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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 120
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:40:28 AM | Message Detail
The "screw you, finals" edition <3



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm



*Match Pictures*

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updator:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

!yawA tsoP
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:43:25 AM | Message Detail
Huzzah! 14 hours until Ruin!
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: outback | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:44:10 AM | Message Detail
OH ****

*goes to write analysis for Kefka/Mithos*
---
IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER! (TEAM ??????)
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: andaca | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:44:45 AM | Message Detail
Ah, finals. When everyone has a convenient and believable for never being available.
---
Honorary Spring 2005 Winner - Kerrigan.
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:45:35 AM | Message Detail
Ruin Division!!

Here we comes!!!!!

---
FFVI says "A Love Between Human and Esper".
Current Score: 6/7 Now: L. Snake vs O. Tenpenny
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:53:22 AM | Message Detail
Finals my foot.
Get exempted, the lot of you.

Score Entrants
Perfect 3708


I figure that drops below 3500 after Kefka/Mithos, and we drop down to under 1500 after the Ruin division's over.

---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:56:28 AM | Message Detail
It should drop to well under 1000. Plenty of people are going to have Luca Blight, Albedo, and Ridley winning their matches.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:59:01 AM | Message Detail
You don't get exempt from finals in college, at least not in any college I know of.

Mine are next week. Two of the four are at 8:00 in the morning. Joy.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:59:58 AM | Message Detail
It should drop to well under 1000. Plenty of people are going to have Luca Blight, Albedo, and Ridley winning their matches.

I pray that's the case, since I've got the exact opposite in all of them.

Luca/Wesker doesn't bother me in the least.
Albedo/Bison worries me somewhat.
Ridley/Diablo really worries me. It wouldn't if the seedings were reversed, but the insanity of it being a 2/7 matchup is what's got me.

*shrug*
3 days to this board becoming a flamefest.
If those matches go as I want them to, the next "tough pick" is Ocelot/Wily followed by Robotnik/Kuja.
From that point on, the bracket's clear sailing.
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: iGenesis | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:32:52 PM | Message Detail
And you're 100% confident that Diablo will prevail.
---
[=[_]=] NINTENDO DS
[+[_]::] 11.21.2004
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:44:08 PM | Message Detail
and Ridley winning their matches.

I think the point was to show why brackets would fall. You obviously meant to say Diablo here.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:44:41 PM | Message Detail
Just hours away from the Ruin Division, and just minutes away from this being needed.....
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:46:56 PM | Message Detail
Kefka better smash Mithos...

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:54:03 PM | Message Detail
Harrich! =p

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:55:07 PM | Message Detail
He he he. Make that four in a row.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:56:25 PM | Message Detail
I think the thought of Nemmy being strong is laughable. Ultros is a joke, for sure, but Nemmy is too.

What in the world gives you that idea?
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:56:25 PM | Message Detail
The Robotnik/Not Robotnik four-pack will put the finishing touch on most of the perfects. There won't be many when the first round is over.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:57:06 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't expect Nemesis to be very strong at all.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:57:37 PM | Message Detail
What in the world makes you think Nemmy is worth talking about?
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:57:49 PM | Message Detail
Well, no kidding. I never said he was, but to say he's a "joke" is ludicrous.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:58:26 PM | Message Detail
The only joke in this contest is CATS.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: outback | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:58:44 PM | Message Detail
Should we re-post the analyses in here?
---
IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER! (TEAM ??????)
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:58:54 PM | Message Detail
He's worth talking about more than Ultros is, that's for sure.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:58:55 PM | Message Detail
He isn't going to be higher than what we would consider the "joke" characters.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:59:48 PM | Message Detail
Considering CATS is a joke character and Nemesis would beat him by alot then yes he is higher.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:00:01 PM | Message Detail
More like a Crash Bandicoot joke than a CATS joke, but a joke nonetheless. Then again, Crash would probably beat half the field in this contest, so maybe joke wasn't the word I was looking for.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:00:05 PM | Message Detail
He isn't going to be higher than what we would consider the "joke" characters.

Considering Nemesis would be stronger than Ultros...Yes, he is.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:00:19 PM | Message Detail
How strong do you see Ocelot/Wily? If Ultros is equal to Laharl, Wily is close to Kos-Mos and I think Ultros would be closer to Crash Bandicoot than Laharl.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:00:47 PM | Message Detail
My final is so much fun!

http://www.rpi.edu/~zukerm/MATH-4010/Final.pdf
---
"There's room for only one Snake, and one big boss!" - Liquid Snake
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:00:56 PM | Message Detail
I'm not sure what to think about Nemesis because of Jill; I know me and Leonhart agree the stats under-estimate her, but I think we disagree on how much she's under-estimated. I'm also curious if the love that RE4 has resurged the entire RE fanbase, thus possibly making Nemesis > Jill 2k4 and yet Jill still be stronger than Nemesis (really not likely to that degree though; that's just my example to make it seem more clear). Either way, can we agree that Nemesis floor would be, say...Pac-Man?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:01:51 PM | Message Detail
and I think Ultros would be closer to Crash Bandicoot than Laharl.

I don't see Ultros being that close to Kefka.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:02:36 PM | Message Detail
Considering Nemesis would be stronger than Ultros...Yes, he is.

I never said he would be weaker than Ultros. I'm merely saying that thinking he'll be significantly stronger is absolute insanity.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:03:41 PM | Message Detail
Oh, Nemesis will be stronger than Ultros to the point that Ocelot can beat Wily.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:04:17 PM | Message Detail
Where do you think he is then? Im convinced Ultros is somewhere between Vyse and Laharl. I think he could beat Laharl by more than 3 or 4 percent which would put him above Conker at least. Jak/Crash are the next two characters up.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:05:59 PM | Message Detail
Right around Laharl is fine. To think that Ultros would break the fodder line is pushing it a bit.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:07:07 PM | Message Detail
The people have spoken...

The fans have demanded it...

The kiddies have tried to stop it...protesting to Ceej with a bogus petition...

No it is not a re-release of Deadly Towers...it is...

Steve Illumina Speaks

You know it, noobs! It is the irreverent column that mocks the contest that geeky gamers live breathe and talk in the school cafeterias about for weeks. It can be fav games...it can be fav characters...or villains...or heroes...or joke bosses...or box art. It dont much matter...nerds will flock to it like fat kids to Whoppers. Now, lets get a move on, shall we!

Continuing with the Narshe 'Ruin' Division...

(1)Kefka vs (8)Mithos
AKA: The Clown Prince vs The Future of Namco
Steve's Pick: Kefka
Newbie Pick: Kefka
Kiddie Pick: Kefka
Non Gamer Pick: Depends on the pic used, plus the mood of the voter...plus the position of the sun in the sky...plus the number of cappucinos they have that day...plus a final coin flip.

Comments: We continue this tourney with FFVI's finest, my personal favorite of the 32 entrants, nudging only Dr. Wily for the honor, taking out another midcarder 8 seed from an up and coming series...

Kefka has been the perennial victim of bad luck and bad seedings. Having to face the likes of Crono, a generic bum if there ever was one, and losing because heroes always beat villians. What a bunch of poppycrock!

At last, this spring, this very spring, Lord Kefka will get his due respect, and he will win AT LEAST twice, and for the sake of parts of my bracket, and for all that is holy, even more than that...

Of course, the xstats geeks and the pragmatists will say, oh he did not get 89% of the vote so he wont beat Lavos, or Bison, or Liquidity. Rubbish. Nonsense! That kind of talk makes me laugh. A win is a win is a win. It only takes 1 mere vote to win. Too many nerdboys forget that when they overhype midcarders like Ocelot and Lavos.

Mithos will get sympathy votes, and thats about it. This annoys me...cause it prevents Kefka from making a true statement of the power of his utter evil. And it incites the doubting kiddies to start their 'Kefka is weak' rhetoric.

Kefka by 80%, give or take a few...and tune in tomorrow for the 1 match in round 1 that worries me, but if my gamble pays off, will really break the backs of the spirits of my fellow elites, all you who turned your backs on the superior evil..the superior game series...yah u know who i am talkin about!

Quotes: Kefka: "There's SAND on my boots!" (For Slowflake with love) Mithos: "Aint nuttin on my boots..."
---
SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:09:23 PM | Message Detail
If Ultros = Laharl, Nemmy needs to be at 19.72% on Link for Ocelot to equal Wily, which is too high for Nemmy, in my opinion.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:12:29 PM | Message Detail
I put Ultros equal to Conker. This puts Wily slightly ahead of Kos-Mos.
I put Nemesis equal to Nukem. This puts Ocelot slightly below Kefka.

I have Wily winning around 53-47.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:13:28 PM | Message Detail
You've got Ultros way too high, if you ask me.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:13:54 PM | Message Detail
I think I got them both too high personally.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:14:46 PM | Message Detail
15.65% is probably a bit high for Ultros, but if he's under Laharl it's not by much.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:18:17 PM | Message Detail
Now that I think about it, Im moving Ultros back to Sam Fisher and Nemesis back to Kain. That put Wily right equal to Bomberman and Ocelot right below Bomberman. That makes Wily winning 50.4-49.6. I seriously cant put either Ultros or Nemmy any lower.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:19:55 PM | Message Detail
As a side note,

1.26 * Ultros on Link = Nemmy on Link if Wily = Ocelot
.79 * Nemmy on Link = Ultros on Link if Wily = Ocelot
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:20:53 PM | Message Detail
This is assuming I did all my calculations correct, but man Bomberman level just looking at it looks about right for both Wily and Ocelot.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:23:14 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, Nemesis at Kain level and Ultros at Sam Fisher level means Nemesis wins 60-40. That sounds about right too.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:23:28 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr05/b09.jpg

Eh, not bad. Nothing spectacular though.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:24:21 PM | Message Detail
Stretched FMV Kefka vs Female Mithos
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:24:27 PM | Message Detail
Its like a day at Neverland Ranch with Michael J. and his boy of the day.
---
Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:25:49 PM | Message Detail
Oh my. Not that Kefka needed any help, but I think Ceejus wants a blow-out.
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:26:04 PM | Message Detail
The only problem is that Mithos doesn't look evil, creepy, or anything. He just looks like...Colette.

And that's never good.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
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