Welcome to SC2K4.

To be fair, there was some debate thanks to Luca getting a Dark Matter to the face on whether or not he was really that weak. Kind of like how some of us want to see Raiden get back in a SC just to see how strong he really is.
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Two turtle-like fighters make their debuts in Middle... Will either Blastoise or Cagnazzo manage to win? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!

Even then, Crono didnt gain so much as Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man dropped like rocks.

Hello, WDF.

And the difference between Luca and Raiden is that one actually comes from a very popular game (not to mention actually facing somebody from his own game in a match), and the other doesn't. At most, Luca could've hoped to be on level with Laharl, which still makes him fodder.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I only want to see Raiden back in this contest if he faces Solid Snake, Link, or Cloud. Just to watch him get destroyed.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

He might actually do better against Link or Cloud than he did against Snake.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Here is what I dont get about the WDF, it only works for some characters. Ryu is the epitome of being consistant. Tidus didnt drop. Crash gained. Sephiroth gained, but I guess KHF.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Here, let me help you... the WDF is a load of crap. There we go, problem solved.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Oh, an din the 45 minutes it has taken me to eat breakfast and catch up Kefka only lost .03%, now this is the impressive showing I expected from him.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Here, let me help you... the WDF is a load of crap. There we go, problem solved.

So Sonic was stronger than Mario in 2002 then?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Ryu is the epitome of being consistant. Tidus didnt drop. Crash gained. Sephiroth gained, but I guess KHF.

Ryu dropped from 34.62 (2002 stats) to 30.69 (2003 stats) actually. Tidus resisted the drop either by underperforming against Sonic or somehow getting a KH boost. Sephiroth got help from KHF. Crash...Who knows?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Here, let me help you... the WDF is a load of crap. There we go, problem solved.

The only other reason could be Link vs. Mario SFF and that Link grew from 2k2 to 2k3.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

The thing is, Ryu is only consistent if you adjust with WDF. I'll go check that right away, and when I'm back, I have another idea to throw on the table regarding Luca.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

What were Sonic's bracket prediction percentages in 2k2? I would think him being a 1 seed and nobody knowing ANYBODY'S strength in 2k2 would play a large factor in that contest. That's one of the reasons why I figured Mario was able to beat Cloud.... Lower vote totals, unknown strengths, didn't know what to expect... Plenty of matches were toss-ups. I'd like to see a lot of the prediction percentages for that contest (mainly Mario, Sonic, Samus, Snake, Crono, Cloud....)
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Okay, so that assumption just above was correct. Ryu clocks in at 35% in 2002, vs. around 30% for the other two.

Now, it's been said that Luca would be at around 11% on Link 2004 if Kefka were static and the result remained the same. Tell me, how much more would have Magus needed to throw Luca down there? One or two points, maybe? Here's the thing. Maybe, just maybe, cult characters like Luca will tend to be much more difficult to utterly destroy, and maybe he'd have ranked higher had he faced Link himself. Instead, this time, he faced absolute fodder, and that's where he may be exposed as the loser he truly is.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/c02sumstats.html

Have fun.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

Mario and Link had nearly identical prediction percentages for reaching the finals (30-31%). Only 60% of the brackets had Sonic advancing past Tidus/Claire Redfield.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And the hilarious thing is, despite the gigantic outcry and UPSET mentions, Samus still had higher odds than Sonic.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

Looking at those stats, I just found something startling: More people had Max Payne beating Dirk the Daring than had Sephiroth beating Gabe Logan.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Here is what I am thinking and its similiar to what Charmander said. Link vs Mario SFF did exist. Even if I do it by the amount that we adjusted Mega Man vs Link (which is crazy for that much, but might fight for this), that pulls Mario, Crono, and Cloud above Samus. Much more reasonable. Going by the idea that all the characters did better againist Link due to the uncertainity of the contest, it makes since for everyones percentage to drop except Links and obviously Cloud/Sephiroth. This make 2k3 look almost perfect with Mega Man, Mario, Crono, Samus. Only Sonic's drop is more. With an adjusted Snake, Sonic's drop is only 3 percentages.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Adjusting Mario's half of the bracket up without doing anything to Link makes nearly EVERYBODY drop in 2003 then. That means Link increased.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And the hilarious thing is, despite the gigantic outcry and UPSET mentions, Samus still had higher odds than Sonic.

IIRC many people had a Mario vs. Sonic final with Mario winning.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Wind Waker DID come out in 2003. There is a reason for Link to increase.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Well, that's either Link/Sephiroth or Link/Mario, since the South division was absolutely worthless to begin with and almost no one there ever came back. A Link increase with Wind Waker? That'd be scary, especially since some people are hell-bent on blaming it for his loss.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

I could see all this happening if that didnt require Cloud/Sephiroth to jump even more like rockets to get to Link. How the hell can a small cameo in Kingdom Hearts lead to that big of an increase for Sephiroth.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I've always thought that was ridiculous, especially after seeing how well Wind Waker did in the Spring Contest (practically dead even with StarCraft and Final Fantasy X). Sure, it doesn't compare to LttP or OoT, but that doesn't mean it's not popular.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

IIRC many people had a Mario vs. Sonic final with Mario winning.

I would have thought as much, but it doesn't appear that way by the prediction percentages... At least not enough to make a notable difference in Sonic's strength. WDF is obviously due to Sephiroth's performance against Link. It's a weakness of extrapolated rankings if something goes unexpected in a match....

A big eye-opener in the 2k2 prediction percentages is only 50% of the brackets predicted CLOUD to get past Fox, Pikachu, and Alucard???? WTF flag at full mast....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I could see all this happening if that didnt require Cloud/Sephiroth to jump even more like rockets to get to Link

Well, if Link increased in 2003 and he SFF'd Mario in 2002, then Cloud probably wasn't that all THAT far from him. Sephiroth...I guess you can say he overperformed against Cloud in 2003 and 2004 is his true strength.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And an overperformance in 2003 would make sense especially considering many people thought Cloud would be reserve SFF'd.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Yeah, if so much as ONE match is totally intransitive, we're screwed. That's why we have three years worth of data, and besides, trying to pinpoint what went wrong in 2002 is more and more useless because we have up-to-date data to go by.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 2:09:13 PM | #326
I could see all this happening if that didnt require Cloud/Sephiroth to jump even more like rockets to get to Link

Well, if Link increased in 2003 and he SFF'd Mario in 2002, then Cloud probably wasn't that all THAT far from him. Sephiroth...I guess you can say he overperformed against Cloud in 2003 and 2004 is his true strength.

The issue with Mario isn't SFF against Link, as much as turning what's now a projected 20000-vote deficit into a 300-vote win.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

Didn't most returing characters of the South division dropped? Let's take a look.

Pac-Man - He dropped, but it was mostly because of SFF, but 2k4 makes things weird
Scorpion - He fell
Max - grew, but can't use him because of Sephiroth
Bomberman - fell, but can't use him because of Sephiroth
Jill - She fell
Kirby - grew, but can't use him because of Sephiroth
Raziel - fell, but can't use him because of Sephiroth
Link - we can't really use him.

We really can't make much of a conclusion because of Sephiroth.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Here's the answer. 2003 Sephiroth is constant with 2003 Sephiroth, right? Two grew, two fell. That's your answer.

Scorp actually grew a bit, Jill falls every year, and Pac-Man's the Tidus of the undercard.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

That's not quite how it works.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

......Never mind.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....

OK, I last checked this with less than an hour gone. Now Kefka has a bigger %age. I'm confused.
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Jon Thomson - 22/24, today: Kefka, tomorrow: Ridley
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

The afterschool vote should typically begin right about now.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley

Don't be confused. This match is simply showing us that Kefka is indeed stronger when he has the proper pic.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 24, Rank: 26 (T1), Pick: Kefka
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

It still shocks me a little when people are dead set on believing nothing happend to Link between 2k2 and 2k3...
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Here's the answer. 2003 Sephiroth is constant with 2003 Sephiroth, right? Two grew, two fell. That's your answer.

Yeah, I'm sure 2003 Sephiroth is constant with himself, nobody's going to deny that.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
Contest Stats: 19/22 Next Winner: Liquid Snake

It still shocks me a little when people are dead set on believing nothing happend to Link between 2k2 and 2k3...

Are you one of those thinking he actually increased, or do you think that he decreased?
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

At the 12:50 mark, this match has 41460 votes. To compare to other matches at the same time:

Kefka/Mithos - 37172
Albedo/Bison - 35536
Ridley/Diablo - 47118
Lavos/Liquid - 46219
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Am I the only one who believes in WDF (although not for the reason given), Mario Vs. Link SFF and Link increasing between 2002 and 2003? The latter two cancel each other out anyway.

And I'll never understand why people believe Sephiroth overperformed against Alucard for no logical reason. Can someone please give me a reason other than Sephiroth hates numbers?

For all we know Ganondorf could have decreased in popularity, or Alucard could have increased due to a lack of casual voters helping his cultness. And Kirby and Bomberman most likely "increased" because Squall was adjusted too high, based on the false assumption that he stayed the same. If a site that is biased towards RPGS suddenly loses a bunch of casual voters, wouldn't it make sense to assume that the chracters to suffer most would be new-school Square characters, which includes Squall? Sephiroth, Tidus and the POTD where Nintendo all of a sudden became GameFAQS most popular company support this.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Why would he not increase? We already knew about Wind Waker Link in 2002. The backlash againist it was much worse in 2002 than it was in late 2003.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

And I'll never understand why people believe Sephiroth overperformed against Alucard for no logical reason.

Look at Alucard's four pack in 2004 compared to 2003. Alucard and Kirby both increased by about the same amount, and Bomberman went up even more than that.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Doth mine eyes deceive me? Kefka is...actually showing strength!?

Wow Wesker, you better hope that Kefka's getting all these votes because of his sprite pic, or else you absolutely suck. This is expected from Luca, but not you, Wesker.

Oh well, this'll only hurt more when Diablo/Bison destroy Kefka next round.

Actually, Kefka might put up some fight...I mean, we can't COMPLETELY look past today's match.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Kefka vs. Wesker - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Wesker (22/24)

Resident Evil is a hellva sloppy job for stats.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

If a site that is biased towards RPGS suddenly loses a bunch of casual voters, wouldn't it make sense to assume that the chracters to suffer most would be new-school Square characters, which includes Squall?

Wait...What now? Honestly, there's nothing wrong with Squall being where he is. He has to be higher than Alucard in the 2004 stats by a noticeable amount, and he is.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I dont know what to make of Resident Evil. Is Wesker just that weak compared to the rest of the series, or has the series not increased at all from Resident Evil 4. Leon = Jill seems like more of a possibility.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

What's scarier (nopun intended) is that Nemesis is probably the strongest RE character.

Mwahahah.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

I'd put Leon over Jill, personally.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Kefka vs. Wesker - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Wesker (22/24)