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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 119
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/10/2005 4:48:27 AM | Message Detail
This gets funnier and funnier as the votes pour in. Tenpenny's proving he's worth just that - a dime.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/10/2005 5:05:52 AM | Message Detail
And just because I can't let this slide by:

From: Starion | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:04:25 PM | #135
What was wrong with the second Paper Mario? I personally thought that was better.

It tried to be too much like crappy Earthbound. Chapter 2 anyone? It's as if they all went on a crack trip. The only high points are the audience system and Bowser. For the rest, it was not only Earthbound-ish, but far less memorable. You can't tell me Hooktail > Koopa Bros., for instance.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 5/10/2005 5:12:01 AM | Message Detail
And SOME people thought 80% was crazy...
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/10/2005 5:42:02 AM | Message Detail
Wow. I knew Tenpenny would suck, but that's just hilarious.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/10/2005 6:59:42 AM | Message Detail
Chapter 2 is easily the worst part of PM2. Past that, it's pure awesomeness. Especially Chapter 3.

And man, Tenpenny is a piece of crap. I never expected him in a million years to do this bad.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Starion | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:28:56 AM | Message Detail
The percentages have been relatively stable for a while now. It's doubtful Tenpenny will get significant support for the rest of the match. I guess Tenpenny must be an extremely weak character. Where does this place him in the character rankings?
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.
From: outback | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:34:38 AM | Message Detail
Chapter 3 in Paper Mario 2 is without a doubt my favorite RPG experience ever.
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IT'S COMMANDER BAUKER!
http://img132.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img132&image=bawk8ko.jpg
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 8:46:35 AM | Message Detail
Holy crap, Tenpenny sucks. Liquid's making him look like JC Denton.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:07:52 AM | Message Detail
HOLY ****. I thought it would be asking a bit much for a tripling. I never expected Tenpenny to be in joke range. Maybe Liquid was actually underestimated by the stats.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:09:13 AM | Message Detail
Last night, Tenpenny fit perfectly between CATS and Ryo for awhile...things haven't improved much, if any, since then.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:09:21 AM | Message Detail
Paper Mario 2 put me AND my little brother to sleep faster than Nyquil.

zzzzzzzz..... One of the most boring games I've ever played. And for a Mario game, that's a terrible, terrible feature.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:09:44 AM | Message Detail
Wasn't Tenpenny one the characters that people were arguing in favor of the most when I released my list of characters that could be below CATS?

LAMERS!
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:11:11 AM | Message Detail
So....ehhh...Lopen. How about that Tenpenny against Lavos, eh? EH?
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http://img163.echo.cx/img163/8571/wowscrnshot0122051856460rr.jpg
http://picturebin.com/mp3/Captain_Placeholder.wav
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:11:12 AM | Message Detail
If anything, Liquid's actually OVER-estimated by the 2k4 stats; between Solid **** and whether Mega Man should have been adjusted up or not, it's quite possible that Liquid is a lil' bit weaker than our stats show...and that only makes Tenpenny look worse and worse.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:12:27 AM | Message Detail
Seeing this match makes me wonder about Wesker's chances now... Unless there's racism going on in this match. <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:13:21 AM | Message Detail
Wasn't Tenpenny one the characters that people were arguing in favor of the most when I released my list of characters that could be below CATS?

I'll go ahead and 'fess up; I stand corrected there. Could this match give us any clue about how CJ would do, or should we just acknowledge that most/any villain from a GTA game is gonna suck?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:15:53 AM | Message Detail
Looks like that underdog poll might be accurate at the low end with CATS > Ultros > Tenpenny; hopefully it's accurate at the high end, too.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:16:24 AM | Message Detail
Unless the voting for this is extremely racist, I dont see why CJ should do much less than Tommy V.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:21:50 AM | Message Detail
Looks like that underdog poll might be accurate at the low end with CATS > Ultros > Tenpenny; hopefully it's accurate at the high end, too.

CATS may have got third place there, but CATS will almost always get his votes in any poll...a multi-choice poll only helps him; CATS would lose to Ultros and Tenpenny. However, MH > Bison > Ultros > OT would be an interesting order, if that poll's accurate much...either way, it doesn't help M. Bison's cause.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:25:04 AM | Message Detail
Hehehe Ceej picked Da Brain and fell off the leaderboard...

And Tenpenny is getting raped...now all must know the power of Liquidity...

And only 3700 perfects left...should drop under 3000 today cause of clueless GTA kiddies... haha

8-0 for me woohoo...Bein an Elite is nice, eh?
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:25:12 AM | Message Detail
I'll go ahead and 'fess up; I stand corrected there. Could this match give us any clue about how CJ would do, or should we just acknowledge that most/any villain from a GTA game is gonna suck?

I think it's the latter. GTA: San Andreas itself might be a midcarter in a game-competition. The characters (While I personally like them and prefer Tenpenny over Liquid Snake) just aren't memorable. They don't stick, don't crawl under your skin and stay with you for months. They generally just fade away.

GTA games aren't story-driven. That one incredible chase is more likely to stay fresh inside your mind then any of the characters.
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http://img163.echo.cx/img163/8571/wowscrnshot0122051856460rr.jpg
http://picturebin.com/mp3/Captain_Placeholder.wav
From: Mumei | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:30:13 AM | Message Detail
Wasn't Tenpenny one the characters that people were arguing in favor of the most when I released my list of characters that could be below CATS?

I didn't argue with you because I had no clue who Tenpenny was. I have to confess that I thought that he was from a cult game.

*cough*

<_< >_>
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:39:48 AM | Message Detail
Guess we won't see too much shifting in brackets until Luca versus Wesker.

GTA's characters don't make the game -- its hooker-beating, Haitian-killing, violent attitude is the star of the show. No one from GTA is strong in that regard.

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/10/2005 9:40:32 AM | Message Detail
If MM performed as he should have against Link this puts Tenpenny below JC Denton
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:38:51 AM | Message Detail
And XD at Ulti. His bias is making him remember the wrong numbers... you're waaaaay too proud for one with no self-esteem.

It's more finals burnout than anything else. I know we had ~7200-ish after one of these matches.

Got a Europe 1 final tomorrow morning at 8 AM, then I'm finally DONE.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/10/2005 10:59:13 AM | Message Detail
The perfects should really start to drop off over the next few days...after the Kefka/Mithos match, we're looking at three in a row where the lower seed is either the favorite, or is a strong contender. If Wesker, Bison, and Diablo were to all win...I think we'd easily be under 1000 perfects remaining.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:01:02 AM | Message Detail
I just realized Wesker wasn't the 4-seed in that match. Huh...yeah, we very well could have three in a row.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:02:08 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:04:38 AM | Message Detail
Like I said in the other topic, plenty of people are going to pick Blight, Albedo, and Ridley to win their matches. We should see well under 1000 perfect before the Ruin Division's first round is over.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:04:51 AM | Message Detail
I need it to go wesker/bison/diablo and hopefully we have less than 1000 like you and ulti are saying.
i'm being a bit more conservating and saying 1500, but it's essentially the same.
i WANT it to really drop, to around 500 or so, but that's wishful thinking, i fear.
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:10:50 AM | Message Detail
It will be below 500 after Robotnik/Sin.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:11:51 AM | Message Detail
It'll hopefully be down to <25 after Robotnik/Kuja.

just HOW many of you people are putting the glove again?!
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:13:25 AM | Message Detail
"glove, again", rather.

it needs the comma.
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:13:35 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, Robutt/Sin will own a lot of perfects, probably mine as well if I make it that far. I'm still pretty confident that Sin can win, but it will be very difficult.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:14:56 AM | Message Detail
Believe it or not, Liquid is actually increasing his percentage. He's making his way up to 81%.

Yeah, I rescind my remarks about being unsure who would win between Lavos and Tenpenny.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:15:00 AM | Message Detail
My predictions for perfects in the future:

~1000 after Ridley/Diablo
~500 after Robotnik/Sin
~350 after Kuja/Master Hand
~200 after Ocelot/Wily
~100 after Bison/Ridley/Diablo
~75 after Robotnik/Sin/Kuja
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: octoinky | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:18:04 AM | Message Detail
Figure there'll be 3000 perfects going into the wesker/bison/diablo trio.

Now take a look at prediction percentages of players close to the top of the rankings.. I'm going to guess the following

65% wesker
60% bison
40% diablo

That string of events leaves 468 perfects.

Through Ansem/CATS and Robotnik/Sin, assuming we don't see any upsets there will still be under 300 perfects after round 1. If Sin wins, under 100
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:21:19 AM | Message Detail
As of the 11:15 mark, this match has 31994. To compare to the other matches in the Jenova Division at this same time:

Sephiroth/Ramirez - 43913 (Sephiroth by himself has more than this match at this time)
Vergil/Ghaleon - 33851
Lavos/Mother Brain - 30065

Anyone think it's possible that Liquid is SFFing Tenpenny? After all, we saw Solid Snake deliver a beatdown of even higher magnitude against a character from a similar genre.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:21:45 AM | Message Detail
Mathematically, yes. However, you forgot that people with a perfect bracket are generally more skilled and less likely to miss a match.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:22:40 AM | Message Detail
There's no SFF, Tenpenny's just a wuss.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:25:18 AM | Message Detail
Considering the GTA series is supposed to be stronger here than the MGS series (in terms of games), it'd be hard for me to buy OT being SFF'd much, if at all...but it shouldn't be ruled out, either. I think it'd only be minor if he did get SFF'd though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:28:19 AM | Message Detail
Legend of Zelda is more popular overall here than Mario, but that still didn't stop Mario 3 from owning LoZ.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:31:43 AM | Message Detail
That's franchise-to-game, which isn't always goin' to be too accurate. Likewise, the game-to-character comparison I made isn't gonna be 100% spot-on, either, but I think LoZ hardly suffered SFF against SMB3. Likewise, I think OT is hardly suffering SFF (or rather, under-performance is what I'd rather call this match than SFF) from Liquid.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:33:21 AM | Message Detail
Well, I personally think that Solid Snake would beat characters like Vercetti, Max Payne, and the like worse than he would be expected to stat-wise as well. They appeal to the same kind of fan, methinks.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:37:39 AM | Message Detail
Well, Tenpenny's slowly gaining percentage now. Maybe he'll be able to get Liquid under 80% by the end of the day. I hope not.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:37:51 AM | Message Detail
Which he might; after all, didn't Max Payne do a lil' better than expected against Vercetti last year? I'm not sure if that was 'cuz his game was out then or not (I think it came out during the 2k3 contest, correct me if I'm wrong), but I can see MGS and GTA games appealing to the same crowd. I don't think it'd make for a big difference, but it's certainly possible.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:39:39 AM | Message Detail
It's probably that ever-sneaky after-school vote that's gonna kick in soon. In all likelyhood, I think OT will finish over 20%...but bein' quadrupled like Liquid is awful, especially if he's over-rated in 2k4 like he might be.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:40:44 AM | Message Detail
after all, didn't Max Payne do a lil' better than expected against Vercetti last year?

He faced Sephiroth directly last year, so he was underestimated by the stats a bit.

See also: Alucard, Kirby, Bomberman
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:41:15 AM | Message Detail
Which he might; after all, didn't Max Payne do a lil' better than expected against Vercetti last year?

He definitely did. Several reasons for the better than expected performance were strewn around, but I think it's simply because GTA characters don't have staying power. I expect Vercetti to slip further and further (if he even makes it in the contest anymore) until he's practically fodder.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/10/2005 11:41:58 AM | Message Detail
...and of course, 5 minutes after I finish saying that, Liquid's lead jumps from 80.53% to 80.55%.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
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