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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 134
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:31:25 PM | Message Detail
I'm lightning in a bottle! I'm an earthquake in a can!

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm



*Match Pictures*

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:31:39 PM | Message Detail
WHAT SO SOON WTF ULTI!1@?1@?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: sidharta | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:33:02 PM | Message Detail
<Tag>A bit too soon, but at least I got a chance to tag it early.</Tag>

---
Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:34:41 PM | Message Detail
So late?!?!

---
Explicit Content, having fun, being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:36:13 PM | Message Detail
So soon?

But theres a good 200 posts left in the old one!
---
"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:59:57 PM | Message Detail
You need to make CS&D - Part 135 and 136 simultaniously, just to see the outrage. =)
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:09:53 PM | Message Detail
2002 Link = 2003 Link
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: spork_n_knife | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:11:16 PM | Message Detail
2002 Link = 2003 Link

Pi = 3
---
SPORK N KNIFE
Yeahhhhhhhhhhh
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:10:02 AM | Message Detail
This match is making me cringe. Dead serious.

I never thought Liquid would get his ass kicked this bad...so now he's barely stronger than Vergil? Man, that makes his performance against Frog, and Frog's performance against Snake really ****ing weird then.

Frog or Liquid must've overperformed last year, because otherwise this makes no sense.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:12:18 AM | Message Detail
It very well could have been Liquid; remember that Solid Snake lost the last three hours worth of updates to Frog while Liquid kept toe-to-toe with Frog.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:12:31 AM | Message Detail
Wait, what am I talking about? I don't believe in X-stats. >_>
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:17:46 AM | Message Detail
I don't believe in DNA. It's all a Russian conspiracy originated in Prague by the evil witch-doctor Ukelele.
---
Current Score: 15/15.
Tomorrows Pick: Kuja.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:18:35 AM | Message Detail
I don't believe in Cambodians.....
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:55:23 AM | Message Detail
Bravo Dabu, for an on-topic 500th post!
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:55:27 AM | Message Detail
The funny thing is that there are probably 20 people watching this topic like a hawk, waiting for the 499th post so they can steal 500.

Aye, I was waiting to unload with a YOGA FIRE but missed.
---
Jon Thomson - 30/36, today: Sephiroth, tomorrow: Ridley
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:55:34 AM | Message Detail
How ironic each of the last two posts were.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:56:46 AM | Message Detail
I actually thought my post was going to be 499 and that my last request was wishful thinking.

Works out either way I suppose. ^^
---
"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:56:54 AM | Message Detail
And 25% of those with a bracket bracket-voting? That'd be just sad. Now, that would account for, like, 7-8% of all voters... nah, way too big.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 7:58:05 AM | Message Detail
Don't forget to take into account zero-brackets and favorites-brackets if we're gonna try to figure out a decent percentage.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:00:37 AM | Message Detail
Besides, the fact is, bracket-voting probably falls into each character's intrinsic strength. Why would Sephiroth NOT have strong bracket support against ANYONE not named Cloud or Link?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:01:34 AM | Message Detail
Assuming that everyone with a score of 10 or under was likely going for a zero bracket, I'd say that roughly 1% of brackets are zeroes.

In other words, it is very likely a negligible amount.
---
"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud
From: TisRiley | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:02:07 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:04:07 AM | Message Detail
That is true, and it may be a nonexistent factor in most matches. I find it more likely that it does make a difference in those close four packs though.

Obviously we can't account for everything. It would be unreasonable to try to adjust for the pictures (for example).
---
"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud
From: TisRiley | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:06:06 AM | Message Detail
IMO Frog overperformed, he would still beat Liquid but lose to Master Chief
---
Spring2005: 32/36/96 - Tied for #351
Today: Sephiroth Tomorrow: Diablo
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:07:25 AM | Message Detail
The thing is, if we were to drop Liquid/MC/Frog down to Knuckles' level, Crash would have an ungodly huge fall.

This contest makes no sense.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:08:52 AM | Message Detail
I seriously dont think you can translate this contest's stats over to the Summer contest.
---
"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:09:30 AM | Message Detail
It's good that it doesn't make sense. If voting could be broken down to a purely statistical level it'd be boring.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:10:33 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I agree. If only CJayC played his cards right, we could have an amazingly evil bracket this summer.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:28:02 AM | Message Detail
...or if CJayC would let us deal him the cards...

...too bad that won't happen.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:30:53 AM | Message Detail
I wished that Liquid would get the second spot in the X stats, to bad it won't happen.
---
Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:32:02 AM | Message Detail
It might just be me, but it seems like the vote-totals are absolutely soaring today. Not surprised, really, but it looks like we may be high in the totals today.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:34:19 AM | Message Detail
Ugh, I hate this Emoroth picture. I suppose it fits him, though.

This contest has lost all credibility. I was hoping to see someone avoid getting doubled by Sephiroth, at least.
---
Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:35:44 AM | Message Detail
There's still Bowser and Ganon in his way; SOMEBODY'll avoid the doubling, surely.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:37:40 AM | Message Detail
One thing I've noticed so far is that Seph's matches in this Contest so far have always landed on the weekend.

Seph/Ramirez = Saturday
Seph/Vergil = Sunday
Seph/Liquid = Saturday

So does this mean that Seph + Weekend = Huge vote totals? Or does the day of the week not matter in Seph's case?
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:38:02 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, Dabu! You'll also be happy to know that I just won two games in Starcraft with some pretty good distraction methods. Make your opponent think one thing, then blast them to hell with something else.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:38:13 AM | Message Detail
Surprised to see only 4 perfects remaining(actually 3) with just 1 questionable match remaining...
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not smurf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:40:20 AM | Message Detail
Here's to hoping the three "real" perfects get wiped out with Kefka/Diablo...

...then the perfect with Ganondorf finishes perfect.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:40:52 AM | Message Detail
I woke up... and almost as a joke clicked on contest stats. When I saw that 2 perfects had fallen, I laughed so hard I orgasmed all over my monitor.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:41:46 AM | Message Detail
I want all the perfect to fall, simply because I want either Lucid or yoblazer to win.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:43:31 AM | Message Detail
I'd pay to see LordAceron win.
---
not smurf
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:43:37 AM | Message Detail
I think Frog/MC and L. Snake are all overrated by the stats, but do you think FFVII has a way of overperforming against Metal Gear Solid much like Zelda overperforms against Mega Man?

---
Feel the pain… of those inferior beings… as you burn in hell! ~ Kratos Aurion
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:43:52 AM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1355

Even if I want Liquid to still be stronger than Bowser, I don't think it will happen. Oh and Bowser>Ganondorf, just you wait.
---
Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:47:25 AM | Message Detail
If Mega Man didn't need adjusting against Link afterall (which, after today, looks even more possible...props Chichiri), then the idea of LoZ having the ability to SFF Mega Man is essentially thrown out of the window.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/28/2005 8:58:12 AM | Message Detail
I'm off to work now...but does anybody think Liquid will prevent the complete tripling today?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:03:09 AM | Message Detail
Ouch, Liquid's pride. With this result I think we might be better off assuming 2k3 Sephiroth is similar to the Seph we're seeing here, and that there's a distinct possibility that Cloud managed to SFF Seph in 2k4 when he couldn't the year before.
---
If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:05:10 AM | Message Detail
I want all the perfects to fall to Ulti.. but that's more of just not wanting to see a perfect just yet. On top of that I would love it if yo won this whole damn thing.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:05:50 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Sephiroth is just annihilating Liquid. Any chance Bowser or Ganondorf had of upsetting Sephiroth just went right out the window (not that there was much of a chance to begin with, but still).
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:06:32 AM | Message Detail
Incidentally, the bottom of the standings now looks like this:

Giygas [Ganondorf] 10.29
Pyramid Head [Bowser] 9.98
Officer Tenpenny [Sephiroth] 9.91
Giygas [CATS] 8.43

So there's a pretty good chance that OT could be the weakest character in the contest.
---
If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:09:32 AM | Message Detail
um...how exactly did Giygas get two values based on Ganon and CATS?
---
O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 5/28/2005 9:10:24 AM | Message Detail
lol rpguy

---
Explicit Content, having fun, being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
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