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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 133
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:22:53 PM | Message Detail
Uh oh, we know what the Bat-Cloud pic means!

*thinks back to Cloud/Sonic*
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:24:20 PM | Message Detail
Bleh, stoner Sehpy.

Well, looks like we got another 70-30 MGS blowout.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:24:47 PM | Message Detail
Meh, you can't even see the entire Bat-Cloud sprite in any one place.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:26:37 PM | Message Detail
I think Terra being in the background could really help Kefka out.
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"Yeah... I'm a piece of work, ain't I?!" - Bowser
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:27:41 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, especially if it's the Terra win pose with her hands raised.

16-bit teaser = Instant win
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:28:41 PM | Message Detail
Oh, while I'm thinking of it...fun fact time: Raiden is the only MGS character that has never made the Elite Eight in a contest here, Solid is the only MGS character who has made the Elite Eight more than once (three times), and there has not been a MGS character who has made the Final Four yet.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:28:50 PM | Message Detail
I gotta admit that I'm a bit confused at Ceej's pic theme for this round. So, it's the same as Round 1...but with a few obscured sprites in the background?

I was expecting the usual "epic battle" theme.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:29:58 PM | Message Detail
Terra's not guaranteed to be in his background...though a dollar still says she is. Does anybody have a guess who will be in Diablo's background?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:30:59 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake is one of the few characters to reach at least the Elite Eight in all 3 contests (Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man cannot make such a claim). Heck, the Spring Contest last year was the only time ANYTHING Metal Gear didn't reach the Elite Eight.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:31:05 PM | Message Detail
I'm guessing Diablo's sprite will be in the background of his pic.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:32:01 PM | Message Detail
Terra's not guaranteed to be in his background...though a dollar still says she is.

If Ceej's Favorite FF Hero poll is any indication (which had Terra as the FFVI representative), it's all but a lock that she will be. Celes is the ONLY other alternative.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:33:32 PM | Message Detail
The Kefka/Diablo pic should have Shadow sprites in the background with Shadow's theme playing just to make sure it is the coolest picture ever.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:33:38 PM | Message Detail
Heh, and Solid Snake is the only character who has always lost in the Elite Eight as well. He's got that curse about him.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:34:07 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I'm guessing the "epic battle" pictures will be reserved for the Final Four this year instead of having alternating pictures of one character owning the other.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:35:07 PM | Message Detail
::Remembers Cloud/Samus pics with Samus having the picture advantage in both pictures::
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:36:04 PM | Message Detail
I just realized that Kefka is going to have TJF against Diablo.

We have a whole new ballgame on our hands, folks.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:41:03 PM | Message Detail
Oh man, imagine the TJF if it had been Kefka/Albedo-or-Ridley instead. Heh.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:46:09 PM | Message Detail
Also, other Final Four notes of interest:

Bowser becomes the first Mario character to make the Final Four since 2002. That just doesn't seem right.

Sephiroth continues the tradition of having at least one FFVII representative in the Final Four in every contest, as does Ganondorf with LoZ.

With his win over Robotnik, Ganondorf will have more wins in this contest than in his other two appearances combined. With a win in the Final Four, he doubles that total.

If Kefka wins, he becomes the first Final Fantasy representative NOT from VII of any kind in the Final Four. If Diablo wins, he becomes the first PC representative of any kind in the Final Four. Obviously, he's not the first PC representative in the Elite Eight.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:47:01 PM | Message Detail
Er...Scratch that one note about LoZ having representation in the Final Four in every contest. There weren't any LoZ games in the Final Four last Spring.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:58:49 PM | Message Detail
Jenova Division: Round 3 - Match 26 – (1)Sephiroth vs. (2)Liquid Snake
Sephiroth only loses to people with huge swords and elf hats.

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 – vs. Ramirez (Sephiroth: 83.70% - Ramirez: 16.30%)
Round 2 – vs. Vergil (Sephiroth: 78.81% - Vergil: 21.19%)

Vergil is no challenge for Seph.

Liquid Snake
Round 1 – vs. Tenpenny (Liquid: 79.46% - Tenpenny: 20.54%)
Round 2 – vs. Lavos (Liquid: 55.62% - Lavos: 44.38%)

Lavos ends up looking more impressive than most people expected.

Ok, something is seriously wrong here. According to 2004, Liquid = Frog = MC, and they’re all right under Solid, but if that’s true, do you know how high Lavos and Mother Brain rank now? I’ll let you figure that out by yourself, mostly because I’m too lazy to do that.

So were Liquid’s 2004 numbers, actually inflated thanks to Frog? Does this also affect Chief, Frog and Solid? Who knows, but hopefully some of those questions will be answered when Sephiroth faces Liquid Snake. Sephiroth is pretty stable, so we should be able to get some answers. Liquid is projected to get 35.29% on Sephiroth, so I wonder how he’ll do compared to that.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sephiroth will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sephiroth 68% - Liquid 32%



Ulti’s Analysis

Why am I wasting time thinking about this? There's no point. I'm just sort of rooting for Liquid to break 30% in the match. It probably won't happen, but a guy can dream.

Prediction: Sephy with 68.88%



Soul’s Analysis

As I said earlier in my analysis', Liquid Snake received the worst placement in this contest. A strong competitor is forced to play fodder to Sephiroth in third round.

Liquid came off a somewhat disappointing win over Lavos. His match was filled with controversy. Is Liquid too high on the X-Stats? Was Lavos really that strong? Was Mother Brain stronger then Ridley, or is Diablo a really strong character in this contest? All this and many more were asked because of his match.

Sephiroth, on the other hand, came off another blowout victory over Vergil. But, surprisingly, Vergil broke 21%, which is a plus for some of his fans.

The match will be just another Sephiroth match, really. Sephy wins with 64.62%.



Outback’s Analysis

Worst. Match Pic. Ever.

Yawn, it's Sephiroth. The only thing this match does is tell us where Lavos/Mother Brain stand as well as if Liquid fell or remained constant.

Sephiroth 73.37 Liquid 26.63



Inviso’s Analysis

Well, Sephiroth, thank God, will be beating Bowser into the ground next round. Liquid just…won’t cut it I think. Sephiroth stayed strong in the second round, as he beat up Vergil like a nerdy kid in gym class. Lavos, no matter how great Chrono Trigger is, is not that great a villain, or character. He’s like Master Hand, only weaker, as he showed, struggling with Mother Brain. And yet, he managed to keep Liquid Snake fewer than 60% in his match. How is that even possible?

Well, at least I like both character in this match, hence, I won’t be pissed off at the outcome. FUFUFUFUFUFUFUFUFUFUFU >_> PIRATE RACCOON AWAY! *flies off*

My Prediction: Sephiroth with 69.22%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:07:05 PM | Message Detail
I think I like inviso's % best on that one.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:08:53 PM | Message Detail
God, another bad pic for Liquid Snake. CJayC couldn't help him once. ONCE.
Well, like the pic was so important, and specially in a match like this :P
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RPG/Square character /= instant win. Robotnik has proved such and owned my ass.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:09:08 PM | Message Detail
I think between Soul and Moltar looks right to me...closer to Moltar.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:10:38 PM | Message Detail
I think Ulti's percentage sounds good to me.
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RPG/Square character /= instant win. Robotnik has proved such and owned my ass.
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:13:06 PM | Message Detail
Terra's not guaranteed to be in his background...though a dollar still says she is. Does anybody have a guess who will be in Diablo's background?

Assuming that the background theme is the first opponents the villains had, Diablo would have either the Warrior from Diablo 1, Tyriel, or Deckard Cain.
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Two turtle-like fighters make their debuts in Middle... Will either Blastoise or Cagnazzo manage to win? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:15:29 PM | Message Detail
Kefka might get all the characters as a background...

>_>

plz CjayC, give him that!
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:16:45 PM | Message Detail
He’s like Master Hand, only weaker, as he showed, struggling with Mother Brain.

Inviso always says something in her analyses that makes me do a double take.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:17:01 PM | Message Detail
Well, I think actually think it'll fall between Moltar and Ulti, I just think I like Inviso's % better because it gives room for some (unlikely) Seph/Cloud SFF.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:25:16 PM | Message Detail
I think she wrote that before Robotnik/MH.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:25:55 PM | Message Detail
Even so, that's still just...
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:26:53 PM | Message Detail
I'd bet that Diablo gets either the Warrior (DI) or Barbarian (DII) in his background, depending on which game Ceejus likes more. They both represent the semi-generic physical-attack based fighter class that is in practically every RPG, which form the basis of most parties (depending on the player), except in unusual situations such as dungeons where you cannot use physical attacks (that magnetic cave in FFIV or the Fanatics Tower in FFVI), and boy am I droning on like Tom Clancy, and speaking of Tom Clancy, Rainbow Six is *gets shot*
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:54:53 PM | Message Detail
We had to see this stupid Sephiroth pic against Vivi, why more of it? Seph doesn't even look like he wants to be there.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:56:45 PM | Message Detail
Blah atleast Sephiroh looks semi cool in his picture. Liquid looks like pure and utter crap like he has in every single picture. I wish Cjay could give the dude a good picture for once.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:59:30 PM | Message Detail
If Master Hand made it to the top 8, what hero character(s) would he have gotten? Ganondorf will get link, obviously, but would MH have gotten an assortment of SSBM characters?
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HRC total: 77592.6
Vote for Kefka? >_>;;
From: goku z | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:15:24 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, I hope CJayC takes out the champions for the next contest after all. I know this has been said a hundred times, but it is simply the truth; Link will not be touched now with Twilight Princess being so hyped up.

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PS3 will be first place. Domination. Xbox 360 will be 2nd in sales...but still, huge losses for M$. Revolution will be 3rd. Still; big profits for Nintendo.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:43:30 PM | Message Detail
MH would've probably either gotten Game & Watch or something resembling SSBM's pic against FFX.

Though come to think of it... Ganondorf is one of the most effective characters for killing MH. Maybe we could've seen one big ugly Ganon against several small ones in the background >_>
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And how many points do you have, again? - fedor
And how many contests have you won, again? - UltimaterializerX
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:44:42 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:45:43 PM | Message Detail
You DO remember how close it came to possibly winning Division 128, right?

Wind Waker had no chance of winning a division with SSBM in it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: outback | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:46:10 PM | Message Detail
I'm trying to place Albedo on the XStats. Terry Bogard vs. Albedo? Luca vs. Albedo? I'm tempted to go against Albedo for both. Maybe put him at 12.20 (Between CATS and EW Jim)?
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IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER! (TEAM ??????)
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:48:09 PM | Message Detail
Inviso has a tendency to make horrible writeups and good predictions.

All these ideas being bandied about are terribly inconsistent.

They're only inconsistent if you're obsessed with math and use it to back up every argument you make, which, to no surprise whatsoever, is what the detractors of that post have all done. My whole argument is that every poll has a life of its own and that transitivity barely exists, but some people refuse to think this way for whatever reason.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: outback | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:16:19 PM | Message Detail
OK, I put Albedo at 12.50, which is between Terry and Luca. These are some of the stats I got.


M. Bison: 19.80 on Link (Between Jill and V. Joe)
Diablo: 21.01 on Link (Between Kefka and Bomberman), 49.53 on Kefka
Ridley: 17.80 on Link (Between Protoman and Crash)

Also, with Ocelot at 33.19 on Bowser (assuming constant Bowser)

Ocelot: 19.17 on Link (Between Scorpion and Ness)
Wily: 17.44 on Link (Between Crash and Jak)
Ultros: 12.55 on Link (Between Terry and Luca)
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IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER! (TEAM ??????)
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:23:14 PM | Message Detail
All I know is that Kuja better >>> Ultros in the XStats, or else I may have to migrate towards some very sharp objects...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:30:32 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:37:11 PM | Message Detail
I used math all of twice in my rather long post. And if matches have no transitivity then the XS are worthless and Magus is the strongest character (as I proved using the "logic" that's floating around which is oh so superior to those silly little numbers) so why are we even arguing? Why have a contest stats and discussion when there are no stats and every piece of discussion consists of coming up with a new factor?
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If you go to him, he will destroy you. And your last moments will be of shadow and pain.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:42:42 PM | Message Detail
I'd like to say a few words about something I saw a page back, where people were trying to compare strengths of Link in different years.

Without even getting into how pointless of a topic that is, what evidence does anyone have to suggest that '02 Link is stronger than '03 Link, or vice versa? We never saw '03 Link go up against an '02 character, did we? Just drop it already. >_>

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"Lucid Faia" Score: 31, Rank: T2, Pick: Bowser
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:44:18 PM | Message Detail
We never saw '03 Link go up against an '02 character, did we?

Fox, Samus and Cloud.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:45:42 PM | Message Detail
Wind Waker had no chance of winning a division with SSBM in it

Wind Waker would not have won, but it would've been close. People obviously do not despise that game as much as some of you think.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:45:42 PM | Message Detail
Fox, Samus and Cloud.

You're saying that Link from 2003 went back to the year 2002 to face those characters from that specific year?

You misunderstood my post.

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"Lucid Faia" Score: 31, Rank: T2, Pick: Bowser
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:46:15 PM | Message Detail
People obviously do not despise that game as much as some of you think.

SFF would have taken care of that.

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"Lucid Faia" Score: 31, Rank: T2, Pick: Bowser
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 11:47:10 PM | Message Detail
What SFF?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
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