Hmmm...I dont think Crono would lose to anyone, not even Yakra XIII or Gato... :(
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever

Fair enough, but we know the top three of the SF poll is accurate and well above most of the rest of the choices in that poll (goin' by memory here, correct me if I'm wrong please), and Ultros did worse than expected too. We also don't get too many chances to see characters in two different kinds of polls like that, if any (I'm talking more than just a like-the most and a hate-the-most poll), and M. Bison has shown signs of weakness that, depending on how much you look into it, has been proven true so far...perhaps OT's performance tomorrow could carry this on, perhaps not, but I'm not worried 'bout his performance tomorrow in relation to M. Bison's signs unless he gets killed (worse than a tripling) or does good (35%'s my mark for that).

That's all I'm saying though, signs. I still think M. Bison will win, but I'm not so confident anymore because of the signs thus far...and most of my arguing over this potential upset has not mentioned Albedo, so maybe I'd be better off saying there's signs M. Bison could simply do worse than expected rather than M. Bison could lose to Albedo. Regardless, I think I've argued this point dry.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Not to mention, we've seen Tidus stink up these favorite polls (whether it's favorite FF lead or even favorite FFX character), and he was up there on the verge of elite in 2003.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Hmmm...I dont think Crono would lose to anyone, not even Yakra XIII or Gato... :(

I would love for Crono to win a favorites poll, but I severely doubt he would do so. I would expect Magus to win with Crono and Frog in a close second.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

Err, Crono and Frog would be fighting closely for a second spot behind Magus. I would expect Magus to win fairly easily in a favorite poll.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I think these "signs" are all nice to look at, but nothing to lose sleep over. Sure, you should always consider them, but getting worried over them? Ridiculous. You've got one very old poll and one very recent poll that are asking two entirely different questions. I'm not much into arguing over something so trivial for very long, but we should not be rethinking Bison's strength based on these. That will do nothing but prove to be fatal in the long run. We've seen when it can be very, very wrong.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

And Liquid/Tenpenny sucks ass. That picture could not get much worse than that. Luckily, I don't care for either character. Still, that's one ugly mess.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

That will do nothing but prove to be fatal in the long run.

Brackets are locked, duh. =P

I'm ready to leave that point 110% alone right now though...sheesh, I wore myself out with some of those posts.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

The match has broke 70,000, in other news, and there's still more than an hour left.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Bleh. I'm not a fan of the MGS style art or the GTA style art. This match pic sucks.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

And the match will mostly suck, too. Oh well.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Liquid Snake 84.62% 33
Officer Tenpenny 15.38% 6
TOTAL VOTES 39

Lavos had 62.11% of the brackets, interestingly enough.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

That 37.89 Percent included Ceej, apparently.
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Honorary Spring 2005 Winner - Kerrigan.

Liquid Snake 92.59% 25
Officer Tenpenny 14.81% 4
TOTAL VOTES 27

25 + 4 != 27

(Yes, I know why, I don't need a lecture on database queries)
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

And our fearless leader picked Mother Brain... sniff sniff.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

poor cjayc can't keep up with the rest of us. oh well. liquid is pwning as expected.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 7/7 Next Pick: Liquid

Heh, so he did. He won't be seeing leaderboard action anymore this contest.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

50 Aya_01 7 Sephiroth

Is...is that ertyu?!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Score-Brackets-% Right
6------5233-----70.8580164
5------8817-----61.2112964
4------6922-----59.3614562
3------2969-----58.2014146
2------627------61.2440191
1------88-------36.3636364
0------92-------15.2173913

The difference in accuracy between high scoring and low scoring brackets continues to grow. Great job by the 0's but they still fall into the double digits.

6 people fell off the Top 50 today. FAWYOU, Fureebe, thatdoesnotrock, Big_Daddy_Ant, foodilly and the person everybody has already noticed by now CJayC.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

I'd love to know why over (WAY over) half of the perfect bracketeers had Mother Brain beating freaking Lavos. My faith in Sin returns.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Going straight by random statistics, only 2,724 perfect brackets should remain. However, well more than that still exist, proving that we are oooh so much smarter than mathematics.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

And if I'm not mistaken...seven brackets on the leaderboard picking someone other than Sephy to win, for the umpteenth day in a row
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

I'd love to know why over (WAY over) half of the perfect bracketeers had Mother Brain beating freaking Lavos. My faith in Sin returns.

What do you mean? Only about 30% of the perfects had Mother Brain over Lavos.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Gotta ask, since I see their individual vote-totals were real close: Andross VS Mother Brain, who wins? While we're at it, who wins between Sigma and Lavos?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Liquid Snake 79.72% 798
Officer Tenpenny 20.28% 203
TOTAL VOTES 1001

So I missed by one vote this time; I was chokin' on ice, sue me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I have faith Andross would beat both Lavos and Mother Brain. Obviously, that explains where Sigma stands.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I dunno, but I weep for humanity if Cam Clarke triples Samuel L. Jackson. I will refrain from shedding a tear if Shaft can hit 30%... come on kiddies, wake up!!! It is your violent gory obscene GTA getting pummelled here!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

to add to TRE's stats about performance, the current average score at gameFAQs is

5.20

I compile this by summing the products of each matches prediction percentage by the points the match was worth, for the entire contest. It's less accurate than other methods, but its how I do it for the-elite.net to compare our scores to gamefaqs.

Andross clearly beats Mother Brain. Sigma clearly beats Lavos. I think Andross vs. Lavos is the good matchup there. I would pick Andross in a close one personally, but admit that may be a bad choice.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 7/7 Next Pick: Liquid

I compile this by summing the products of each matches prediction percentage by the points the match was worth, for the entire contest. It's less accurate than other methods, but its how I do it for the-elite.net to compare our scores to gamefaqs.

It would be easier to take the sumproduct of scores*# entrants with that score, and divide by the total number of brackets.
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www.SC2K5.com

It's one thing if OT gets doubled, and it's another if he gets tripled...but if he somehow managed to get QUADRUPLED by the end of this match (though this match won't keep this kind of pace up...surely not...maybe), I'm bringin' back up the upset poll with a die-hard vengence.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Going straight by random statistics, only 2,724 perfect brackets should remain. However, well more than that still exist, proving that we are oooh so much smarter than mathematics.

What you mean is that if we were to assume that getting the correct pick for each match were independently distributed, we'd have less perfects. But there's conditional probabilities involved--getting matches right is a skill, and those that get one match right are more likely to get other matches right (well, for the most part, barring some huge upset).


And Harrich, Tenpenny is nothing. We didn't need that poll to tell us that. If anything, that poll makes Bison look just fine. It's Master Hand that the poll makes look good. Bison's performance in that poll wasn't poor at all.
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www.SC2K5.com

Right, but even then, quadrupling Tenpenny is either quite the feat or quite the punk. OT also sucked in the poll, hard; that would be one more thing that could be seen against M. Bison...

...I hope it makes Master Hand look good instead of M. Bison look bad, but if this keeps on, it's simply another puzzle piece fitting in. It may be the wrong puzzle, but so far the pieces are fitting.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Liquid Snake 80.15% 1603
Officer Tenpenny 19.85% 397
TOTAL VOTES 2000
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

So... disheartening...

Back to SNES Star Ocean and teaching myself Information Technology. Boy are my priorities great.

I thought we had ~7200 or so perfects. Le whoops.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Wow...right now, Ryo Hazuki would do better than Tenpenny. Fun, fun.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I keep expecting the %age to go down but... it just keeps going up? What in the blue hell? Heheh.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

The day vote will almost certainly get Tenpenny up some...but, ya know, Vergil was supposed to increase in the day-time too. Time'll tell on that.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Liquid Snake 80.14% 2405
Officer Tenpenny 19.86% 596
TOTAL VOTES 3001

No excuse for me this time. With that said, I'm gone to bed. G-nite ya'll.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Looking at the bracket, I can only see one reason why Liquid is stuck in Sephiroth's division. CJayC rigged the bracket to have Sephiroth take out all of the top competition.

Sephiroth gets to defeat Liquid, Bowser, and Ganondorf. Those are the only 3 villains in this contest with legitimate strength (Kefka is questionable).

It's a shame that Sephy gets to beat all 3 of them, because any match between 2 of those 3 will probably be quite good.

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

So, if Tenpenny = Vercetti, where does that put Liquid?

If Tenpenny = Vercetti, then Liquid is stronger than Link. Going by Liquid's 2004 number, Tenpenny is as weak as CATS.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

It took 2 hours and 15 minutes for Tenpenny to break the 1000 vote barrier. Liquid is maintaining his quadrupling at the moment.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

It would be easier to take the sumproduct of scores*# entrants with that score, and divide by the total number of brackets.

----

Not with the spreadsheet I am using. There is already a column devoted to gameFAQ prediction percent, so it only takes one equation to find the average score from what I'm already compiling for the-elite.net's guru contest. I agree in another scenario, that would be easiest (copy/past) and more accurate

... So much for Liquid not even tripling him, HM. >_>
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

Good performance by Liquid....awful performance by Ocelot.

T_T....
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Volgin is one sexy beast....

holy crap. Tenpenney is a HUGE failure. at this rate, even Rameriz would be able to double him. i knew Tenpenney would be pretty low, but this is pathetic. perhaps there is a little bit of action game SFF going on here?

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093

HOLY CRAP. I can't believe what I'm seeing. Liquid over 80%... I wonder where the day vote will go.

And XD at Ulti. His bias is making him remember the wrong numbers... you're waaaaay too proud for one with no self-esteem.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka

Your 10k sample:

Liquid Snake 80.17% 8018
Officer Tenpenny 19.83% 1983
TOTAL VOTES 10001

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Spring Contest 2k5 Score X Potential: 7/7 X 80/80
Next Pick: Snake///// Next Vote: Snake