I'm calling it right now, Bowser will do better against Sephiroth than Ganondorf will. It may sound crazy, but I think it'll happen.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

I hope you're right.
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And how many points do you have, again? - fedor
And how many contests have you won, again? - UltimaterializerX

I hope you're right, too. Heh, Liquid's brief lead gives me hope that we can at least see Bowser ahead for a short while as well.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

All right, let's go on the assumption that not only was there no 20XX Factor, but Frog overperformed on Solid Snake due to the picture, thus making up this difference.

That means that the Frog/Liquid/Master Chief trio should REALLY be around 27.2-27.3% on 2003 Link, between Dante and Tidus.

That also means that Frog should've REALLY gotten 45.2% on Snake, nearly a 3% overperformance.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Yet, we don't know for sure even where Sephiroth stands. He could be back up to 2003 level, for all we know.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, if we assume THAT, then Liquid's currently at 29.10%.

Not too far off, actually.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Eh...if Sephy keeps beating on Liquid like this, I think Tenpenny's got an excellent shot at last place.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

Score-Brackets-% Right
32-----6--------66.6666667
31-----57-------84.2105263
30-----70-------75.7142857
29-----285------85.6140351
28-----512------78.7109375
27-----831------74.8495788
26-----1404-----75.4985755
25-----1828-----74.6717724
24-----2372-----74.0303541
23-----2596-----76.2326656
22-----2869-----74.8344371
21-----2617-----73.1371800
20-----2339-----71.9965797
19-----1980-----68.6363636
18-----1549-----63.9122014
17-----1079-----57.5532901
16-----720------54.1666667
15-----523------47.4187380
14-----402------41.7910448
13-----231------35.0649351
12-----134------23.8805970
11-----84-------29.7619048
10-----59-------18.6440678
9------27-------7.4074074
8------28-------7.1428571
7------18-------5.5555556

Anybody with a score of 6 or lower got the match wrong. We're still losing perfects and one of the remaining ones has Ganondorf as the final winner.

There were 7 people who fell off the Top 50. BocaSE, dddffffg, MxO, Da_KloWn, alexc91, thecoolguy03 and KyoAshita didn't have Bowser winning the match.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

...Forgot about Tenpenny, he's basically a GTA version of Tanner.
---
BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

I guess nobody can deny that Liquid, Frog and chief are quite the overperformers now.

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Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism

If you adjust them according to 2K3 Master Chief, this actually turns out about normal.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

I still stand by that Knuckles > Master Cheif.

It was funny though when the fanboys claimed that Chief could defeat Sonic....

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Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism

Mushroom Division X-stats:

Bowser: 50.00%
Revolver Ocelot: 34.01%
Dr. Wily: 30.94%
Nemesis: 30.84%
Ultros: 22.26%
Sigma: 21.93%
Andross: 20.40%
Pyramid Head: 16.12%
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Spring Contest Score: 28/32
Today's Pick: Bowser

Wow, that's some murder there. I love this.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

Now I checked, and DK and Scorpion took some nasty falls between 2003 and 2004. This could be due to either Sephiroth SFFing Vivi and Auron, or Cloud SFFing Sephiroth. With today's result, however, I'm thinking more the latter. I mean, without any adjustments other than 20XX factor, 2004 Sephiroth would beat Liquid with only 65%. Adjust, and it still goes up to 68%.

I think today's result is essentially a combination of factors. I'd like to see what a Sephiroth adjustment would do for the rest of his half-division in the standings.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

OMG SNOIC IZ UNBATABLE

<_<



>_>


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Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism

Hmmm, seems like Sephiroth underperformed in 2k4. I guess we'll have to adjust the 2k4 stats to account for a stronger Sephiroth, and maybe even the 2k3 stats as well. It's good to know that Cloud did, in fact, SFF Sephiroth.

Poor Liquid. This really isn't looking good for him. Looks like he really is alot weaker than we saw in 2004.

Hopefully Bowser can perform as expected against Seph.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)

Probably not 2003, though, unless you want to believe that Sephiroth really was the strongest character in the competition that year.

First thing tomorrow, I'm redoing the X-sts with Seph adjusted to 2003 level and Liquid's 4-pack adjusted accordingly with today's results. Just out of curiosity.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

I wasn't that impressed with Sephiroth beating Ramirez in the opening round and was starting to regret my pick for the championship.

However, the last two rounds have been very impressive for him. I know it's still early but I think Sephiroth can hold his margin throughout the day.

I'm getting a little worried about Bowser in the semifinals.
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Spring Contest Winner: Sephiroth over Ganondorf(or possibly Diablo)

I'm getting a little worried about Bowser in the semifinals.

No need.
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Jon Thomson - 30/36, today: Sephiroth, tomorrow: Ridley
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

You can stand by Knuckles > Master Chief all you want, that won't change it from being wrong. Master Chief isn't Liquid Snake, nor did Liquid Snake release a game called Halo 2 this year.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

By getting worried, I meant that Bowser/Sephiroth's not going to be a very interesting semi-final match up. I'd like to see the Semi-finals and finals to be a little bit interesting before they are decided. Sephiroth, I predict, is gonna get about 65% on Bowser.

I'd think Ganondorf/Diablo's going to be an interesting and the closest matchup in the tournament so far. I'm not sure who's going to win that one. I think Diablo can pull off a victory over Kefka tomorrow.
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Spring Contest Winner: Sephiroth over Ganondorf(or possibly Diablo)

Think about it.
If you weren't going to buy an xbox for Halo, why would you buy one for Halo2?

I predict no increase in Chiefs popularity.

---
Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism

Diablo would have to crush Kefka in order to get me to think that he could take down Ganon.

I'm talking 65%+, and there's no way in hell that's going to happen.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)

Seph has hit 73% and is still rising.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Liquid - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Liquid (30/36)

Think about it.
If you weren't going to buy an xbox for Halo, why would you buy one for Halo2?

I predict no increase in Chiefs popularity.

It doesn't matter why; it's a fact that the Xbox had a huge sales spike when Halo 2 was released. And hasn't Halo 2 sold more than the original in some terrirtories? That alone would be enough to say that there would be an increase in popularity for MC.

You never know.

I also find it ironic that you mention hell.
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Sometimes I'm happy to have them, but more often than not, I find myself hating them. What, you say? Limits.

Bleh... That was in reply to Moltar's not seeing Diablo crushing Kefka post...
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Sometimes I'm happy to have them, but more often than not, I find myself hating them. What, you say? Limits.

You can stand by Knuckles > Master Chief all you want, that won't change it from being wrong. Master Chief isn't Liquid Snake,

The stats would like a word with you.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Ultros: 22.26%
Sigma: 21.93%

HM's pissed...


...and wow at today's match...just, wow; Sephiroth is absolutely decimating/annihilating/raping/destroying Liquid here. Liquid keeps goin' down, too, so he better get his **** straight if he wants to be much higher than Vergil.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Halo 2 took two months to outsell the original worldwide. It showed on GameFAQs, too: it took that to propel the X-Box ownership rate from 35-40% to 45-50%.

Master Chief may have been overrated last year, but he's definitely going to be dangerous this year. He'd probably beat Frog with his mere fists in a rematch.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

Would anybody take Sigma (or Andross, even) over Ultros?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Don't forget that Xbox Live has since been made popular by Halo 2, and that Xbox beat out the Gamecube in a most-played-sytem poll about two months ago. MC very well could be dangerous...

...oh yeah, and that Halo 2 level-pack is supposed to be released in late June, last I heard. If the contest starts in July, that'd be just in time to get him goin' on a good start.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

For the record though, halo.bungie.org won't be doing any more linkage for Master Chief, largely due to me. Whoops.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

I know this has been passed around before, but is there any definitive definition as to why close fourpacks are anomalies in the stats? My guess would be that close polls are not a true indication of character strength (see: Tidus and Shadow's 2004 positions), and that close fourpacks make it worse.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Jeez, now that's just wrong. Even with Seph adjusted, Liquid would fall between Knuckles and Vercetti, and if we don't adjust Sephiroth, it's a mere notch below KOS-MOS.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

Bracket voters can cause large anomalies, since they are unaccounted for in the extrapolated statistics.

They are likely why Bowser and Sephiroth are doing better than projected.
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"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud

But are there even enough of them to make a difference? You could say the same for people who anti-vote powerhouses on purpose...
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

That makes Guybrush under-rated in the stats in 2k4!!!!!!@!!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

I can't believe people are talking about SEPHIROTH being rated wrong in the stats.... Good god....
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Sephiroth just hates numbers, dammit.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Well, what percentage of people do you think bracket vote? Bowser had 70% of the brackets, and Sephiroth likely has considerably more.

I'm more curious however about bracket percentage however in close four packs (Ganondorf/Tidus/Magus and Frog/Master Chief/ Liquid). The above was merely an added aside.
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"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud

Seeing how only about one third of voters have brackets, and that's assuming EVERYONE with brackets votes...
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

To clarify, if the prediction percentage is extreme in a close four pack, I think the one with the the backing will likely be overrated by the stats and the one without will be underrated.

Someone with a lot of time on their hands (not me!) should estimate the amount of bracket voters, take them out of every poll, and recalculate the extrapolated statistics from scratch.
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"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud

Even if, say, 25% of those with brackets bracket vote, it could make a large difference down the chain of rankings due to how they are calculated.
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"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud

For Frog's four-pack, it was most likely Chief > Liquid > Frog in brackets.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 30/36 - Matches: 21/25 - Rank: 01386/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Kefka

Frog > Liquid had 44.33% of the brackets. MC > Crash had 76.58% of 'em, and Frog > MC had 22.56%.

Ganon > Tidus had 47.72% of the brackets. Magus > Fisher had 56.92% of 'em, and Magus > Ganon had 24.25%.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

The funny thing is that there are probably 20 people watching this topic like a hawk, waiting for the 499th post so they can steal 500.

Well, here it is.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

Hmm, I may need to repost my request for recalculation (rmrfr) so that somebody bored will notice it.

Does 25% sound reasonable for bracket voters?

I'd like to see the 500th post actually be on topic this time.
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"Sephiroth's strength is unreal. He is far stronger in reality then any story you might have heard about him." - Cloud