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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 134
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:00:00 PM | Message Detail
And I've already made it abundantly clear that thinking he underperformed completely is absolutely ridiculous

And why is that, exactly?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:00:32 PM | Message Detail
I agree he is Square, but CJay could have him go either way. I seriously want to see him in this contest just to see where he falls. Its such a wide range.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:01:30 PM | Message Detail
I agree he is Square, but CJay could have him go either way

If he calls Sora Disney, he'll call Geno Square.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:03:13 PM | Message Detail
Or maybe he can call him Squtendo and have him not apply to either cap.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:03:56 PM | Message Detail
Nah, Geno was one of the characters CJayC specifically mentioned got "capped" last summer.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:04:48 PM | Message Detail
And why is that, exactly?

Because there is nothing I've seen that would lead me to believe that Tidus underperformed by ~9% of what he was actually suppose to get. I find it much more likely that he underperformed by a few percentage points, but did, in fact, take a drop. If you want to bring up bias, there's certainly that playing a good role in you thinking that there was that large of an underperformance... for whatever reason.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:05:11 PM | Message Detail
I wish I could garner up support to get him in this time. He definitely deserves a shot over Kefka and Meg Ryan.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:06:31 PM | Message Detail
If Mega Man can underperform on Link, why can't Tidus underperform on Mega Man?
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:07:52 PM | Message Detail
I never said that Tidus didn't underperform on Mega Man. I said that I found it absurd to believe that that entire thing was him underperforming. And for the record, I don't believe all of what Mega Man did was an underperformance. He should not have been given his 2003 value for doing that horribly against Link.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:44:37 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:49:00 PM | Message Detail
I believe Tidus can perform better on Ganondrof than Frog can against Ganon.. Tidus > Ganon
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~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 5/28/2005 1:49:46 PM | Message Detail
I meant to say Tidus > Frog

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~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:12:47 PM | Message Detail
You know, Ghaleon and Ramirez are looking better now that L.Snake is being destroyed...I like that.

Wow...well, on the plus side, I think that today's match makes Auron and Vivi look that much more impressive. As of now, I'd take Auron over Solid Snake, and probably Sonic.

You'd take Auron over Sonic? No, wait, you mean Sonic over Solid Snake, right?

Okay, assuming Seph 2K4 = Seph 2K3, maybe we could say that Sephiroth didn't SFF either Auron nor Vivi. So, they characters would all be measured at:

Sephiroth : 49.71%
Sly Cooper: 13.54%
Vivi: 29.57%
Donkey Kong: 25.75%
Auron: 32.11%
Scorpion: 22.58%
Ness: 22.44%
Jak: 20.17%

I'm sure many have done this before, but it's interesting to take a look at it again.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:24:03 PM | Message Detail
If Mega Man can underperform on Link, why can't Tidus underperform on Mega Man?

Well said.
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RPG/Square character /= instant win. Robotnik has proved such and owned my ass.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:31:33 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth 75% 47988
Liquid Snake 25% 16000

And there's the tripling...
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:36:27 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth 75% 48224
Liquid Snake 25% 16073
TOTAL VOTES 64297

Muahahaha, triple'd!
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HRC total: 77592.6
Vote for Kefka? >_>;;
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:42:41 PM | Message Detail
Well said.

The reasoning for Mega Man's underperformance on Link isn't something I've ever bought either. And at that, I've already stated that while Mega Man could have underperformed on Link, it would not have been so much as to take him back up to his 2003 value. I think adjusting him to that has been rather wrong for a while now.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:50:05 PM | Message Detail
Ruin Division: Round 3 - Match 27 – (1)Kefka vs. (7)Diablo
Three tough opponents in a row? God must hate Diablo.

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka - Lettuce remind you of the fact that he does not deserve a 1-seed.
Round 1 – vs. Mithos (Kefka: 63.98% - Mithos: 36.02%)
Round 2 – vs. Wesker (Kefka: 70.37% - Wesker: 29.63%)

Yeah, I didn’t make those Round 2 results up. I swear.

Diablo - The Spanish representative in the Contest.
Round 1 – vs. Ridley (Diablo: 57.65% - Ridley: 42.35%)
Round 2 – vs. M. Bison (Diablo: 52.88% - M. Bison: 47.12%)

Diablo takes down the Street Fighter in a close match.

Well, Diablo “upsets” another of his opponents. Looks like that training from StarCraft is paying off. But now, he is going to attempt something that not even StarCraft could do. He is going to try to win his division. Sounds like a tough task, but there isn’t an SSB:M standing in his way like there was with StarCraft. No, this time, the opponent is…..Kefka!!!

Diablo hasn’t had a break thus far. From Ridley, to Bison, and now Kefka, and possibly Ganondorf/Robotnik next (trying to be technical here folks, so I have to include them both). But let’s focus on Diablo’s task at hand here. Kefka scored only 64% on Mithos. Now at the time, we thought that Kefka’s score was horrible. He was showing that he was weak. But then in Round 2, Kefka blows us all away by putting up over 70% on Wesker, who had beaten Luca in the previous round 60-40. This win would throw Kefka up at Dante level…..DANTE LEVEL. That is wrong on some many levels! So either Luca’s stats are messed up, or Kefka is actually a lot stronger than he looks.

Speaking of people being a lot stronger than they look, we STILL don’t know where Diablo’s strength is. Nothing was answered against Ridley, nothing was answered against Bison. Now, we may finally get some hints and answers about where Diablo, and the rest of his four-pack, lie. Basically, this match is a stronger-looking Kefka vs. the unknown Diablo. Another toss-up match in this evil division.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kefka will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kefka 51% - Diablo 49%



Ulti’s Analysis

This is one of the first ever late round matchups in which we have no clue what's going to happen beforehand. In the entire Ruin Division, only Luca Blight has been in one of these contests before, and he's nothing but a joke. You can throw all the numbers you wish at this match, but truthfully, there's little if any case that can be made for either character's chances. The only real given we have is that Kefka likely has a minor bracket support advantage, but that's negligible at best. Bison had the brackets behind him against Diablo, and look what happened.

Both characters are fairly strong, and we have no idea what's going to happen. You can't beat matches like that. As for who I think will win, I'm just making a pure guess. Truthfully, I have no idea.

Kefka with 50.05%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/28/2005 2:50:18 PM | Message Detail
Soul’s Analysis

Got to love Diablo. Three high profile matches in a row. He overcame tough competition in Ridley first round and even tougher in M. Bison in the second round. Now, he looks to fight FFVI's main villain Kefka in the Ruin Division Finals. Just want to say that even though my bracket it ruined because of Sin and Kuja, I had this match already in mind as Diablo's toughest challenge. Not once have I thought that Diablo was weaker than Ridley or M. Bison.

Enough about my showboating and let's get on with the match. Kefka came off a very, very impressive win against Wesker last round. Diablo came off another impressive win over Bison.

Let's begin by looking at their opponents on the way here. Kefka performed horribly against Mithos, but then shocked us all with a blowout win against Wesker. Diablo was supposed to lose to Ridley, but managed to win. He then had a 50/50 shot against Bison, but beat him with over 2000 votes. So, I would say that Diablo has been more impressive throughout his fourpack.

Now, Kefka is ranked 34 in the stats. Right under Tails. Of course, being new to the contest, Diablo is not ranked yet. The question is, will you rank Diablo higher than Tails? I don't know about you, but I'd picture Diablo getting the win quite easily. So, if Diablo > Tails, then I believe that Diablo > Kefka.

Of course, the X-Stats aren't perfect, but I guess you have to use them sometimes. Anyways, Diablo wins with 52.34%.



Outback’s Analysis

MWEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

I've heard a lot of people basically looking past this match already, and even a couple people asking if Diablo can beat Ganondorf. I really wish these people would wake up. You'd have to be an idiot to think that Diablo has a chance to beat Ganondorf, and thinking that Diablo beating Kefka is a foregone conclusion isn't exactly the smartest thing either. I like working with the XStats, and last night I did some work with them.

Albedo is not strong. We know this. The question is how weak he is. I believe that Albedo is around the 12.50 area, between Terry Bogard and Luca. With Albedo at 12.50, we see the following.

M. Bison: 19.80 on Link (Between Jill and V. Joe)
Diablo: 21.01 on Link (Between Kefka and Bomberman), 49.53 on Kefka
Ridley: 17.80 on Link (Between Protoman and Crash)

It's not that Kefka is that strong; it's that Bison/Diablo/Ridley are weak.

Kefka 50.47, Diablo 49.53



Inviso’s Analysis

This is it…the final possibly interesting match of the contest. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Actually, it wasn’t THAT good, but whatever. Anyway, thus far, Kefka delivered beat downs to weak cult characters (forgive me Wesker). The point is…he did well…but on characters that are weak as hell. Hell, he had trouble doing well on MITHOS. Anyway, Diablo has had two very close matches thus far against a Nintendo villain, and a Street Fighter villain, two fan bases that are relatively strong on Gamefaqs.

Anyway, the Blizzard factor is big in these tournaments, propelling Starcraft to the Elite 8, and now doing the same for Diablo. Anyway, normally, the Blizzard factor is outshined by the Square factor, and had this been anyone else (except the two first round Square losers) I would say Diablo would be out of luck. But remember…this if Kefka. Trouble beating Pacman Kefka. He’s just not THAT strong. Diablo winning means my alt only loses 4 points overall (from one four pack) and so, I’m rooting for him.

My Prediction: Diablo with 50.23%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:07:49 PM | Message Detail
You'd have to be an idiot to think that Diablo has a chance to beat Ganondorf

I'll hold you to this.

Anyways: I wasn't that surprised that Kefka annihilated Wesker. Luca Blight and Wesker were both fodder.
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Current Match Prediction -- Sephiroth vs. Liquid Snake
Spring 2005 Contest -- 35/36 points
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:10:41 PM | Message Detail
In the entire Ruin Division, only Luca Blight has been in one of these contests before, and he's nothing but a joke.

No comment.
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:14:25 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth 75.06% 50000
Liquid Snake 24.94% 16612
TOTAL VOTES 66612
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Current Match Prediction -- Sephiroth vs. Liquid Snake
Spring 2005 Contest -- 35/36 points
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:15:01 PM | Message Detail
You'd have to be an idiot to think that Diablo has a chance to beat Ganondorf

I'm an idiot then. I don't think Diablo will, but to say he doesn't have a chance over someone who ranked below CATS in the last SC is just silly.
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Jon Thomson - 30/36, today: Sephiroth, tomorrow: Ridley
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:23:47 PM | Message Detail
That's why we have a factor called "Same Fanbase Factor"

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~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:27:42 PM | Message Detail
Kefka will win with 57.36% of the vote.

It will play out much like Robotnik Vs Master Hand: Kefka taking the night and early morning to build up a respectable lead, and Diablo surging through the day to knock him down a few precentage points, but never really do enough damage to make an actual comeback.

YEAH THAT'S RIGHT, *****ES!
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:30:25 PM | Message Detail
Look at DiabloII.net

It looks like there won't be a new link tomorrow which is good news for Kefka.


Oh and Liquid is getting 25% on Sephiroth, and Scorpion got 25% on Link in 2002. So if Sephiroth < Link then how close would a Scorpion VS Liquid match be?
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Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:33:52 PM | Message Detail
YES!

YESYESYES!

Good thing most of those people won't bother to remember to go!

YAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAY!

KEFKAAAAAAAAAA!
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:35:04 PM | Message Detail
Didn't they just post it during the match in Diablo versus Bison?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:35:53 PM | Message Detail
Kefka will win.
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HRC total: 77592.6
Vote for Kefka? >_>;;
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:36:11 PM | Message Detail
Not that close at all. Liquid would beat Scorpion with at least 55-60%.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 3:43:50 PM | Message Detail
If you want to bring up bias, there's certainly that playing a good role in you thinking that there was that large of an underperformance... for whatever reason.

Yeah, because I have difficulty buying that Tidus and Shadow took large proportional dips.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:01:39 PM | Message Detail
8 hours left, and we're already at 70,000 votes. This will easily take the top spot and should have no problem breaking 90K even.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:03:57 PM | Message Detail
That's why we have a factor called "Same Fanbase Factor"

You people make these factors up as you go along. They're not worth the paper they're printed on.
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Jon Thomson - 30/36, today: Sephiroth, tomorrow: Ridley
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:06:21 PM | Message Detail
Thank goodness we don't print them on paper then.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:06:50 PM | Message Detail
It looks like there won't be a new link tomorrow which is good news for Kefka.

You do realize that he posted the upcoming matches for Diablo and a link to GameFAQs. It's high up on the front page as well. It isn't as if there will not be a link at all.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:07:35 PM | Message Detail
I agree to that in some extent, but not with SFF. Considering Gannon just destroyed the character that BEAT CATS. You cant honestly say you believe Bowser, Gannon, and Magus are as low as the unadjusted stats say they are.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:08:16 PM | Message Detail
Kefka taking the night and early morning to build up a respectable lead,

The only time you'll see Kefka do anything is during the late night - the board vote. After that, Diablo is going to rip right through any lead Kefka may have had.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:10:21 PM | Message Detail
There is going to be no ripping occuring tommorow. If Diablo is stronger, its not by more than a few percents.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:11:50 PM | Message Detail
At the minimum, I'm expecting Diablo to win with 53%.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:12:51 PM | Message Detail
10% under what HM predicts, just like Diablo/Ridley and Diablo/Bison and countless other matches, and that sounds about right.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:13:18 PM | Message Detail
That would be my maximum for Diablo.

Though...with the possibility that there is no 20XX Factor (Kefka is the only one who seems to be acting like there was, for what it's worth), Kefka wouldn't be at 22.75% on 2003 Link. He'd be very close to Duke Nukem. If Diablo rips Kefka a new one, then we'll see about that.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:13:25 PM | Message Detail
Diablo was also supposed to rip through Bison with 65% of the vote.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:14:41 PM | Message Detail
Well, in those two matches I was never off by 10%.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:15:15 PM | Message Detail
He was off by more than 10% in both of Diablo's matches.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:15:25 PM | Message Detail
That would be my maximum for Diablo.

It certainly will not.

---
“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:15:27 PM | Message Detail
Weren't you saying around 55% for Ridley and 60% for Diablo? That evens out to about 10%.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:15:55 PM | Message Detail
60% for Ridley and 65% for Diablo.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:17:03 PM | Message Detail
Well, then, I'm quite confident in Kefka.
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:17:56 PM | Message Detail
I might be the only one, but the only one of these two I wouldn't be surprised if he won easily is Kefka.

Sure, Diablo has looked impressive so far, but come on. We know nothing about the two that he's beaten. Sephiroth's drubbing of Liquid today suddenly makes Lavos (and by ricochet, Mother Brain) look much worse than they did a round ago.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/28/2005 4:18:16 PM | Message Detail
Heh. That's kind of funny, confident in Kefka.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”
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