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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 128
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:45:42 AM | Message Detail
...I cannot even dignify that with a response.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:46:47 AM | Message Detail
blizzard fanboys match up with final fantasy fanboys almost

... If only. If only. ='(

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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: Myst2 | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:47:42 AM | Message Detail
k heroic how about a sig bet about diablo vs gannondorf assuming gannondorf even GETS there
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"Actually I am quit smart"-chronoszero
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:48:34 AM | Message Detail
Wow.

A bet HM can win!

>_>
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:49:14 AM | Message Detail
k heroic how about a sig bet about diablo vs gannondorf assuming gannondorf even GETS there

X frikking D
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:49:15 AM | Message Detail
Um, are you really sure you want to do that?

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:50:06 AM | Message Detail
Don't do it HM it's too risky!
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L I T T L E M O N E Y
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/22/2005 1:54:18 AM | Message Detail
*waits*

>_>
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/22/2005 3:17:54 AM | Message Detail
Mumei, I haven't had a computer. My hard drive crashed, and I've just been touring every other comp on the house waiting for my future father in law (>_>) to do... whatever the heck he said he was going to do to extract the data from my old hard drive onto a new one. Something about hooking an old one up to the failed one or... something.

I hope he's able to do it, because I have a crapload of stuff on there, including my stat archive, my FAQs, a bunch of my reviews, the Rate the Game info, archived GF stuff.... more things I'm forgetting. Who knows. Oh, and 7 gigs of music.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/22/2005 4:26:09 AM | Message Detail
Color me surprised. Lavos actually breaking 40%? That'll rank him pretty high, as well as Mother Brain. Sheesh, if she's stronger than Ridley then there's a serious problem. Problem is, as of now MB will have to be A LOT stronger than Ridley if Diablo even wants to sweat a little inside of his division.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 20/22 - Matches: 17/19 - Rank: 00392/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/22/2005 4:27:15 AM | Message Detail
From: Myst2 | Posted: 5/22/2005 4:47:42 AM | #203
k heroic how about a sig bet about diablo vs gannondorf assuming gannondorf even GETS there

Man, now THAT's comedy. What the hell is going to stand in Ganondorf's way? Eggman? Master Hand? ANSEM?!?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 20/22 - Matches: 17/19 - Rank: 00392/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: voltch | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:04:29 AM | Message Detail
hey liquid's lead is steadily increasing anyone think he can break 60% now
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:21:32 AM | Message Detail
X-stats for Sephiroth's fourpack:

Sephiroth: 50.00%
Vergil: 21.19%
Ramirez: 16.30%
Ghaleon: 15.07%
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Spring Contest Score: 18/20
Today's Pick: Sephiroth
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/22/2005 5:58:15 AM | Message Detail
Well, well, well, this is quite the show Lavos. Looks like we underestimated you and Mother Brain.

It's still going to be weird seeing MB > Ridley in strength. Unless...Diablo was really a beast, but I doubt that.

Bah, we finally get some answers, but that only leads to more questions.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Lavos vs. Liquid Snake - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (20/22)
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 5/22/2005 6:24:14 AM | Message Detail
The plot thickens!
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As soon as I entered this topic, I farted. If this is a sign of things to come, I'm out. - HaRRicH
Dig Dug for SC2K5!
From: cyko | Posted: 5/22/2005 6:40:54 AM | Message Detail
well, Lavos is doing a bit better than i thought, too. hmph. well, here are some numbers for you:

IF Mother Brain = Ridley, then Diablo would be expected to bet 52.75% against Lavos. that means with Lavos currently at 42% against Liquid, Diablo would be expected to get 44.31% against Liquid. that translates to an x-stat value for Diablo of 26.52, which is roughly between Kirby and Dante. now, the stronger Ridley is, the higher Diablo's strength and number goes.

so, either Mother Brain really is stronger than Ridley OR Diablo is a legitimately strong character and both Bison and Kefka have no chance.

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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:03:57 AM | Message Detail
Can't I think that MB is stronger than Ridley, and Diablo is a powerhouse? >_> <_<

But in all seriousness, I remember getting SSB:M and watching the intro cutscene. They get to Samus' little part, and all of a sudden Ridley breaks through the wall and Samus, and Ridley start fighting. The entire time me and my brother saying WTF is that. Granted, my video game knowledge was less then, and my ignorance was higher, but so is the casual gamer. On the other side of it, if there was a huge jar with a brain sitting in it, I would of recognized it right away.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: kaonashi1 | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:14:30 AM | Message Detail
Egad. Liquid is dropping again. If he manages 58%, then Lavos ends up just above 25% on 2K4 Link, which is Yoshi/Vivi/Shadow/Knuckles territory. If he manages 60, Lavos ends up at almost 24%, which is about Vercetti level. If he manages 62%, then Lavos ends up at around 22.75%, which is between Luigi and KOS-MOS.

I refuse to believe Lavos is this strong. Either voting trends have changed significantly, or Liquid's current Xstat position is questionable.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:18:40 AM | Message Detail
Or maybe you guys fail to admit that the entire Liquid/Frog/Chief trio is massively overestimated by the Solid **** factor. Watching people throw around numbers as if they're absolute fact when there's a known anomaly in the stats is so unbelievably annoying to watch.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:21:25 AM | Message Detail
Hey Ulti, are you going to send me any analyses on the upcoming matches, or does no good computer = no analyses?
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Lavos vs. Liquid Snake - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (20/22)
From: kaonashi1 | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:24:54 AM | Message Detail
Hence why I say that his Xstat position is questionable. I'm not trying to claim that what I said is fact; I'm saying that with the current information we have at our disposal, that's how strong Lavos is predicted to be. While Xstats are certainly nowhere near certain in many cases, they do provide decent ballpark figures, which were what I was trying to give.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:24:59 AM | Message Detail
Don't worry, if he doesn't analyze, I'll guest analyze with 0 credability.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:39:05 AM | Message Detail
Who are you, and what did you do to Ulti? The real one would never put so much of an iota of credibility into a hindrance due to an 8-bit picture there was nothing wrong with in the first place.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 20/22 - Matches: 17/19 - Rank: 00392/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:45:01 AM | Message Detail
I think pictures matter to a degree when they are extremely unbalanced, especially late in a contest when one or both characters is likely to have a mass of support behind them.

Yeah Moltar, I'll write up a couple more tonight. I'll just write them in g-mail and send them away.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/22/2005 7:49:50 AM | Message Detail
Or maybe you guys fail to admit that the entire Liquid/Frog/Chief trio is massively overestimated by the Solid **** factor.

Didn't we have a Solid **** pic in 2k3. Let's take a look at the characters in Ryu's 4-pack

Ryu - He went up, probably because of SFAC
Duke - He also for some reason went up
Dante - He fell by about .85%.
Ryo - If 2k3=2k4 Yoshi then Ryo fell .2%, but because of SFF he's not that reliable

You yourself said that pictures mean nothing. I wouldn't drop Frog's 4-pack by more then 1%.
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:07:02 AM | Message Detail
Well nothing has happen that's changed the all time records except for Most Predictable (that's all that I'm showing you). Here's a list of what you have to atleast have to be in the all time records

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts - 74.08% or winner with 87.04%
Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps - 70809
Top 10 Closest Matches - 0.54% or winner with 50.27%
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps - 534
Top 10 Most Popular Polls - 113881
Top 10 Least Popular Polls - 56361
Top 10 Highest Individual Votes - 86938
Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes - 11292
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers - 50457
Top 10 Least Impressive Winners - 33602
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict - 96.32%
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict - 17.3%

All Time Records

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 99.1% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 99.02% - The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 98.0% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 97.75% - Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 97.41% - Sephiroth vs. Ramirez (I) from 2005 Spring Contest
6) 97.23% - Ganondorf vs. Giygas (I) from 2005 Spring Contest

7) 96.76% - Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 96.46% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 96.4% - Link vs. Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 96.32% - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:30:59 AM | Message Detail
So this means that Diablo has a very good chance against Bison? Fedor might actually lose after all...

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: MyWorldIsSega | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:31:59 AM | Message Detail
So this means that Diablo has a very good chance against Bison?

Hasn't he always?
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:33:29 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but before there where people here saying Bison would win.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:33:34 AM | Message Detail
I've stopped caring about my bracket, so I'm just anti-voting the perfects from here on in. Diablo 4 life, fools.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:39:01 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but before there where people here saying Bison would win.


The match is still a complete toss-up...

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:42:13 AM | Message Detail
Wow...underwhelming performance by Liquid today. Apparently, Lavos is stronger than previously thought.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 8:49:19 AM | Message Detail
Liquid's not impressing, but I think we all need to recognize the power of any and all things CT (and FF7 while we're at it) if Lavos is doing this good. I say this knowing there's a decent chance Liquid's over-rated, whether it be by the Solid **** pic (which only gets a lil' credit from me) to Mega Man not truly under-performing against Link (which, if true, could drop Lavos quick).

By the way, if Diablo = Ganondorf, Ridley's gettin' 27.43% on Link; that puts him between Alucard 2k4 and unadjusted Auron and has him getting 34.72% on Samus before SFF. That's just not happening...but I should note that's if the Diablo we saw against Ridley's the same Diablo that'll face Ganon if he wins the division; if he gets that far, more sites and b.net will likely catch on more, and that may bolster him more.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:14:34 AM | Message Detail
*unburrows*
Am I the only one here who's not surprised? I don't think the board would have hesitated about taking Lavos over Vercetti, yet everyone's all surprised at how Lavos is doing...
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SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:16:40 AM | Message Detail
Of course, alot of people think Vercetti's magically gonna disappear and be weaker due to another GTA game being released too.

Sig change, bay-bee; damn shame Wily's out though...and talking about sigs, who was it I bet with that Wesker wouldn't finish with 43% or more of the votes tomorrow against Kefka?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:30:54 AM | Message Detail
Frog was definitely on a Cinderella run last year.... I seriously doubt he'd get the same kind of support that he did last year. I'd say a rematch would Snake would go entirely different... especially in another round...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:41:09 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, Tenpenny might actually compete with Pyramid Head and Giygas for last in the extrapolateds if Liquid stinks it up this badly against Sephiroth.
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Current contest score: 15/16
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:42:51 AM | Message Detail
More fun with stats, since I've now grown addicted to them and they will eventually lead to my demise in any contest success sooner or later. This assumes adjusted 2k4 stats are accurate...

-If Sin = Kuja, Dr. Robotnik will lose to Master Hand with 47.49%.
-If Kuja = Kefka, MH is just short of Luigi...
-...so if Robo is to win if that's the case, Sin is at least stronger as Tails or unadjusted DK.
-If Sin = Kefka, Robo is right inbetween Tails and unadajusted DK...
-...so if MH is to win if that's the case, Kuja is at least stronger than Viewtiful Joe.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 9:46:31 AM | Message Detail
...stronger THAN Tails or unadjusted DK. I suck at proofreading sometimes.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:00:01 AM | Message Detail
Three last stats; if we go by the unadjusted stats and also take off .5% from Liquid's 26.94% because of Solid **** (essentially, in a worst reasonable case scenario for Liquid), Lavos (which has 42.26% right now) is still just under KOS-MOS and/or unadjusted Knuckles. If Lavos = adjusted Kefka, Liquid ends up between Yoshi and Knuckles (again, both adjusted). If Lavos = unadjusted Kefka, Liquid Snake is just under KOS-MOS (by 0.01%, no less).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Captain Obviousx1 | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:27:53 AM | Message Detail
This is just a tag, so I'll post the rest of my bracket and leave it up for discussion or whatever (I only missed Robotnik BTW):

Liquid Snake
Kefka
Diablo
Ganondorf
Master Hand

Bowser
Sephiroth
Diablo
Ganondorf

Sephiroth
Ganondorf

Sephiroth
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Davidson is in the house!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:31:06 AM | Message Detail
mine is like that (except I have Ridley where Diablo is) except I had Robotnik beating Kuja (or Master Hand)
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:47:49 AM | Message Detail
Liquid Snake
Kefka
Ridley
Ganondorf
Robotnik

Bowser
Sephiroth
Ridley
Ganondorf

Sephiroth
Ganondorf

Sephiroth


Hot damn, I wish I had Diablo winning the division instead of Ridley; I would have a very good shot at a perfect bracket right now if I did.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:52:02 AM | Message Detail
If we use Liquid Snake's unadjusted number Lavos comes out at 22.78, just aheadof KOS-MOS.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:58:14 AM | Message Detail
Right; I took an extra .5% off of Liquid though, just in case there actually was a significant portion of the votes affected by Solid **** (though I don't think it would be more than .25%), thus showing Lavos as low as he reasonably could be. The others showing Lavos = Kefka were just for kicks to show Lavos > Kefka here.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 10:59:31 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and as a side-note, I think Lavos is increasing in percentage pretty steadily.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/22/2005 11:00:59 AM | Message Detail
Wow, I expected Lavos to be under 40% when I woke up.
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And how many points do you have, again? - fedor
And how many contests have you won, again? - UltimaterializerX
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/22/2005 11:33:48 AM | Message Detail
This is great for Lavos.

Oh, and anyone who thinks Mother Brain > Ridley is out of their mind. Don't change your tune just because of this one match: Diablo really is that strong. That's why he's my Ruin Division winner.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 22, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Liquid Snake
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/22/2005 11:39:29 AM | Message Detail
Am I the only one here who's not surprised?

I'm not surprised. I expected Lavos to get around this number.

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“Remember us, Executor. Remember what was done here today. May Adun watch over you.”
- Tassadar
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/22/2005 11:44:47 AM | Message Detail
If Lavos stays at 42.64%, the adjusted stats from 2k4 are accurate, and Mother Brain = Ridley...that puts Diablo over Kirby.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Robotnik
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000." --Cartman
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