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Contest Stats and Dicussion - Part 129
From: Yesmar | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:12:11 AM | Message Detail
Okay. Fun with stats. You can ignore my crazy theories if you want, but anyway.

If we assume that Magus increased as much as Crono did between 2003 and 2004, and that Kekfa will end up with a percentage of say, 68.56 and that Luca stayed the same, that gives us an extrapolated rating for Kefka of:


25.49%

The exact same as Dante.

Even if he drops all the way to 65%, he still gets 22.9%, right between Luigi and KOS-MOS.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:23:31 AM | Message Detail
I was one arguing for SFF in Magus/Luca. Perhaps Luca did rSFF Magus, what with Luca being the much bigger badass villainous type character. Not impossible, but certainly not something I would hang my hat on. And with that, I am going to go for a stroll in real life to purchase the flame shield I am going to need to fend off Ulti for said comment.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostrea Din Tei for Trivia XV
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:31:45 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger sold millions. That alone means it isn't cult. It had a ton of features in Nintendo Power, and was a popular pick in their awards issue for that year. On the internet, it was the most popular game until the PS1 brought new fans to the online community. I swear to God, I started conversations with complete strangers about Chrono Trigger, when I was still in high school. For instance, some girl would see me reading about Ayla's charms during C++ class and we would talk about CT, or someone would hear me talking about it with a friend and join in on the conversation.

Wow, I'm sure glad everyone's life is exactly like yours, especially since I've never met anyone IRL who's even heard of Chrono Trigger, let alone played it.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:32:58 AM | Message Detail
Yeah man, I myself have never met anyone who's played Mario. It's totally cult.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:34:52 AM | Message Detail
Seriously guys. You picked the wrong person to argue about video games with.

Are you referring to me or you?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:37:07 AM | Message Detail
I disagree, and I actually have evidence backing me up. There's sales figures, CT's popularity online and it's great performances in game contests (2nd place at GameFAQs, beating FF7 at Gamespot), and the fact that it actually got sequels that also performed well.

...Meaning it's got one pseudo-sequel that was released only in Japan and another pseudo-sequel which received mixed reviews.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:37:26 AM | Message Detail
Perhaps Luca did rSFF Magus, what with Luca being the much bigger badass villainous type character.

*loads shotgun*

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:38:58 AM | Message Detail
...Meaning it's got one pseudo-sequel that was released only in Japan and another pseudo-sequel which received mixed reviews.

I will agree that Chrono Trigger is cult (internet popularity =/= mainstream popularity), but I still say you're way off in calling Metroid cult.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:40:36 AM | Message Detail
Funny thing is that I've met a lot more people in person who have played Chrono Trigger than Metroid.

Then again, I know weird people.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:44:39 AM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy VII got the genre out from being cult in the US, but there were certainly individual RPGs that weren't cult in the US before FF7. Dragon Warrior, Final Fantasy, FFIV, and FFVI among them.

DRAGON WARRIOR? POPULAR? The game that sold so poorly Nintendo had to give it away with NP subscriptions?

Final Fantasy sold a bit better and found a small niche in the market, but it was far from popular.

FFIV did about as well as the original, and FFVI even sold decently, but it was still vastly eclipsed in popularity by other SNES games.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:46:12 AM | Message Detail
The best-selling RPG before FFVII was definitely Super Mario RPG. It actually did quite well in the US.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 6:51:23 AM | Message Detail
...and Dragon Warrior is not cult. >_<

It may be the most popular series in Japan, but in the US, it's sold poorly and been quite niche. DW is cult.

However, it looks as though with DQVIII, SE is finally attempting to get the series out of that niche, with graphics that are finally up to today's standards and more accessible gameplay.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:10:11 AM | Message Detail
This is a downright embarrassing performance by Wesker, by the way. Is it not possible that having a decent pic has helped Kefka?

'Cause it certainly can't hurt him, and I have a hard time believing that Mithos would beat Wesker.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:30:36 AM | Message Detail
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:10:11 AM | #263
This is a downright embarrassing performance by Wesker, by the way. Is it not possible that having a decent pic has helped Kefka?

'Cause it certainly can't hurt him, and I have a hard time believing that Mithos would beat Wesker.


2004 stats would like a word with you. It was already projected that the two would have a ridiculously close fight.

Anyway, I want to see the afterschool vote. Kefka did pretty decent against Mithos until halfway through the poll.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:36:06 AM | Message Detail
Uhh, which two, Slow? Wesker and Kefka or Wesker and Mithos?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:38:05 AM | Message Detail
Appreciate it Tnote.

I was saying for the past few days I thought Mithos would wind up doing better against Kefka than Wesker would have, sprite pic or not. However, I have to question Wesker/Luca a lil' bit...I believe some major foddor/major fodder matches can skew the results noticably (I think Bowser in 2k4 was supposed to get 90% on Guybrush thanks to Ryo/Guybrush in 2k2, for example). I don't know if I think Luca/Wesker had Wesker or Luca doing better than expected yet, but right now I'm thinkin' Wesker's closer to Luca than their match indicated, much like how Guybrush was closer to Ryo than their match indicated...

...plus, Luca/Wesker have pitiful vote totals. That naturally was gonna sand-bag him a lil' more against Kefka.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:50:19 AM | Message Detail
According to my random pointless calculations, Kefka would be projected to get around 46% on Diablo if Ridley is roughly equal to Mother Brain.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:58:04 AM | Message Detail
If I'm right about the Luca-VS-Wesker match and/or Ridley is stronger than Mother Brain, then Diablo very well could win by more than that. Likewise, the more over-rated Liquid is in the stats, the more Diablo's advantage there disappears.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 7:59:21 AM | Message Detail
Damn you Solid **** for creating this doubt.
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:06:08 AM | Message Detail
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:36:06 AM | #265
Uhh, which two, Slow? Wesker and Kefka or Wesker and Mithos?

The latter.

I think Bowser in 2k4 was supposed to get 90% on Guybrush thanks to Ryo/Guybrush in 2k2, for example

No. Bowser got about what he was expected to get. LINK is supposed to get 90%.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 22/24 - Matches: 18/20 - Rank: 00329/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Ridley
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:39:22 AM | Message Detail
After checking for myself, you're right; I remember hearing it like it was fact awhile back, so I took whoever's word for it about Bowser gettin' 90%. Regardless though, the main point's that Ryo and Guybrush are much further apart in 2k2 when they faced off than in 2k4 when they were indirectly compared; Guybrush would supposedly get 41.26% on Ryo in 2k4 as opposed to the 28.56% he got on him in 2k2. There may have been something of this nature with Luca/Wesker.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:56:41 AM | Message Detail
I can't wait until a summer contest post Twilight Princess. Link is going to murder people.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:57:47 AM | Message Detail
I'm off to work...it's lookin' like Wesker will be very very VERY lucky to just not be doubled here, and he may or may not even get back above 30% if the dayvote doesn't go his way.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:59:16 AM | Message Detail
Guybrush would supposedly get 41.26% on Ryo in 2k4 as opposed to the 28.56% he got on him in 2k2.
I think it's because Ryo Hazuki was actually stronger in 2K2. Guybrush' was measured to be almost exactly the same in 2K2 as in 2K4. I couldn't buy 2 matches going weird (Ryo/Guybrush and Crono/Lara) just to try to explain Ryo Hazuki.

Anyway, I'm not surprised at this matches' results. I could've seen anywhere from a 58-70% victory, and it turns out Kefka got the high end of ithat. I think Luca Blight has very dilligent fans, and would rank better facing strong opponents. Right now Luca Blight's at about 11% against '03 Link if Kefka's the same as his 20XX-adjusted value last year.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 8:59:51 AM | Message Detail
Link already murders people enough. Geez, what more do you want, a 60% victory over Cloud?
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:00:51 AM | Message Detail
Back to the biggest spoilers out there, here's the five biggest in my opinion.

*SPOILERS FOR METROID, FFVII, OoT, FFX, and CT*



















1. Samus is a woman.
2. Zelda is Sheik (at least until SSBM...)
3. Aeris dies.
4. Sin is Jecht.
5. Magus isn't a villain.



















*END SPOILERS*
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:03:25 AM | Message Detail
Just wanted to point out that from this time of the day, Kefka lost 3% against Mithos.
Assuming he drops by that much again today, Wesker would be supposed to get 55-56% on 2k4 Luca, which considering Kefka's picture and normal variation is quite close to what we'd expect...
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SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:05:00 AM | Message Detail
What if Kefka goes UP as the day goes on...

It could happen dammit!
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:06:04 AM | Message Detail
Only spoiler #3 is really significant. #4 is found out very early in the game, and the others virtually everyone knows, anyway.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:08:31 AM | Message Detail
Only spoiler #3 is really significant. #4 is found out very early in the game, and the others virtually everyone knows, anyway.

Everyone knows Spoiler #3 too. Just because people know them doesn't make them any less significant.
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:12:14 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:13:10 AM | Message Detail
I'll wait until a few more posts are made before I post it, as I don't want spoilers right in front of everyone's face as they click on a new page. :P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:14:13 AM | Message Detail
Read a few pages back. Lucid Faia defends the Samus spoiler better than I ever could in my current sick condition.
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:19:57 AM | Message Detail
Bah, I forgot about guides and such showing the FF7 spoiler. Back in the day, yeah, Samus being a female was a huge spoiler, bigger than the FF7 ever was. Now, leave GameFAQs and I think (HOPE) that more people would know the Metroid spoiler (wait, it's not a spoiler now) than the FF7 spoiler.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Melee Master89 | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:26:55 AM | Message Detail
*spoiler for SMB*




The princess is NOT in the first 7 castles!
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"Jesus would wield nothing, he'd just die for your sins. Then he'd spawn again a few seconds later in some cave" - Going Incognito on 'WWJ Wield'
From: sidharta | Posted: 5/23/2005 9:47:18 AM | Message Detail
The analysis for Bison vs. Diablo will be interesting.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:05:07 AM | Message Detail
Only spoiler #3 is really significant. #4 is found out very early in the game, and the others virtually everyone knows, anyway.

That's like saying Darth Vader being Luke's father isn't significant because everybody knows it.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:06:59 AM | Message Detail
And one day after Liquid/Lavos makes it look like there was no need for the 20XX adjustment, Kefka seems to be making his argument that there was.

Assuming that this is a legitimate increase (as in, nothing weird is going on with this match) and Crono got the same percentage increase this summer, where would that put him?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: voltch | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:11:24 AM | Message Detail
i just logged on and why is wesker being beaten worse than mithos
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:12:35 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:13:36 AM | Message Detail
Very close to Sephiroth, but I don't know why Kefka = Crono.

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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:14:15 AM | Message Detail
Very close to Sephiroth, but I don't know why Kefka = Crono.

Because they seem to be getting sizable gains each year from out of nowhere.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:19:36 AM | Message Detail
I can't wait until a summer contest post Twilight Princess. Link is going to murder people.

How much stronger could Link possibly get? If the game is released around contest-time, then yes, I can see him getting a bit of a boost just from the increased Zelda site traffic. But for people that currently wouldn't vote for Link, even with games like LttP, OoT, and SSB in his pocket, I don't see why a new game would make that much of a difference. If anything, I think that having a new title out there just keeps Link from (*gasp*) showing any sign of decline for another year or two.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:23:32 AM | Message Detail
What large gains? 2002 is obviously screwed up since Link SFFed Mario to some degree. I dont know what to get from 2003. I think the support that was keeping Mario > Crono, cracked. We have no idea what happenend to Mega Man. Samus jumped ahead of Crono. He did gain on Sephiroth, but basically stayed constant to Link.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:24:57 AM | Message Detail
2002 is obviously screwed up since Link SFFed Mario to some degree

Says who? 2003 Mario is practically even with 2002 Mario.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:25:18 AM | Message Detail
Having fun with the extrapolated standings...

As of right now (70.32-29.68)
Sephiroth : 42.40%
Kefka: 25.84%
Mithos: 18.62%
Wesker: 15.34%
Ramirez: 13.82%
Luca: 12.35%

Assuming Kefka drops to 68%
Sephiroth : 42.40%
Kefka: 23.97%
Mithos: 17.27%
Wesker: 15.34%
Ramirez: 13.82%
Luca: 12.35%

And assuming Sephiroth got SFF'd last year and is at 46% instead of 42.40%
Sephiroth: 46.00%
Kefka: 23.97%
Mithos: 17.27%
Wesker: 15.34%
Ramirez: 14.99%
Luca: 12.35%

The point: Mithos should rank higher than Ramirez, there's no doubt about that; right now, ToS >>> SoA in terms of popularity here. Today's match might be the first one we really see Kefka's strength, as his only previous matches were Lettuce Kefka'd or against Crono...

From there, I fail to see how Kefka is gaining...
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SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:26:35 AM | Message Detail
i just logged on and why is wesker being beaten worse than mithos

The sad part is this is going to make Luca Blight look horrible once the final X-Stats are released. I hate to say it: but Luca is official contest fodder.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
Contest Stats: 19/22 Next Winner: Liquid Snake
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:26:51 AM | Message Detail
That third chart is very arbitrary anyway.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:27:22 AM | Message Detail
but Luca is official contest fodder

Welcome to SC2K4.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/23/2005 10:27:40 AM | Message Detail
I think everyone is closer to Link due to how uncertain the contest was. Even then, Crono didnt gain so much as Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man dropped like rocks.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
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