Actually I agree with you Chichi; I've felt that Magus' fourpack was suspicious for a while, but no one has paid attention because I'm too stupid to do the math. =p
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Well, I've been saying the fourpack was wrong since sc2k4 finished up, I went and did the math to show that Ganon was wrong weeks ago. I've been trying to get up in people's faces telling them the Ganon is wrong for the last few days.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

O_o

I seem to remember that that 4-pack being wrong has been regarded as a fact for a very long time now.

;_;
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi

It has?
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

A ton of people still don't consider it anything remotely resembling fact. That's why I've been arguing my point so much, that's why HM is willing to bet ANYTHING that you can bet over the boards that Dante wouldn't score 45% on Ganon. People just don't think there was anything wrong with that 4-pack.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

I predict Dante would score 44.99% on Ganondorf.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

Oh.

O.o
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi

Protoman is arbitrarily adjusted.

Protoman is not adjusted directly at all. Mega Man is, and Protoman through him. That's a relatively small 11% adjustment though; when people talk about Protoman SFF, they will tend to mean in the 50%+ range.
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www.SC2K5.com

Bah, I looked at Protoman's unadjusted value, not his 20XX one. Either way, Jak is unadjusted for in your stats, which I'm assuming NewLib was looking at.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

so bowser is making another pounding. huh
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

Dammit... you think a Kefka > Diablo or a Diablo > Kefka could knock out all the perfects left?

I sure as hell don't, but I can hope.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

The thing with Magus is that it assumes Magus overperformed againist Link. The only thing that seems to not make since to me, if Magus overperformed againist Link it would be sensible to think he also overperformed (by a smaller amount) againist GDorf.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

It assumes that Magus over performed on Link or that Ganon over performed on Magus (or both). Magus is still a big ??? right now.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

The heart of the problem is still that CJay thought it be cute for Gannon, Bowser, and Magus to be SFFd to death in the second round.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

O_o

First time anyone has had to bump this in a long time ;_;
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi

I'm with ya Chichiri. If nothing else but for the "series of close matches" factor. Tidus, Ganondorf and Magus were all overrated in 2k3, and I'm sure that Frog, Master Chief, and Liquid are all overrated in 2k4. We'll get a good idea for sure tomorrow and in the finals.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

2004 Link > 2002 Link > 2003 Link

Throw all the numbers at me you want, but you can't tell me that 2003 Link is equal to 2002 Link. I maintain that the Wind Waker pic handicapped him throughout that contest, that Cloud's actual strength has been virtually equal all three years, and that KHF benefited Sephiroth and Squall more than anyone else. My reasoning for Cloud being relatively even through all three years is that the 2002 stats on him are screwed up; if you adjust Cloud's position in those stats to accomodate a 53-47 victory over Mario (possibly even 55-45), he'd be about where he belongs.

Oh, and I also think that the only Sephiroth anomaly is his match against Cloud in 2003. That match happened two days after the Link/Cloud fiasco, and there was a ton of anti-Cloud sentiment from the Link fanbase. 2002 and 2004 Sephiroth is the true Sephiroth, and I feel that the 2003 stats overestimate him by quite a bunch. I'm aware that this would cause people to jump on the "OMG but Mario and Mega Man's positions would suffer" bandwagon, to which I give the standard "every poll has a life of its own and nothing is transitive" response. It's more than possible that Sephy's matches against Mario and Mega were normal, and that his match against Cloud was a vast overperformance. His matches against 2002 Link and 2004 Cloud suggest where he should truly be, not 2003.

It's possible that you can adjust one character without moving everyone related to them. Try it sometime. Trust me, it'll make you feel... special.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I'd have to say that despite the fact that 2003 stats seem to fall into place the best, they're also the ones with the most anomalies compared to other contest. Possible due in fact to the much higher vote totals we got that year. But that contest was clearly the black sheep....
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

I've always thought the Wind Waker pictures weakened Link. Believing otherwise has always felt somewhat folly.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I agree with what Ulti said.
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"The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children."- Ken Kutaragi

This is why I enjoy not caring about extrapolated stats.

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"Lucid Faia" Score: 31, Rank: T2, Pick: Bowser
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I've been saying what Ultimaterializer and ChichiriMuyo are saying for well over a year now, minus Chichiri's numerical backing, but everything I said was immediately disregarded. That was back in the days that everyone insisted that Magus would beat Sonic.

Hell, everytime I bring up Wind Waker Link up in 2k3, Leonhart is ALWAYS there to refute me. -_- But yeah, I guess everyone is changing their minds now because it's the "hip" thing to do.... I gave up on trying to convince others.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

This is why I enjoy not caring about extrapolated stats.

I think all this recent talk is great, personally. Opens my mind up a little bit...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Once Ulti says something, everyone who opposes the idea suddenly flocks to his side.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

But yeah, I guess everyone is changing their minds now because it's the "hip" thing to do....

I honestly figured everyone thought the same. Put up a poll between OoT Link and WW Link and be amazed as the "cartoony" version struggles to avoid a tripling.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I honestly figured everyone thought the same. Put up a poll between OoT Link and WW Link and be amazed as the "cartoony" version struggles to avoid a tripling.

You could probably say the same of Mario with and without a water pack, 8-bit Mario vs 128-bit Mario, and any number of other matchups.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

If Chichiri's theory is true, that means Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Knuckles, Bomberman, and Pac-Man had to all drop a huge amount, among others (I'm too lazy to list them all). Remember that most of the West Division would drop in popularity, as well. Yet, if you think Link still DROPPED from 2K2 to 2K3 more than a miniscule amount on top of that you have no idea what you're talking about.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Or maybe Link could've dropped and the anomalies are the result of the X-Stats not being 100% effective.

*has no idea what he's arguing against*
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

Link could've dropped, but at the very MOST he would've dropped 2%.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"If Chichiri's theory is true, that means Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Knuckles, Bomberman, and Pac-Man had to all drop a huge amount, among others (I'm too lazy to list them all)."

Wait, when? From 2k3 to 2k4 all of those characters gained except SS and Pac according to my adjustments.

From 2k2 to 2k3, well here, let me tell you something... looking at this: http://www.sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php and seeing thta Crono, Mario, and Snake all gained about the same amount from 2k2 to 2k3 makes me think everything is a-okay. Knux only drops slightly more than we thought he did anyway (and no, I have no idea why he dropped in the first place), Kefka was SFF'd taking Pac down, and like Knux but more extreme Bomberman took a drop with or without my adjustments.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Wait, when? From 2k3 to 2k4 all of those characters gained except SS and Pac according to my adjustments.

Sorry, I meant from 2K2 to 2K3.

From 2k2 to 2k3, well here, let me tell you something... looking at this: http://www.sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php and seeing thta Crono, Mario, and Snake all gained about the same amount from 2k2 to 2k3 makes me think everything is a-okay....

Since your Sephiroth of 2K3 is much weaker than the Sephiroth used by the 2K3 extrapolated standings this can't apply to your rankings. Most of the characters in the bottom half of 2K3 have fallen significantly from 2K2 according to your 2K3 rankings.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"Since your Sephiroth of 2K3 is much weaker than the Sephiroth used by the 2K3 extrapolated standings this can't apply to your rankings."

He's about 4% weaker on 2k3 Link. That's not exactly a huge deal, especially since it means less the further you get away from the top. Oh, and we ARE making theassumption thta 2k2 Link = 2k3 to say for sure if they dropped or not. If you haven't noticed, not everybody is convinced that's the case (I personally think the 2k2 stats should be ignored in most cases, at this point, as it adds too many numbers that had too many variables working agaisnt their accuracy)
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

And, here's your "huge drop" for "my" solid snake from 2k2 to 2k3 assuming a static Link *drum rolls*
.
.
.
.
.
.
-.88%!!!!!!

Yeah, huge drop...
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Throw all the numbers at me you want, but you can't tell me that 2003 Link is equal to 2002 Link.

I can, and can also state that if you choose to dispute this, your belief is misguided. There should be no doubt in your own mind that the statement "Link 2K2 > Link 2K3" has little to support it.

I maintain that the Wind Waker pic handicapped him

If so, then his "innate" strength was greater than 2K2. His actual performance was, from all indications, not significantly different.

Cloud's actual strength has been virtually equal all three years

This is a rather outlandish statement, and unsupportable; see below.

if you adjust Cloud's position in those stats to accomodate a 53-47 victory over Mario (possibly even 55-45), he'd be about where he belongs

53% seems reasonable; 55% is a stretch. And even that doesn't place him close to "where he belongs".

Especially if you somehow tie this in with the idea that Sephiroth overperformed in the 2K3 finals (say, from 42% to 48%), in which case Cloud 2K2 performing "where he belongs" against Mario would give him about 68% against Mario. He couldn't possibly go from that being "normal", to losing to Mario.

All these ideas being bandied about are terribly inconsistent.
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www.SC2K5.com

Tomorrow should be interesting, as depending on your assumptions, Sephiroth could get anywhere from 65%-75%. I would guess 70+% myself.

It won't necessarily tell us anything definitive though, as the various assumptions alter the strengths of both characters.
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www.SC2K5.com

I certainly think that Link's Wind Waker pics hindered him a fair bit.

I don't know why people say that pictures don't matter, anyway. If Link was in a match and got a picture of Mario where he should've been, he'd perform differently. You'd have to be a complete idiot to claim otherwise.

Aside from that, there are many people out there who just vote for whoever looks cooler.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I think the consensus is that pics can make a difference, but that is is small for "universally" known characters; and becomes more important the more obscure one is.
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www.SC2K5.com

Throw all the numbers at me you want, but you can't tell me that 2003 Link is equal to 2002 Link

*prepares to throw numbers at you*

I maintain that the Wind Waker pic handicapped him throughout that contest,

Go on.

that Cloud's actual strength has been virtually equal all three years,

So he should have gotten approximately 62% on Mario instead of losing to him in 2k2? Or, as cn said, if Sephiroth overperformed he would have neared 70%?

and that KHF benefited Sephiroth and Squall more than anyone else.

Yeah, that optional difficult boss would surely get much more of a boost than the character that you are forced to interact with! Leon's a given, though.

my reasoning for Cloud being relatively even through all three years is that the 2002 stats on him are screwed up;

Well, we've known this for quite some time. The tricky part is adjusting it; so tricky that we'll probably never have a satisfactory answer

if you adjust Cloud's position in those stats to accomodate a 53-47 victory over Mario (possibly even 55-45), he'd be about where he belongs.

No, he wouldn't. He'd be a good 6-8% short on 2k2 Link, which is not constant by any means.

Oh, and I also think that the only Sephiroth anomaly is his match against Cloud in 2003. That match happened two days after the Link/Cloud fiasco, and there was a ton of anti-Cloud sentiment from the Link fanbase.

It's quite clear that the majority of the visitors on GameFAQs are fond of both Link and Cloud, and it's unreasonable to think that there would be a backlash from one of them losing. If the camps were fiercly divided as you say than there's no way Link or Cloud could get the 85%+ they ususally get in the first round (or two).

2002 and 2004 Sephiroth is the true Sephiroth, and I feel that the 2003 stats overestimate him by quite a bunch.

Uh, didn't you just say that you thought that KHF helped Sephiroth quite a bit? That should mean postKH Seph (2k4) should be a good deal stronger than preKH Seph (2k2). Incidentally, what happened to every other character in the West Division if that was Seph's true strength AND it was a stronger Link than we saw in 2k3?

I'm aware that this would cause people to jump on the "OMG but Mario and Mega Man's positions would suffer" bandwagon, to which I give the standard "every poll has a life of its own and nothing is transitive" response. It's more than possible that Sephy's matches against Mario and Mega were normal, and that his match against Cloud was a vast overperformance. His matches against 2002 Link and 2004 Cloud suggest where he should truly be, not 2003.

If Seph overperformed on Cloud as you say and his matches with Mario and Mega Man are legit, then OMG Mario, Crono and Mega Man take huge dives. Unless you think Sephiroth overperformed on them, too, in which case he's overperforming on damn near everyone and it sure as hell sounds like his true strength. I've also already addressed your self-contradiction about Sephiroth.

It's possible that you can adjust one character without moving everyone related to them. Try it sometime. Trust me, it'll make you feel... special.

Magus underperformed on Link and should have beat him. He's really the strongest character in the contest. Ganondorf and Tidus? Oh, don't worry about them. Every poll has a life of it's own, after all. Plus there's the "close match factor" and the "Nintendo vs Square factor" that happen to support whatever it is that I'm trying to prove at the moment. Crono? He got rSFF, just like Sephiroth did in 2k3 against Cloud. Luca Blight? It's normal for fodder to have huge random fluctuations for absolutely no reason.
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I like traffic lights!

I think the consensus is that pics can make a difference, but that is is small for "universally" known characters; and becomes more important the more obscure one is.

I agree with that. After all, as long as characters are recognizable, the vast majority of voters will prefer one character over another by a large enough margin that a pic couldn't possibly influence their vote. I'm afraid it's not the consensus, though.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'm still waiting to see what the proof is saying that 2k2 Link = 2k3 Link. Who is that information based on? Samus? Squall? Tidus??
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I believe that cn bases it on the whole field, of course if Seph did overperform then more than half the field is wrong so that'd have to be adjusted.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

I always thought Aeris would give aa decent fight for any Noble-niner as she did for Sonic (unless it was Cloud).

She doesn't do well against Sephiroth either, I hear. Ahem.

I think the consensus is that pics can make a difference, but that is is small for "universally" known characters; and becomes more important the more obscure one is.

Well said.


As for the Link 2k2 > Link 2k3 debate...if it's true, then it's only barely true. Until further reason to believe it, methinks they're essentially equal.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Oh, and dayum; Revolver is gettin' stomped.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

"She doesn't do well against Sephiroth either, I hear. Ahem."

I'm not too sure about that, Sephiroth honestly looks to have not SFF'd Vivi at all.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Wasn't talking about the stats, Chichiri.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

It puzzles me that people still think Wind Waker pictures hindered Link. Nothing he did in 2003 indicates this (other than MAYBE his match against Cloud, but I still don't buy that). The ONLY possibility for a Link underperformance in 2003 was against Magus. And guess what? That was the LoZ sprite, not Wind Waker Link.

People talk about the Wind Waker as if everyone hates it. You DO remember how close it came to possibly winning Division 128, right? Or does that conveniently get forgotten? To the person who said that OoT Link would whip WW Link: So what? OoT Link would destroy LoZ sprite Link by even more. All it's saying is which design they prefer. It says that they like the OoT design better, not that they hate the WW design. And for somebody to hate the Wind Waker design, Link still didn't do too shabby getting 70K votes in a loss (more than he got beating Cloud in 2004, FYI).

Pictures matter when people don't know one or both of the characters in the match. I'm surprised that people haven't tried to blame the Shadow "overperformance" on Mario in 2003 on FLUDD.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I blame Shadow's "overperformance" on Mario in 2003 on FLUDD...

...oh, wait, I'm still not buying Shadow over-performing. Carry on.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr05/b26.jpg

Ewww....
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)

That's not a bad picture of Liquid. I've never been a big fan of that Sephy picture though. Besides, his head's too big. He's getting in the way of all the Bat-Clouds.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Sleepy Sephiroth VS Coon-Hat Liquid.

...so maybe it's just me, but it looks like Liquid's got a raccoon-cap.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman