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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 122
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/14/2005 12:41:05 PM | Message Detail
a beating that was quite clearly going to happen anyway

...Which is why half of us got it wrong, right?
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SpC2k5: 11/11 Next up: Kefka, Wesker, M.Bison, Ridley =(
*is Janus5000*
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/14/2005 12:46:41 PM | Message Detail
Food for thought:
If Diablo = Bison, Albedo would lose to Ridley with 36.68%.
If Diablo = Kefka, Ridley would be at 19.57% on Link (Vyse).
Bison/Diablo is going to be the first 6/7 match since Mega Man/Sephiroth in 2k2.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/14/2005 12:48:04 PM | Message Detail
...Which is why half of us got it wrong, right?

I meant that before the link was posted, Diablo was already over 56% and climbing like mad. Blaming the link for his win is petty.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/14/2005 12:51:11 PM | Message Detail
What time was the link posted?
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SpC2k5: 11/11 Next up: Kefka, Wesker, M.Bison, Ridley =(
*is Janus5000*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 12:55:44 PM | Message Detail
I know it was after 3:30 AMT and before 7:15 AM Central Time; it wasn't up when I went to sleep, but was when I woke up.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:03:55 PM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/14/2005 6:55:05 AM | Message Detail
And Diabloii.net linked to here. Thanks for nothing.


Make that sometime between 3:30 and 6:55, Central Time...or between 1:30 and 4:55, contest time.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tjian | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:13:55 PM | Message Detail
I forgot to mention: methinks the link won't be helpin' Diablo alot until later tonight, so it makes sense that Diablo's only gained almost a percent right now since it stabilized early this morning.

That is a good point because most D2 players do come on at night, and especially with this being a Saturday, we should see his lead increase even more.

One of my friends finally got the internet back, so I will probably be playing D2 with him later tonight as well. :P
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Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:15:24 PM | Message Detail
When your D2 session's over, come back and give a quick report about how much/little spamming there is on b.net for the match (probably next to none with the lead Diablo's got, heh).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:22:17 PM | Message Detail
Yay for overhyped matches.
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:22:36 PM | Message Detail
Ridley 43% 21125
Diablo 57% 28008
TOTAL VOTES 49133

Come on Ridley; if the night vote favors Diablo much, you're gonna get embarrassed.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tai | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:39:22 PM | Message Detail
It's been around 57% forever.

I thought Diablo would increase his percentage..guess not.

Btw, I could say to forget what I said about Diablo beating Ryu..but you already did, right?
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (153 Signs!)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:45:15 PM | Message Detail
Diablo's SSLLOOWWLLYY been increasing his percentage lately though. Come night-time, I expect 58% to be hit, perhaps more (up to 59%? Nah.....).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: transience | Posted: 5/14/2005 1:55:43 PM | Message Detail
I realize Lavos is weak, but is it possible that Mother Brain is just as strong, if not stronger, than Ridley? it sure looks like MB is going to get more votes than Ridley.

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:01:09 PM | Message Detail
I still don't buy MB > Ridley, but I'll be quick to say they'll be closer together than I once thought.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:02:26 PM | Message Detail
I realize Lavos is weak, but is it possible that Mother Brain is just as strong, if not stronger, than Ridley? it sure looks like MB is going to get more votes than Ridley.

That's not just because of Ridley, they aren't facing the same opponent...

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: transience | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:05:07 PM | Message Detail
I guess the x-stats will let us know; if Lavos gets creamed by Liquid Snake (which is quite possible) then Mother Brain will definitely look weaker than the 55/45 she lost by. Ridley's gotta hope that Diablo smacks Bison around to look respectable.

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:06:25 PM | Message Detail
Ridley's steadily losing percentage now guys...yikes.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: transience | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:07:19 PM | Message Detail
I think 58% is too conservative - if the Diablo sites do what I expect them to do, this could push 60%.

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:10:06 PM | Message Detail
Ridley's gotta hope that Diablo smacks Bison around to look respectable.

Ridley's gotta hope that Diablo loosens his choke-hold a lil' bit by the end of the match AND wins the division to look respectable. Right now, should Ridley stay at 42.84% and Diablo = Kefka, Ridley's just a lil' above Vyse.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: transience | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:28:16 PM | Message Detail
ouch. I would have taken Ridley over Vyse without thinking about it. maybe metroid really is Samus and only Samus.

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:35:09 PM | Message Detail
I never understood why people thought Ridley was going to be on the level of Luigi or Tails. Think about how popular Luigi and Tails are outside of contest results and notice how prominent they have been. I couldn't think of one reason why RIDLEY should be placed on their level. I would think that Diablo had the POTENTIAL to get near their level with the large internet fanbase, but it wasn't necessarily guaranteed. That was the main basis for me picking Diablo. I didn't know his ceiling....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:44:15 PM | Message Detail
I maintain that a metroid > Ridley or Mother Brain here.

I also forgot to mention that Diablo might wanna be a lil' stronger than Kefka was last year, seeing as how Kefka's likely got the bracket support behind him (1-seed, two contests, Square, yada yada) and that he'll likely have a good sprite (for whatever it's worth)...THEN not choke against Ganon. Ridley has to depend on all of this to stay respectable. As is, if Diablo = Kefka and Ridley stays at 42.82%, Vyse would get 49.34% on Ridley...and Vyse's strength is my floor for respectable characters.

As for Ridley = Tails, I figured Ridley could only be so far away from Samus, and I thought Tails was a good spot for him. With that position, Wario was still closer to Mario than Ridley was to Samus, which made sense to me...so I stuck with it. Of course, I believe Shadow didn't over-perform against Mario, so if he did, that could affect that logic.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:45:17 PM | Message Detail
Because I accidentally landed on it...

Ridley 42.81% 23120
Diablo 57.19% 30880
TOTAL VOTES 54000
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/14/2005 2:46:32 PM | Message Detail
^Who cares about the sprite? In such a text based game as FF VI, you'll either know Kefka or you won't!
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:06:34 PM | Message Detail
he'll likely have a good sprite (for whatever it's worth)

I think it'll be of little matter, but I still think it will be a matter that exists. Until we see Kefka with a picture that he's actually known for instead of his lettuce-loving official art or gouged-eyes 3D version, it's hard to say that having a picture that actually resembles a character won't have an effect...a small effect, yes, but an effect he hasn't had a chance to experience yet. Think of somebody you like and haven't seen in, say, a year or two. Would you be more likely to recognize them by a photo from a year or two ago, or if they came face-to-face with you in the present day? The answer, in all likelyhood, depends on how much they've changed...and Kefka changed a lot from 2D to 3D. I think that same effect would have a minor role in making Kefka a lil' stronger; it may not even be to the point of being significantly separable from the standard range of variations, but I remain confident that it is still worth noting.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:21:34 PM | Message Detail
Looks like I'm picking up the same jig as last spring, where I lose every hot match. Hopefully Eggman will change that...

Diabloii.net can't have posted this at 9:52 Pacific, seeing how I posted about it at 7:55 EASTERN (4:55 Pacific). Maybe there was something updated, I dunno.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 11/11 - Matches: 11/11 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ridley - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:39:30 PM | Message Detail
Well, one good thing about this match is that it eliminates one of the two possible SFF matches in the contest. Ganon SFF'ing Ridley certainly wouldn't help get the stats on the Ruin division down right, especially with the only two veterans being iffy themselves.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:43:10 PM | Message Detail
It had to be posted between 1:30 and 4:55 AM Pacific Time. It wasn't up when I went to sleep at 3:30 Central Time, and it was up no later than 6:55 when you posted. We've got it pinned down to almost a 3 1/2-hour range, which is pretty good considering not many votes would come in from that site during those hours, I assume.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:46:05 PM | Message Detail
Ganon SFF'ing Ridley certainly wouldn't help get the stats on the Ruin division down right

I think that woulda added to the mystique of the Ruin Division, personally, where even after all the cards are dealt we still don't know what kind of hand that division truly had, so to speak.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:50:02 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I guess an update would be the most rational explanation (did it say Ridley was from the Metroid series originally?).
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"Not even death can save you from me!" - Diablo
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:53:49 PM | Message Detail
It did when I first saw it at 7:15 Central Time this morning, I believe.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/14/2005 3:56:58 PM | Message Detail
The guy who posted it said that he "heard" Ridley was from the Metroid series, heh.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:02:06 PM | Message Detail
My bracket is totally ****ed up the ass now (*glares in Diablo's direction*), so I'll just hope for mass chaos in the contest from now on.

Come on, Master Hand over Kuja!
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:02:57 PM | Message Detail
Diablo just keeps on increasing his lead. Looking at a 10,000 vote difference soon.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:04:31 PM | Message Detail
I'm not surprised he didn't know Ridley. Ya know, I'm beginning to wonder how I got to know what Ridley's name was...and I don't have a clue. I know I didn't know who Ridley was as a kid by name (though I'd fought the thing before), and I know I knew who Ridley was before I played MP. I hadn't played SM until after I beat MP, too.

Hmmm.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:06:53 PM | Message Detail
Come on, Master Hand over Kuja!

I'm losing a Final Four character today, but if Master Hand still beat Kuja, I'm calling myself a winner in my own mind. Unfairly, yes, but the fact remains that all will be well in my mind if MH wins.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:08:14 PM | Message Detail
Wow. Diablo's percentage went up quite a bit since I last checked.
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:12:50 PM | Message Detail
No, if Master Hand wins, we all lose. Trust me, we all lose.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:17:02 PM | Message Detail
All but me, and I am all for winning.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:18:59 PM | Message Detail
No, you lose, too. We all lose. Even if you get points in your bracket, you lose.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:20:39 PM | Message Detail
I've already lost, so then I'll just be happy to lose in style. Go Master Hand.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:24:21 PM | Message Detail
No, there is no style to be had. Only misery and utter failure.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Robd007 | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:25:28 PM | Message Detail
YES Go Master Hand
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Lets go CATS!! Beat Ansem!! ALL YOUR BASE!!!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:37:40 PM | Message Detail
I'm surprised Diablo's not going to get 60%.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/14/2005 4:45:44 PM | Message Detail
Because I caught it...

Ridley 42.75% 25650
Diablo 57.25% 34350
TOTAL VOTES 60000
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/14/2005 5:04:38 PM | Message Detail
gurgle...


erm, go...master hand?
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/14/2005 5:08:07 PM | Message Detail
So what do we think the perfect count will be after this? Under a 1000 I would hope, but under 50%? And additionally, play the prediction game. I gotta say less than 50% had Diablo winning...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/14/2005 5:08:58 PM | Message Detail
605

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: Tjian | Posted: 5/14/2005 5:12:20 PM | Message Detail
I was just on D2 and i didn't see any spamming. Although it would be hard to be able to check every channel for it. :/
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Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: Tjian | Posted: 5/14/2005 5:12:44 PM | Message Detail
might as well take the last post, hoohah.
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Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
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