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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 128
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:31:14 AM | Message Detail
There are no such thing as miracles or the supernatural; only cutting-edge technology.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm



*Match Pictures*

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Undeniable | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:33:45 AM | Message Detail
Wily is doing worsw then Nemmy right now.
---
"I've had anal before, and I just kinda layed there and watched tv while he had his fun." - Shadow Ryoko
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:34:28 AM | Message Detail
Wow, I never would have thought Nemesis > Wily.
---
Current contest score: 15/16
ZSB [aX]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:34:40 AM | Message Detail
Does this match mean Nemesis > Dr. Wily?
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Today's Pick: Revolver Ocelot, Tomorrow's Pick: Sephiroth - 14/18 points
From: CyberMachine08 | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:34:41 AM | Message Detail
Hand Gesture'D!!!

~_~

---
I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:32:09 PM | Message Detail
This match means Nemesis = Wily, give or take just a lil'.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:32:44 PM | Message Detail
Ya know.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:33:35 PM | Message Detail
It means that Bowser will have no challenge in gouging out Ocelot's entrails.
---
O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:34:12 PM | Message Detail
No, it means that Wily is stronger than Yoshi.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:38:57 PM | Message Detail
Nemesis = Wily > Yoshi? Please. *snaps fingers in a Valley-Girl way*
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:42:05 PM | Message Detail
I wonder if Bowser will break 60% on Ocelot. I'm guessing yes.
---
www.SC2K5.com
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:43:07 PM | Message Detail
Up the percentage about 10% and that's a better question.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:43:30 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, you're right.
---
www.SC2K5.com
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:44:36 PM | Message Detail
Up it 10%??? Try dropping it 10% and it's a better question.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:45:22 PM | Message Detail
It'd be better if you're looking for a unanimous answer anyway.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:45:29 PM | Message Detail
Who do you think will get last place in the Xstats?

I think Gyigas or Pyramid Head...
---
bfonebiuonbdib.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:47:35 PM | Message Detail
Pyramid Head's pretty much got it wrapped up, I would think.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:49:29 PM | Message Detail
Unless Ocelot = or just slightly<Liquid snake I don't see ocelot>bowser happening. I'm expecting Bowser to get around 60% or so. I don't think that Ocelot is weak enough to lose out by 70%, but that's just me.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20119594
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:49:50 PM | Message Detail
Barring Liquid or Ganon imploding or Bowser/Ocelot absorbing the powers from the shattered remains of Sigma/Wily, I think this is Pyramid Head's award to win.
---
Sure, Sephiroth's going to win the Spring Contest. But how will he fare in a real duel? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:52:37 PM | Message Detail
If Revolver gets 40% on Bowser, he is just a lil' stronger than Luigi...which isn't that bad of a guesstimate for him, at least for me. However, that puts Wily and Nemesis above Bomberman; I don't know how much I buy that.

If Revolver gets 30% on Bowser, he's a lil' below Crash...I doubt he's THAT low. This puts Nemesis and Wily between Conker and Sam Fisher though; while I can buy that for Nemesis, I can't so much for Wily.

Yes, I know my opinion of each of the characters goes against the numbers of one-another. I'm giving Revolver 36% against Bowser.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:53:46 PM | Message Detail
while I can buy that for Nemesis, I can't so much for Wily.

Considering NOBODY bought the idea of Nemesis = Wily, that's to be expected.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:54:27 PM | Message Detail
Unless Ocelot = or just slightly<Liquid snake I don't see ocelot>bowser happening. I'm expecting Bowser to get around 60% or so. I don't think that Ocelot is weak enough to lose out by 70%, but that's just me.

Well, duh. The reason that seems so farfetched now is because that would make Nemesis and Wily stronger than Yoshi.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/20/2005 8:57:56 PM | Message Detail
I realize that; however, even after looking at the numbers seeing how close they actually are against a common opponent, it still doesn't feel right putting Wily that low. I'm giving Nemesis and Revolver more credit than that thanks to how I don't think Revolver and Wily should be that low.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:53:00 PM | Message Detail
Everyone is a peon in this division compared to Bowser.

Mwa ha ha!

---
“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:55:47 PM | Message Detail
Yay for searchability!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:56:51 PM | Message Detail
Everyone is a peon in this division compared to Bowser.

Mwa ha ha!


Everyone is a peon in this contest compared to Sephiroth.

Mwa ha ha!
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:58:17 PM | Message Detail
I still hold out hope Ganon can break 42.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:00:24 PM | Message Detail
Everyone is a peon in this contest compared to Sephiroth.

Don't remind me. Luckily, there's a Hylian who could kick his ass in the Summer Contest. Although I still hold out some hope that the King of Evil will do respectably.

---
“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:02:25 PM | Message Detail
But everyone knows your favorite bounty hunter couldn't beat him.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:03:01 PM | Message Detail
Dagger in my heart, Leon. Dagger in my heart.

---
“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.”
- Satoru Iwata
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/21/2005 6:47:54 AM | Message Detail
Jenova Division: Round 2 - Match 20 – (3)Lavos vs. (2)Liquid Snake

Moltar’s Analysis

Lavos - The closest thing to Magus you’re going to get.
Round 1 – vs. Mother Brain (Lavos: 55.79% - Mother Brain: 44.21%)

Lavos barely makes it past Mother Russ…I mean Mother Brain.

Liquid Snake - Unable to change into a Solid state.
Round 1 – vs. Tenpenny (Liquid: 79.46% - Tenpenny: 20.54%)

Liquid had no problems with Tenpenny. Like he was going to anyway…

Yeah, the Jenova Division is quite the snore, but we still need to go through it. Lavos could barely take on Mother Brain, and Liquid is much, much stronger than MB was. Liquid should have no problems here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Liquid will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Lavos 34% - Liquid 66%



Ulti’s Analysis

You have the winner of a match featuring two characters that no one cares about against a character that got within 100 votes of Frog.

I ask again, why even bother.

Prediction: Liquid Snake with 68.34%



Soul’s Analysis

You got to feel a bit sad to see Liquid Snake in this division. Snake/Bowser had potential to be a great bracket buster. But no, CjayC did not realize this early enough, and Snake was stuck in Sephy's division. Lavos should not be much of a problem for Snake. Expect Liquid to win with 67.40%.



Outback’s Analysis

This. Divison. Sucks.

After Liquid's absolute pasting of Tenpenny and Lavos's unimpressive performance against Mother Brain, the outcome of this match is pretty obvious, as it was before the contest. The only real productive thing I can see coming out of this match is placing Lavos and Mother Brain on the X-Stats, and perhaps getting a ballpark estimate for Ridley through MB. Anyway, Liquid dominates.

Liquid Snake 68.90 Lavos 31.10



Inviso’s Analysis

Well…Lavos had his first match, a match that took CJayC off the top 50 leader board. That match was a match of complete fodder, much like Vergil vs. Ghaleon. Liquid Snake however, nearly quadrupled a character from Gamefaqs’ Game of the Year, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. Honestly, Liquid has a chance to perform on par with Sephiroth in this match, even though Lavos got a WAY better picture.

Liquid is gonna make himself some turtle soup, and it’ll actually taste good, unlike the crap Sephy’ll be making in the final 4.

My Prediction: Liquid Snake with 59.72%

---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Sephiroth vs. Vergil - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Vergil (18/20)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:54:36 AM | Message Detail
Bah, someone spoiled my effort to end the last topic with a YOGA FIRE
---
Jon Thomson - 18/20, today: Sephiroth, tomorrow: Liquid Snake
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:55:18 AM | Message Detail
But everyone knows your favorite bounty hunter couldn't beat him.

Wrong.

---
"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 20, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: TheRye | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:57:37 AM | Message Detail
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 1:52:31 PM | Message Detail
I suppose it is possible, but I think it is simply more likely that people are voting by which one they like more. But let's say that it is happening: Do you think that the percentage could really be anything more than, say, 1 - 2%?


Well, look at how Bowser is wrecking shop. Granted he hasn't really faced any stiff competition yet, but is there any other way to explain the way he is thrashing his opponents? I mean, he tripled Sigma (or came close, I don't recall the end-of-the-poll). Am I saying Boswer is going to beat Sephiroth? No, because enough people are voting on popularity as opposed to villainy. But I can honestly say that I believe that Bowser is getting more than 1-2% based on his villain status, and his matches seem to coincide with that. All the Xstats I'm seeing putting Sigma near the bottom of the Character Battle list just don't look right
---
I GOTTA HAVE MORE COWBELL
“TheRye is like Jesus, if Jesus ever played video games.” -Inviso
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:57:40 AM | Message Detail
Unless you call me Chichi, then I may turn on a dime and kill you.

And you have to think, this is an RPG centric site, Ghaleon is like a god to many of this sites visitors. On the other hand, Sigma is not. Frankly you'd have to complete a Mega Man X game to know him, and I'd bet a lot of the people who would support Zero haven't done that (I support Zero and I've never had the time to beat more than a handful of any Maverics in any given game, having never owned one myself) and for those who did many of them would be inclined to dislike him. Wily isn't much better off, but he still is due to numerous circumstances (and probably not too much better off, anyway). I don't know how many times I have to say this, as I've been saying it since before Sigma got his lights knocked out, but he sucks. Plain and simple.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:59:49 AM | Message Detail
Unless you call me Chichi, then I may turn on a dime and kill you.

XD

And I support Zero - just because of the way he looks and the fact that he is in the Mega Man universe - but I've never even touched an MMX game. I wasn't even sure that Sigma would beat Andross and just went off of what other people said. >_>

---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:59:51 AM | Message Detail
And why is it so many people have to think that this being a villains contest has any effect? Bowser stomped some character who were stains, big deal. He beat Guybrush about as badly as he beat Pyramid Head, I should expect no less. In fact I'm dissapointed in Bowser for that match because I expected more. They aren't getting special treatment because this is a villains contest and if anything Ganon will be lower than the XSt have him, not higher, because they're wrong.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:01:24 AM | Message Detail
I think we are going to have to wait until Bowser vs Sephiroth to know. We still have no idea how strong Ocelot is and Gannon is just going to destroy Ansem who might just be the victim of CATS fans finnaly seeing an opening (and being completely weak). Plus he will destroy Master Hand (who I say is the favorite at this point) due to SFF.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:02:41 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I called Sigma/Andross as a close one to begin with. People seemed to think I was crazy and I marked Sigma in on my bracket without much more thought. If you're that close to Andross, though, it means you're supposed to be a tiny little speck at the bottom of the XSt.
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:03:44 AM | Message Detail
I somehow doubt that fans of Sephiroth are going to suddenly think that Bowser is better as a villain. I think that Sephiroth fans are far too loyal to do something like that. I'd be surprised if Bowser or Ganondorf did anything outside the margin of error...
---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:05:24 AM | Message Detail
They'll barely avoid a trippling. ~35% is what I see both of them getting.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:05:58 AM | Message Detail
Wrong.

It's about the same thing people were talking about when they took Sephiroth over Cloud last summer. It's a nifty little upset pick to take, but I wouldn't bet on it.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:07:31 AM | Message Detail
Hey, that could have panned out for me. Sure, Crono over Link was craziness, as well... but sometimes you gotta do something different. Well... if you make a second bracket at least.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:09:05 AM | Message Detail
That's what I'm saying. It seems reasonable and it'd pay off big if it hits. I just don't think it'd be likely.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:11:24 AM | Message Detail
They'll barely avoid a trippling. ~35% is what I see both of them getting.

Talked to RPGuy earlier:

(12:11:31) mumei2: What is Ganny projected to get on Sephy?
(12:11:33) mumei2: 35 - 37%?
(12:11:36) mumei2: And what about Bowser?
(12:11:53) RPGuy96: 37.29 for Gdorf;
(12:12:04) RPGuy96: 33.26 for Bowser.
(12:12:17) mumei2: Poor bastards.
(12:12:22) RPGuy96: Indeed.

And I doubt that either one of them will do more than, say, .50% better, which would just be margin of error.
---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:14:35 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but I'm calling Ganon as being overrated in the XSts, and assuming that Bowser could avoid trippling is fair. Besides, I was trying to keep it a round number.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:16:52 AM | Message Detail
At the 11:10 mark, this match has 42834 votes. To compare to other matches at the same time:

Sephiroth/Ramirez - 42762
Vergil/Ghaleon - 33518
Liquid Snake/Tenpenny - 31736
Ganondorf/Giygas - 40994
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:29:08 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but I'm calling Ganon as being overrated in the XSts

By about 2%?


---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:32:34 AM | Message Detail
Hey, I'm not saying it's huge, but I'm saying by at least that much (It's actually about 3% short of his supposed score against 2k4 Link).... and as much as 5% off (going by Alucard) which would leave him at 32.35% on Sephiroth.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 11:33:23 AM | Message Detail
I would consider Alucard to be underrated by the 2003 stats instead of calling that a Ganondorf performance.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
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