I think I will have to execute my bracket since Kefka won't get to the semifinal unless Mithos is much better than I expect (I think this is the 3rd time I post this in this topic but who cares).
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Just like everything quiet and beautiful on this planet, my thread was ruined by man. Sakura 26
Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.

It's entirely possible for Kefka to do a SSBM-like run, given the expected strength of the opposition. That's what he'll NEED to do, in fact.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

Whoa, whoa. Kefka dropped a lot from when I last checked up on the poll.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

Heh, at the 11:10 mark, Kefka was at 67.14%. In 3 hours and a half hours, he's lost 1.54%.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Haha, Mithos getting 35% on Kefka....that's so wrong, yet so funny.

Really, a crappy character like Mithos, getting 35% on an FF "legend".

Then again, I expected Kefka to suck, so meh.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kefka vs. Mithos - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Mithos (8/8)

mnm: Wait until you see Albedo's conversations with Jr. Those are pretty awresome too.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

meh, i figured Kefka would tank during the day, but he's dropping like a depth charge. yeesh. as for tomorrow, i'm saying that if Wesker gets about 60-61%, then Kefka will be safe. anything up to 65% will make for a close match with a slight edge towards Kefka. anything more than 65% and i will be very worried about Kefka making the Elite Eight.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093

Ruin Division: Round 1 - Match 10 – (4)Luca Blight vs. (5)Albert Wesker

Moltar’s Analysis

Luca
Game/Series Known From: Suikoden II

Luca is back, and this time, he looks ready to win.

Wesker
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil series

Another RE representative. This time it’s Wesker.

Put up your shields folks, this ride through Ruin could get ugly. It begins here with Luca vs. Wesker. Let’s get to analyzing…

First let’s look at the series these guys are from. Luca is from Suikoden II and Wesker is from RE. Hey, they were both in the Best Game Ever Contest, weren’t they! Let’s go look at those good ol’ extrapolated stats that we all love.

Resident Evil – 43rd
Suikoden II – 47th

Close, but I think the gap would be wider in a direct match between the two. RE gets the nod there. As for characters in past Contests, Wesker has Jill and Luca has….Luca. They were both in SC2K4 too!

Jill – 37th
Luca – 56th

Holy fodder Batman! Luca might be a Contest regular now, but he’s still weak as a baby. All Wesker has to do is be as strong as, or a little weaker than Jill to beat Luca. Is that possible? Sure is. Don’t be surprised if Luca takes this, but I’m expecting Wesker to do it. Still doesn’t change the fact that he could be pitifully weak though.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Wesker will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Luca 40% - Wesker 60%



Ulti’s Analysis

Go check out the beating Magus gave to Luca Blight last summer. I love Magus, but he has to be facing complete trash in order to break 80% on anyone. Add in that this match is essentially Suikoden 2 vs every mainstream Resident Evil fan, I doubt Blight has much of a chance. The beating Wesker will lay on blight is going to fuel every Wesker over Kefka debate imaginable too, you watch.

Prediction: Wesker with 64.45%



Soul’s Analysis

I am a fan of the Horror games. I like Resident Evil games, but I haven't got around to playing all of them yet. For some reason, this "Wesker" fellow is not ringing any bells. I'm probably going to get swarmed by that statement >_<

Luca is cult. Cult only wins when it's facing another cult (or Gordon Freeman). Wesker will win this one, and prove to be a force in this division. Kefka, you better watch out punk! Wesker will win with 62.37%



Outback’s Analysis

Who?

I don't play RE, I don't play Suikoden, I don't plan to play either. All I know is that < b>Albert Wesker</ b> is one of the best names ever.

Wesker 62.45 Luca 37.55



Inviso’s Analysis

Well…fanboys *****ed at Ghaleon getting his ass owned, and it made me feel so good inside. Now, it’s going to happen again. Luca Blight is from Suikoden, a series that is cult at best on Gamefaqs. He may have gotten into a contest before, but so did Tanner…so that’s not saying much. Wesker is from Resident Evil, and is quite a few of the games. He’s also been a playable character in Resident Evil 4, a game that has high chances of being game of the year 2005.

Again, this match should be pretty easy, as the only factor working against Wesker is the previous contest factor. With Nemesis doing quite respectably against a stronger foe that Luca, Albert Wesker is going to have a very easy time winning this match. But, it then comes down to how powerful of a character is he. If he manages to do decently, he could take out Kefka next round, and ensure a sweet little upset pick.

My Prediction: Albert Wesker with 68.22%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kefka vs. Mithos - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Mithos (8/8)

Judging from the 2004 stats, Kefka would be expected to get 70.88% on Luca Blight. I'd say that's pretty good on determining how high/low Wesker would be able to go. Although there's always the fact that it was adjusted... but yeah.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I can't not see Wesker getting 70%+ on Luca in my wildest dreams.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kefka vs. Mithos - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Mithos (8/8)

I'm fairly certain that strength and vote totals have some correlation. Matches with Link and Cloud have more votes than most other matches, matches with fodder (ex: Laharl vs. Vyse and most of this contest) have lower vote totals. There's a connection, no doubt, it's just something we can't easily quantify.

Oh, and I hereby declare my possition officially, all adjustments to the 2k4 stats are questionable at best, but most of them are utter crap. The only ones I would trust to any degree of certainty are Bowser's, the rest in the North division are shaky and the ones in the East division are just plain wrong. That is my official stance, notihng will change that short of Liquid Snake actually over performing his adjusted expectations on Sephiroth.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Slowflake:
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 2003 (49.99%)

A big WTF at that last one.

Back then people didn't use extrapolation. So that match was considered 50/50. People thought Sephiroth's "unexpected" owning of Mario was as impressive as Cloud's beating Link and Sonic.

I picked Sephiroth for that match, but in the Oracle topic explained that it was solely because of favoritism. I posted in the topic that Cloud should be expected to win with about 52%, and that you couldn't really fudge things to have Sephiroth be expected to win.


Heroic Viktor:
Magus got 82% on Luca, which may have involved some form on SFF. I mean, you are talking about two of maybe the five biggest badasses in all of RPGdom, so for some voters to choose Magus>Luca>pretty much everyone else would not be horribly shocking.

I have thought this as well, and many thought it back at the time. Why does everyone now feel that Luca's place in the standings is accurate?


Harrich:
Of course, that's me assuming strength = ability to attract votes.

Outside of Final Fantasy, I don't think we've such such a correlation surface in any big ways.
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www.SC2K5.com

Kefka's dropping like a rock. Again.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

It's entirely possible for Kefka to do a SSBM-like run, given the expected strength of the opposition. That's what he'll NEED to do, in fact.

If by expected strength, you mean that Kefka's the second best of a weak as (enter weak thing here) division, then yeah, you're right. There's a subtle difference between Kefka and SSBM.
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Jon Thomson - 8/8, today: Kefka, tomorrow: Wesker
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

cn, Link always gets a large turn out on his side, too. Frankly, if you look at the all-time records for most popular matches adn highest vote totals for indivdual matches they are clearly stacked in the favor of those on top.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

cn, Link always gets a large turn out on his side, too. Frankly, if you look at the all-time records for most popular matches adn highest vote totals for indivdual matches they are clearly stacked in the favor of those on top.

In large part because the strongest characters are the ones who have matches in late round. Late rounds will get higher vote totals.

As for Link, in 2K3--the highest vote total contest--Link did not have any non-Cloud matches in the top 16 for total votes. Link vs. Magus was 17th.

It seems to be more marquee matches that draw votes; and obscure characters failing to get votes, because few know them.
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www.SC2K5.com

I think the closer Mithos gets to Kefka, the better Lloyd looks to be for if/when he gets into a contest. We already have an idea or two about where Kefka lands, and we won't really have a clue which idea's right until the second round through Luca (who has now been accused again of being inaccurate as well)...so we may have to wait until the winner of the Ruin Division faces Ganondorf, and that's assuming he's not changed from 2k4, where his strength was determined from 2k3's stats...so after we get a clue of what happens there, Sephiroth then gets to face him and potentially screw up numbers like he's been known to do.

In other words, ****.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Oh, and my comment about strength = attracting voters to the polls...mostly tounge-in-cheek; it's bound to be true to a degree, there's no way around that, but I didn't mean for it to be taken seriously either.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I was just glancing at things further because this "vote totals" thing grabbed my attention.

http://www.sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19?fields=1&sort=totalvotes&type=DESC

The highest vote total 1st round match was Ganon vs. Tidus, which ranks 10 all-time. The highest vote total match for the first two rounds was Squall vs. Luigi. Needless to say, these matches didn't involve any of the Big Three.

In fact, I don't think Cloud has ever had a match in the first three rounds that equaled either of those. I think that the most total votes in first-2-rounds match that Link has ever had was against AiAi, which ranks 46th overall.
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www.SC2K5.com

I'm pretty sure Squall/Luigi was the highest-total match yet to not have two "Noble Nine" members, and that match had none.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Just in case I wasn't clear in what I was trying to say, the idea that strength=higher vote totals seems to be somewhat of a misconception.

No first round match with Link, Cloud or Sephiroth has ever been able to match Zelda vs. Lara Croft, of all matches. Only Cloud vs. CATS came close.

But that would be expected--the higher seeds face nobodies in the first round.

It would seem evident that matchups matter far more than the individual.
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www.SC2K5.com

Of course they have the bottom of the barrel opponents in their first round matches as well. And I'm not saying Lara isn't that low, but that seems to be more of an exception than a rule. Neither Tidus nor Ganon are bottom of the barrel, nor are Luigi and Squall. They are all good mid carders that hard very hard fought matches, that counts for something too, but other than those matches none of those characters tend to have people vote for them in droves.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

But that would be expected--the higher seeds face nobodies in the first round.

Oh, and just in case somebody gets confused and thinks that the reason for this is that weaker characters=less votes--that might partially be the case, but the problem with these lopsided matches is likely more one of the match itself being in an early round, uninteresting, and unexciting in terms of who might win.

A match between two competitors closer together seems to draw more votes than one between a powerhouse and a jobber, ceteris paribus.
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www.SC2K5.com

A correction--Sephiroth vs. Raziel is higher than Cloud vs. CATS, and thus closer to Zelda vs. Lara.

And I'm not saying Lara isn't that low, but that seems to be more of an exception than a rule.

Actually if you look at the matches it's not really an exception.

To just throw the most obvious stuff in there (if you looked, you could find plenty more stuff like this), Zero vs. Scorpion also outdid any 1st round match the Big Three have ever had. Master Chief vs. Felix is higher than any 1st round match Link has had. And so on.

but other than those matches none of those characters tend to have people vote for them in droves.

Because they're just not strong enough to blow people out, and don't get to face the true weaklings so that they can pad their vote totals.
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www.SC2K5.com

I call that match an exception because Lara isn't that strong. All the other matches you mention include two characters that at least have a fighting chance for the upper half at a minimum and even elite status for some of them (such as Zero).
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Question: Ultros or Mithos?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Mithos
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Forgot to comment...

I just want to say that if Wesker upsets Kefka, I'm going to kill HaRRicH for convincing me that I had too many upset picks.

...did I suggest to get rid of any particular upset you had though?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

"Because they're just not strong enough to blow people out, and don't get to face the true weaklings so that they can pad their vote totals."

Bowser and Liquid have both gotten chances at facing true weaklings and have gotten impressive numbers of votes in favor of them, but their vote totals still aren't like Sephs.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Kefka is dropping towards 64% now.
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Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*

About four and half hours ago, I remember Kefka being at 66.09%. I'm still in shock that he's fallen that much.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

As much as I hate to say it, Kefka is destined to be weak.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Kefka 63.99% 39653
Mithos 36.01% 22310
TOTAL VOTES 61963

Jesus, how did I miss the percentage point? Gah...regardless, Mithos has broke the 36% barrier.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

What would Wesker get on Mithos?
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Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*

I can't ****ing wait for tonight.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

What would Wesker get on Mithos?

6.37 bananas.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

We knew this beforehand though Chichiri; the only thing that could save Kefka from being weak is if The Picture Factor really can be effective AND if people would support the sprite pic of Kefka much more than they support lettuce and autistic women with gouged eyes.

We can't decide what Wesker'd get on Mithos yet.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Kefka breaks 40,000 and % is staying around 64-36.

Kefka 63.97% 40000
Mithos 36.03% 22531
TOTAL VOTES 62531

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Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*

Yeah, looks like it's finally coming to a halt. Now, since I said that, watch as THE CURSE kicks in and Mithos does a totally legit comeback for the win. Either way, we're starting the Ruin division with a bang. I'd do a Mentos pun with Mithos' name, but I can't think of anything funny enough.

Gotta sign off early, since I fell on my ass in the stairs (LOTS OF PAIN) and I have to go put some more ice on that. See ya... hopefully I'm not waking up to too large a win tomorrow. Speaking of which, is Wesker getting the day vote tomorrow?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

Ouch, sucks to hear that about the ass.

Wesker, by all means, should get whatever vote he wants against Luca, but Ghaleon steadily gained against Vergil during the day...so I dunno.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

A simple question. If Jill Valentine were in the Ruin Division, would anyone not pick her to win it?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Apparently not enough people know it, though, since people are expressing shock in regards to Kefka losing ground. I love him, but in a contest he's weak. Frankly, this sort of thing just strengthens my belief that we never should have made any adjustments for MM vs Link.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

I'd be tempted to take Ridley over Jill...rreeaallllyy tempted, but I'd take Jill too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Jill would win that without question.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I'd consider Ridley first, but probably go with Jill to be safe.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

i'd be REEEEEEEEALLLLLY tempted to put kefka/diablo over jill.

but then again, i hate RE.
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Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Wily||Sephy, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid
Kefka, Wesker, Bison, Diablo||Ganon, Ansem, Eggman, Kuja

If this were 2k3 I'd have no hesitation to say Jill. SInce it's not, it's iffy. She'd have a wonderful shot, no doubt, but I wouldn't just give it to her without a thought with so many unknowns.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Tons of faith in Jill, none in Kefka.

...what the hell.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I wouldn't have much confidence or faith in either. As Shake said a while back: In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

03 xstats have jill way over kefka, 04 have kefka over jill (adjusted) and jill barely over kefka (unadjusted).

that'd be a very danged close one.

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Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Wily||Sephy, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid
Kefka, Wesker, Bison, Diablo||Ganon, Ansem, Eggman, Kuja