I have a feeling CATS rose a bit from the picture/bracket support. But I also think Ganon dropped a bit. I don't trust those sequences of close matches and I'm expecting that he and Magus both dropped just like Tidus did. (Maybe more, maybe less)
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

CATS's picture might have helped, but I don't count on it much. Same thing about Ganon dropping/being over-estimated. I'll think more on it tomorrow...but, for now, I sleep.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

He only needs to raise 4% to be at his proper projection. And come on. He can do that in the day.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

Meh, it's just speculation, really. Haven't got anything better to do a 3 in the morning.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And note: I said it was only an assumption. Either way, rising from a tripling to a quadrupling is pretty difficult.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

...or how about the fact that we are a mere 20 minutes into the poll, hmm?

Yeah, but Kingdom Hearts is usually fairly strong during the day. You would expect the Nintendo/old school bias of the board to cause Ganon to be up more than normal in the early part of the vote, and then go down a bit; rather than Ansem to go down. He's not exactly the type that you'd expect to garner the board vote. But, perhaps he is. And maybe Ganon will "win" the day.

Perhaps his chances of winning the day are hurt by the non-SSBM recognizable pic? We're talking about minor stuff here, but maybe it matters a teensy bit.
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www.SC2K5.com

By the same note, I'm thinking Liquid, Frog, and Master Chief are all overrated. Not just because of the "Solid **** factor" either. Actually, Master Chief might not be overrated because of Halo 2 helping him out now...
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

All I know is that Bison was beating Diablo during the early vote, and then a Blizzard character ran away with the day vote. After seeing that, I decree that just about anyone can take the day vote from Ansem, because, well, I would imagine Darkness does not perform as well during the light hours.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostea Din Tei for Trivia XV

If Master Chief is overrated, I still don't expect Halo 2 to push him up to that adjusted 2004 level.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

After seeing that, I decree that just about anyone can take the day vote from Ansem, because, well, I would imagine Darkness does not perform as well during the light hours.

But that's when he started killing CATS.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

ll I know is that Bison was beating Diablo during the early vote, and then a Blizzard character ran away with the day vote.

But that was expected by just about everybody.
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www.SC2K5.com

Especially considering that SFII is just about as bad with the day vote as Chrono Trigger is.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

C'mon Ansem, avoid that tripling! That would be great... heh heh.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

I figured a quadrupling wouldn't happen since Heroic Mario made a topic proclaiming it would.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

"Adobe After Effects"

Hmmm... It's worth a shot. since I made my video in Premiere, it should transfer over well.

I'll see if I can get this project finally done with.
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"And if that doesn't deserve a giant WTF, I don't know what does. Perhaps even an OMGWTF, with a side of BBQ."~CJayC

Now that Ganondorf and CATS have a common opponent, can we work out how accurate the SFF adjustment in Link/Ganondorf was, if we assume, say, a 75-25 result here?
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Jon Thomson - 24/28, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Kuja
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

This is looking a little low for Ganondorf...

Using the XP stats, it would put him at about 26.60 on Link.

Definitely a little lower than I would expect. That's Kirby level.

So I'm just going to ignore the stats on this one... ><
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

Now that Ganondorf and CATS have a common opponent

Of course, I mean other than Link.
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Jon Thomson - 24/28, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Kuja
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

I just think that CATS overperformed on Ansem by a ton. Every CATS fan most likely rallied to get him to win his only true chance.

If only we could have persuaded diabloii.net that CATS was an ultra secret hidden character in Diablo...
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Jon Thomson - 24/28, today: Ganondorf, tomorrow: Kuja
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

X-stats for Diablo's fourpack:

Diablo: 50.00%
M. Bison: 47.12%
Ridley: 42.35%
Albedo: 29.74%
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Spring Contest Score: 24/28
Today's Pick: Ganondorf

Damn, Ganondorf's stinking in this one. Of course, he's still in no danger whatsoever, but he gotta up his game with the day vote.

NOT EVEN DARKNESS CAN SAVE YOU FROM ME!!!
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/26 - Matches: 19/21 - Rank: 00252/24748 - Today: Ridley - Tomorrow: Ganondorf

I agree, CATS's performance against Ansem was most likely a huge over-performance. Ansem's probably a bit stronger that he showed.

>.> Someone needs to help defend Ganon!
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Out of space....
It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!

Just as I expected so far....I figured CATS benefitted from his R1 pic. It could also be that more people outside of Board 8 are starting to catch on to CATS, too. Still early in the poll, though...

Oh, and why is Ansem's KH-CoM picture used? Shouldn't it be his first game, not the game with the worst graphics? If the latter, shouldn't Mega Man have gotten his Game Boy pic in past contests? =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Bowser got a SMW pic, Ocelot got a MGS3 pic, etc.

And did I mention I hate Eggman's pic? I WANTED THE DISCO BALL DAMMIT!
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/28 - Matches: 19/22 - Rank: 00848/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Kuja

Okay, I feel like an idiot. Neglected past matches, and getting mixed up with past contests, argh.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Prelim XS for Ganondorf's 4 pack on 2k3 Link:
Through Ganondorf:
Ganondorf 34.72
Ansem 17.22
CATS 15.83
Giygas 10.29

Through CATS:
Ganondorf 29.30
Ansem 14.53
CATS 13.36
Giygas 8.69

*strokes beard thoughtfully*
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I like traffic lights!

Here's some fun stuff to throw out:
-CATS could end up ranking ahead of 11 characters, including Albert Wesker!
-If Kefka and Sephiroth remained constant with their 2K4 values last year, and their matches down to Ghaleon and Luca Blight were accurate, Ghaleon would beat Luca Blight with 60.41%.
-if Albedo = Wesker, Kefka would beat Diablo with 50.21%.
-the most popular non-Square RPG character is most likely going to Mithos, as many of you probably knew, anyway.

RPGuy: I think technically the best method would be taking the average betweent those, but I'd trust the constant Ganondorf more.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

The thought of Giygas being as weak as AiAi is a strange, yet joyful one.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/28 - Matches: 19/22 - Rank: 00848/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Kuja

XD. People campaign for years to get Ghaleon and Luca in, and when they do, they get owned by Mithos, which few even care about. This is awesome.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 24/28 - Matches: 19/22 - Rank: 00848/24748 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Kuja

Hey, it's not OFFICIAL yet.... ><
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

I expect to hear people try to argue a Magus over-performance against Link with this match soon.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Bah, but that's almost worthless, as precise calculations based on a static CATS still will not match '04 Tidus' value nor would does it match the '03 value of Alucard.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'm not saying I agree with it, to clarify. I do wanna ask though, should Ganon be corrected by Ansem here and he was this strong in 2k3/4, then how strong are Sam Fisher 2k3 and Luca Blight 2k4 through Magus?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

i wonder can we get our first perfect bracket tis year in the summer contest
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So what do you do all day ? I run a couple of newspapers.- Orson Welles in Citizen Kane

I'm not saying I agree with it, to clarify.
Yeah, I know, but that's my argument to anyone who might think that in the future. :P

I do wanna ask though, should Ganon be corrected by Ansem here and he was this strong in 2k3/4, then how strong are Sam Fisher 2k3 and Luca Blight 2k4 through Magus?

Ganon's at 75.33% right now, so that would place Magus at a predicted 29.99% against Link, and Sam Fisher at 20.24% against Link. That also puts Luca Blight at 11.38%. So, you could use Luca Blight as an argument, but it'd be a pitiful one, as we don't know how Blight, GDorf, Kefka, or Magus might've changed.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

But the thing is, it's pretty hard for Ganondorf and Magus to be much lower, since it's almost a given that Magus is stronger than Frog.

Hmmm...and how far off are those calculations from Tidus's or Alucard's 2k3/4 now?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

If Liquid Snake is over-rated much at all, then there's breathing room for Magus to go down. I'm still not entirely buying this, but it doesn't seem entirely impossible and should be explored.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Or wait; this could get me spit in my face, but Imma ask: is it possible at all that Frog >or= Magus?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Doubtful, but I'd love it if it were true.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I've thought about Frog possibly being stronger than Magus, but I don't think so...

Hmmm...and how far off are those calculations from Tidus's or Alucard's 2k3/4 now?
Using '04 Tidus (with 20XX factor) as a measuring stick Magus would be at 27.73%. Using '03 unadjusted Alucard (through Ganondorf/Alucard and Ganon/Magus) Magus is measured at 32.16% against Link.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

What would be the percentage on Ganon vs. Tidus then? Should we keep Ganon constant with his match with Tidus or his match with Magus?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

All those numbers...are based on '03 Link.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

...someone with X-Stats prowress out to adjust the X-Stats to be based on a constant Ryu...just because it'd be interesting.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio

Well, even basing everything on a constant Ryu (which I believe was done to adjust the 2002 West Division) doesn't correct anomalies.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Ansem was probably about two percents stronger than he showed againist CATS. There is more than enough reason to believe CATS overperformed.
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"You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun" - Manny Calavera

Very possible that he did overperform. We'll have to wait until the Final Four to discover the answers.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Link >>> Samus >> Magus > Magus fans.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Magus > all
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I like traffic lights!