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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 131
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:03:48 PM | Message Detail
I'm going to nominate Sub Zero, Chun-Li, Vincent Valentine, Tifa Lockheart, Geno, Serge, Seifer, Leon Kennedy, Toad and Zelda.

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence (24/26 - Current Match - Diablo)
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:04:15 PM | Message Detail
If you think Toad could possibly break 20%, where would you place Goomba or Koopa Troopa?
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:06:46 PM | Message Detail
I'd also really like to see Mog in the contest, but that's asking for a lot. But still he'd stand for moogles even MORE than Vivi stands for Black Mages. I'm sure he'd pull in some fairly decent numbers.

Seeing how Aeris and Zelda have performed in this contest (Zelda isn't THAT far away from Aeris...), I'm sure Peach would be near them. We already know where Luigi stands, so I wouldn't mind seeing Peach getting his spot.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:07:30 PM | Message Detail
Arbiter (H2) - Spoil me on this, so I know why he'd be a force. And don't say "cause it's a Halo" cause we know I'll kill you for that.
Kratos (GoW) - I don't feel impressed with GoW, I just don't hear it mentioned all that much, ya know...
CJ (GTA:SA) - I don't think he'll be as good as Vercetti... and I'd absolutely hate to see two GTA characters in one contest personally, heh.
Kerrigan (SC:BW) - When mentioned she lands anywhere from fodder to force depending upon who you ask. We'll see what Diablo does and if people think that it'll carry over to her.
Naked Snake (MGS3:SE) - Does he count? Wouldn't he go by another name? Depending on what Ocelot does I think that short of carrying in the Snake name that this Big guy might be a speck.
Lloyd Irving (ToS) - Mithos did do well, didn't he...
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:10:18 PM | Message Detail
Probably around this area.

52 Laharl 14.25% Midgar 9 15 15.28% 14.79%
53 Lara Croft 13.91% Chaos 15 13 14.91% 14.43%
54 Gordon Freeman 13.40% Chaos 10 14 14.37% 13.91%
55 Terry Bogard 12.86% Chaos 16 15 13.79% 13.35%
56 Luca 12.35% Hyrule 11 12 13.25% 12.82%
57 Earthworm Jim 12.25% 20XX 16 15 13.14% 12.72%
58 CATS 12.17% Hyrule 16 13 13.05% 12.63%

I'm sure they could take out many a fodder characters just out of recognition advantage. The goomba would probably fare a bit better. CATS is the first guy I'd have trouble putting them over, but I could conceivably see them beating one of these guys. (It would be sad if they did, but I could see it)

Toad's pretty popular in the games that he is actually in, I have to say. At least from what I've observed. I'd hesitate to put him over Peach because of her game advantage, but he'd be a tempting upset pick.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:14:19 PM | Message Detail
HALO 2 SPOILERS!


Having never played Halo 2, I don't know much about Arbiter or even if this is a spoiler, but I do know that you play as him for part of the game. And that's got to count for something. You're better off getting info from HM or Harrich than me, though.

END HALO 2 SPOILERS!

Kratos feels a lot like Hayabusa to me. Fairly popular game that's more about action than story. He could do all right; though he certainly wouldn't be anything spectacular, I don't think >20% on Link is too much to ask.


METAL GEAR SOLID 3 SPOILERS!

Naked Snake could also go by Big Boss, in which case he could be in trouble, but, hey, he's the hero of MGS3 and he not only has Snake in his name but he also looks exactly like Solid Snake. This may mean he's ineligible for pretty much the same reasons as Mega Man X, but he would break 20% if he got in, that's for sure.

END MGS3 SPOILERS!
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I like traffic lights!
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:16:18 PM | Message Detail
On the subject of strong characters that haven't been in a contest yet...

...pretty much everyone from FFVII would be able to make some noise. Especially Tifa, Barret, and maybe Vincent (being an optional character, I'm not entirely convinced he'd do as well as the other two.)

I doubt that any of the main characters from FFVIII would be fodder, either.

From the Mario series, we haven't yet seen Peach, Daisy, Waluigi, Geno, or Mallow. Peach and Geno would at least be comparable to Luigi.

From the Zelda series...uhh...Epona, maybe? Malon? Impa? Aryll? Navi? TINGLE?

Now that I think about it, Link vs. Tingle would be hilarious. 95% for the man in green, anyone?...Oh, wait. They both wear green. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see that match be the biggest blowout in contest history. If Ganon, who is #10 in our adjusted 2004 rankings, could only manage 12% against Link...oh God.

I'd be interested in seeing Kraid in the contest, though he's admittedly even more unremarkable than Ridley.

I wouldn't expect any of the original 8 SFII characters to be fodder. I mean, isn't Ken #12 on the 2002 rankings?

Sub-Zero would probably do better than Scorpion, though I can't see it being by much.

How about some more Castlevania characters? ...Yeah, they'd probably do pretty bad, though with Soma Cruz receiving a new game and all...

...All of the playable Chrono Trigger characters we haven't seen yet would do decently. Maybe even Schala as well.

Tales of Symphonia's strength is a bit difficult to judge, seeing as how we've never seen it in a contest before, but Lloyd would be equal to Luigi at the very minimum. This is just my hypothesis, though. >_>

Any of the FFX characters we haven't seen yet would do well. Rikku in particular would be at least as strong as Yuna.

CJ from San Andreas would be a black version of Tommy in the contest. Maybe even a bit better.

How about the supporting MGS characters? Otacon, Meryl, The Boss...I'm just throwing out suggestions, here.

If Vivi's strength is any indication, FFIX's characters wouldn't do half-bad. Zidane is the most obvious choice, of course.

I dunno why people are so desperate to see Diddy Kong in the contest, quite honestly. He'd be little more than the reincarnation of AiAi.

We've yet to see a few Sonic characters in the contest. Amy, Metal Sonic, Rouge, uhh...Big (>_>).

Leon Kennedy would do at least as well as Jill with all the hubbub over RE4.

That's all I can think of for now.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:17:34 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:18:12 PM | Message Detail
From the Mario series, we haven't yet seen Peach, Daisy, Waluigi, Geno, or Mallow. Peach and Geno would at least be comparable to Luigi.

Square called, they want their characters back.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:18:17 PM | Message Detail
"Kratos feels a lot like Hayabusa to me."

Same here, at least in terms of contest performance. I'd be willign to bet he's getting in without any vote rallying or he's not getting in at all. That's how spotty the types are (and how MC used to be).

And yeah, I know who Naked Snake is, didn't you notice me capitalizing the word "big" when I was commenting on him? Too subtle, perhaps. Anyway, I'm thinking he gets the BB name instead of NS if he makes the contest.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:19:51 PM | Message Detail
I can't see Toad being more than high-end fodder, and much stronger than a Goomba. Toads are as common as Goombas, just not evil...and I don't think Toadsworth gets a lot of fan support, from what I hear. Yes, he's a specific Toad...but I felt like bringing it up.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:22:41 PM | Message Detail
"Square called, they want their characters back."

Square may have created them, but they only exist as characters in a Mario game.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: transience | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:24:05 PM | Message Detail
Mog would be awesome. I dare someone to handicap Mog vs. Vivi.

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:25:40 PM | Message Detail
Square may have created them, but they only exist as characters in a Mario game.

I believe Sora got around the Square cap because he was considered Disney...
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:26:10 PM | Message Detail
Diabloii.net was bound to bring in more attention this time than it did last time. If anything, last time was more of the alert and this time they were prompt and ready to deliver the link - and at an earlier time to boot. But I cannot possibly imagine vote stuffing of significance in today's match, and certainly not just at Diablo. In such a close match, it is ridiculous to blame one and not the other as well.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:27:33 PM | Message Detail
The one character I would suggest nominating is Kerrigan. She should perform well above the usual fodder, although how strong she would be remains to be seen.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:29:06 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I've got this little plan to attempt at getting Zeratul in the contest, but you probably wouldn't want to waste a nomination on that...

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:30:27 PM | Message Detail
I have severe doubts that Kerrigan would be anything but fodder.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:30:51 PM | Message Detail
Kratos feels a lot like Hayabusa to me.

That's exactly how I feel about him. He'll probably make it into the contest, but I wouldn't expect much out of him at all.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:31:22 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I've got this little plan to attempt at getting Zeratul in the contest, but you probably wouldn't want to waste a nomination on that...

Heh, whaddya know, you read my mind.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:32:10 PM | Message Detail
I would put her above the vast majority of the "fodder" we've seen in this contest. I would even go so far as to put her above Kefka's 2004 adjusted value. I say his value over him in the off chance that he's higher than what those stats dictate.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:32:47 PM | Message Detail
Ugh... I can't believe you even MENTIONED Waluigi....

Epona however would be a force. I bet she takes on Bomberman or Vyse like characters with ease. <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:39:04 PM | Message Detail
Yes, Ceej cheated his own cap in some regards. Not a big deal, since as I've heard it Disney owns rights to Sora (not sure on it, though)... and he did it for a good cause (either Frog or Vivi) so I don't mind.

Zeratul? Not unless I'm shot in the head and suffer from severe brain damage. And I say that in the nicest, kindest way.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:40:43 PM | Message Detail
You have a problem with the greatest of the Dark Templar?

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:41:57 PM | Message Detail
Yes, Disney owns the right to Sora. Square attempted to use him in another game, and Disney threatened to sue for it.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:42:48 PM | Message Detail
Square does own the rights to both Geno and Mallow, as well.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:47:45 PM | Message Detail
People I will nominate:
Leon Kennedy
Chun-Li
Lloyd Irving
Zelda
The Top Villian by stats not already in the contest
Kerrigan just because Starcraft deserves a character in here.
Geno

I will nominate Manny Calavera as he is my "I know he wont get in, but I do it for principle" character.

The other two not sure of.

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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:53:34 PM | Message Detail
Nope, no problem with Zeratul other than the one you obviously know of, his chances are slim.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:55:06 PM | Message Detail
Even Heroic Mario preaches it! Geno and Mallow are Square characters! omg!

Bowser vs Geno = Nintendo vs Square? Bring it on!
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:56:17 PM | Message Detail
Of course they are square characters, no one is disputing that. But they only exist in Mario's world, therefor they are also Mario characters. Is that hard to understand?
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:57:30 PM | Message Detail
But what I am saying is, they are Square characters, so they will fight with Cloud, Sephiroth, Squall and co. to make the cap instead of Link, Mario, Samus and co.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/24/2005 6:58:05 PM | Message Detail
I'd love to nominate Zeratul... but I just need 20 nomination slots. At 10 he can't find his way in.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/26 - Matches: 19/21 - Rank: 00252/24748 - Today: Ridley - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:02:01 PM | Message Detail
It's difficult to nominate some of the characters I want when I've automatically locked up half of my slots (6 of them, really, if you want to count my Squall nomination as well). I'm almost certain I'll nominate Tidus as well since he came close to missing the cut with the cap. Then those last 3 are very difficult to decide between.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:19:28 PM | Message Detail
Sorry folks, but even if Kerrigan were to make it in, she'd be barely above fodder. Kerrigan is nowhere near as close to Starcraft as Diablo (the villian) is to Diablo I/II. Sure, the board might love her to death, but the casual voter could barely care less. I wouldn't even think twice about putting Ansem over her.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:21:15 PM | Message Detail
Why would you want to nominate Tidus? He's been in 3 year already and he's not that special, if he misses out on one it won't kill anybody.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:37:55 PM | Message Detail
I won't try to justify these three, and I know two have already been mentioned...but I'd like to see these three in the next contest:

Arbiter
Zidane
Protoman


As for today's match, Kefka doesn't look to be in half as much trouble as many of us suspected, though I'll still take Diablo.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: cyko | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:41:30 PM | Message Detail

Just going by my ever shrinking list of characters I want to see in but havent made it I've got three: Geno, Vincent, Mai.

Chichiri, have i told you today that i love you? ^_^

so far, my nominations will probably go to:

Shadow (FF6) - i'm telling you, he could possibly out-perform Kefka!!
Mai Shiranui
Morrigan
Vincent Valentine
King of All Cosmos
Lloyd Irving
Princess Peach

and these 3 on principle, but i would be willing to nominate others if i found a worthy character that hasn't made the contest yet:

Magus
Zero
Bowser

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:42:51 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I'd recommend Tifa over Vincent, or at least nominating Tifa since I doubt my simple recommendation's gonna change your predetermined nomination.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:43:45 PM | Message Detail
Why would you want to nominate Tidus? He's been in 3 year already and he's not that special, if he misses out on one it won't kill anybody.

Because Tidus is one of my favorite characters, and I'd like to see him get a fair draw in the contest for once, much like Knuckles.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:52:00 PM | Message Detail
At the 19:45 mark, this match has 76765 votes. To compare to some other matches at the same time:

Sephiroth/Ramirez - 75345
Ridley/Diablo - 66945
Ganondorf/Giygas - 72950
Sephiroth/Vergil - 73194

This match is on pace easily to have the highest vote totals. Didn't quite expect this.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:53:52 PM | Message Detail
Why Tidus needs to be in? Simple. His mere presence will leave us scratching our heads, since he can either hang around with Ganondorf or barely beat Knuckles depending on his mood on the day of the match.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/26 - Matches: 19/21 - Rank: 00252/24748 - Today: Ridley - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:54:44 PM | Message Detail
Hello there, underperformance.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:54:57 PM | Message Detail
Same for Shadow, except the concept of his existance needs to kiss our collective asses.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:55:17 PM | Message Detail
Sure, the board might love her to death, but the casual voter could barely care less. I wouldn't even think twice about putting Ansem over her.

What? Are you serious? Kerrigan would have absolutely no trouble disposing of Ansem with absolute ease. That match would and should never be questioned to even possibly, in the wildest dreams, go toward Ansem. There is absolutely nothing to say that Kerrigan is completely uncared for by the casuals, where in the world would this stem from? If anything, Diablo should give you a very solid idea of how another Blizzard villain from a more popular game - yes, I would not take Diablo II over StarCraft at all - here at GameFAQs.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:57:04 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Kerrigan would be anything special either...but after Diablo, I wouldn't under-estimate Kerrigan to be THAT low ever again.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:57:11 PM | Message Detail
Right, HM. Problem being we've had more over estimations of newbies than underestimations... you not at all helping that probelm.
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win. - Harrich
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:59:03 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan is completely different from Diablo. Diablo is in the SP and MP parts of his game well Kerrigan is only in SP and SC is more widely played on MP. Plus her name isin't in the frikking title. I can't see her being near Diablo.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/24/2005 7:59:15 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/24/2005 8:00:02 PM | Message Detail
Perhaps the only characters we've actually underestimated in this contest are Nemesis and Mithos. Maybe Master Hand, too, though I chalk that up more to overestimation of Kuja.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/24/2005 8:00:56 PM | Message Detail
One thing that has more or less remained consistent is the underestimation of Blizzard entries, and I fall victim to this not once but twice. We know that StarCraft is one of the most popular and strongest games here and we know that someone from another Blizzard game is able to put up numbers and potentially beat out Kefka - someone I think is good at determining strength and weakness due to his position in the X-sts. I've said earlier that I would take Kerrigan over his 2004 adjusted value and she's certainly got that potential given all we've seen from Blizzard representatives.


Now, yes, there would be some overestimation, but I would wager many would be likely to underestimate her more than overestimate. A good example of this is what you just saw in seeing someone with the thought that Ansem could beat her.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul
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