Er...underperformance.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I love Alucard and I'd like to think he cna jump 2.5% for no reason whatsoever, but it's a bit hard to beleive that a character who has otherwise (when adjusting Seph) performed in the same range the whole time he has been in the contest would suddenly jump one year when he's up against a character who we can't really say has performed solidly.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

We don't have any definite numbers on Alucard for 2002, so we really can't say he's performed in the same range. For all we know, that's where he's always been and we just didn't realize it due to Mario vs. Cloud and Sephiroth overperforming on him. After all, Kirby and Bomberman showed a supposed 2.5% or so increase as well, and they were in Alucard's four-pack.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And, the math still says he increases a bit, so don't take that as me saying he's rock steady, but it's not nearly as fast as the XSt would have it.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Well, if we were to adjust 2k2 Cloud to his 2k3 numbers then Alucard is under by 1.5% in 2k4. Of course, just going by a Link to Cloud comparison I don't think Cloud was quite there in 2k2. He's deffinately underrated, but making him = Link just doesn't look right (I still think it was 2k3 Link that was weak, and not 2k4 Link being strong)
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

I'm expecting Ganon to do better than what the X-sts project him to do. There isn't necessarily a "factor" to go along with it, but I think he's going to be able to pull 40%. Yes, I realize where that would put him, but I still think it's possible that he could do it.

I expect Bowser to do better than the X-sts project as well.

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“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

HM, you always expect your favorites to do better than anyone else expects or the stats project. You don't have to make a post telling us; we know. =P

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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

I'll call it the "Please don't let Sephiroth destroy my favorite villains like he's supposed to" factor.

That's a bit long though.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Wrong.

Sephiroth has a rather big advantage heading into a match against Samus. It would kill me to see her lose to him, but it would be like Cloud/Sephiroth. There would be people to take it, but it wouldn't be nearly as close to make it a justifiable pick in the end.

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“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

Well, yes, Ganon and Bowser are my two favorite villains in the contest, but I just think that they both should do better for whatever reason against Sephiroth -- particularly, Ganon. Unfortunately, there's no way to tell how they would stack up considering their opponents are all new until Sephiroth.

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“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

I believe that reason is called "because I want them to."
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Well, 40% (Above Sonic) is better than the afore mentioned 42% (Above Mario)
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Darn it, I can't believe I missed the end of the last topic, where multiple people threw out the 'villains vs. character contest' voting. I had brought that up numerous topics ago, and was pretty much called delusional for thinking people actually think before clicking a box. We will have a very good idea come tomorrow on this theory. Because if Wesker does statistically significantly better than 62ish% on Kefka, then either a) Kefka got way weaker, b) Luca got SFFed to hell and back by Magus or c) villainy actually means something. Luca is probably the most villainous villain in the field, and if anyone would benefit from this setting, it would be him. That being said, even if Kefka gets his 62ish%, it still does not shoot down this theory, because Kefka is one of the five best villains in this contest, and will likely overperform as a result. For all we know ToS could have massive mainstream love, and Mithos is more than just true fodder.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Nah, I'm pretty sure Mithos is pure fodder.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Kefka is very likely overrated in the XSt, and Luca's place is questionable too. We won't know anything tomorrow. Besides, if being very villainous got you extra votes Kefka would have looked like a machine last round, he didn't.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Okay, since we've seen so many characters that were contest hopefuls bomb so badly what I want to know is this: Who do you think still has a fair chance at being a decent competitor that hasn't made a contest yet?

*By decent I'm talking at least 19%, though preferably higher.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Vincent is someone who comes to mind immediately.

---
“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

Vincent, Tifa, Terra, Celes

Basically a bunch of Final Fantasy characters.

Yeah, I'd have said Vincent but I wanted to get other people talking since, ya know, nobody is. Very boring refrshing every 5-10 minutes for an hour of silence
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Leon S. Kennedy.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Let's not forget Kerrigan. She could pull off an upset or two in the right place.
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"Eww! What is up with that shirt? Where's the hot looking guy again?" - a girl after seeing his[Vercetti's] pic.

You know, I've got a question: how do you guys think Metroid Prime would do in a contest setting? Whether it be an actual Summer Contest or a Villain Contest. This is the character, of course.

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“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

Using that 19% number, I think Kerrigan would also qualify for someone who would do pretty well.

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“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata

Okay, since we've seen so many characters that were contest hopefuls bomb so badly what I want to know is this: Who do you think still has a fair chance at being a decent competitor that hasn't made a contest yet?

*By decent I'm talking at least 19%, though preferably higher.

Hmm... Just from my upgraded Snubs Tourney bracket, I think the following have at least an outside shot at 20% on Clinkeroth, SFF notwithstanding.

-Vincent Valentine
-Zidane Tribal
-Carl Johnson
-Metaknight
-Peach Toadstool
-Seifer Almasy
-The Prince
-Leon Kennedy
-Dan Hibiki
-Sub-Zero
-Serge
-Chun-Li
-Geno
-Mewtwo
-Capt. Falcon
-Sarah Kerrigan
-Felicia
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Two turtle-like fighters make their debuts in Middle... Will either Blastoise or Cagnazzo manage to win? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!

Lloyd would probably be able to go above 19%. I expect him to be stronger than Vyse.
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Current contest score: 15/16
ZSB [aX]

We ought to have a contest of characters who have either:
1. Not been in a contest yet.
2. Don't have a contest win yet.

That would be very unpredictable.
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"Eww! What is up with that shirt? Where's the hot looking guy again?" - a girl after seeing his[Vercetti's] pic.

Leon is the obvious one
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

-Vincent Valentine

Most definitely. I see him around Auron level

-Zidane Tribal

Most likely

-Carl Johnson

Most likely

-Metaknight

No way

-Peach Toadstool

Most likely

-Seifer Almasy

This might surprisingly be close to that level.

-The Prince

No way

-Leon Kennedy

Yeah, I can see him around Dante level

-Dan Hibiki

No

-Sub-Zero

Maybe

-Serge

Yeah I say he would be better than Kefka

-Chun-Li

Yeah

-Geno

Actually, he could give either way.

-Mewtwo

No

-Capt. Falcon

Yeah, but Fox deserves another chance before him.

-Sarah Kerrigan

I can see her = Diablo. So if Diablo is, she is.

-Felicia

Who?
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I think all of the following are capable of getting over 19%:

Terra Bradford
Shadow
Locke Cole
Vincent Valentine
Tifa Lockheart
Cid Highwind
Red XIII
Seifer Almasy
Zidane Tribal
Chun-Li
Sub-Zero
Whoever the most popular Soul Calibur character is
Lloyd Irving
Leon Kennedy
Carl Johnson
Rikku

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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Sephiroth just broke 78% and he's on pace for roughly the same vote total as he got against Ramirez.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Oh, throw Princess Peach in there as well.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Yesmar, do we really need the entire cast of FFVII in this contest?
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Oh, and to add a little something, after deciding how many characters would be over 19%, how many do you think would be over 25%?

Personally, I would say:

Vincent
Tifa
Terra
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Since the last topic died early:

X-stats for Ocelot's fourpack:

Revolver Ocelot: 50.00%
Dr. Wily: 45.49%
Nemesis: 45.34%
Ultros: 32.73%
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Spring Contest Score: 18/20
Today's Pick: Sephiroth

Yesmar, do we really need the entire cast of FFVII in this contest?

I wasn't saying I want all those people in the contest; I was just saying that they would all be capable of getting over 19%.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Over 25? I dont think Terra has a shot at that.

Vincent, Leon, Tifa maybe

Zelda and Aeris if they come back.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Vincent and Tifa...I'd also be inclined to say Kerrigan, but I'd want to see how exactly Diablo does first.
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Honorary Spring 2005 Winner - Kerrigan.

No, Kerrigan wouldn't rank that highly.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Pretty much any character that joins your party in Final Fantasy VII should do better than 19%.

do we really need the entire cast of FFVII in this contest?

If you dump the bottom dozen characters and replace them with nothing but FF7 party members, it would make for a vastly more fun and interesting contest.

Jobbers suck. Kinda by definition.
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www.SC2K5.com

I hope this year's Summer Contest will be interesting..
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.
Spring2K5: 16/18 | Today's Pick: Ocelot | Today's Vote: Dr. Wily

I think Cecil is another newcomer that could break 19% against Cloud, barring SFF.

On a side note: Episode III kicks ass.
---
SpC2k5: Owned by Diablo. Damnit.
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit

Cecil wouldn't make it out of the first round once you consider what art would be used of him.
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"Out of my way. I'm going to see my mother." - Sephiroth

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Imodium Ghaleon > Sigma would be hilarious
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L I T T L E M O N E Y

I actually like Peach's potential as a character. I wonder if she can do better than Zelda did in the contest. Zelda's games may be more popular, but I think Peach is more liked and has been more memorable. SMB2, Super Mario RPG, and the Mario Kart games, she was cool. Not to mention SSBM.... Not saying she'd be a powerhouse by any means...

I just noticed.... KIRBY is ranked above Yoshi in 2k4? What's up with that? I'm getting kinda confused with the Nintendo tier... Luigi's position makes me sad, based on who he is. Would Kirby really beat Luigi worse than Yoshi did? Who wins out of Peach/Luigi? Peach/Kirby? Kirby/Yoshi?
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Peach doesn't have the series named after her, nor does she come from LoZ. I doubt she'd be as strong as Zelda, probably not even as strong as Yoshi. I could see her beating Luigi, though not by much.
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SpC2k5: Owned by Diablo. Damnit.
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit

I don't think Zelda's name has anything to do with her strength. EVERYBODY know's who she is because everybody plays her games. And Zelda doesn't represent her game. Link does. Zelda's strength came from her game's popularity more than anything. It could have been named Legend of Link, and her strength wouldn't differ as much as you'd think...

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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I can't imagine Peach being stronger than Wario.

Who'd win in a poll: Peach or Diablo?
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546&topic=20526094

Diablo.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Nominate Christian for SC2K5!

I'd be stunned if peach was anywhere near Diablo's level.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20119594