series is only decreasing in popularity.

Yeah, yeah. I know. Right now, he's close to that first number though.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

I don't see what the problem with Ocelot > Liquid is, if you don't think about the previous stats. Ocelot's in all three games, and is more important than Liquid in the most popular of the three, MGS2.

That's what I said prior to the contest about Ocelot possibly rivaling Liquid in strength. Being that much stronger doesn't seem right, mostly due to how close Liquid was to Solid last year.

So much for the "He'll be stronger because he has 'Snake' in his name" stuff, huh?
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.

No one has ever made a good point on how you can reliably compare character's strengths from different contests. Character strengths fluctuate from contest to contest. We can get a good idea of who became stronger and who became weaker, but to try and set a number to it (Like how Liquid would do against a character from 2003) is ridiculously speculative.

---
"LucidFaia" Score: 55, Rank: 22 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I've been thinking about the 2004 stats, and I think the reason for all the anomalies we're seeing is that the SFF adjustments were all made according to 2003 stats. Characters hardly ever stay static from one year to the next, and the 2004 stats are basically a giant mix of 2003 and 2004 information mixed together to compensate for the massive SFF that was all over that bracket.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.

With what Bowser just pulled on Sephiroth, I think it makes seem like that FF:AC may not affect this contest at all. At least the hype of it.

---
I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

Before, I was definitely in favor of retiring the big 3, but after yesterday I really want to see Samus vs. Sephiroth. I'd even be tempted to take Crono over Sephiroth - if Crono increases like he has the last two years, and if Sephiroth has really dropped, it's possible.
---
SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

I never bought into Advent Children hype in the first place. I maintain that all of these FF7 spinoffs are only going to hurt FF7 overall in the long run. FF7 was legendary, but bad spinoffs aren't the way to keep the game fresh. Make a remake, make a sequel, make a prequel, anything but a bad spinoff or a movie.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.

I would have a telepathic orgasm if Magus took down Sephiroth; no touching required.

Of course, everyone already knows that Sephiroth would be the clear underdog in such a match. He'd be lucky to break 15% on the almighty Magus Zeal.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.

That's what I said prior to the contest about Ocelot possibly rivaling Liquid in strength. Being that much stronger doesn't seem right, mostly due to how close Liquid was to Solid last year.

So much for the "He'll be stronger because he has 'Snake' in his name" stuff, huh?

As I said, if you look at the stats it doesn't make as much sense. If we had only had a Summer Contest this year, without the villain contest to taint our ideas, we would expect the gap between Liquid and Solid to widen anyway, thanks to MGS3. Others already thought they were too close, because of possible anomalies in Frog vs. Liquid and Frog vs. Solid. No doubt many would believe Solid would decrease despite MGS3 because he experinced a fall from SC2k3 to SC2k4 despite The Twin Snakes, and would think that the trend would continue. All of these point to Liquid doing worse than he did in 2k4, and several point to Solid doing poorly as well. With Liquid being so severely over-rated and Solid going down, it's not hard to conceive that that Ocelot could fit into the gap between Liquid and Solid.

The extraploated rankings work on the assumption that characters will stay more or less constant year to year. If they didn't, the extraploated rankings would be almost completly useless. Since the rankings are typically done relative to Link, you just need to find how much Link has changed. This amount is determined by minimizing the change in strength of returning characters.

Like everything else with the extraploated standings, it's not perfect. However, it's still good enough for approximations.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Very broad approximations.

By the way, on Frog. Without the massive vote-stuffing that occurred in all three of his matches, that trio would have probably been Master Chief > Liquid Snake > Frog, and by a relatively wide margin between Chief and Liquid. Frog had little business winning either one of his matches.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.

Yeah, I agree with that. It does make sense to blame Frog for drops among the trio. I thought you were one of the "WHOAMG BUNGIE LINKED?!? AND MC IS TEH CHEATER" guys though...?

Isn't it funny that Magus is the source of the other possible crazy drop, too? (Tidus, Magus, Ganondorf)

Chrono Trigger fans don't seem much better than Diablo fans... heh heh.
---
He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21155016

Yeah, Ulti has claimed MC has gotten 5,000 votes from that link before.

Gone to bed.
---
Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio

The pace of this match is a bit slower than that of the Bowser-Sephiroth match. That can't be good for whatever (tiny) chance Ganon had of taking this championship. Gotta like his percentages though.
---
A soda a day invites tooth decay.

This current result is somewhat disappointing yet horribly expected. Boo.
---
Jon Thomson - 46/56, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Sephiroth
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

X-stats for Upper Contest Field:

Sephiroth: 50.00%
Bowser: 40.45%
Revolver Ocelot: 27.51%
Dr. Wily: 25.03%
Nemesis: 24.95%
Liquid Snake: 24.08%
Lavos: 21.37%
Vergil: 21.19%
Mother Brain: 18.90%
Ultros: 18.01%
Sigma: 17.74%
Andross: 16.50%
Ramirez: 16.30%
Ghaleon: 15.07%
Pyramid Head: 13.04%
Officer Tenpenny: 9.89%
---
Spring Contest Score: 48/56
Today's Pick: Ganondorf

Diablo 36.47% 4096
Ganondorf 63.53% 7136
TOTAL VOTES 11232

Going by Ganon (2004 adjusted), Diablo would place around 23.7% against a 2004 Link, which ranks in between Luigi and Tommy Vercetti. That's roughly 1% off from predicting Diablo/Kefka perfectly.

---
“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan

Diablo 35.99% 5232
Ganondorf 64.01% 9306
TOTAL VOTES 14538

Ganon appears to be taking advantage of the early morning vote.

---
“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan

DIABLO STATUS
Ass: Kicked
Name: Taken

This is good. Ganondorf is even overperforming a bit. Not as much as Bowser did, mind you. But that's excellent. I was uneasy with that horrendous Ganondorf pic, and less with Diablo's, because some people out there were sick enough to like the one he had against Ridley.

Let's get to tomorrow already!
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 46/56 - Matches: 24/29 - Rank: 01975/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

64.3% for Ganon right now. Definitely looks to be favoring him. <3

---
“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan

looks like Ganon will be taking the day vote as expected.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093