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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 128
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:54:34 PM | Message Detail
Yet Bowser and Ness have much less of an over-lap, and we saw what Bowser did there. Link and Yoshi have much less of an over-lap, and we saw what Link did there. I still say Ganon noticably SFF's MH.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:56:01 PM | Message Detail
If Mega Man's unadjusted number is right, then that means he got a small amount of SFF on Zero because they're close together. The same may apply to Yoshi/Bowser.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:56:56 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi may have been SFF'd by Bowser, but from what I understand, his match against Luigi was still very close to how the match was expected to go. I believe if there was SFF, there wouldn't be much to shake our world, and until further notice I think it was minimal at best.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:57:55 PM | Message Detail
Well, who's to say Luigi didn't increase in 2004?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:58:58 PM | Message Detail
How exactly do we know Yoshi wasn't SFF'd again?

He got 44%. Any SFF couldn't be that all that significant no matter what.
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From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:59:09 PM | Message Detail
Porcupine Lavos>>>>Imperfect Cell Lavos?

I think he may be stronger due to the the more recognizable pic.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:00:16 PM | Message Detail
In proportion with Yoshi's SFF? In the same way Tidus dropped in proportion for whatever reason with Shadow because of Mario anti-votes? It's possible, but I don't see it being likely and I don't believe in it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:01:14 PM | Message Detail
He got 44%. Any SFF couldn't be that all that significant no matter what.

Yes, just like Zero. He would be expected to get around 47-48% on an unadjusted 2004 Mega Man based on his 2003 number. It would be enough to give Yoshi a nice boost.

And yes, I think it's possible that Lavos might be doing better due to a more recognizable picture. I know some people suggested that Ocelot would do better with a young version picture for those who'd only played MGS3.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:02:17 PM | Message Detail
In proportion with Yoshi's SFF? In the same way Tidus dropped in proportion for whatever reason with Shadow because of Mario anti-votes?

We're not talking a percentage anywhere NEAR that high. It'd be much more likely.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:02:31 PM | Message Detail
Deth may be onto something; I wasn't gonna vote for something I had never seen before against Mother Brain, even if I knew what Lavos was and had played his game (never finished it though, thus why I didn't recognize it). We also talk about how Albedo's likely weak 'cuz it takes so long to see him, yet you almost can't see Cell-Lavos without beating the game.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:04:23 PM | Message Detail
More likely doesn't mean it is likely though. It's possible, but I think Yoshi had enough going for him to prevent being SFF'd by Bowser any more than minimally.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:04:24 PM | Message Detail
The difference is Albedo as a character doesnt appear until late. The name Lavos is throughout CT. Even if you didnt recognize the pic, the name should of tipped you off.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:06:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, I wouldn't be all that surprised if people thought it was a different Lavos because the shell looks NOTHING like that.

...What? How are they gonna know there isn't a different one?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:06:35 PM | Message Detail
Which leads us to tomorrow's match with Kefka; it'll be interesting to see if a sprite pic actually helps him or not since that's when he's most recognizable, yet it's also his final form like Cell-Lavos is. At least it'll be better than lettuce or that 3D rendered woman-clown pic.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:10:08 PM | Message Detail
>_>...

Kekfa looks rather....FAAAAABULOUS in his pic.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:12:33 PM | Message Detail
Lavos' first-round pick wasn't his final form.

Kefka's second-round pic is truly badass. Wesker doesn't have a chance in hell.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:13:57 PM | Message Detail
Next-to-last form then? I know it's right towards the very end of the game and one of the final fights.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:14:40 PM | Message Detail
You fight the final form of Lavos in a time warp. He has three parts.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:19:01 PM | Message Detail
I think it got over-looked completely, so I'll ask one more time: Lavos or Master Hand, who wins?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:19:29 PM | Message Detail
Lavos.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:19:35 PM | Message Detail
Master Hand.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:20:09 PM | Message Detail
Lavos, easily. If you want to talk about characters leeching votes just based on their game, CT > SSBM here.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:23:14 PM | Message Detail
I think Lavos would win. If Master Hand manages to break 60-65% on Robotnik, I'd probably jump ship to Master Hand.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 2:26:10 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Lavos, but not easliy by any means. Yes, CT > SSBM here, but SSB is also on its side...I know CC can help CT's case, but since I think SSB > CC in the same way CT > SSBM, they essentially cancel out. From there, we don't know how over-rated Liquid is here (if he is at all), so it's really tough to say for me...Lavos is just the instinct I have here. I might change my mind once Robo/MH comes along, but until then, I think it'd be a rough one to predict.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: cyko | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:20:44 PM | Message Detail
Which leads us to tomorrow's match with Kefka; it'll be interesting to see if a sprite pic actually helps him or not since that's when he's most recognizable, yet it's also his final form like Cell-Lavos is. At least it'll be better than lettuce or that 3D rendered woman-clown pic.

i've said that for two years, now!!! and i stand by it, too. i honestly think that Kefka will be at least a little stronger, due to a more recognizable and much cooler pic. angel Kefka has much more casual appeal than the evil clown face or Lettuce Kefka. this match will help prove whether or not the pic factor really exists. if Kefka beats Wesker by more than he did Mithos, then i think it is undeniable.

and how messed up would it be, if after finally getting a decent pic, Ceej decides to use Lettuce Kefka for the next round pic. >_<


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From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:22:04 PM | Message Detail
Lavos vs. Master Hand? Lavos, no question.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:25:50 PM | Message Detail
Yes. Tomorrow will give us a good idea of whether or not the match pic really does make a difference. If it does, then Kefka's true strength still hasn't been seen yet. It also means that a lot of match outcomes were changed solely because of the picture.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:25:51 PM | Message Detail
Is Angel Kefka gonna be much better than the other Kefka's we've seen though, with all this Lavos talk, or would normal Kefka be his best one?

Plus, I think Kefka's gonna barely beat Wesker worse than Mithos anyways, pic or no.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:26:32 PM | Message Detail
The general consensus a couple years ago was that Kefka's laughing sprite would be the best possible picture he could get.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:27:31 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Kefka's picture is going to do much for him. Yes, it may increase his strength a little bit, but it isn't going to be a large difference. But I'm resting pretty well knowing that he isn't getting out of that division, picture or not.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:28:27 PM | Message Detail
That sprite of Kefka would be the best picture he could get, for the sole fact that you see him as that for a majority of the game. But he wouldn't receive any sort of large boost in strength because of it.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:28:46 PM | Message Detail
Agreed. Diablo has the division.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:29:38 PM | Message Detail
Bingo, Lucid.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:31:30 PM | Message Detail
Im still not sleeping on Bison. There is just too big of a range that Albedo can fit in for Bison to be swept aside.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:31:36 PM | Message Detail
It's Ridley, fools! </denial>

...Diablo is likely gonna keep me from a perfect bracket too; Robo/MH is the only other match that could.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:39:33 PM | Message Detail
The way I see it, it's Diablo versus Not... nevermind. Bison's obviously no pushover, but he's going up against Diablo, which means the end of the line for Mike Bison.

By the way, I'll be very surprised if I don't get a perfect bracket. My alt is perfect so far, with Diablo over Kefka, Ganon over Master Hand, and Bowser over Ocelot. Obviously, I have Seph over Ganon in the finals. All of those predictions look very good at the moment.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: MyWorldIsSNES | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:42:26 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: MyWorldIsSNES | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:45:13 PM | Message Detail
By the way, we're closing in on June. Wasn't CJayC going to have the nominations for Summer sometime soon?

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A Lucid Mind
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:46:02 PM | Message Detail
You might want to wait until this contest actually ends before talking about the nominations for the next contest. Not to mention that we might be having a break in between this contest and the nominations.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:46:38 PM | Message Detail
Within the next two weeks if it starts in July.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: MyWorldIsSNES | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:49:30 PM | Message Detail
I hope we don't have an extended break like the last time. Didn't the last Summer Contest last until late September? =\

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A Lucid Mind
2005 Spring Contest Score: Perfect
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:51:27 PM | Message Detail
The Summer Contest did seem to start late last time.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:51:45 PM | Message Detail
Yep. I think Cloud/Link took place on the first of October.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:52:10 PM | Message Detail
It started in August last year and didn't end 'til the first week of October.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 5/22/2005 4:25:35 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, this is off topic, but most of you aren't idiots, and if you'd like to partake in video game trivia as part of a team every saturday and sunday at 4 PM EST, and will actually show up consistantly, even if you suck go here and signup:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579093&topic=21122354

Anyway, it's all for replacements so 13 spots are open, 7 of which have been signed up for already. The draft will be Friday night, so if you can be there on a consistant bases, go signup.

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Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:03:17 PM | Message Detail
I don't believe this...but according to what we have thus far in the contest and if Lavos stays at 43.67% on Liquid while the adjusted stats are right...that puts Mother Brain at 23.11%, above Luigi. Sure, Samus could have been SFF'd in 2k3 and the already-questionable Yoshi could have given some SFF to him in 2k4 before getting SFF'd the next round, but I don't buy that and think there's a better explanation; as we've already discussed, I believe Liquid's got to be over-rated from one way or another after this. I don't mind whether Ridley's stronger than MB not, I don't care that Lavos is currently between Kirby and Dante, and I have no major side on the issue about the Link/MM or Frog/Solid matches...but Mother Brain > Luigi can't be right. Period.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:06:57 PM | Message Detail
Ruin Division: Round 2 - Match 21 – (1)Kefka vs. (4)Wesker

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka - Lettuce remind you of the fact that he does not deserve a 1-seed.
Round 1 – vs. Mithos (Kefka: 63.98% - Mithos: 36.02%)

Kefka shows his lack of strength there...

Wesker - Because Albert just doesn’t sound bad enough.
Round 1 – vs. Luca (Wesker: 59.74% - Luca: 40.26%)

Luca is just that weak folks, Wesker has no troubles here.

Back to Ruin, and man is this sad. Kefka is looking like he’s actually going to win another match! Yes, after getting only 64% on Mithos, Kefka will still find a way into Round 3.

Wesker, who faced Luca last round, didn’t beat him by a good enough margin. Folks, Luca is bottom of the barrel fodder, and Wesker didn’t even break 60% on him. If I calculated right, Luca wouldn’t even get 30% on Kefka in 2004.

Now, I thought Wesker over Kefka was a silly upset pick to begin with, but now that risk isn’t even looking like it’s possible. Congrats Kefka, you somehow managed to get to the finals of your division.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kefka will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kefka 58% - Wesker 42%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'd love to make this a long writeup, but thanks in part to my laziness, my fatigue, my lack of reliable internet access, and Wesker's absolute choke job against Luca Blight, this can be summed up
very easily.

Yes, Kefka stunk it up against Mithos. But Wesker stunk it up far worse against Blight. If you compare the two performances, Kefka is projected to get something like 60% in this match. I don't think he'll get that much given his knack for telling the Xsts to go and screw themselves in all of his matches (when has Kefka EVER done what he was supposed to do?), but the odds of Wesker pulling this thing off are next to zero. Kefka may be a weak bastard, but he's in a division of rats and slugs. He can manage.

Prediction: Kefka with 57.36%



Soul’s Analysis

Another match that is being somewhat hyped. For what reason, I don't know. Kefka is a weak number 1 seed. Before the contest, Wesker probably had a shot of defeating him. But after seeing both first round matches, Kefka looks stronger than Wesker. Expect the over-seeded Kefka to win with 54%.



Outback’s Analysis

Empire music plays...

This match is one that was debated before the contest even started. How strong is Mithos? How strong is Wesker? Did Luca get RPGSFF agains Magus (also, wtf at this)? Well, after Kefka's not-dominating-but-certainly-not-weak peformance against Mithos and Wesker's lackluster performance against who I think is a much weaker opponent, the pick is easy for me. Even without my bias towards Kefka...

Kefka 59.98 Wesker 40.02



Inviso’s Analysis

Well…this is the first match that I’ve had to predict against my bracket in this contest. I, sadly, had Wesker winning this match. But after his performance against Luca Blight, I think it’s safe to say that his chances of making it to the next round are no more than 20%. Kefka may be weak as hell, but Wesker is just weaker sadly. It sucks such total ass that this match up is going to turn out the way it will…but, there’s nothing I can do about it.

If Wesker does win, it doesn’t really matter, since I had Ridley in the final 4 and Kuja in the sweet 16.

My Prediction: Kefka with 55.78%

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Lavos vs. Liquid Snake - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (20/22)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:12:56 PM | Message Detail
but Mother Brain > Luigi can't be right. Period.

Can I ask what the hell is the obsession with people and not putting characters above Luigi?

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:17:39 PM | Message Detail
I'm surprised Lavos is still doing so well. I thoguht he'd be lucky to keep 40% before the night vote came into effect.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:22:47 PM | Message Detail
I can't understand what's so wrong about putting mother brain so high. With Samus doing so well, and Metroid games being powerful enough in their own right in these contests, I don't see why it's so hard to believe that metroid villains aren't total pushovers.
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