I'm pleasantly surprised. My bracket confidence has been increasing over the past few days to the point where I'm happy with all of my choices besides Robotnik.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I'm pleasantly surprised. My bracket confidence has been increasing over the past few days to the point where I'm happy with all of my choices besides Robotnik.

Same here. Of course, you and I have the exact same bracket.

My alt, however, is well on the way to a perfect score.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Stupid Master Hand ruined everything. Shocked to see Lavos breaking 40%. Think Liquid will be at least doubled next round. Think Diablo (or Bison) might actually be able to break 45% on Ganondorf. Think Master Hand will do the same. Wait, did I just type that? Think I need to go vomit now.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostrea Din Tei for Trivia XV

If Lavos stays at 42.64%, the adjusted stats from 2k4 are accurate, and Mother Brain = Ridley...that puts Diablo over Kirby.

Just gonna add onto this, assuming this is true; for M. Bison to beat Diablo, Albedo gets 16.82% on Link (37.21% on KOS-MOS before SFF)...for comparison purposes, Laharl gets 14.25% on Link.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

With SFF, Master Hand's not breaking 35% and will be oh-so lucky to not get doubled if he gets to face Ganon.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

If SFF is to ever go the other way, I have a feeling Ganondorf would be prominently involved in it. I know Ness/Bowser went Bowser's way, but Bowser has personality. Ganondorf is so very otherwise uninspiring. And by then, Master Hand will have the Starcraft 'OMG its a crappy seed WIN WIN WIN' thing going for him/her/it.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Team Dragostrea Din Tei for Trivia XV

No character mentioned is going to come close to touching Ganon. Like I previously mentioned, there isn't a character in his division that will prevent him from getting 70%.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

Ganon would break every bone in Master Hand's hand. I hope that match does not take place not only for my bracket's sake, but because the Extrapolateds would be a mess.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Ganon will at least triple Master Hand. If there were ever a case for Link/Ganon like SFF, that is it.
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Current contest score: 15/16
ZSB [aX]

Should Master Hand crack 35% on Ganon, this will show that MH is both stronger than KOS-MOS (which makes him close to Luigi) and backed by a solid fan-base. No matter how bad Ganon was SFF'd by Link, you would be mistaken if you don't think he could dish out some SFF in his advantage. If he had faced Ness in 2k3 instead of Bowser, Ness would have looked even worse...then Ganon would have likely SFF'd Yoshi a lil' bit too.

Does anybody really think Master Hand would rSFF Ganon? There would be no sense in it; MH is gonna have his strength, yes, but I think his fanbase will be less loyal against many characters than Ganon's fanbase was against Link. We talk about Ganon like he's dry and uninspiring, but he was cool in LoZ:WW and was important in the rest of the LoZ games...then he's in SSBM, too. MH will have a miracle on his side to even avoid SFF, much less pull some magical rSFF.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Ah, 'cuz I'm bored and some estimates actually have them both being really close to KOS-MOS...

...Lavos or Master Hand, who wins?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Wow, and Lavos is taking the day vote, too?! This will probably end up 57/43 at best...

Well, I can't buy Lavos being that strong (I never would've picked him over Vercetti, or Luigi, or DK...), so I'm blaming part of the result on Liquid NOT living up to his previous extrapolated value against '03 Link. Not sure how...I could blame it on the SSnake/Frog picture, I could blame it on LSnake's pic today, or on Mega Man's match against Link being accurate, or maybe Frog had a weak start in SC2K4...who knows.

I'm sure Ganondorf will SFF Master Hand if they meet up. That would suck to have that half division messed up by then. Fortunately, Lavos strength' could suggest Sin's strength, gives more hope for Robotnik beating Master Hand.

I know Ness/Bowser went Bowser's way, but Bowser has personality. Ganondorf is so very otherwise uninspiring.
Play Zelda: Wind Waker and you'll change your mind about Ganondorf. I wonder if Zelda: WW even made a difference with his popularity, though? :/

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"Don't change your tune just because of this one match"

I actually felt like it was possible for MB to be stronger to begin with.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Ganondorf is so very otherwise uninspiring.

He really isn't. He's an incredible villain, much moreso than almost everyone in this contest.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

Up until today, I've felt confident that Ridley > MB, though I don't think I ever thought he'd be much stronger than MB. Now though, I'm not so sure.

More stat-fun: assuming everything's accurate, Lavos stays at 42.89%, and Lavos = Sin...that puts Lavos a lil' above Dante (25.67%) and Dr. Robotnik at almost Kirby's level (26.67%). Should that be the case and Master Hand still beats Robo, that means Kuja is between Knuckles and Vercetti (24.66%).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

That'd make Lavos and Sin both above Dante, I should say.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

I think that should be enough to tell us that Liquid's 2004 number is probably wrong. Kefka/Wesker ought to tell us a bit more tomorrow, especially if Kefka has trouble hitting 60%.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Was the stats adjusted for Snakes horrible picture against Frog?

Anyways, I have a question for you guys. Who do you think would win between Alucard and Tidus?
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Nominate Christian for SC2K5!

Was the stats adjusted for Snakes horrible picture against Frog?

No, the entire 20XX Division was adjusted for Mega Man's whipping at the hands of Link. I'm not sure it was a good idea to automatically give the Blue Bomber his 2003 value anyway since that's the ONLY year we've had anything definite on him.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I pick Tidus every day of the week and twice on Meg Ryan's Birthday.

As for this match, well a few things.
1) Either Solid really got screwed with his pic againist Frog next time.

or

2) Lavos, Ridley, and Diablo are looking like people who should be given a shot in the Summer Contest.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Or 3) The 20XX Division never needed adjustment.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I'm rooting for Diablo because it will then make Ridley look strong like I had initially suggested. =p

But I'm starting to believe that Liquid's ranking in the X-sts isn't exactly what it should be. For whatever reason you want to attach to it. The adjustment of Mega Man probably should not have been so... large.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

I'd say M. Bison is about the same -- maybe a tiny bit stronger -- than Liquid Snake, and Ridley is considerably more popular than Mother Brain.
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Current Match Prediction -- Lavos vs. Liquid Snake
Spring 2005 Contest -- 21/22 points

who expected from day one for liquid to not flatten lavos.
also how much would lavos be able to get on frog
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Something really really weird happenend with the 20XX division between Mega Man bombing againist Link, Snake falling apart, and Tidus dissapearing againist Mega Man
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Fanboyism would compell me to take Alucard over Tidus.

I'll go with C, 20XX shouldn't have been adjusted.

And HM, you should just vote for Bison cause ya know you want to.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

But really, no matter how you slice it, Lavos is going to be stronger than Kefka, and by a good bit.

Assuming Lavos finishes at 43% at worst (and it'll probably be higher than that), he would be projected to beat Kefka with 58.78%.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

On Frog, about the exact same percent, but I expect SFF to make Frog's win bigger.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Lavos ranking ahead of Kefka is going to please me greatly. And I love what he is doing here today. He even overshot my initial prediction of 40%.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

And I find it awesome that two Metroid villains could turn out to be worth something in this contest.

---
“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

I'm hoping a lot of people who aren't so good with the contest took Lavos over LS here due to Frog beating him... think it's possible?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Heh. I never thought of that before, but I would imagine that it's a possibility...

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

Well atleast this match makes this contest interesting again. I cant wait to see what Bowser/Ocelot, Kefka/Diablo-MBison, and Gannon/MHand-Robotnik produces.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

When one looks at the prediction percentages from the previous round, I'd imagine that a majority would side with Liquid, which of course makes Lavos look even more impressive.
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"How strong is that exoskeleton of yours?" - Liquid Snake

Bowser and Ganon's matchups are rather easy to find out what will happen.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

Also, note that if Liquid's unadjusted number is the right one, Lavos falls at 23.10% on Link, still even above Kefka's ADJUSTED value.

Anyone think it's possible that the possible Solid/Liquid set up might have resulted in a Liquid overperformance? I mean, we saw Ken take a huge dive in 2003 when he was set up to face Ryu in the second round in 2002. Who knows?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I know Bowser and Gannon will win, but I want to know HOW MUCH.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I'll stand by what I said earlier, Ganon will not ever fall below 70% against his competitors. And I would imagine that Bowser won't do so either, although I want to put his lowest at 65% instead of 70%.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

Also add this to the theory that without a star character from a series, fans of the series will vote more heavily for the only character from the series in the contest.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Ganondorf did worse against Alucard than expected, even when he was even more set up to face Link than he was the year before. Plus, if we wanted to push our luck and be smart-asses about it, we could probably say Knuckles over-performed at least two years, too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Ganondorf did worse against Alucard than expected, even when he was even more set up to face Link than he was the year before

Once again, Alucard is underestimated by the 2003 stats. It's not a coincidence that he, along with Kirby and Bomberman (who just so happened to be in his four pack) experienced an increase of 2.5% or so (and even more for Bomberman).
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Also add this to the theory that without a star character from a series, fans of the series will vote more heavily for the only character from the series in the contest.

1) This is only Lavos's second match; let's see him in a contest with some other CT characters in it too.
2) Let's see how Bowser and Ganon do first, too.
3) I still think that's a load of bull as far as theories go until further notice.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

That wasn't Ganon's fault, Alucard was underestimated in the 2003 X-sts.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar

You've reminded me about that and Alucard at least twice now, and surely more. My bad, but that still doesn't help the set-up theory about how set-up matches would make Ganon stronger in that situation. You CAN argue that Ganon was set up in 2k3 too, which could be right, but this was absolute set-up at its finest; I believe only Solid/Raiden has it beat.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Oh, and Lavos cracks 43% too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman

Yeah CJayC fascination with SFF matchups didnt help anyone last year.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Ganondorf might be overestimated by the 2003 stats as well. It's certainly possible. It just depends on if this "set up" factor is viable. If Ganondorf and Liquid both turn out to be weaker than their numbers suggest, then we can explore that further.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Wow...I am truly surprised by this. I did not expect Lavos to be over 40% at all. And he's actually gaining and looks like he might break 44% by the time the match ends!

Always nice to see Chrono Trigger representing. I said before the contest that I could see Lavos>Kefka...but after Lavos/MB it's weird to think of Mother Brain being as high as that puts her. Though as many including myself have said for a while, she's recognizable; you can't miss a brain in a jar.

So by various adjustments, one can have various estimates for Liquid's strength. Let's say that Frog would've only gotten 40% on Snake instead of 48.61% because of the pic factor (being very liberal here). Liquid's unadjusted score in 2K4 was 26.94%, and his adjusted (through Mega Man) was 29.93%.

And let's also say that Sephiroth can have a strength between 42% and 48%. We get the following values for how much Sephiroth can get against Liquid Snake:

Unadjusted Liquid Snake:
With pic adjust, Strong Sephiroth: 76.9%
With pic adjust, Weak Sephiroth: 73.6%
No pic adjust, Strong Sephiroth: 71.9%
No pic adjust, Weak Sephiroth: 67.9%

Adjusted Liquid Snake:
With pic adjust, Strong Sephiroth: 74.3%
With pic adjust, Weak Sephiroth: 70.7%
No pic adjust, Strong Sephiroth: 68.8%
No pic adjust, Weak Sephiroth: 64.4%

A very wide range of values...64.4% to 76.9%. The pic adjustment here is the most extreme adjustment (.822 scalar), the others are lower (.875 scalar for Sephiroth's range, .9 scalar for Mega Man's adjustment).
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www.SC2K5.com

I believe that Master Hand may be somewhat strong. And I think there's a very good chance that he won't suffer too much SFF against Ganon--it's Ganon. Bowser didn't SFF Yoshi, and they overlap more than you think Ganon/MH would. I don't see Ganon's fanbase as being loyal enough to SFF Master Hand; and I see these characters as having very different appeal.

I could see Master Hand getting up to 35% against Ganon.
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www.SC2K5.com

How exactly do we know Yoshi wasn't SFF'd again?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?