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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 127
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:07:28 PM | Message Detail
First time all contest we've needed two stats topics in one day.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm



*Match Pictures*

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:07:51 PM | Message Detail
KILL THE HAND!
---
SpC2k5: 14/15 Next up: Ganondorf, DARKNESS, Robotnik, Kuja -.-
*is Janus5000*
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:07:57 PM | Message Detail
FIRST!

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: WiggumFan267 | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:08:01 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:08:59 PM | Message Detail
*shakes fist*

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:09:28 PM | Message Detail
=D
---
SpC2k5: 14/15 Next up: Ganondorf, DARKNESS, Robotnik, Kuja -.-
*is Janus5000*
From: thok | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:10:02 PM | Message Detail
Stupid anti-fist shaking laws!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:12:25 PM | Message Detail
If I get Revolver/Wily right (Revolver's my pic), I could still potentially make the leaderboard.....
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:13:17 PM | Message Detail
Harrich, I'm pretty confident that you don't have to worry about that.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:15:20 PM | Message Detail
Tag. Go Wily! Go Robotnik!
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:15:37 PM | Message Detail
Heh. Either way, should it be right, I'd have to make it before Bison/Diablo comes up, or else I'll never make it. For what it's worth, I hadn't made any changes to my bracket since the day after the bracket came out.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:36:34 PM | Message Detail
Master Hand beating Kuja is crazy... but cool.

---
PS3 & Revolution > > > Xbox 360; Diablo > > > > Ridley
GTA Gavin is always right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/18/2005 6:38:47 PM | Message Detail
Crazy Hand beating Kuja is master... but cool.

...so sorry.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/18/2005 11:41:52 PM | Message Detail
You should be.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:06:21 AM | Message Detail
Okay, is it possible that Bowser maybe has grown stronger since the last contest? Probably getting ahead of myself or what I predicted would happen was true about everyone getting nostalgic upon seeing the Koopa Klown Kar and voting for him.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:06:39 AM | Message Detail
You think Bowser might be SFFing Sigma? o_O

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:07:12 AM | Message Detail
2005-05-19 00:04:01 281 64 81.45% 18.55% 217

Just for the record, this was the 4 minute update. I personally was checking the poll at random and Bowser was leading 300-65. Holy crap.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:07:55 AM | Message Detail
Okay, is it possible that Bowser maybe has grown stronger since the last contest?

Stranger things have happened.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:08:18 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 82.21% 462
Sigma 17.79% 100
TOTAL VOTES 562

Wow.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:08:20 AM | Message Detail
Bower > Sigma 75%. Book it.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 14/16 - Matches: 14/16 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Ocelot
Nominate Meta Knight for Summer Contest!
From: transience | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:08:38 AM | Message Detail
wow, this is a beating, SFF or not. this can't be good for Wily.

---
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:09:02 AM | Message Detail
Heh, this might make Pyramid Head look better, at the very least.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:09:51 AM | Message Detail
Well, I speculated that perhaps Bowser got some help from Paper Mario 2, but who knows?
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:11:09 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
15-----280------17.5000000
14-----1050-----27.7142857
13-----2764-----32.7424023
12-----4572-----33.0927384
11-----5647-----38.6045688
10-----4846-----41.1267024
9------3054-----46.9548134
8------1513-----49.0416391
7------627------50.7177033
6------198------50.0000000
5------59-------66.1016949
4------29-------79.3103448
3------30-------83.3333333
2------36-------83.3333333
1------30-------86.6666667
0------13-------92.3076923

Wow. The 0's did very well with an amazing 92% prediction rate... Oh wait. Everybody pretty much got obliterated by Master Hand. The lower your score the high the chance of choosing this match correctly was. Congrats to the first and only existing perfect zero bracket.

The Top 50 was a mess. Forty people fell off the Top 50. Yoblazer, GFRomaji, maxvercetti66, NakedxSnake, youspoonybard, Etherie, kenrmcha19, Finalxflash, VietBoi4Life, Utah_Jazz_Fan, Cid_, Lucied1, Wanglicious, MyImmortal, hieds1, Princess_Anri, SonicRaptor, mamuman, SolidPandaG, SuperStealthDud, Freaczorz, Veinzy, dethwing, olOoOlo, xephodark, Jyin, pugtheninja, BlkDuc52, Moogle85, caconn02, PlatinymCloud, ExThaNemesis, Black_Cheese, KadenceInc, FrostHarpy, Dasmopp, RipvanFish, darklink37, onthebrightside and Kintajii didn't make it. StopPokingMe was the 41st Top 50 member to get the match wrong but manged to hang on to the Top 50 at 50th.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:12:13 AM | Message Detail
Note: It took Bowser only ONE minute to get a 100 vote lead. That is insane.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:12:42 AM | Message Detail
I think I've been everywhere in the Top 10 except for #1. >_<
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:14:07 AM | Message Detail
Top characters strengths seem to fluctuate from contest to contest. If Bowser's on a roll, and Sephiroth's in a slump, then we could be in for the bracket buster from hell in the semifinals.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:14:55 AM | Message Detail
Bowser beating Sephiroth would give me joy on a level I didn't think I could receive from a mere poll.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:20:23 AM | Message Detail
Well, Sigma finally managed to bring Bowser under 80%, though a solid tripling still looks good.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:21:42 AM | Message Detail
If Mario could do it, why not Bowser?

---
I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:22:15 AM | Message Detail
If this says anything about Dr. Wily's strength, just imagine how weak Ultros would be. o_O

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:26:55 AM | Message Detail
Let's assume for a second that Bowser finishes with a tripling, and that Sigma = Wily.

That puts Sigma/Wily at 15.48% on Link (right below Laharl), putting Andross at 14.39% on Link (right below Gordon Freeman) and Ultros at 11.13% on Link (just above Tom Nook).
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:28:47 AM | Message Detail
Laharl > Sigma?

XD

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:30:10 AM | Message Detail
And that's assuming Sigma even gets it down to a mere tripling. As it stands, he's at 12.75% on Link (about equal to Abe).
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: transience | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:36:30 AM | Message Detail
well, if you're gonna adjust Mega Man/Link, don't you have to do the same with this match?

---
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:37:52 AM | Message Detail
What match?
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: transience | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:38:31 AM | Message Detail
ha. :) with Bowser/Sigma.

---
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:44:03 AM | Message Detail
You know, statistically speaking, this is one unpredictable contest for its size so far. 49 is the fewest number of perfects after 16 matches since SC2K2 (or possibly the lowest ever...I don't know how 2K2 went). Even though there were only 16 matches for Round 1, the most common score was 11/16. The average score of Sp2K4 was 27/32, I believe. Quite a difference.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Mamuman | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:46:29 AM | Message Detail
This doesn't look good for Wily :(

Dammit, now that my bracket is killed Wily better win!
---
This user is my god *this is an alt, but who uses this alt?*
v
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:51:04 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 78.52% 1963
Sigma 21.48% 537
TOTAL VOTES 2500

With that, I go to bed.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: octoinky | Posted: 5/19/2005 12:52:44 AM | Message Detail
The mode is 11, and the average is 11.1412. For anybody who's interested.
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/19/2005 1:02:34 AM | Message Detail
Sigma will probably bring this down below 75%, at the least, I can't see him doing this poorly. Seriously, Laharl?

Whoo, finally get to do my duty and raise Raiden awareness again. Stupid octopus.
---
He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/19/2005 1:04:43 AM | Message Detail
The only other solution is that Bowser is a powerhouse this time around.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/19/2005 1:07:48 AM | Message Detail
Or that Sigma needs to show more often than after you refight the 8 bosses.
---
BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 5/19/2005 3:50:34 AM | Message Detail
To wake up this morning and slowly scroll down the leaderboard to find all 16's until the 50 spot was extremely disheartening. It'll be a long shot if I could pull this off, but I'm still hoping 1 miss won't ruin me.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Mr Lasastryke | Posted: 5/19/2005 3:55:22 AM | Message Detail
So, any chance Ocelot beats Wily? I hope he does, because I can't take another mistake. >_>
---
~ Mr Lasastryke
Wow, I was an idiot for choosing Ridley over Diablo.
From: CyberMachine08 | Posted: 5/19/2005 3:59:11 AM | Message Detail
I've Wily over Ocelot!

*shudders*

---
I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585*
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 5/19/2005 4:01:52 AM | Message Detail
It would be freaking incredible if Bowser could somehow win the contest.

He's definately stronger than usual. I just don't see why the main villain of the MMX series would be weaker than Laharl.
---
As soon as I entered this topic, I farted. If this is a sign of things to come, I'm out. - HaRRicH
Dig Dug for SC2K5!
From: cyko | Posted: 5/19/2005 4:12:13 AM | Message Detail
man, i wasn't expecting Bowser to hammer Sigma this badly. he's at about 79% and his percentage is going back UP. THAT is insane. this cannot look good for Dr. Wily.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 5/19/2005 4:12:26 AM | Message Detail
I think Laharl would put up a pretty good fight against Sigma... then again, I'm an idiot.

If I have a perfect second round, I definitely still have a shot at this, but that won't happen.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
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