It is transitive for the most part, because of the ginormous voting populace. There are exceptions, such as SFF and matches that were just plain anomalies (Mario should've never gotten 45% on Cloud, let alone won). But in most cases, transitivity is accurate down to the 2-3%.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

Kefka just keeps going lower and lower. How bad will he look by the end of this match? -_-
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Yep. Kiss my bracket goodbye for the ruin division finals... Unless we get Angel Kefka for the picture..... But I don't even think that will help much....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Kefka's been stalling over 66% for what seems like forever. More than two hours.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

First off, the gigantic shifts in faith that pccor with one measly change in percentage are downright hilarious. Everyone already knows that Kefka is weak, but the entire division sucks. Get a grip.

From: peebles | Posted: 5/11/2005 9:41:07 AM | Message Detail
You guys seem to like the extrapolated stats, but at the same time must be aware that voter preference is not generally transitive. Does the data so far suggest that voter preference in these contests is indeed highly transitive?

Highly transitive? No. It's more of a general range, though I think it's funny as hell when people try to adjust the Xsts to make them perfectly transitive when such a thing is nearly impossible to produce. If the exact same poll happens twice in a row and one voter changes his mind, the Xsts are no longer perfectly transitive, nor have they ever been.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

*occur

Damn, I need my computer (and my GODLY keyboard) back.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Yeah, but still you would have to think that Kefka would have done better than this on MITHOS. Unless I'm underestimating ToS popularity.... Outside of Halo, this is the WORST that a top seed has done in an opening match.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I don't expect Kefka to perform well in any of his matches, but that doesn't mean I think anyone in his division is beating him. Kefka sucks, but those other seven suck more. And after Ridley, Albedo, and Diablo are all gone after the first two rounds, Kefka's bracket support, 1 seed stigma, and match pics should make mroe than enough dfference.

Being a living example of match pictures actually making a difference must suck.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I honestly thought and still think that Wesker will WIN against Kefka. It's too bad that my bracket doesn't say that though. I almost put him down for the victory, but the board convinced me otherwise. I am quite the RE fanboy though, so I might be a little biased as far as Wesker's strength.

My prediction?

Wesker 55%
Kefka 45%

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence (8/8 - Current Match - Kefka)

Im starting to think Wesker = Nemesis in this contest. If that is true, Kefka will win by a margin.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I would pick Wesker over Nemmy in a heartbeat. I don't think it would really even be close.

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence (8/8 - Current Match - Kefka)

Considering we don't know where Nemesis is even at, that's not the best judgment to use here.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I would pick Wesker over Nemesis and expect Wesker to win with at least 70% because of SFF. I know Mithos could be underestimated, but am I the only one who loves ToS but thinks Mithos is a crappy villian? Of course not, then again maybe many of the ToS fans though "At least it's something from ToS" and vote for Mithos anyway.

Anyway Wesker is better than anyone else in his division (IMO) and he should win it. Plus if he wins over Kefka then I doubt we will have a perfect bracket this year.
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Just like everything quiet and beautiful on this planet, my thread was ruined by man. Sakura 26
Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

I just cant wait to see all the crying when Luca takes out Wesker..propelled by the diehard RPG supporters and the Suikoden Squadrons and of course, bracket and seed voters, pic voters, etc.
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever

You have to have a large fanbase to have a significant instance of SFF. I don't think a Wesker vs. Nemesis match qualifies for that. I'm sure Nemesis would hold his own in a match between them.

I don't see what the big deal about Wesker is... We SEE where Jill's popularity is and she's had WAY more exposure than Wesker has. You have to be a Resident Evil fan and/or have a good memory to even know who Wesker is. It's not like he's going against someone obscure in Kefka....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

You have to have a large fanbase to have a significant instance of SFF. I don't think a Wesker vs. Nemesis match qualifies for that. I'm sure Nemesis would hold his own in a match between them.

Not necessarily; I don't image that keeping Vyse from SFF'ing Ramirez. Regardless, I don't think Wesker/Nemesis would have much SFF worth noting.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Being a living example of match pictures actually making a difference must suck.

Too bad the match pictures don't make a significant difference, right? Hard to believe that people think Kefka getting a sprite will suddenly make him stronger.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Had I known Mithos or had Kefka faced someone I know, I likely would have voted against Kefka's ugly-ass mug. I'm definitely not the norm, but, I despise that Kefka pic.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Side-note, I think Kefka's actually winning the day-vote right now. Don't know how long this'll last, but Mithos is losing ground.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

What I noticed, too. Kefka's never done this before. Well, Mithos is no day vote magnet compared to Pac-Man, Crono or Knuckles.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

I haven't read the topic, but I have this to say: Kefka officially sucks.
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SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS in the Spring Contest.

Well, Mithos is no day vote magnet compared to Pac-Man, Crono or Knuckles.

Ouch.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Well, the thing is...The only people who would actually want Kefka to get his sprite are basically those who would have voted for him anyway.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I haven't read the topic, but I have this to say: Kefka officially sucks.

We knew that back in 2003, really.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Hey, Square isn't all that bad with the day vote. It's just that when opposed to Nintendo or Sonic, it just doesn't work.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

This is not a bad performance by Kefka at all, if he ends up doubling Mithos. Like Ulti said, there are no powerhouses in this division. I still think Kefka will either win the division or lose in the 2nd round. I can't see Ridley, Diablo, or Bison as serious threats to Kefka.

It's just that when opposed to Nintendo or Sonic, it just doesn't work.

I think Cloud would beg to differ.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

But you see Wesker as a threat??? Huh???
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Which match do you have in mind, Leonhart?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

I'd take M. Bison over Wesker, and I've already expressed my doubts in Bison. I do think Wesker'll make Kefka sweat some though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Yeap, I really think RE4 helped Wesker out a lot. But unless Kefka's lead goes to low 60's against Mithos, he's still the favorite next round.

I think Cloud would beg to differ.

He wins the day against any Nintendo character not named Link, anyway...
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

At the 10:00 mark, this match has 26567 votes. To compare to some other matches at the same time:

Sigma/Andross - 24360
Wily/Ultros - 27739
Lavos/Mother Brain - 26221
Liquid/Tenpenny - 27930
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

IIRC, Cloud lost ground with the day vote against Bowser and Samus. Fox and Pikachu are jobbers, and Mario... you all remember that one, right?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

Which match do you have in mind, Leonhart?

As Mumei said, Cloud wins the day vote against just about any Nintendo character not named Link. He's the anti-Crono, really. He does so weak in the early hours of the poll that he looks like a beast during the day.

I know he took the day vote from Samus last year, and he might've taken it from Sonic in 2003, too.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

He only does weak in the opening minutes. After that, it's business as usual to the point where he still falls during the days. Sonic is the only occurence I remember of a Square powerhouse beating a traditional day-vote hog.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

When the day vote began against Samus, Cloud was around 58.3%. He gradually and slowly gained percentage all day.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Oh well, I guess my memory was faulty on this one. Samus leading for 3 minutes must've been awesome... shame I miss the openings ;_;
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

From about the first hour into the match until the end, Cloud generally gains around 3-5% on his opponent. The early vote is definitely his weakest time because he generally holds his percentage at the end of the poll while gaining throughout the day.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Samus leading for 3 minutes must've been awesome... shame I miss the openings ;_;

Yeah, it was awesome seeing all of these Samus fans thinking she had a chance, and then seeing Cloud swiftly crush their hopes like it was nothing.

Quite nice, really.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

She'd have a chance if she didn't have to compare directly to either of those two monsters.

She kinda HAD to face one of them though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Kefka's doubling up Mithos right now.
Assuming Mithos=Luca, obviously wesker needs to double Luca... Why do I think that's going to be a 58-42 match?
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid

Heh, I was thinking the same thing. I don't see Wesker having a shot at Kefka.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker

Well, we'll find out in about 13 hours.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Kefka had slowly been gaining for a while, but he just lost .6% in the last five minutes.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Er, .06% rather.

There'd be serious cause for concern if he lost .6%.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Wesker will be lucky to get 47%, methinks.
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid

No, there's be blatant cheating, at this time of the day.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 08/08 - Matches: 08/08 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Kefka - Tomorrow: Wesker