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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 136
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:18:11 AM | Message Detail
Bowser > Ganon
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:18:26 AM | Message Detail
Part of me will be disappointed if Bowser wins, because I've had Mario winning every year, despite it being an upset pick. This year I went "cookie cutter".

But still, go Bowser!
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21155016
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:18:34 AM | Message Detail
Even better would be if Bowser turns out to be above Ganon... this could be our first sign.
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SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:18:53 AM | Message Detail
Bowser > Ganon

Hah! So you say...

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:19:35 AM | Message Detail
Lead is up to 40 now. Hold on, Bowser!

Bowser > Ganon as a personal preference and as a hope of contest strength.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:19:49 AM | Message Detail
Bowser > Ganon...but only in preference.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:20:08 AM | Message Detail
I've been calling Bowser > Ganon for a while now. And I bet he is. Heck, I've been calling Bowser > Mario, and I bet he is this time. I can't see Seph gaining 12% on this.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21155016
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:21:05 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 48.72% 950
Sephiroth 51.28% 1000
TOTAL VOTES 1950
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Current Match Prediction -- Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Spring 2005 Contest -- 47/48 points
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:21:19 AM | Message Detail
I must laugh my ass off at anyone trying to gauge character strengths based on past contest data, especially after seeing Liquid Snake and Robotnik getting ruined. It's plain to see that there is are new voting patterns here.

Which means that - I'll say it once again - Ganon versus Sephiroth might not be as one-sided as most people believe it will be.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:21:27 AM | Message Detail
This match already looks like it can top 100,000 total votes.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:21:40 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 48.55% 971
Sephiroth 51.45% 1029
TOTAL VOTES 2000
Check your entry, view the full bracket, view the contest stats, or discuss the contest on the Spring Contest Message Board.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:22:05 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but Bowser > Mario is silly.

Bowser 48.53% 971
Sephiroth 51.47% 1030
TOTAL VOTES 2001
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:22:09 AM | Message Detail
I've been calling Bowser > Ganon for a while now. And I bet he is.

I highly doubt it.

Heck, I've been calling Bowser > Mario

Credibility loss'd.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:22:29 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 48.45% 1002
Sephiroth 51.55% 1066
TOTAL VOTES 2068

Both over 1000 at this point.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:22:55 AM | Message Detail
Ganon > Bowser.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:23:27 AM | Message Detail
Ugh...That inequality is disgusting.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:23:38 AM | Message Detail
I've been calling Bowser > Ganon for a while now. And I bet he is.

Probably.
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Current Match Prediction -- Bowser vs. Sephiroth
Spring 2005 Contest -- 47/48 points
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:24:01 AM | Message Detail
Ugh...That inequality is disgusting.

Nothing disgusting about it. Ganon rocks, yo.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:24:04 AM | Message Detail
It's plain to see that there is are new voting patterns here.

And how is this "plain", exactly...? We haven't seen anything super-deviant from expectations (unless Bowser somehow does win this). Remember that the vast majority of characters are new. Kuja ranking well below expectations says nothing about new patterns.

Pic factor seems to be the better explanation, if one is even needed.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:24:36 AM | Message Detail
>_>

This is my favourite match of the contest so far.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:24:54 AM | Message Detail
I must laugh my ass off at anyone trying to gauge character strengths based on past contest data, especially after seeing Liquid Snake and Robotnik getting ruined. It's plain to see that there is are new voting patterns here.

I could not agree with this more. Stats are a good way to get a general idea of strength and placing, but if people are solely using 1-2 (and sometimes 3) year old numerical data to guess current voting trends, I must simply laugh. Imagine someone using 1996 data for a 1999 contest. Now imagine their shock when Mario doesn't win.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:24:58 AM | Message Detail
We haven't seen anything super-deviant from expectations

Sephiroth/Liquid.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:25:00 AM | Message Detail
I've been calling Bowser > Ganon for a while now.

I've also been saying this is possible for a while.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:25:05 AM | Message Detail
If Ganon can do better than this, my favorite match will be next round.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: PrettyBoyMarth | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:25:27 AM | Message Detail
Im not surprised, its basically everyone who hates Sephiroth will vote for Bowser, and thats all the fanboys of the all characters who Seph beat plus Nintendo fanboys+Anti-FF people+anti-Seph etc, it evens out.


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"I punched my pregnant GF in the stomach and she had a miscarriage lol"- coleipoo
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:26:13 AM | Message Detail
I must laugh my ass off at anyone trying to gauge character strengths based on past contest data, especially after seeing Liquid Snake and Robotnik getting ruined.

For as unfortunate as it is that he got decimated, we had no data on him or anyone/anything else in his four-pack before that. He was ungaugable.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:11 AM | Message Detail
While it's true that we had no prior stats on Robotnik, do we really need any? Or are you really going to believe that CATS could beat Robotnik?

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:24 AM | Message Detail
I don't mean that Bowser is actually stronger than Mario. What I mean is that Bowser would break 38% in this match, which Mario did not do.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21155016
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:30 AM | Message Detail
Don't look now, but Bowser's trying to cut into the lead.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:38 AM | Message Detail
I would take Robotnik over CATS without a second thought.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:55 AM | Message Detail
I could not agree with this more. Stats are a good way to get a general idea of strength and placing, but if people are solely using 1-2 (and sometimes 3) year old numerical data to guess current voting trends, I must simply laugh. Imagine someone using 1996 data for a 1999 contest. Now imagine their shock when Mario doesn't win.

Well said.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:27:56 AM | Message Detail
That Ganondorf guy might not have been socrazy afterall >_>

v_v

If only it were true, and not but a fools hope.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:28:34 AM | Message Detail
I can't believe Bowser is still over 45%, let alone his current 48%+. This is awesome.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:29:02 AM | Message Detail
This would go from the worst contest ever to the best if Bowser can somehow pull this one out.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:29:27 AM | Message Detail
I'd take Robo > CATS, but CATS very well could win that somehow; Robo DID do worse against Ganon than Ansem did, and Ansem had the fight of his life for about a third of the match.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:29:31 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth/Liquid.

That isn't what I would call super-deviant. Off by a lot, certainly, but nothing that would even remotely indicate a core change in voting patterns.

Unadjusted Liquid would be at 28.89% against 2K3 Link; say that Sephiroth is really at 50% on 2K3 Link. That would give Sephiroth 71.1%. That's a ways off from 75.92%, but Liquid being overrated was talked about ever since last contest.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:29:33 AM | Message Detail
Maybe LordAceron knew something we didn't XD
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not smurf
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:30:27 AM | Message Detail
I'm feeling more positive about Sephiroth's 2004 number being the right one here, meaning he overshot Liquid by about 10%.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: FFDragon | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:30:36 AM | Message Detail
I would take Robotnik over CATS without a second thought.

And I'd do just the opposite. ~_^
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Insomnia is like having immortality, except you're gonna die. ~PepsiPlunge
yoblazer made me look like a jobber in the Guru contest...
From: creativename | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:30:51 AM | Message Detail
Ganon isn't as much of a board favorite as Bowser is; he probably won't be able to pull this off next round.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:03 AM | Message Detail
Now I've got to play Paper Mario, heard Bowser is awesome in that game.
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not smurf
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:10 AM | Message Detail
Of course Sephiroth's most recent number will be the closest.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:27 AM | Message Detail
I'm wondering how long Bowser will be able to hold on. 30 minutes in, and the lead has yet to reach 100.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:32 AM | Message Detail
Unadjusted Liquid would be at 28.89% against 2K3 Link

I can't find any evidence to back up this statement. Liquid Snake wasn't in the 2k3 contest.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:53 AM | Message Detail
It doesn't really matter how much of a board favorite he is considering that Sephiroth is far more liked around here. And I wouldn't even say that the board is contributing to this anymore.

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“I am the Queen of Blades, and my stare alone would reduce you to ashes. You and your ilk cease to amuse me. Prepare yourself for oblivion’s embrace.” Kerrigan
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:31:58 AM | Message Detail
Nominate Raiden, fools, visit my topic!
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21155016
From: Agent M | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:32:08 AM | Message Detail
I was hoping Bowser would get over 40% but didn't think it would really happen.

Can he stay above 40 by the end of the match?

Man if G-dorf can do even better, that would ******* rule.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:32:16 AM | Message Detail
It's still under 100.

Good, GOD.

This is awesome.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:32:22 AM | Message Detail
If you didn't vote for Bowser, you can just get out.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/31/2005 12:32:33 AM | Message Detail
Headbounce
Headbounce
Headbounce
Tabletop
Tabletop
Flip City, Twister City, Tabletop
Flip City, Twister City, Tabletop
Roll City, Treble Twist, Tabletop
Z-Flip City, Double Twist, Tabletop
Treble Flip, Twister City, Tabletop (, Roll?)
Roll City, Treble Twist, Tabletop
Treble Roll, Tabletop, Flip
Double Roll, Tabletop, Double Flip
Treble Flip, Double Z-Flip, Twist
Treble Z-Flip, Double Flip, Twist, Tabletop

Downer
590 points

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"LucidFaia" Score: 47, Rank: 23 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
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