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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 133
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 12:41:25 AM | Message Detail
Jak's a Playstation platformer. They're all fodder. Every last one of em. It's just a fact of life.

And Wily isn't? Regardless, out of all the Playstation platformers, Jak is the strongest of the bunch.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 12:46:24 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 63.32% 1726
Revolver Ocelot 36.68% 1000
TOTAL VOTES 2726

And with that, I depart for bed.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/27/2005 12:52:49 AM | Message Detail
Well, for what it's worth, Protoman would beat Jak ever so slightly according to the numbers. And I'd consider Protoman's value to be Wily's minimum strength. (I do think Proto got SFFed)
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:03:13 AM | Message Detail
Alucard has always placed ahead of Dante in every contests stats so no matter how overrated Ganondorf is in 2003 he still should be able to beat Dante going off what he did in 2004.
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:12:19 AM | Message Detail
X-stats for Robotnik's fourpack:

Dr. Robotnik: 50.00%
Sin: 48.68%
Master Hand: 40.50%
Kuja: 37.45%
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Spring Contest Score: 28/32
Today's Pick: Bowser
From: cyko | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:23:11 AM | Message Detail
well, Bowser is running away with the day vote already, as we expected. he's already gone up 0.5% in the past 30 minutes. and with all this talk of Wily being a weakling, who would you pick between Ness and Wily?

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From: cyko | Posted: 5/27/2005 4:25:13 AM | Message Detail
oh, and at least 2 perfects will drop today, plus our Ganondorf bracket:

3 LordAceron 30 Ganondorf - picked Ganon over Sephiroth.
4 BocaSE 30 Sephiroth - picked Ocelot over Bowser.
6 dddffffg 30 Sephiroth - picked Ocelot over Bowser.

that now leaves us with only THREE brackets who have a shot:

1 raziel_dark1 30 Sephiroth
2 SubZer0619 30 Sephiroth
5 crazyweasel45 30 Sephiroth

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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:18:19 AM | Message Detail
Good performance here by Bowser and Ocelot. Just around what I expected.

Finally, a match that I actually called close. It's been a while.
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Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:33:15 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 64.26% 9027
Revolver Ocelot 35.74% 5021
TOTAL VOTES 14048

Bowser is gaining percentage fast. Not good for my Oracle prediction.

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Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:35:47 AM | Message Detail
So, Ocelot's bombing really was as bad as I thought. The current results put him at around... Bomberman, maybe? And the day vote is just beginning...
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 001762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:46:16 AM | Message Detail
Are we really going to need a split on Kefka/Diablo to ensure a perfect? Yikes... scary thought. Bet those people are kicking themselves who thought they'd need Ocelot>Bowser as an upset special to seperate themselves from the pack.

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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:56:54 AM | Message Detail
You know, I can't believe I'm saying this now, but I think Kefka is going to take his division.

Before the Contest, I was laughing at people who had Kefka winning his division. I called him garbage, and thought he would lose to Ridley/Diablo. I thought it was impossible for the weakling to take his division. And then I look at him now, and I think he really has a legitimate shot. Kefka's been looking stronger, while I still have no clue where I would put Diablo.

Grr...I hate this Division.
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Bowser vs. Ocelot - Bracket: Bowser - Vote: Bowser (26/32)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 5:58:19 AM | Message Detail
Told ya.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 001762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/27/2005 6:00:41 AM | Message Detail
But today seems to be artwork. Does this mean we're getting a close up of Kefka's face in lettuce form?

I mean, that can't be good.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 6:02:19 AM | Message Detail
A close-up can't be worse than the full body pic. It'd look just about as crappy as Ocelot today.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 001762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/27/2005 6:04:50 AM | Message Detail
But I was at least hoping for his PSX final form CG picture.

Can we ever have a contest without LETTUCE?
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 6:43:53 AM | Message Detail
You people do know that if we bring Magus down to Tidus, Kefka would've gotten about the same thing on Luca in 2k4.

Maybe Magus did overperfrom on Link. We'll only know for sure on Sephiroth vs. Ganondorf.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:02:11 AM | Message Detail
I believe that Ocelot has earn a nomination from me. I think he'll do well, at least a lot better than a lot of the other snubs. For the Oracle, this match is going fine, I think Bowser is starting to gain a bit faster that how I would like to.
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RPG/Square character /= instant win. Robotnik has proved such and owned my ass.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:06:45 AM | Message Detail
Great vote totals for this match.

Great pic, too. Mario & Luigi artwork=win.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:09:38 AM | Message Detail
--If Ultros = Ansem (through CATS), Revolver loses to Bowser with 35.01%.

Bowser 64.82% 13024
Revolver Ocelot 35.18% 7069
TOTAL VOTES 20093

I gotta ask...Ultros VS Ansem, who wins?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:25:38 AM | Message Detail
Personally I will go with Ultros
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:26:56 AM | Message Detail
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:43:53 AM | #167
You people do know that if we bring Magus down to Tidus, Kefka would've gotten about the same thing on Luca in 2k4.

Maybe Magus did overperfrom on Link. We'll only know for sure on Sephiroth vs. Ganondorf.


You mean, Tidus 2004, right? That's stupid. Ganondorf only fell short of expectations by two points or so on Alucard.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 01762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:38:57 AM | Message Detail
You mean, Tidus 2004, right? That's stupid. Ganondorf only fell short of expectations by two points or so on Alucard.

That's the only thing that didn't make any sense. Even using what CATS would've gotten on Ganondorf would put him right near Tidus. Again we'll see for sure after Sephiroth vs. Ganondorf.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:41:04 AM | Message Detail
And either way, Magus overperforming by that much makes WDF look absolutely normal in comparison. The thing with Luca and CATS is, you can hardly expect fodder to remain constant when facing other fodder. Gordon Freeman, for instance, got a taste of this from 2002 to 2003.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 01762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:47:38 AM | Message Detail
Fun with extrapolation! Here's what we can extrapolate from all matches up to and including today's.

Character [Initial of character derived from] % on 2k3 Link
Sephiroth [S] 46.56
Ganondorf [G] 34.72
Liquid Snake [LS] 32.10
Bowser [B] 30.97
Lavos [LS] 28.49
Ganondorf [C] 28.43
Kefka [LB] 27.75
Mother Brain [LS] 25.19
Kefka [K] 22.75
Revolver Ocelot [B] 21.72
Mithos [LB] 19.99
Dr. Wily [B] 19.76
Vergil [S] 19.73
Nemesis [B] 19.69
Ansem [G] 17.75
Wesker [LB] 16.44
Mithos [K] 16.39
CATS [G] 16.31
Ramirez [S] 15.22
Ansem [C] 14.53
Ultros [B] 14.21
Ghaleon [S] 14.03
Wesker [K] 13.48
CATS [C] 13.36
Luca Blight [LB] 13.24
Officer Tenpenny [LS] 13.12
Sigma [B] 12.80
Andross [B] 11.91
Luca Blight [K] 10.86
Giygas [G] 10.29
Pyramid Head [B] 9.98
Giygas [C] 8.43

Lots and lots of contradictory results.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:49:49 AM | Message Detail
well it's hard to compare characters since 7 of them are old characters and the only ones that have lost are Luca and CATS. Luckily they were in the same 4-pack of someone else that was old.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:52:08 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/27/2005 7:55:27 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:05:38 AM | Message Detail
From Diabloii.net:

Best Villain Vote - Flux [7:38:PST]

Since several helpful readers have mailed in the schedule for the upcoming GameFAQs Best Villain votes, and I'm going to be out of town until next week, here they are. The only one we're much concerned with takes place Sunday, when Diablo is up again, battling Kefka, a bad guy from one of the innumerable Final Fantasy games. I'd make the joke about "How can there be more than one 'final' fantasy?" but we've all heard it before, and it wasn't funny then either.

May 27th - Bowser vs Ocelot
May 28th - Sephiroth vs Liquid Snake
May 29th - Kefka vs Diablo
May 30th - Ganondorf vs Robotnik -- (Winner goes against Diablo/Kefka in semi-finals.)

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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 01762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:22:17 AM | Message Detail
OMG SEPHTIROTHS GONNA WIN DOUE TO DIABLII.COM LINGAGE!!!!!!1
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:29:56 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and as a side-note about diabloii.net, it's kinda funny how they were confident about Diablo beating Ridley, yet didn't seem so much against Bison or the upcoming Kefka match.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:34:57 AM | Message Detail
That's because when they put up the news, Diablo was already giving a beating into Ridley, whereas he was trailing against Bison.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 01762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:37:28 AM | Message Detail
Well, yeah, that's true, though I don't think Diablo had a huge lead to speak of at the time when they put it up.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:50:53 AM | Message Detail
--If Wily = Protoman, Revolver loses to Bowser with 34.09%

Keep in mind this Protoman is individually unadjusted, though Mega Man is adjusted. Revolver's been gettin' closer and closer to this, and the day vote very well may go against him.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:55:31 AM | Message Detail
RPGuy, are those numbers on giygas with or without SFF taken into consideration?
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:57:30 AM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure it didn't consider SFF.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Fiop | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:58:03 AM | Message Detail
Just curious, but if Albedo = KOSMOS in the xstats, does Diablo have a chance to beat Ganondorf?
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Graduate of Duke University, May 2005! Woo!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/27/2005 8:58:10 AM | Message Detail
I really doubt that there was SFF. Giygas is just a weakling.
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:01:11 AM | Message Detail
If Albedo = KOS-MOS, Ganondorf loses to Diablo with 42.62%.

Now, I got work. Crap.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:03:04 AM | Message Detail
Obviously giygas is a weakling, but there still has to have been at least some SFF. Nintendo characters, no matter how distant have a tendency of SFFing each other hugely a lot of the time.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:07:24 AM | Message Detail
KOS-MOS, Ganondorf loses to Diablo with 42.62%.

While I doubt Albedo is at equal strength to KOSMOS since I've heard he doesn't come around until late in the game that's still some food for thought. That's the thing about Diablo, he could be stronger then ganon (unlikely considering this would mean bison=ryu (I think), but this is his ceiling), or weaker then kefka (I think he's a bit stronger then this, but it's within the realm of possibilities that he isn't actually very strong) . We just don't know at this point.
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From: meche313 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:09:11 AM | Message Detail
I gotta ask...Ultros VS Ansem, who wins?

I'd go with Ansem. Don't know why, but something tells me he can beat Ultros. Obviously I wouldn't be surprised with the match turning around.

On a side-note I just want to say that I'm playing FF7 ^_^ i'm heading to the Shinra Headquarters, and yeah I just started to play. </FF7>
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RPG/Square character /= instant win. Robotnik has proved such and owned my ass.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:50:18 AM | Message Detail
And another thing about HaRRicH's earlier comment: PC gamers probably know about Street Fighter and FF, for the most part. But Metroid? Let's face it, Metroid's pretty much "cult". And I don't mean that in a Suikoden kind of way, is there any better term for that?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 26/32 - Matches: 20/24 - Rank: 01762/24748 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Sephiroth
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:56:04 AM | Message Detail
Obviously giygas is a weakling, but there still has to have been at least some SFF. Nintendo characters, no matter how distant have a tendency of SFFing each other hugely a lot of the time.

See: Bowser/Yoshi, Yoshi/Luigi. Though we can't say anything about those two matches with absolute certainty, if there was SFF it wasn't much at all.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/27/2005 9:59:49 AM | Message Detail
I'm aware of that, which is why I said most of the time. Unless my memory is shot didn't ness get SFFd before though? I think Giygas got at least somewhat hurt by SSF, although it may not of been dramatic.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:21:06 AM | Message Detail
"Anyone who even has the thought cross their mind that Ganon would have trouble with Dante is simply without one."

Would you like to make a bet regarding this? I'd be willing to bet they'd be closer to 55-45 then whatever the XSt currently have them at.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:21:56 AM | Message Detail
I doubt SFF here for the simple reason that the fanbase isnt split. The same people (Mother fans and Anti-Voters of his opponent) who would vote for Gigyas normally, would vote him againist anyone else. Ness has SSB:M to get him so main Nintendo support but outside of Ness, Earthbound really falls out of the Nintendo fan radar for the most part.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:22:29 AM | Message Detail
Well, for what it's worth, Protoman would beat Jak ever so slightly according to the numbers.

Protoman is arbitrarily adjusted. Using his unadjusted number (16.12), Jak wins with 62%.

And at Ocelot's current percentage (34.33%), he stands at 21.26%, right below Viewtiful Joe. By richochet, Wily and Nemesis are both around 19.34% on 2003 Link, right above Max Payne. Here's a range of where Ocelot/Wily/Nemesis will stand depending on final percentages.

Ocelot finishes with 33% - 20.44% (right above HK-47)
Dr. Wily - 18.59% (right below Crash Bandicoot)
Jill beats Nemesis (18.53%) with 59.13%
Nemesis beats Wesker (13.48%) with 63.62%)
Jak beats Wily with 55.9%

Ocelot finishes with 34% - 21.05% (right below Jak)
Dr. Wily - 19.15% (between Max Payne and Crash Bandicoot)
Jill beats Nemesis (19.08%) with 57.91%
Nemesis beats Wesker with 64.67%
Jak beats Wily with 54.57%

Ocelot finishes with 35% - 21.67% (right above Viewtiful Joe)
Dr. Wily - 19.71% (right above Vyse)
Jill beats Nemesis (19.65%) with 56.66%
Nemesis beats Wesker with 65.69%
Jak beats Wily with 53.24%

Ocelot finishes with 36% - 22.29% (right below Bomberman)
Dr. Wily - 20.27% (between Kain and HK-47)
Jill beats Nemesis (20.21%) with 55.42%
Nemesis beats Wesker with 66.65%
Jak beats Wily with 51.92%

Note: This is all assuming Bowser or Kefka hasn't increased at all, while it's certainly possible either one has.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:28:09 AM | Message Detail
"Alucard has always placed ahead of Dante"

Actually in 2k3 Alucard is 1 behind Dante and in 2k2 he is 8 behind Dante, so without the adjusting Ganon to his 2k3 number agianst Link Alucard has never ranked ahead of Dante, though they are very close.

"You mean, Tidus 2004, right? That's stupid. Ganondorf only fell short of expectations by two points or so on Alucard."

*cough*sephoverperformedin2k3andi'vealreadydonealltheworktoshowit*cough*
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/27/2005 10:31:47 AM | Message Detail
For what it's worth, Ganondorf's "near miss" against Alucard drags him down to the adjusted Frog/Liquid/Master Chief trio based on 2003 Alucard.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
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