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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 135
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/29/2005 9:41:12 PM | Message Detail
Which should happen 2nd and 3rd...but you'd have to give one of the two and easy 4 pack.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/29/2005 9:42:10 PM | Message Detail
Which should happen 2nd and 3rd...but you'd have to give one of the two and easy 4 pack.

I know. Well, that or one of them would have to get massively underseeded.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/29/2005 10:15:42 PM | Message Detail
I gotta know why some of you still think a picture would make any noticable difference at all. If you know a character 10 to 1 you know them by name, and if you don't know either character chances are you just don't vote. Don't believe me? Look at how many votes Sephiroth gets in his matches then look at two pieces of lower end fodder matching up. Notice a huge difference in vote totals? That's because most people who don't know either are probably inclined to vote for neither. Pictures are not a huge factor.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 10:22:17 PM | Message Detail
I agree pictures usually don't make a big difference...but, to play on the other side of this field for a second, most contest matches are well above the average PotD's held during the off-season. Perhaps it's just the fact that there is even a picture there as opposed to it being another text-only poll, but contest polls definitely get more votes for a reason.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/29/2005 10:23:27 PM | Message Detail
I gotta know why some of you still think a picture would make any noticable difference at all. If you know a character 10 to 1 you know them by name, and if you don't know either character chances are you just don't vote. Don't believe me? Look at how many votes Sephiroth gets in his matches then look at two pieces of lower end fodder matching up. Notice a huge difference in vote totals? That's because most people who don't know either are probably inclined to vote for neither. Pictures are not a huge factor.

In matches where I don't have a preference for either of the characters involved (like in cases where both are from games that I've never played), my vote has been based on which character I thought looked cooler. Ignorant, perhaps, but it's probably a bit more common than you'd think.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/29/2005 10:24:23 PM | Message Detail
Maybe that attracts them down there, but it certainly isn't going to influence thousands of people to vote for a character they've never heard of. It's clear that thousands of people abstain in amtches between characters they don't know.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 10:44:12 PM | Message Detail
No no, I agree, the picture, except probably in the most extreme instances (and I don't think we've seen one yet), isn't gonna effect thousands of votes. However, the pictures seem to attract tens of thousands of votes...I think it's still possible that a noticable effect could be had by the picture. For example, the last poll we had before this contest was the upset-poll, which had about 45,000 votes. Now, let's take the poll just three days after that (Revolver/Nemesis), which had about 77,000 votes. That's a 32,000 vote-total difference...let's assume just one percent picture-voted. This match had no clear-cut winner for the pic-factor, but since Revolver is almost two different characters and the picture can only show one whereas Nemesis is just Nemesis no matter, let's just assume for our purposes he won the pic-factor completely and took all 320 of the pic-factor votes. That's about .42% of the votes there, which can make a difference...

...rarely would a pic factor completely go to anybody though, and it's debatable on how much it could actually exist. On one hand, matches with high-profile characters are less likely to need good pictures since they already have large enough fanbases, so this pic-factor effects them less. On the other hand, matches with fodder are less likely to draw in vote totals, so the pic, while being a stronger force, would have less potential to effect the match.

Essentially, I think it's a small factor, but it's a factor. Catch my drift?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:05:55 PM | Message Detail
If you know a character 10 to 1 you know them by name

Even if that was true, that's quite a bit. That's can end being a swing of over 4-5%. Assuming CATS did do better by about 10% due to a recognizable pic, I believe Ganondorf would land pretty close to his 2k3 ranking.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:09:55 PM | Message Detail
I do indeed, I just can't imagine one pic of CATS being significantly better than another pic of CATS. I'm sure the pic alone is bringing people down there, but I don't think (especially with CATS) people are going to go "oh, he looks cool" and vote for them in sizable enough numbers to throw our stats out the window. It's obvious that thousands of people don't vote when neither is a character they know, so I'm thinking that a good pic as opposed to a bad one doesn't do more than a couple hundred votes.... but to think that 2-3% of 80k people can be swayed because you can sorta can't tell that CATS is CATS in his normal rd 1 pic should be considered ridiculous. I'd be willing to bet of all the characters that are unkown enough to need pics he isn't one. I'm willing to bet that either you know CATS and will vote for him (or against him because he's been an old, lame fad since before the contest began) or you don't no pic in the world will draw you to ihm (because even "good" pics of CATS won't sway the uninclined to vote). Really, think to yourself... how many people are not going to know who the "all your base" guy is when his name is there and a pic (be it bad or not, personally I have seen that pic in all your base videos) of him is also present. Does 2500 people not sound wrong to you? Can a picture of CATS make that sort of difference when from my experience both are used in the one video tha makes him of note at all? I can't see it, and I'd bet the stats will lean much closer to a non-overperformance from CATS when the time comes.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:16:00 PM | Message Detail
I don't know why it's hard to believe that a picture can't have an effect on a match. We've seen plenty of people on this Board comment on pics making a difference to them. What's to say that there aren't many people not on the boards that think that way?

Link vs. Cloud in 2k3 is my classic example. Both are extremely popular characters. It's inevitable that there are many, MANY people who like them both. A less favorable Wind Waker Link vs. Kingdom Hearts Bat Cloud is more than enough to sway a voter. It may be something simple, but you can't deny that there ARE people that think as such. It's pretty clear that if the subject is brought up on the board, it's going through the minds of a good number of the voters... especially in a match of over 120k votes.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:17:16 PM | Message Detail
And guys, guess what time it is?
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I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest! *grumble*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:17:24 PM | Message Detail
I agree on the CATS perspective, unless we're goin' to say that Ansem is anti-voted like he hailed from Pokemon.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:17:30 PM | Message Detail
"Even if that was true, that's quite a bit. That's can end being a swing of over 4-5%."

Ye,s but most of the rest know them by picture, at lest. Frankly, I'd be inclined to believe that no more than a couple thousand pic vote and that those would lean towards the inevitable winner anyway on a usual basis since even the informed voters tend to vote based on how cool a character looks as much as how cool of a personailty they have. I just can't see a picture swinging that heavily.

"Assuming CATS did do better by about 10% due to a recognizable pic, I believe Ganondorf would land pretty close to his 2k3 ranking."

If I could bet my sig on that I would, but some lucky guru already owns it for a month. If I had another account over 75 karma I'd bet this one. As it stands, I'll bet you one thing that very so often isn't wagered on that matter... If Ganon is closer to his 2k3 ranking then what my stats are calling him at I'll kiss your ass for the remainder of my stay on this board. So would you like to make a wager? You taking Ganon at 29.91+ and me taking him at 29.90- vs. 2k4 Link?
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:21:07 PM | Message Detail
That's a sexy bet we might be seeing.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:29:49 PM | Message Detail
I don't see why it is so impossibly hard to believe that CATS benefited from a mixture of both his best picture in this contest and bracket voting. It was a match of two very weak characters, I don't understand why those two things wouldn't have some sort of affect on how Ansem performed against CATS, and ultimately how Ganon performed on Ansem.

I also believe that Ganon will rank closely to his 2003 value.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:33:00 PM | Message Detail
I'm sure CATS benefitted some, but as for how much, I don't think it's alot. I really have begun to doubt Ganon deserves over 30% against Link like 2k3 suggests he should (Chichiri's gettin' me drunk on his kool-aid over here), though I'm confident he's gonna be above 25.9% on Link, too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:34:19 PM | Message Detail
He may not be at 34.72% when all is said and done, but he won't rank far below that.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:55:00 PM | Message Detail
22% have Diablo winning the division, I predict.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:55:02 PM | Message Detail
We play prediction % yet, and I just missed it? If not, I am saying somewhere around 18.27%.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:55:38 PM | Message Detail
...and in the freakin' time it took me to backspace to add a period, I get virtually depantsed. Damn you, Harrich.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:55:39 PM | Message Detail
Heh, me and Tnote's on that.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:56:25 PM | Message Detail
I'll got with 16.76%
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I don't want to say this, but yoblazer's making me for him pwning me in the Guru Contest! *grumble*
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:56:28 PM | Message Detail
...and I get retribution by one of the two seconds you had me by... =p

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:58:30 PM | Message Detail
looks like TRE isn't here to take that bet anymore. Oh well.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/29/2005 11:58:54 PM | Message Detail
--If Albedo = Laharl, Diablo beats Kefka with 55.74%.

Albedo's not all that far away from Laharl, afterall. I knew him = Luca wasn't right, but I didn't think he'd end up as close to Laharl as this.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:00:39 AM | Message Detail
All four perfects had Kefka. How about that. =P
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:00:57 AM | Message Detail
all perfects had kefka over diablo!!!
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:01:13 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 61.54% 32
Dr. Robotnik 38.46% 20
TOTAL VOTES 52

14.76% supported Diablo, holy ****...AND NO PERFECTS!!!!!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:01:39 AM | Message Detail
Good, good stuffs. No perfects, no how. Not while I'm here. :)
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:01:52 AM | Message Detail
No more perfects =(

Got vote seven, and it was 3-3 when I voted.

Under 15% with the Lord of Terror? Yeesh... and to think if I had filled out my bracket in time I coulda made the leaderboard =(

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:02:05 AM | Message Detail
I love Diablo for making it no perfects.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:02:18 AM | Message Detail
No more perfects left. That means yoblazer and I are back in business. :)

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"LucidFaia" Score: 39, Rank: 44 (T2), Pick: Diablo
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:02:50 AM | Message Detail
Hey Lucid, how does it feel to be monopolizing the top 50?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:02:52 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:03:55 AM | Message Detail
Ganon is over 70% at this point...

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:04:44 AM | Message Detail
I got the tenth vote, and then Robotnik had 60% on Ganondork.

Anyway how much should Robotnik get on Ganondorf if he wants to be as stronger than Tails?
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Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:04:53 AM | Message Detail
Which makes me a happy panda.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:05:25 AM | Message Detail
Wow, 3 of the tied people have Ganon, and no doubt half wont be eligible. Good stuffs, looks like some board 8ers can win prizes.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:06:04 AM | Message Detail
Robo wants to not be doubled, that's for sure...
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:06:27 AM | Message Detail
Hey Lucid, how does it feel to be monopolizing the top 50?

I'm not sure what you mean.

Ganon is over 70% at this point...

If this keeps up, then the chances of another Diablo win are roughly zero.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 43, Rank: 24 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:06:55 AM | Message Detail
Did you not notice your alt. regained its rightful place on the top 50...?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:07:01 AM | Message Detail
Zylo:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=21240229&message=228574531
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=21240229&message=228669995

More comparisons than God ever intended.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:07:03 AM | Message Detail
Over 72%....

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:07:31 AM | Message Detail
Ugh.
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And how many points do you have, again? - fedor
And how many contests have you won, again? - UltimaterializerX
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:07:49 AM | Message Detail
47 MyWorldIsSNES 42 Sephiroth

Both of my brackets are in the top fifty? XD

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"LucidFaia" Score: 43, Rank: 24 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:07:56 AM | Message Detail
Did I say 72%? I meant 73%...

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:08:50 AM | Message Detail
40% if you adjust Ganon through Alucard on the adjusted Sephiroth (My Ganon)

33.5% if you go by unadjusted 2k3 Ganon.

In otherwords, Robo < Tails barring any huge day vote swings.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:09:29 AM | Message Detail
I can't believe Ganon is doing this. This contest isn't making a whole lot of sense... character strengths are way out of proportion to what they used to be.

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"LucidFaia" Score: 43, Rank: 24 (T1), Pick: Ganondorf
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:09:53 AM | Message Detail
Kuja's going to look like absolute crap if it stays like this.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/30/2005 12:10:04 AM | Message Detail
*jaw drops* 73%??? But...but...that puts Kuja and Master Hand below CATS....
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
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