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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 137
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:12:48 PM | Message Detail
Good prediction from Soul.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:18:20 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth's percentage in the last hour: 61.83%

It'll be close if Bowser stays above 40% at this rate.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:27:25 PM | Message Detail
Bowser 40.83% 36746
Sephiroth 59.17% 53257
TOTAL VOTES 90003

And with 3 and a half hours to spare.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: Tai | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:27:44 PM | Message Detail
Bowser 40.83% 36745
Sephiroth 59.17% 53256
TOTAL VOTES 90001

3:30 hours to make 9999 votes. Think it can happen?
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (161 Signs!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:38:50 PM | Message Detail
If it keeps up the current pace, it'll be close. Cloud/Samus barely broke 100,000 votes, and it had 93381 votes at this time. We're currently at 90428.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:39:48 PM | Message Detail
Why is everything pointing at Ganondorf falling to around 26% against 2k4 Link. So far I have CATS, Luca and Master Hand (if I did the calculations right, also if I use the adjusted rankings it boosts him up to around 28%.)
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:40:55 PM | Message Detail
I think we'll get around 95,000. The voting is going to dramatically slow down soon.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:41:37 PM | Message Detail
Chichiri calculated Ganondorf at that same number using Alucard, too, and it's quite close to Tidus's 2004 number. Whether it's a coincidence or not, we'll have to see.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 8:42:17 PM | Message Detail
I could not agree with this more. Stats are a good way to get a general idea of strength and placing, but if people are solely using 1-2 (and sometimes 3) year old numerical data to guess current voting trends, I must simply laugh. Imagine someone using 1996 data for a 1999 contest. Now imagine their shock when Mario doesn't win.

Please people, LISTEN to yoblazer.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:08:00 PM | Message Detail
I'm gonna keep on 'til I get an answer or two on this: who would you take between Ultros and Kuja?

Before this contest started, I'd have taken Kuja without a shadow of a doubt. Now, I'm thinking Ultros would have it, though it would be close either way (winner with less than 55%).
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Despite being in an 11-way tie for 4th in the Guru challenge, I got totally owned by Yoblazer.
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:08:59 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Kuja. Though it can be anyone's match.
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Yoblazer can have my babies! And I really mean it!
PWNED heavily by the Guru Contest winner.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:19:22 PM | Message Detail
Since we're all bored, let's come up with Random Divisions From Hell™! Screw proper seeding and all that jazz (thought nothing TOO crazy). Just be evil.

(1)Diablo
(16)Kerrigan
(8)Kefka
(9)Dante
(5)CATS
(12)Master Hand
(4)Gordon Freeman
(13)Seymour Guado
(6)Liquid Snake
(11)Frog
(3)Sora
(14)Auron
(7)Master Chief
(10)Zero
(2)Magus
(15)Squall

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:23:20 PM | Message Detail
This is a half division from my SC2k5 bracket. Prior contests seeds are in parenthesis after the character's name, meaning that I tried to seed accurately by nominations.

3 Master Chief (3)
14 Magus (13)
6 Auron (8)
11 Ganondorf (12)
7 Zero (7)
10 Aeris Gainsborough (11)
2 Solid Snake (2)
15 Vincent Valentine (NA)

And another:

3 Ness (6)
14 Serge (NA)
6 Kefka (7)
11 Ken Masters (12)
7 Terra (NA)
10 Kerrigan (NA)
2 Luigi (3)
15 Akuma (NA)
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:24:27 PM | Message Detail
I cry if I had to fill out those brackets.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:26:45 PM | Message Detail
(1)Diablo
(16)Kerrigan
(8)Kefka
(9)Dante
(5)CATS
(12)Master Hand
(4)Gordon Freeman
(13)Seymour Guado
(6)Liquid Snake
(11)Frog
(3)Sora
(14)Auron
(7)Master Chief
(10)Zero
(2)MAGUS
(15)Squall

Capitalized > Bold/Italic > Bold > Italic
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:28:21 PM | Message Detail
(1) Kirby
(16) Vergil
(8) Vyse
(9) Bomberman
(5) Terra Branford
(12) Roll
(4) Dan Hibiki
(13) Serge
(6) Hal Emmerich
(11) Mother Brain
(3) Luigi
(14) Dr. Robotnik
(7) Little Mac
(10) Jim Raynor
(2) Yuffie Kisaragi
(15) Epona
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Yo Yogi? No, yoblazer! Congratulations to yoblazer for being the top Guru!
www.rpgdl.com
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:28:32 PM | Message Detail
Aw, shame Bowser lost throughout the day. Ganondorf looked like he had a chance, too...

And the Diablo/Ganondorf pic is simply a disgrace. Hello, Ceej? IT'S THE SEMIFINALS!
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 38/48 - Matches: 23/28 - Rank: 02070/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:29:47 PM | Message Detail
(1)Diablo
(9)Dante
(5)CATS
(13)Seymour Guado
(11)Frog
(14)Auron
(7)Master Chief
(2)Magus

(9) Dante
(13) Seymour Guado
(14) Auron
(2) Magus

(9) Dante
(2) Magus

(2) Magus
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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:35:15 PM | Message Detail
Here is my best attempt:

1) Solid Snake
16) Magus
8) Sora
9) Tidus
4) Vivi
13) Leon Kennendy
5) Yoshi
12) Shadow
3) Bowser
14) Auron
6) Diablo
11) Luigi
7) Zelda
10) Ryu
2) Gannondorf
15) Zero
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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:38:03 PM | Message Detail
1) Solid Snake
16) MAGUS
8) Sora
9) Tidus
4) Vivi
13) Leon Kennendy
5) Yoshi
12) Shadow
3) Bowser (I would not have picked this yesterday)
14) Auron
6) Diablo
11) Luigi (Because it's Luigi, dammit!)
7) Zelda
10) Ryu
2) Gannondorf
15) Zero
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: transience | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:41:17 PM | Message Detail
(1) Mario
(16) Zidane

(8) Tifa
(9) Chun Li

(5) Vivi
(12) Mog

(4) Ganon
(13) Raiden

(3) Magus
(14) Metroid

(6) Ganondorf
(11) Sub-Zero

(7) Liquid Snake
(10) Fei

(2) Master Chief
(15) Akuma

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:42:07 PM | Message Detail
I have to ask...Bowser or Solid Snake?
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:42:52 PM | Message Detail
I'd take King Koopa in that match any day of the week.
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Despite being in an 11-way tie for 4th in the Guru challenge, I got totally owned by Yoblazer.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:43:22 PM | Message Detail
1) Link
16) Terry Bogard
8) Miles "Tails" Prower
9) Alucard
5) Kirby
12) Protoman
4) Yoshi
13) Bomberman
6) Bowser
11) Vyse
3) Crono
14) Jill Valentine
7) Zelda
10) Liquid Snake
2) Solid Snake
15) Crash Bandicoot
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HRC total: 77592.6
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/31/2005 9:43:45 PM | Message Detail
Funny, this is how I picked it

1) Solid Snake - This was hard
9) Tidus
4) Vivi - Had a hard time with this one
12) Shadow - And this
3) Bowser
11) Luigi
10) Ryu
2) Gannondorf

1) Snake
4) Vivi - Hard time with this one
3) Bowser
2) Gannondorf

1) Snake
3) Gannondorf

3) Gannondorf

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Yoblazer made me look like Tanner in the Guru Contest.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:00:44 PM | Message Detail
(1)Diablo
(16)Kerrigan


...Ulti... ;_;

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:04:24 PM | Message Detail
Bowser > Solid Snake. I've been given some good reason to believe that MGS characters aren't exactly up to par with everyone else... or that they don't seem to be as strong as the stats would dictate. Add to that, that Snake hasn't been particularly impressive recently on top of Bowser's outstanding performances as of late and I'll be taking him for the upset.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: H__RR____H | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:07:48 PM | Message Detail
If I wasn't on a friend's computer, I'd be jumping in on the fun. As is...better not. I do know Sephiroth's really making that push for the 60-40 though.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:16:50 PM | Message Detail
Hmm...as Bowser falls in percentage, the "halfway stats" begin to look more reasonable. I'll post them again, assuming Bowser ends at 40.5%, with some character comparisons thrown in.

XS on 2k3 Link:
Sephiroth 42.40
(2k4 Samus 42.36)
(2k4 Mario 38.18)
(2k3 Ganondorf 34.72)
Bowser 34.34
(2k4 Tails 23.85)
Revolver Ocelot 23.36
(2k4 Viewtiful Joe 21.56)
Dr. Wily 21.25
Nemesis 21.18
Liquid Snake 20.42
(2k4 Vyse 19.67)
Lavos 18.12
Vergil 17.97
Mother Brain 16.02
Ultros 15.29
Sigma 14.20
Ramirez 13.85
(2k4 CATS 13.36)
Andross 13.21
Ghaleon 12.77
Pyramid Head 11.07
Officer Tenpenny 8.35

The only thing that's really jarring is Liquid's near 12% dive, but he looks pretty bad no matter what happens.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:21:17 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:21:41 PM | Message Detail
Already the highest vote total; I think it will end with about 97012 votes. The only match to break 100000 will be the final.
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Current Match Prediction -- Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Spring 2005 Contest -- 47/48 points
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:30:13 PM | Message Detail
The next match might shed some light onto the picture factor. Ganon is fugly as can be. If Diablo pulls out a very surprising performance, it will probably be because of that, I would guess.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:31:31 PM | Message Detail
The only positive in that picture for Ganon is that your eyes are drawn to him because of the bright colors; Diablo kind of fades into the red background.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:36:05 PM | Message Detail
The King of Evil is smiling. Not an evil smile, but an actual smile. That's pretty bad.

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:37:06 PM | Message Detail
I think Ganondorf looks awesome and evil in that picture. Same with Diablo.
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Current Match Prediction -- Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Spring 2005 Contest -- 47/48 points
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/31/2005 10:38:57 PM | Message Detail
Hey, did anyone by chance happen to archive my Top 25 Character/Game lists?

~*ST*~
---
*PWNED BY YOBLAZER in the Guru Contest*
Congrats, and hopefully you win the whole thing.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:24:27 PM | Message Detail
........bump
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HRC total: 77592.6
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:25:27 PM | Message Detail
I have to ask...Bowser or Solid Snake?

That's a tough one. Bowser's doing nearly as well on Sephiroth as Snake did on Mega Man. Then again, these stats are awfully messed up. Ocelot being stronger than Liquid by THAT much stands out like a sore thumb.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:26:31 PM | Message Detail
I'm very pleased that Bowser will hold onto his 40% in this match. That's awesome.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:39:05 PM | Message Detail
Gojira!!!
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:51:53 PM | Message Detail
Looks like we're going to finish with a tad over 97,000 votes. Not too shabby. I think we should be able to manage 100K for the final.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:57:52 PM | Message Detail
82.81% for Sephiroth to reach the finals.
---
Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:58:19 PM | Message Detail
80%.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/31/2005 11:59:04 PM | Message Detail
So I'm sitting here, 2 minutes before 2 AM

Bowser 40.45% 39370
Sephiroth 59.55% 57950
TOTAL VOTES 97320

It's great. Bowser held onto his 40% and we nearly got 100k total. Not bad at all. :)
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HRC total: 77592.6
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:00:44 AM | Message Detail
Turns out 85% had Sephiroth moving to the finals.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:00:56 AM | Message Detail
85.03% for Sephiroth.
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Yuna: Stay with me until the end. Please.
Tidus: Not until the end. Always.
From: Agent M | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:00:57 AM | Message Detail
Diablo 34.85% 23
Ganondorf 65.15% 43
TOTAL VOTES 66
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:01:48 AM | Message Detail
Diablo 37.64% 67
Ganondorf 62.36% 111
TOTAL VOTES 178

Go, Ganon!

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:01:58 AM | Message Detail
This poll seems to be going rather slowly for some reason.
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Yoblazer did rather well in the guru contest.
Rather well, indeed.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 6/1/2005 12:03:13 AM | Message Detail
Diablo 35% 126
Ganondorf 65% 234
TOTAL VOTES 360

Diablo ain't makin' a comeback this time.
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HRC total: 77592.6
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