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Spring 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 127
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:43:15 PM | Message Detail
We already saw three drop on Bowser.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/20/2005 10:44:58 PM | Message Detail
And if 3 of the 49 thought Bowser would lose to Sigma then we'll see some of the ones who survive today lose when Bowser meets Ocelot. Plus, 6 of them still have a non-seph winner. That's not looking good for them.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:21:16 PM | Message Detail
As annoying as Fedor has been, the only matches he could possibly get wrong are the Kefka/Bison/Diablo trio and Robutt/Glove.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:22:47 PM | Message Detail
Do you know who he has winning in those?
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20119594
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/20/2005 11:54:09 PM | Message Detail
Kinda weird that the vote totals were so low today... blame Star Wars!
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:00:39 AM | Message Detail
Random statement as we wait for the stats to update.

Super Mario Bros: "Lost Levels" is the pinnacle of 8-Bit Mario, and MAYBE even 2D Mario. There are few games that have as much of a satisfactory feeling by playing and beating them.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 18, Rank: 45 (T1), Pick: Ocelot
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:01:26 AM | Message Detail
34 left.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 20, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:06:55 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
18-----46-------73.9130435
17-----498------72.2891566
16-----1587-----66.6036547
15-----3178-----58.1812461
14-----4938-----52.7744026
13-----5186-----45.6421134
12-----4200-----38.6666667
11-----2506-----33.5594573
10-----1345-----27.9553903
9------659------24.5827011
8------290------19.3103448
7------110------15.4545455
6------62-------14.5161290
5------30-------13.3333333
4------29-------3.4482759
3------35-------2.8571429

All people with scores 2 and lower got the match wrong.

Pretty good showing by the perfects, well above the average. One of the people with a score of 3 got the match right. Oo

12 people fell off the Top 50 today. drummaster44, MakeYourChance, njb_367, Addiction314, L_Dragon, neosnipes, Legacy674, kidmigaru, Akash1223, Feath, Shoenin_Kakashi and Knucinos did not have Ocelot beating Wily.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:09:41 AM | Message Detail
45.92. Crap, I was .25% off. My clairvoyance is not yet ready.
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*Taps on your shoulder and points* My tuba!
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:14:01 AM | Message Detail
Still four perfects with wrong winners...

Vergil isn't doing that bad at this second, though he'll likely fall below 20% before the match is done.
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SpC2k5: 16/18 Next up: Bowser, Ocelot, Sephiroth, Liquid
*is Janus5000*
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:15:10 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't be so sure about that. I think Vergil may be able to avoid being tripled.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:18:48 AM | Message Detail
Vergil might keep above 20%, but I really doubt he'd be able to stay above 25%.
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SpC2k5: 16/18 Next up: Bowser, Ocelot, Sephiroth, Liquid
*is Janus5000*
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:19:52 AM | Message Detail
Meh, I'm being optimistic. Go Vergil! (I really do think he'll stay well above 20% though)
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: voltch | Posted: 5/21/2005 12:43:37 AM | Message Detail
with enough pity/antisephiroth votes vergil may be able to avoid being tripled
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/21/2005 3:15:03 AM | Message Detail
So lets say Vergil manage to keep his 24% against Sephiroth, how good would that make him in the X stats, and more important how would that make Ghaleon look in the X Stats?
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Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/21/2005 3:33:37 AM | Message Detail
Well, overall this would put Vergil at Bombermanish level, and Ghaleon at Laharlish.
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*Taps on your shoulder and points* My tuba!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2005 5:54:18 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Vergil's doing rather good. I expected to see him around 20%... well, the day vote still has to come in, but whatever.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 18/20 - Matches: 16/18 - Rank: 00395/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 5:58:27 AM | Message Detail
I expected a solid tripling going into this. A quadrupling was too much to ask for, I think.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: voltch | Posted: 5/21/2005 6:00:48 AM | Message Detail
do those results mean we were overestimating or underestimating ghaleon
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: a_doyle_42 | Posted: 5/21/2005 6:05:41 AM | Message Detail
My score has gone down the drain
From: MyWorldIsSega | Posted: 5/21/2005 6:42:28 AM | Message Detail
My score has gone down the drain

So did mine, don't feel bad. :(
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/21/2005 7:07:49 AM | Message Detail
'Tis sad to think the first perfect bracket will not include a Guru... I guess time to just hope havoc is strickened upon this contest and nobody is perfect. Go Diablo... to the title match!

Any chance Sephiroth won't have at least 2/3 of the bracket picking him to win it all?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 7:11:07 AM | Message Detail
I think Sephiroth's likely got about half, give or take a lil'.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 7:53:27 AM | Message Detail
Vergil should finish anywhere from about 20.5% to about 23.5% if Ghaleon's somewhere between Laharl and Luca, by the way.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 5/21/2005 7:54:29 AM | Message Detail
X-stats for Ocelot's fourpack:

Revolver Ocelot: 50.00%
Dr. Wily: 45.49%
Nemesis: 45.34%
Ultros: 32.73%
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Spring Contest Score: 18/20
Today's Pick: Sephiroth
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/21/2005 7:57:07 AM | Message Detail
Nemesis would prove that wrong by beating Dr. Wily
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:03:53 AM | Message Detail
I'd be really tempted to take Nemesis over Wily, actually, but I'd likely stay true to my preferences and take the good doctor himself.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:17:50 AM | Message Detail
I asked this a while back and nobody really seemed like they knew for sure, so I'll ask again now that we got Revolver/Wily out of the way: would anybody take Revolver or Wily over M. Bison?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:18:55 AM | Message Detail
I don't know for sure... <_<
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 18/20 - Matches: 16/18 - Rank: 00395/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:27:52 AM | Message Detail
Some stats I felt like collecting:

In Spc2k5 round 1, we had

0/16 matches where the winner had less than 51%
5/16 matches where the winner had less than 55.1%
8/16 matches where the winner had less than 60%

In Sc2k4 round 1, we had

3/32 matches where the winner had less than 51%
5/32 matches where the winner had less than 55.1%
9/32 matches where the winner had less than 60%

In Sc2k4 round 2, we had

1/16 matches where the winner had less than 51%
4/16 matches where the winner had less than 55.1%
6/16 matches where the winner had less than 60%

In other words, the first round of this contest had more semi-close matches than the first and second rounds of the last contest, but not as many real nailbiters (in the end; Kuja/MH began a nailbiter but MH ran away with the day vote).

(I used 55.1% instead of 55% since there were two matches in Sc2k4 round 1 and Sc2k4 round 2 where the winners had 55.08% and 55.01% respectively, so I felt they should go in the under 55% category.)
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:44:14 AM | Message Detail
Just got to lookin'; if Dr. Wily = Dr. Robotnik, Sin would get 44.29% on Revolver, 48.84% on Nemesis, and 63.05% on Ultros without SFF.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:52:06 AM | Message Detail
I think Dr Robotnik will be better than Wily, since he's a playable character in the most popular Sonic game this generation.
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Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/21/2005 8:56:16 AM | Message Detail
Me too, but since the relation between them's been speculated alot, I wanted to throw that out there.

Off to work guys.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/21/2005 9:12:14 AM | Message Detail
If Lavos gets significantly more than 35% against Liquid Snake, I'd have to call Robotnik the favorite against Master Hand. Currently I still have to side with Master Hand, though.

I don't want to think about who to pick between Robotnik and Wily right now. =p

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/21/2005 9:50:20 AM | Message Detail
I'd pick Robotnik over Wily without a second thought.

I liked his mech levels in SA2:B >_>
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SpC2k5: 18/20 Next up: Bowser, Ocelot, Sephiroth, Liquid
*is Janus5000*
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:27:53 AM | Message Detail
Bowser had to of gained by some amount (maybe underrepresented by SFF) because I refuse to believe Ghaleon could beat Sigma 55-45.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:30:52 AM | Message Detail
Why is it that Bowser had to have gained or had some SFF involved? Can't you just accept that your choice character sucks? It sure would be a lot easier that way, after all.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:32:13 AM | Message Detail
Sigma is my choice character? I just dont see how Ghaleon could be stronger than Sigma. Nothing to do with choice. I personally hate Sigma as do I much that has to do with MMX.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:38:22 AM | Message Detail
Then quit complaining. If he's weaker than Ghaleon good for Ghaleon. There's nothing backing "I don't see why..." when it comes to thinking people are misplaced in the XSt. Characters that I would have thought would have done better didn't, I'm sure we've all experienced that (and the reverse). It's a popularity contest, and apparently people just don't like Sigma. That's all there is to it, regardless of how you see it.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:41:11 AM | Message Detail
I don't think Sigma has a strong backing anyway. Unlike Dr. Wily, I've heard a lot of "Why won't you just die already?" comments whenever Sigma makes a return in the next MMX game.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:44:28 AM | Message Detail
Hostile as ever, I see. Wasn't complaining. Just noticing something that I thought was weird. Really Im trying to find a reason for my belief that Bowser and Ganon might be stronger in this contest simply because they are the only character from their game series.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:46:25 AM | Message Detail
Hostile as ever, I see.

Don't worry, Chichi loves us all. ^_^

I do think you are wrong, though, but that's mostly because I had never heard of Sigma before this contest, and I had at least heard of Ghaleon years ago, so I was probably more than a little influenced by that.
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:49:15 AM | Message Detail
I just have a theory that people will vote differently for the same characters in a regular character and a villian contest. Nothing to extreme, so Im not saying Gannon will be Sephiroth, but something that might change a few percentages. I personally am anti-voting Sephiroth simply because I dont think he is a villian.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: TheRye | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:50:05 AM | Message Detail
You know, I had an amazing thought. People just might be voting Bowser heavily because they think he's a great villain, in a villains contest after all. There just might be some people out there voting for who they actually think is the better villain, as opposed to who they think is a better character. The gap could be explained by the fact that Bowser isn't exactly a deep character, but is a legendary villain.

Some people might actually be voting for who they think is the better villain, believe it or not. That's why I think comparing Villain stats to the Character Battle stats isn't exactly a good idea, considering voters voted on different criteria. Just a thought
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I GOTTA HAVE MORE COWBELL
“TheRye is like Jesus, if Jesus ever played video games.” -Inviso
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:06 AM | Message Detail
I had that thought a long time ago, Rye. If we're both right, then Bowser stands a chance.

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"MyWorldIsSNES" Score: 20, Rank: 33 (T1), Pick: Sephiroth
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: TheRye | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:08 AM | Message Detail
...and someone posts the exact same thing seconds before I do. At least I'm not alone in my thoughts.
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I GOTTA HAVE MORE COWBELL
“TheRye is like Jesus, if Jesus ever played video games.” -Inviso
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:31 AM | Message Detail
I suppose it is possible, but I think it is simply more likely that people are voting by which one they like more. But let's say that it is happening: Do you think that the percentage could really be anything more than, say, 1 - 2%?
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: TheRye | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:50 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't mind seeing that, my bracket is shot anyways.
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I GOTTA HAVE MORE COWBELL
“TheRye is like Jesus, if Jesus ever played video games.” -Inviso
From: Zealagon | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:59 AM | Message Detail
hahahah
From: Zealagon | Posted: 5/21/2005 10:52:59 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
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