Lara, methinks.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Hey guys, quick question.

We saw Mithos get 34% on Kefka last round, how do you think the big ToS characters would do in a Contest setting?

The three I can see possibly making it in are Lloyd, Kratos and Zelos. How would you rank the trio in possible Contest strength?
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Lavos vs. Liquid Snake - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (20/22)

Kratos is easily cooler then Lloyd but likely would suffer from magus syndrome, so Lloyd>Kratos>Zelos.
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Kratos>Lloyd>Zelos>=Sheena. Kratos is that popular I believe.

I don't see three ToS characters getting into the contest. Lloyd is practically a lock at this point, and probably Kratos will get in, too.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

It terms of contest strength:
Lloyd > Kratos > Zelos

Lloyd is the main character which is all but a gaurentee to be the strongest character. The parts where Zelos really shines are optional and can be difficult to get at without a walkthrough.

I'd put Lloyd at about Knuckles' level, Kratos at about Kefka and Zelos just above Viewtiful Joe. All based on the SFF-adjusted Summer 2k4 rankings.

And if Presea was in the contest she would lose in a close final against Link. >_>
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

And if Presea was in the contest she would lose in a close final against Link. >_>

This man knows what he's talking about.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

How weak does a character have to be in order for you to think they should be in the summer contest?

As long as the character breaks 24% against Sephiroth (20% against Link) I think they should be allowed to be in the next contest.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Fox isn't that much higher than CATS

Wrong...that's all.

Andross wouldn't have any trouble beating CATS.

I think I'd take Ansem over Andross, for what it's worth. Also for what it's worth, Andross gets 11.78% on Link if Bowser's steady from his 2k3/4 rank, which has him losing to CATS with 48.4% of the votes. I'm not saying CATS would win, but Andross would have many troubles beating CATS.

how do you think the big ToS characters would do in a Contest setting?

I think Lloyd will be just under KOS-MOS. Don't know about the rest.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

In the last 7 hours, Kefka has been no higher than 70.13% and no lower than 70.01% against Wesker.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Well, if HM calls me crazy for picking Ghaleon over Sigma then I feel very confident about my inevitable win. Of course, if you don't think it makes sense rememer that there have always been and always will be things about this popularity contest of ours that doesn't make sense. The star of Half-Life lost to a 4th rate DoA girl. Mario loses to Samus. A character that hasn't starred in a new game in 10 years gets better every year in the contest. Frankly, with a game like Mega Man, Imma go out on a limb and say on average 80% of the Robot Masters/Mavericks have more memorable fights than any end boss. That's bad news for Sigma and Wily... more so for Sigma. Regardless of whether it makes sense, Ghaleon would likely beat Sigma.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Kefka is being quite the beast. I'm hoping that he holds steady until he gets knocked out... unfortunately the Lettuce Kefka pic has to come in somewhere. Maybe, just maybe, this isn't picture related and Wesker is just that bad and Magus wasn't SFF'd >.>
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

So if there isn't a picture factor, assuming Luca/Magus was normal, where would this put Mithos?
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Sephiroth is good, if he wasn't good, sephiroth wouldn't have 8.000 fans around the world. ~Siimor11
ZSB [aX]

If there's no pic factor it puts Mithos about where we've speculated previously... Laharlish or so, ya?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

I would agree on that about the MMX series Mavericks, but not so much the MM series Robot Masters. Most of the original Robot Masters were honestly quite bland, and if you had the right weapon, the fight was over in a flash. Heck, I died fighting Wily so many times, forcing me to beat all 8 Robot Masters on the last Wily Level over and over that most of the fights were over really quickly, with me taking little or no damage.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

X3 Sigma and MM7 Wily were two of the most memorable boss fights for me.
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SpC2k5: 22/24 Next up: Kefka, Ridley >_>, Ganondorf, Robotnik
*is Janus5000*

Yeah, but I only really remember one Wily battle... the one where Top Man's attack is actually useful. Robot Masters, though, I could probably name a half a dozen off the top of my head that were memorable to me (and that's if we don't count the original 6 Robot Masters who hold a special place in my memory)
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Kefka 70.11% 49078
Wesker 29.89% 20922
TOTAL VOTES 70000
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I'd likely side with Sigma in a Sigma/Ghaleon match like HM is, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ghaleon win that...at all. That match sounds like toss-up material to me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

So if there isn't a picture factor, assuming Luca/Magus was normal, where would this put Mithos?

But if there isn't a pic factor, then doesn't that mean that Luca/Magus wasn't normal?

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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Let's wait and see if Kefka is the new Crono before we go off half-cocked on that issue, okazy-dokazy?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

I just cannot possibly fathom Andross/CATS or Sigma/Ghaleon going into Ghaleon or CATS' favor. Those two matches just seem blatantly obvious to me and I would completely **** the stats in such matches. This is such an occasion where I would loathe them.



And tomorrow, I went higher than everyone in the Oracle challenge at 65% for Diablo and went with the spread of greater than 63%. I think Diablo is perfectly capable of putting up these numbers, too.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

Who actually expected CATS to bring Ansem to the brink? When CATS is up against other fodder he proved he can win. I think he could beat Andross.

"Those two matches just seem blatantly obvious to me"

Which way did you go on Kuja/MH? You seeing my point here? Blatantly obvious to our sensibilities =/= win.

(and yes, props to the guys who saw it when I and most of the rest of us didn't)
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

i think Diablo could break 60%, but i'm guessing that Bison will be pretty close to Ridley. so, i'm banking on Diablo winning with between 55 and 58%.


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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
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Ansem ended that match with 54% of the vote. There's no doubt in my mind that Andross would not have a problem doing the same thing to CATS. I would take Andross over Ansem and wouldn't have a problem taking Andross over CATS. There's little reason for me to side with CATS. Hell, Ansem's ending percentage was only 6% from what I had originally predicted as it is. I don't know why people were thinking Ansem was going to be anything in the way of strength.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

then doesn't that mean that Luca/Magus wasn't normal?

Either that, or Link/Magus wasn't.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Is this some kind of record?
Check out the updates for Link vs. Ganondorf (SC2K4), as well.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Which way did you go on Kuja/MH? You seeing my point here? Blatantly obvious to our sensibilities =/= win.

Yes, and a match that was predicted to be close by nearly everyone turned out to be greatly into Diablo's favor after the first hour or so.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

I'll bet that Diablo would do better against Bison then Ridley so 60% is possble.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Unfortunately Sam would actually make the 2k3 Magus/Link match seem more "wrong".
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Ansem's ending percentage was only 6% from what I had originally predicted as it is. I don't know why people were thinking Ansem was going to be anything in the way of strength.

No one expected any strength from him. Just we didn't expect him to get the fight of his life from CATS either.

Honestly, unless there's a huge irregularity in the stats we didn't catch, they're pretty accurate in at least predicting the correct winner when dealing with a large enough gap.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Sigma around CATS doesn't signify some sort of problem to you? I cannot possibly imagine how that looks about right to anyone. Now, you certainly don't have to adjust them, but it just frustrates me like no other to see people just say, "Yeah, I guess that's the spot for him." It's like people completely lack the ability to judge things for themselves once the stats say something. They are far from perfect, especially at such low states.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

Sigma around CATS doesn't signify some sort of problem to you?

It just tells me that people don't really care about Sigma. Again, a Bowser increase is the only thing that would save him from a fate worse than CATS, and even then, he'll be lucky to be at Laharl's level.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

So you do know what I'm saying here, HM. Just because soemthing "feels" wrong doesn't mean that it is. Hell, look at this match... it's the only time in contest history that Kefka was doing something that "felt" right. This is what I've always expected of Kefka (okay, even if Luca is correct this is less than my original expectation of Kefka which would have him ahead of Squall), and he may never impress any of us like this again. It's an example of how rarely things go as many of us feel they should. Maybe you're right, maybe Andross would pull it off... but unless CATS somehow decreased in strength this year I just don't think your gut feelings override the raw data we've got.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Bah, whatever. I'm through with the conversation at this point.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

Kefka doing this well is rather disgusting, to be honest.

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“But though we strike at you from the shadows, do not think that we lack the courage to stand in the light.”
- Zeratul

After looking into this match.

If Sephiroth 2k4=2k5
and if Kefka 2k4=2k5 (adjusted)

If Wesker finishes with exactly 30%. By the end of the contest Luca would get 12.08% against Link. In 2k4 he was expected to get 12.35%. Not much of a difference.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Yes, this contest rarely makes sense, so just saying something "looks wrong" doesn't mean a thing. It wouldn't be the first time, and several times they've been shown to be right anyway.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I'm giving Sigma some benefit of the doubt when I say I'd barely take Sigma over Ghaleon, and I'm giving Andross some benefit of the doubt when I say Andross would struggle to beat CATS. I'm listenin' to more than the stats here; in terms of contest strength, Sigma bombed like only 9/11 can compare with, and Andross lost to Sigma. I feel no more credit is deserved than what I'm already giving them.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

"Sigma around CATS doesn't signify some sort of problem to you?"

If you'd have asked me at the beginning of the contest I wouldn't think Sigma placing near but above CATS would be in any way worng.

"I cannot possibly imagine how that looks about right to anyone."

I expected him to suck, and I knew I was right when I saw what he did (and more importantly didn't do) to Andross.

"Now, you certainly don't have to adjust them"

Gods no, look at hte mess that we have on our hands from the last time that was done. Right or wrong, adjustements shouldn't be done unless there is very solid evidence to back it up. After 3 years of contests I still don't think we have enough for most of the sitations that'll occur in the summer, let alone with a bunch of unkowns like these.

"but it just frustrates me like no other to see people just say, "Yeah, I guess that's the spot for him.""

I've been saying since the beginning that there was no way I'd put Sigma in the top 10 for this contest. SUre, I also said I'd put Ansem ahead of him (hey, don't blame me, I've never gotten further than cracking Riku over the head witha stick), but as expected Sigma is a speck of nothing.

"It's like people completely lack the ability to judge things for themselves once the stats say something."

I'll say it one more time since you haven't caught it in my previous posts and may not recognize it in this one: From the beginning I called Sigma as a nobody.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Assuming Bowser and Sephiroth are stable at their 2004 levels, Sigma is at 13.58% on 2003 Link, while Ghaleon is at 14.02%. Sigma certainly could win, but he certainly could lose, too. Same with Andross/CATS, though the margin is a bit larger there.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Oh, and stats or no I'd have put Ghaleon over Sigma to begin with.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Congrats to Kefka on breaking 50,000 votes for the first time in his contest career.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Rawr
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The gathering of the Knights of the North has begun...
Jesus is awesome!

Any chance of Wesker taking Kefka under 70% is pretty much gone unless he makes a big night push.

DICUSSION'D
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I never would have expected Kefka to do so well in this match...

===
Will the PS3's cost just climb too high...?!
Albedo and I got PSYCHO CRUSHER'D by M.Bison and PepsiPlunge.

almost 500
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anyone who knows the Batman movies knows that when you add nipples..... everything just falls apart ~ ribbit

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing over half of the brackets that Ridley could win.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman