Oh yeah, and guess who he's close to by that mark? Bowser.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

So, here they are, since people seem to not know they exist (looks at slow and char)

2k3 adjustments based on 2k4 Seph (all % are against 2k4 Link):

Sephiroth - 42.4 (+0.00)
Mega Man - 32.92 (-0.53)
Mario - 32.56 (+2.21)
Crono - 32.53 (+4.65)
Solid Snake - 30.62 (-2.88)
Shadow - 29.24 (-6.79)
Ryu - 26.17 (+3.67)
Zelda - 25.84 (N/A)
Dante - 24.07 (+1.42)
Knuckles - 23.8 (+1.36)
Alucard - 23.51 (+4.23*)
Kirby - 22.47 (-1.85)
Tommy - 21.83 (+0.08)
DK - 21.63 (+0.33)
Yuna - 21.27 (N/A)
Wario - 20.53 (N/A)
Lara - 19.49 (-5.58)
Ramza - 19.03 (N/A)
Bomberman - 16.71 (+0.55)
Vyse - 16.26 (+1.66)
Duke Nukem - 15.74 (+3.35)
Raziel - 15.26 (N/A**)
Kite - 15.18 (N/A)
Max Payne - 14.7 (+1.85)
Kekfa - 13.72 (+5.37)
Gordon - 13.53 (-0.13)
Pac-Man - 13.46 (-2.73)
Ryo - 10.76 (-2.14)
Raiden - 10.48 (N/A)
Tom Nook - 9.23 (N/A)
Olimar - 7.54 (N/A)
Resetti - 7.27 (N/A)

*Assuming a constant Ganon
** -0.68 assuming Kain = Raziel.

Assuming static Alucard
Magus - 27.60
Ganon - 27.43 (go ahead and extrapolate him through CATS and see what you get)
Tidus - 27.06
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

who would you pick between Ness and Wily?

Ness, without question.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Would you like to make a bet regarding this? I'd be willing to bet they'd be closer to 55-45 then whatever the XSt currently have them at.

If that match ever happens I will bet you the largest thing I can bet on a GameFAQs message board. I could careless about whatever stats have been brought up to even give hint to how Dante would have a chance at beating Ganon. It isn't hard to use some damn common sense every now and then. Good Lord.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Common sense doesn't always work.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Bowser is doing one hell of a job with the day vote. When I went to sleep he had about 62% on Ocelot, now he's looking at getting 66% relatively early. That plays along with my thought that Ocelot doesn't need a nomination to return - it'd be nominating someone like Bomberman.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Common sense doesn't always work.

Neither does stats. I don't give a flying **** what the hell they say, if anyone here is willing to even think about Dante over Ganon, they might as well be shot in the face while on their knees.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

That plays along with my thought that Ocelot doesn't need a nomination to return - it'd be nominating someone like Bomberman.

Or Vyse or Lloyd.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

The stats always give a good idea of the general area of strength. Of course they don't always work, but to say that somebody could beat the living crap out of another (without SFF, of course) when the stats clearly dictate otherwise probably won't work out too well for ya.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

"If that match ever happens I will bet you the largest thing I can bet on a GameFAQs message board."

Current Stats have Dante under 40, my stats have him just under 45. So you're willing to be that Dante won't break 42.% no matter what the stats say after this contest? God help me, I want that match to happen so badly now.

"It isn't hard to use some damn common sense every now and then."

Cold, hard truth beats out common sense all the time... and in this case it's not even common sense that says Ganon should do so well, it's old (and incorrect to begin with) stats.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Or Vyse or Lloyd.

Lloyd is most definitely ahead of Vyse and I have no doubts he's stronger than Ocelot after his unimpressive run in this contest. There's no way of telling how well Lloyd would do while there it would be just stupid to nominate Ocelot after he's already proven to be weak. Hell, it'd be like nominating Viewtiful Joe again. I haven't checked but Ocelot should be around based on how well he's doing right now.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Of course, that's all assuming Bowser hasn't increased in strength, and I said that I believe he did after his last match with Sigma.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Actually, HM, I said much closer than expected, not Dante over Ganon... though it could happen if Dante got a killer game.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Current Stats have Dante under 40, my stats have him just under 45. So you're willing to be that Dante won't break 42.% no matter what the stats say after this contest? God help me, I want that match to happen so badly now.

So do I. That way I don't have to deal with people like yourself thinking that Dante could give as close a match as 55-45. Assuming that Dante never increased from DMC3 to begin with.

Cold, hard truth beats out common sense all the time... and in this case it's not even common sense that says Ganon should do so well, it's old (and incorrect to begin with) stats.

And your stats are correct? Please. That's exactly what we thought before and when something went wrong, everyone started figuring out ways to make them look right. And, heaven forbid, if something disagrees with what you've come up with we'll no doubt be seeing another variation that is "correct." At that, I saw your reasoning for why Magus overperformed and I could not disagree more. Square vs. Nintendo does not mean there will be an overperformance, just like in any other match. That 27.XX% for Magus is based on a 2003 Link or a 2004? Because God help you if you believe that's what Magus should have gotten on a 2003 Link.

---
“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

though it could happen if Dante got a killer game.

Ah, right, like DMC3? By all means, take Dante over Ganon.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

We arent going to be able to figure anything out of these stats until Sephiroth vs Gannondorf, because Kefka stats are always strange and thus he will affect everyone else in that division.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

Yeah how big is this overperformance by Magus exactly? I would think Sephiroth had a lot more room to overperform againist Cloud than Magus did againist Link.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Lloyd over Ocelot...I don't know about that. I wouldn't mind seeing a Lloyd/Ness match in the summer...that could be pretty interesting.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

The whole ordeal was that Ganon didn't perform nearly as well as he should have against Ansem. And when you get that through CATS, Ganon falls down by a good bit. I see no reason why in the world CATS could not have overperformed in this one particular match due to both bracket support for a change and the best picture he's had in the contest - this is a very distinct possibility. Instead, some people here immediately assumed that it was merely Ganon performing like he should have despite not taking into account something that is very clearly possible to have Ansem look weaker than he is. Or, here's one, Ansem being a Square character simply overperformed on Ganon due to the Square vs. Nintendo rivalry.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Well if Ocelot is equal to Bomberman, Lloyd vs Ocelot would probably be extremely close.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

All numbers are against 2k4 Link, as stated. Tidus and Magus are just guessing that their matches agianst Ganon were legit. Looking at Tidus' 2k4 ranking I doubt that's the case for either of them, they're just listed for the sake of my ability to extrapolate with them (well, mostly Magus). They do say that MM and Vercetti are perfect without any SFF adjustments, btw, and they say that Samus' performance was what it should be (through Gordon) meaning that Magus had to have done something to screw up Sam Fisher (since I can't see him droping in strength with a new game).
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Or, here's one, Ansem being a Square character simply overperformed on Ganon due to the Square vs. Nintendo rivalry.

Which is just like Magus overperforming on Link, but something tells me that Ansem doesn't have quite as much Square love as good ol' Magus.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

Lloyd over Ocelot...I don't know about that.

I'm pretty confident seeing how low Ocelot ranks. Before it didn't cross my mind as a big possibility, but now it is a very good one. I've always put Lloyd around KOS-MOS's level.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

*cough*sephoverperformedin2k3andi'vealreadydonealltheworktoshowit*cough*

What about Crono and Mario? They fell 5% from 2k2 to 2k3, only to gain all of it back (and then some for Crono) in 2k4? What about Ryu and Dante? What about Vyse and Duke Nukem? Kirby and Bomberman? Ryo Hazuki? Kefka's performance on Wesker?

There's just too many holes. It is an awful lot easier just to say that something went wrong in one match (Link/Mega Man) than in dozens.
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I like traffic lights!

Thats HM point, you cant say it happenend in one case and not in others just to fit your argument. How do you know Squall didnt overperform againist Kirby? Auron overperformed againist Ness?
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

"Ah, right, like DMC3? By all means, take Dante over Ganon."

No. DMC3 is a fairly good game in terms of keeping Dante up, maybe raising him a tad, but it's not what I'd call a killer and I certainly don't think it's enough to put him over Ganon. We're talking about first month sales that blow away the original game's total sales when I say killer.

"Yeah how big is this overperformance by Magus exactly?"

That's the only thing I can't judge for certain.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Thats HM point, you cant say it happenend in one case and not in others just to fit your argument.

...I would like to think that people would understand that I don't believe Ansem overperformed on Ganon. But if you're going to bring up one instance, you better damn well bring it up again.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

Oh, add Zero to that list.
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I like traffic lights!

How do you know Squall didnt overperform againist Kirby? Auron overperformed againist Ness?

Actually, I think it's quite possible that Kirby overperformed on Squall. Auron's numbers are still dicey because he hasn't lost to someone outside of his own company, but he should project higher than where he is on the extrapolateds, which would bring up Ness and Jak in turn.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

"What about Crono and Mario? They fell 5% from 2k2 to 2k3, only to gain all of it back (and then some for Crono) in 2k4?"

For the sake the sanity of all involved we're better off ignoring stastics that say Cloud should lose to Sonic, shouldn't we? 2k2 is all kinds of messed up, and I can't imagine a computer pwerful enough to give us an answer better than "42" if we asked it to fix the 2k2 stats.

"What about Ryu and Dante?"

What about them? Ryu had a new game, despite what most of you may have thought about it, and in fact at that time Capcom was blitzing us with SF2 aniversary goodness. Dante barely moves.

"What about Vyse and Duke Nukem?"

What about Vyse and Duke Nukem? I figure there's a fair chance Cloud slumped off a tad, even if he didn't we've always asumed Duke Milkem was the only real pic factor and that boost for Vyse falls in line with the same reasoning behind why most of us thought he'd win his first match. Even if you don't think he did better because contest goers knew him he suffers from the "the guy who beat me lost, the guy who beat him lost etc, etc" syndrome.

"Kirby and Bomberman?"

Bomberman only went up a tiny smidge. Big Whoop. Kirby hadn't had game in a year (and it was Air Ride).

"Kefka's performance on Wesker?"

Well, as char said if you adjust Magus to Tidus levels the match goes as expected. As I showed yesterday given the varience of fodder matches Luca still extrapolated adjusted Kefka correctly (very, very close, actually), and is within fair range of unadjusted Kefka (though not as close as I'd like). That's the hardest to explain part other than the 2k2 nonsense you brought up, and it's still within the range of what I'm putting out here.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Zero? He dropped like what, 3%? Oh, and he faced MM himself menaing there might be some SFF there, even if Vercetti is saying it's not likely/not much. Picture me with my index finger pointed up and my hand rotating in a circle here.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

Oh, I skipped Ryo. Been awhile since there was a new Shenmue, and he does well at looking worse every year anyway. He lost like 2%, chalk it up to him being fodderific or Yoshi getting slightly SFF'd by Link.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

So Crono, Mario, and Mega Man would have lost to or barely beaten Aeris and Zero in 2k3? Snake would lose Squall if that particular match had taken place a year later? Sonic is the 5th strongest character in the contest? Ryu goes from losing to Knuckles to beating Snake?

Forgive me if I don't buy it.
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I like traffic lights!

<Tag>
Well, things do change, some slowly while others abrupt.
</Tag>

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

"So Crono, Mario, and Mega Man would have lost to or barely beaten Aeris and Zero in 2k3?"

For MM just look at his match in 2k4 against Zero if you seek answers on him. As for Mario/Crono, well I'm not saying everything is perfect but I always thought Aeris would give aa decent fight for any Noble-niner as she did for Sonic (unless it was Cloud). I'd say they'd have done a little better than "barely beaten", though, since as I've stated twice now all those stats are based on 2k4 Link which means they still outrank Aeris safely.

Here, let me help all of you, since you can't read the part before the numbers: "(all % are against 2k4 Link):"
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

How strong should be Diablo in order to beat Kefka? I mean, which character must Diablo be over to at least beat Kefka..?
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*is meche*

If they are on 2k4 Link and you concede that this Link is stronger than 2k3 Link, then your numbers don't accurately predict what Mega Man, Vercetti, or good old Gordon would get on 2k3 Link, and then I ask you what is the point? If these numbers are on 2k4 Link and you're comparing them to the numbers on 2k3 Link and you say that 2k4 Link is considerably stronger, then isn't having Mega Man, Vercetti, and Gordon constant a bad thing?

And by "lost to or barely beaten" I mean 52/48 at worst, not 56/44 like Mega Man/Zero.
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I like traffic lights!

Diablo must be over... Kefka.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

So, to make sure we're absolutely clear about the whole 2k4 Link thing there, Aeris would around 30% and would put her between Snake and Frog in the adjusted stats or just barely ahead of Ryu in the unadjusted stats. That's just a basic estimation. In no way do I propose that Aeris beats Mario BECAUSE THE STATS I PRESENTED ARE ALL BASED ON 2K4 LINK FOR THOSE WHO DIDN'T READ IT THE FIRST TIME.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

How strong should be Diablo in order to beat Kefka? I mean, which character must Diablo be over to at least beat Kefka..?

From the 2004 adjusted stats, Diablo just needs to be on par with Tails or Donkey Kong in order to beat Kefka. But the Kefka/Wesker performance shows that Kefka could be stronger than that 21.21% value.

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“You see, at this point… I’m pretty much the Queen ***** of the Universe. And not all of your little soldiers or space ships will stand in my way again.”

in the stats I mean...c'mon don't be silly, you did understand me.
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*is meche*

Diablo can be over Tails or Donkey Kong...though I'd hate to accept that.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

okay, thanks. It's not that hard for Diablo to do so, I believe.
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*is meche*

"and then I ask you what is the point?"

To show that they got almsot exactly exactly what they were supposed to against 2k4 Link, duh. How's it hard to figure out that I'm trying to prove that MM wasn't SSF'd by Link in 2k4? How in the name of all that is can you miss that?

"and you're comparing them to the numbers on 2k3 Link"

I'm not. All of my numbers are against 2k4 Link. All of them. What part of that didn't you catch, exactly?

"And by "lost to or barely beaten" I mean 52/48 at worst, not 56/44 like Mega Man/Zero."

And you're still not getting that I don't use 2k3 Link for anything, period, ever, at all.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich

We have stat percentages for Kefka, so going by them he just needs to be over that.

Kefka looks to of increased so I cant really tell you how strong he must be, maybe Kos-Mos level?
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

But the Kefka/Wesker performance shows that Kefka could be stronger than that 21.21% value.

That is of course if you assume Wesker has an inkling of strength.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.

Heh, regardless of what method we want to use to "correct" the stats, there's always some glaring error somewhere else. Sephiroth/Liquid tomorrow ought to clear a little bit up (particularly if there is or isn't a 20XX Factor).
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Anyone that struggles with Luca Blight isen't a force to be reckoned with.

And Nemesis looks to be a lot stronger than Wesker, and look and how well Ocelot's doing.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!