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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 119
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 1:50:57 PM | Message Detail
No one is overestimating Ridley to that degree either. It isn't going to take a lot to beat Diablo.

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From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 1:53:27 PM | Message Detail
^Likewise on the other side of the fence. We don't know what will end up happening. It most likely will be a close match, although I wouldn't be surprised if it went either way. There's justification either way.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/10/2005 1:55:30 PM | Message Detail
Wesker's first round match will be good, because he happens to be facing someone who's been there before. What he does will tell us more about his chances against Kefka. But I doubt he'll be worth that much... Kefka would have a good, close match with JILL.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/10/2005 1:56:41 PM | Message Detail
^Who didn't have her own documentary.

Ph33r.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 1:57:42 PM | Message Detail
I think Kefka will have it pretty easy until his match against Ridley/Diablo/Bison.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:01:52 PM | Message Detail
Pffft.... I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Wesker is more JC Denton than Jill. Wesker's ONLY saving grace might be Barry's yelling of his name in the original RE.

"WEeEeEeeSSSKKEEERRrRrRRRRrRr"

(It sounded like he was saying it while he was shaking his head really fast... <_<)
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:05:20 PM | Message Detail
At the 14:00 mark, this match has 44842 votes. To compare to the other Jenova Division matches at the same time:

Sephiroth/Ramirez - 55976
Vergil/Ghaleon - 43419
Lavos/Mother Brain - 42856
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:26:12 PM | Message Detail
What is Jill projected to get on Luca Blight?

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From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:27:35 PM | Message Detail
It's impossible to determine; the unadjusted statistics are clearly inaccurate, and the adjusted ones rely on post hoc reasoning.
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"There's room for only one Snake, and one big boss!" - Liquid Snake
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:37:19 PM | Message Detail
Jill would get approximately 70% on Luca Blight.
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:41:53 PM | Message Detail
Samus would beg to differ with you. Honestly, the odds of you knowing her and not Ridley aren't that great

WTF? That has to be one of the most outlandish statements made around here in a while.

The odds of you knowing Samus but not Ridly are HUGE. It would be no exaggeration whatsoever to say that the vast majority of people who know Samus, have never heard of Ridley. i.e., if you took a poll of every gamer and asked them "Have you heard of Samus/Ridley?", the vast majority of those who answer "Yes" for Samus would say "No" to Ridley.


Slowflake:
Tenpenny looking like CATS? No one. The most pessimistic scenario was something like 75-25.

Not true. The spread was at 50 and many picked Liquid.

BTW, I think the Diablo to Gordon Freeman comparison is terrible. I don't see why people still insist on making it.

Slow, how can you say that Diablo is no Starcraft, right after comparing him to Gordon Freeman? Diablo != Starcraft. Diablo != Gordon Freeman.
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From: swirldude | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:43:56 PM | Message Detail
If you know of Samus, you might know Ridley, just not his name.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:45:53 PM | Message Detail
Diablo to any PC character does not seem that outlandish to me. He certainly doesn't contain anything huge over his other PC counterparts that have done horribly in the past.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:45:55 PM | Message Detail
You should at least recognize Ridley's image if you've played a Metroid game. About the only way you don't at least KNOW of Ridley is if you know Samus solely from Smash Brothers or you've played the two games Ridley does not appear in.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:47:09 PM | Message Detail
BTW, I think the Diablo to Gordon Freeman comparison is terrible. I don't see why people still insist on making it.

Perhaps Duke Nukem would be a better comparison: A recognizable image and a game named after him.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:48:16 PM | Message Detail
It would be no exaggeration whatsoever to say that the vast majority of people who know Samus, have never heard of Ridley.

It's very strange that you call my statement outlandish and then you go on to say something like this. Are you saying the vast majority of people have never even played a Metroid game?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:48:26 PM | Message Detail
Maybe a Duke Nukem closer to his prime.....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:49:01 PM | Message Detail
Mumei and Chichi, you picked Ghaleon?

Tsk tsk...
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: creativename | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:49:30 PM | Message Detail
Ah, well yeah if we're talking about character recognition rather than name recognition than Ridley would be much closer to Samus. But still not in a "majority" sense I would think. Samus has very high awareness among the gaming population overall. A specific boss in the Metroid games wouldn't.
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:52:39 PM | Message Detail
My statement was not outlandish at all. At *all*. Though I was speaking about name recognition.

Are you saying the vast majority of people have never even played a Metroid game?

Actually this is true. Whether its true at GameFAQs, I don't know, and that's the only thing that matters to us. But among gamers (not casual gamers; mid-level or higher gamers), the statement most people have not played a Metroid game, is true. It would be impossible for it to be otherwise.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:53:50 PM | Message Detail
I was talking about the vast majority who also knew Samus, not the vast majority in general.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:53:57 PM | Message Detail
Actually this is true. Whether its true at GameFAQs, I don't know, and that's the only thing that matters to us. But among gamers (not casual gamers; mid-level or higher gamers), the statement most people have not played a Metroid game, is true. It would be impossible for it to be otherwise.

I actually hadn't even played any Metroid games until last year. And even now I haven't gotten very far in one.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:56:19 PM | Message Detail
I was talking about the vast majority who also knew Samus, not the vast majority in general.

So was I.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:56:26 PM | Message Detail
About Ridley, I think it's more or less how MUCH of a Metroid game people have played. Besides briefly appearing in the beginning of Super Metroid and Metroid Prime, Ridley has no presence in the actual GAMES of the Metroid series (said that so Heroic Mario won't barge in with Ridley backstory). With the focus so heavily on Samus in the series, it's quite possible for gamers to have played Metroid games and not really know who Ridley is, barring the fact that they etched his early apperances in Super Metroid and Metroid Prime to memory.

Not saying this is entirely true for a lot of gamers, but it IS possible. We're assuming that most gamers have played and BEATEN the Metroids....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 2:58:28 PM | Message Detail
I see nothing farfetched in assuming that a large number of people who will vote for Samus have both played and completed at least one Metroid title. I would assume even more. It matters very, very little about what the mass public things. It is all about GameFAQs, where Metroid would be at its strongest as opposed to any other gaming website.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Tai | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:18:51 PM | Message Detail
I still think that either way, since two Metroid villians (Isn't that like..one of the few games to get two villians?), they must be recognizeable. I don't know...

The fact too that Mother Brain did so well against Lavos helps Ridley as well.

I still have confidence Ridley will win.
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:19:25 PM | Message Detail
It is all about GameFAQs, where Metroid would be at its strongest as opposed to any other gaming website.

This is certainly true.


BTW, I would agree that Duke Nukem seems to be a much better comparison to Diablo than Gordon Freeman.
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:20:45 PM | Message Detail
And Tenpenny finally gets it under 80%... can he keep it there? For the love of the sacred bovine I hope so.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:24:27 PM | Message Detail
since two Metroid villians (Isn't that like..one of the few games to get two villians?)

The only games with two villains in this contest are (I believe) Metroid, FFVI, and Kingdom Hearts.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:26:56 PM | Message Detail
The Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil series have two villains apiece.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:36:40 PM | Message Detail
And SOME people thought 80% was crazy.

I know I said it already, but meh.
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Liquid Snake vs. Tenpenny - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (7/7)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:36:55 PM | Message Detail
I thought I explicitly mentioned that I didn't think Diablo would be the next Gordon.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:38:24 PM | Message Detail
It pains me to say it, but I definitely overestimated Tenpenny.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:39:00 PM | Message Detail
Metroid might be at it's strongest here but the games themselves were utter crap in the Spring Contest compared to Samus.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:41:40 PM | Message Detail
The Metroid games went up against another Nintendo title every time. You cannot say they didn't perform well when there clearly isn't enough to say that they performed like crap. The adjusted X-sts look about correct to me, as far as Metroid games placement. And if StarCraft were adjusted to show the cheated votes, you would see that Super Metroid and StarCraft wouldn't be that far apart. I think it is very safe to say that the Metroid titles would have performed far better had they not been matched up with Mario and Zelda games.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:45:59 PM | Message Detail
Liquid is certainly on a drop in percentage right now.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:52:10 PM | Message Detail
Ruin Division: Round 1 - Match 9 – (1)Kefka vs. (8)Mithos

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy 6

That lovable ball of lettuce is back for the villain contest. This time, he’s a 1 seed!

Mithos
Game/Series Known From: Tales of Symphonia

I’m afraid of saying anything about him hear, just in case I spoil anything. Then again, what hasn’t been spoiled for you poor ToS fans?

Oh boy, enter the Ruin Division. This Division is possibly the scariest one since the last Spring Contest. Remember, the bottom division? With Starcraft and SSBM? That one. Here, brackets will bleed and stats will shatter. Perfects will fade, crying and whining will rise again.

Of course though, you can’t just enter a division with a BANG!. Halo/Starcraft did it, but no match with Kefka and Mithos can follow in those footsteps. Kefka isn’t very strong in the Summer Contest, so it is a bit surprising that he nailed a 1 seed here. Liquid would probably be much more deserving of it. Mithos hails from ToS, and if a ToS character like Mithos can get in here, then maybe 1 or 2 can get in the Summer Contest. I mean, we already have many CT, Sonic and Mega Man characters, and the Final Fantasy guys and gals can have their own division!

Uh, here, let me try and stay on track…Kefka will beat Mithos….now to end before I lose track of myself again. I tend to lose track of a lot of things. One minute I could be talking about the match, another it could be something completely different, possibly even something not GameFAQs rel-ALAYEELAYAEEYAEEEYEAYYE!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kefka will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kefka 65% - Mithos 35%



Ulti’s Analysis

Way to go, CJayC. You just spoiled Tales of Symphonia for everyone who hasn't played it yet. Why he isn't being called Yggdrasil, who knows.

Anyway, while Mithos may put up a good fight, I don't think he's as strong as Kefka. RPGs not from Squaresoft rarely stand up to Square in these things.

Prediction: Kefka with 58.89%, which will oddly be the biggest victory he's ever had.
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Liquid Snake vs. Tenpenny - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (7/7)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/10/2005 3:52:25 PM | Message Detail
Soul’s Analysis

Kefka is from FF6. A game which a lot of people consider is the best FF game ever. To me, the best would have to be FFX. Why? Because it's the only one that I have played, even if it was only for 10 minutes.

Mithos is from ToS. Again, another RPG game that I refuse to play. Well, refuse would be too harsh really. A game that I do not want to play.

You know what that means? Since I have no clue who these guys are, it's time to relay on the stats and popular opinion. We all know Kefka is not that strong of a character. I'm sure Ulti will provide you with
the X-Stats of Kefka. Just got word Ulti is not using X-Stats. OH well, I'm sure you all know he's not the strongest FF villain. Although I'm sure Kefka has this match won, this information will be key to his next matches. He is overseeded, to say it bluntly. He should not have got a 1 seed. The 1 seed should have gone to Ridley and Diablo should have had the 2 seed. That way, we will see those two in the Division finals. Instead, we have the meant for 3 seed Kefka taking the top spot.

Anyway, Kefka wins with 64.06%.



Outback’s Analysis

Spoilers again




The craziest evil villain of all time vs. someone who wants to **** his sister
Please, Ceej, no Lettuce Kefka this time


Kefka Palazzo of FFVI is my personal favorite villain of all time; right from the quote that we all know and love ("Ahem! I've got SAND on my boots!") to the final battle, Kefka was a villain that kept me into the game. Although his final battle was unremarkable in terms of difficulty, that doesn't take much away from him, especially considering his opponent's final battle was just as lackluster if not easier.

Mithos Yggdrasiil of ToS is another villain who comes from a great game, but I didn't feel the connection to him as I did to Kefka. Mithos was just a plot device to me, and had nothing on characters like Botta, Yuan, or Rodyle. His whole motivation is his sister, and, like Kefka, the final fight against him is rather easy. I'm voting Kefka in this match, and Kefka will win.

Kefka 73.55 Mithos 27.45


Inviso’s Analysis

And today, the Ruin division begins with the only match that no one has in question, at all. Kefka is the villain of FFVI, a very popular game on Gamefaqs, while Mithos is from Tales of Symphonia, a decent seller on the Gamecube, but nothing more than cult. This match was over before it began…but the big point of it is how well Mithos can do on Kefka. This will help determine Kefka’s strength for his next few matches.

Now, you see…Kefka…is a weak bastard. In 2003, he narrowly beat Pacman…a character more pathetic than sandy boot boy. Then he was gang-shanked by one person, in the form of Crono, before getting beaten against by Knuckles in 2004. Now, Kefka…most likely won’t win his division. He may be the one seed, but come on, he’s a pathetic choice. Liquid Snake should’ve been here…evened out the bracket so people could get it perfect. If Kefka has trouble with Mithos, he’ll have trouble with his next opponent, and could definitely lose.

My Prediction: Kefka with 74.06%
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Liquid Snake vs. Tenpenny - Bracket: Liquid - Vote: Liquid (7/7)
From: Tai | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:10:24 PM | Message Detail
Tenpenny is still being tripled. :-)

Wily is toast.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:11:00 PM | Message Detail
Wily is toast.

...

Tai, what the hell?

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:16:16 PM | Message Detail
Tenpenny's looking pretty damn weak. No way I'd pick him over Lavos now.

I bet even Raikov could take Tenpenny. Who else thinks so?
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From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:17:22 PM | Message Detail
Snake vs Tanner lite.
From: Tai | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:17:31 PM | Message Detail
...

Tai, what the hell?


I don't think Wily can beat Ocelot, now.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:20:50 PM | Message Detail
Why? This isn't a sign of Liquid's strength. It's a sign of Tenpenny's weakness. I fail to see how this match could give you greater confidence about Ocelot/Wily. We know well that Liquid was a strong competitor in these contests to begin with. I always assumed he got help from having the "Snake" portion in his name to boot. But nothing today has changed my opinion on Ocelot/Wily. Yes, I have Ocelot in my bracket but I'm not feeling any more/less confident than I was before. I don't see how you could either.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:21:05 PM | Message Detail
The whole argument that Diablo is more recognizable than Ridley because he appears on the box of the original game is ridiculous.

Appearing on the box (and quite different from his appearance in the game) of a game released in 1996 is NOT going to help Diablo at all.

That's like saying Ridley's a shoe-in because he's featured prominently on Super Metroid's box.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:33:45 PM | Message Detail
Furhtermore, Diablo is a very comparable case to Duke Nukem, as has been pointed out earlier.

Has the series named after him? Check.

Has his mug right on the box? Check.

More recognizable than Ridley? Maybe.

The difference? Duke Nukem is the main character of his series. Diablo is a boss fight.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:34:44 PM | Message Detail
And Duke Nukem games are nowhere near as well liked as Diablo games.
From: PugTheNinja | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:48:33 PM | Message Detail
i have never played a metroid game. I know who samus is but before the contest had never heard or seen ridley before.i am a casual gamer.
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Pug
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 5:04:33 PM | Message Detail
I can't believe the trend now is to compare Diablo to DUKE NUKEM!!!! What the hell? Even though Duke Nukem may be the BEST comparison for Diablo, doesn't mean it's a GOOD comparison. You guys act like we have tons of PC characters to collect data from. We've had all of like what, 2-3 examples of PC characters? Just because they are PC doesn't mean they all are comparable. It's obvious Diablo is a unique situation, just like Starcraft was, just how I believe Gordon Freeman is. Gordon Freeman isn't as popular as his game not because he is a PC character. It's because he is Gordon Freeman. Until I see 100 examples of PC characters not being close to their games, I'm gonna decline all the use of comparisons and continue to look at each match individually.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 5:04:48 PM | Message Detail
I must be the exception then. I'd never played a Metroid game until Prime, and I knew who Ridley was. I recognized him right off the bat in the Super Smash Brothers Melee intro.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
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