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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 119
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:05:21 PM | Message Detail
We'd better hope Wily's weaker than a Zombie with guns.
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From: NewLib | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:06:24 PM | Message Detail
Well he can be stronger, just not by much.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:06:35 PM | Message Detail
For the record, Albedo plays a very large role in Episode II.
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"Pardon me for breathing, which I never do any way so I don't know why I bother to say it, oh God, I'm so depressed." - Marvin, HHGG
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:13:25 PM | Message Detail
The thing is that some of those polls can be an indicator of things. They're not 100% accurate by any means, but there's not useless.

That's what I'm saying; for example, when the favorite FF games are polled, it goes like this (barring when FFX was just released and beat FF3/6, I think)...

FF7
FF3/6
FFX
FF8
FF9

...and the rest are out of the way; FFT probably would be pretty close to FF9, but otherwise, there's not much question to that rank and we can recognize that the rest are below that. Then, in the SF poll, we saw that Ryu, Chun-Li, and Ken are the top three much like we figured (though Chun-Li's yet to be in any contest-action)...in the MK poll, we saw Sub-Zero beat out Scorpion like we anticipated too (see Chun-Li). Obviously, there's truth in those polls...we just don't always know what's true and what's not, almost completely due to SFF and/or too many options (such as, say, more than two, heh).

What I've said afew times now is that there are signs of M. Bison choking because he sucked it up in the SF poll (where there were many options and most of the votes were taken by Ryu, so SFF could have hit there too), then lost again to Master Hand in a poll last week with several less choices and surely-weaker characters that also won't have any significant fanbase overlap with him. For the hell that Master Hand has got and Ultros not even keeping afloat of 36% on Dr. Wily when many expected a 55/45-or-closer-performance, this should at least get considered.

Not that unreasonable guys; M. Bison just might be a choke artist.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:16:51 PM | Message Detail
That was a who do you want to see pull an upset poll, it really shoulden't count, considering a Bison over Albedo was an easy match to call and most people want MH to pull an upset.
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From: cyko | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:18:28 PM | Message Detail
well, i won't be surprised if Bison flops, but i still think he will get past Albedo. if Vergil can get past Ghaleon and Wesker can get past Luca (like he should be able to. >_> ), then Bison should be able to get past Albedo.

and ok, this my last pic-related comment of the night -

for some reason, i just realized that with head shots this round, CATS might actually get a half-way decent pic.

*GASP*

pretty much NOONE is gonna vote for CATS' crummy pixel pic that looks like an eggplant unless they are already a fan of him or strongly dislike his opponent. and CATS just isn't that well-known. however, with an anime-style pic like his face shot on the villain profile page, CATS could finally actually draw in some casual votes. he's still not gonna come close to winning, but it would be intersting to see if a better pic actually did make a difference. CATS might just break 25%.

and for some reason, this CATS-related pic actually amused me:

http://www.zachzintel.com/art/ayb.jpg

>_>

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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:19:49 PM | Message Detail
The only things you know for sure about that poll is that FFVII, FFVI, and FFX go in order, which is no big shock at all. We have no idea where FFVIII and FFIX fall.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:24:44 PM | Message Detail
Last time I said this, I caught some hell and started a Lavos/Diablo debate...but, I think it's be safe to assume FF8 > FF9. From there, between the polls and the general consensus in this topic (hell, maybe the board in general), FFX would likely beat FF8 in a pretty close one if they faced off in a contest. Therefore, until further notice, I think it's be safe to assume 7 > 3/6 > X > 8 > 9. Saying we have no idea about where they fall is silly to say, although we may not be completely accurate either. Regardless, I think most/all signs and people would agree on this being the pecking order in contest strength.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:27:42 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I think you actually asked about how we don't know about if FF8 > FF9 or not. My bad...again, between the polls and general opinion, I think the signs are there. I expect them to be pretty close together (with FF8 being closer to FFX than FF9) and above FFT (with FF9 being closer to FFT than FF8).

Out of curiousity, does anybody detest this pecking order in terms of contest strength:

FF7
FF3/6
FFX
FF8
FF9
FFT
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:28:26 PM | Message Detail
That looks about right.
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SpC2k5: 6/6 Next up: Sephiroth, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid Snake
*is Janus5000*
From: Crono801 | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:29:39 PM | Message Detail
I could definately see Vivi beating the supporting cast of FFVIII, and would love to see how Zidane vs. Squall went
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Preparedness prevents piss poor performance.
Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:30:12 PM | Message Detail
Okay, now show me another favorites poll that's anywhere near as accurate as that one.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:43:55 PM | Message Detail
First, a note on XS2. The sales numbers are quite comparable to XS1's sales before it gained Greatest Hits status. By the end of its regular sales cycle, assuming it also gets a release at the unbeatable low price of $20, it should end very close to XS1.

Second, while FF8 tends to beat FF9 in favorites polls it managed to "best" all competitors in a least favorite poll. We still can't say for sure where the two stand in relation to eachother, though a game with a polar reaction has the upper hand on one with a smaller group of devout follower even if said game is otherwise more far reaching.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:51:13 PM | Message Detail
if Vergil can get past Ghaleon and Wesker can get past Luca, then Bison should be able to get past Albedo.

Such an obvious parallel, yet I never thought of it. Good thinking, cyko.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:52:10 PM | Message Detail
I hate to say it, but Squall would destroy Zidane.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:52:51 PM | Message Detail
Oh and to extend an earlier post, I also did a second runthrough of the Dancer SCC since getting bored of Xenosaga, and I beat Third Strike with all 19 characters.

Yeah, the early parts of Xenosaga are goddamned boring.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:57:28 PM | Message Detail
I hate poll-searching with a passion, so I'm not gonna look for any (there probably aren't any that's as accurate as that, anyways). However, I'll keep on...I said we don't always know what truth to believe in each poll, but I think there's some truth that we could use in most every poll like that. I could say ALL the polls are probably as accurate as that one, but I know that's not what you're meaning. Some polls could just mean one character would get SFF'd less than most characters (like maybe Knuckles would be SFF'd less by Sonic than Shadow), or maybe there is an accurate strength ratio/ranking after/before a certain point (like maybe the ranking is right with Ryu/Chun-Li/Ken, then the rest after it may mean nothing more than them < those first three). I don't see any poll like that being COMPLETELY inaccurate; you just have to know what to pick and choose...

...in most times, that'd be best done in RETROSPECT, but M. Bison's been in two polls that are different from each other in almost every way (except, you know, it's still on GameFAQs) and both have him not doing too well. Plus, not many people voted for that poll by who they actually wanted to see win a match by an upset, or at least weren't that informed. Let me explain that: there is both "Who do you want to see pull an upset against their respective opponent?" and "Who do you want to see pull an upset the most?". Not everyone is goin' to see it the same way, and about half of the voters don't even participate with bracket making, so they likely just voted for the one they wanted to see win the most, regardless of who each character was facing. Therefore, it can still be pretty accurate, though that's certainly not guaranteed.

With two polls in two different situations at two different times, M. Bison isn't on his A-game. If Dr. Robotnik loses to Sin, money says somebody will refer to those Sonic polls you mentioned, and many of us will wonder why we did not see the signs. If you try to make signs happen, you could probably "see" signs for half of the characters in this contest winning a match or two...but those two polls with M. Bison stand out to me, on top of the other reasons I've mentioned.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:59:04 PM | Message Detail
Hey, what if there was a female character contest down the line? I think that'd be pretty interesting, aside from the fact that Samus winning would be almost as obvious as Sephy winning this one.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Starion | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:59:23 PM | Message Detail
A Dancer DCC sounds a little too easy. All you have to do is basically stall while your dancing does its thing.
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:01:41 PM | Message Detail
Again, the main problem with those polls is that you have NO idea whatsoever how the other voters who selected separate options would vote between two characters in an isolated poll. Basically all you're establishing is which character has the most favorites. For all we know, the rest of the voters hate him/her with a passion.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:02:50 PM | Message Detail
if Vergil can get past Ghaleon and Wesker can get past Luca, then Bison should be able to get past Albedo.

I don't know how to feel about M. Bison in relation to Vergil and Wesker right now, but I think Albedo would be stronger than Ghaleon and Luca. Also note that Vergil/Wesker have higher seeds than Ghaleon/Luca...M. Bison doesn't have that same advantage. That rarely means much, especially when Ridley/Diablo's the next match, but it makes me all the more cautious when there's gonna be very few seeding upsets this contest.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:03:45 PM | Message Detail
And as far as your argument that such characters would be less likely to get SFF'd, it certainly didn't help Yoshi against Link.

Heck, I'd bet that Magus would win a favorite Chrono Trigger character poll and he suffered more SFF than Bowser did against Mario.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:04:51 PM | Message Detail
Ghaleon and Wesker are probably weaker than Bison, how many "Who's Bison" topics have you seen.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:06:08 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I was right. Liquid/Tenpenny's pic sucks.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr05/b08.jpg
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:06:21 PM | Message Detail
Hey, what if there was a female character contest down the line? I think that'd be pretty interesting, aside from the fact that Samus winning would be almost as obvious as Sephy winning this one.

That could be okay, and we'd probably get to see Terra in action (assuming she doesn't make it again this summer).
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SpC2k5: 6/6 Next up: Sephiroth, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid Snake
*is Janus5000*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:06:43 PM | Message Detail
For all we know, the rest of the voters hate him/her with a passion.

Doesn't it seem more likely that somebody with, say, 60% of the votes in a favorites-poll would garner less hate than somebody with, say, 10% of the votes in the same poll? Not to say that's guaranteed, but there's alot more room for the 10%-one to be hated than the 60%-one.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:07:04 PM | Message Detail
Dear god, Liquid looks hideous.
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SpC2k5: 6/6 Next up: Sephiroth, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid Snake
*is Janus5000*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:07:30 PM | Message Detail
Unless by some chance Magus overperformed on Link in 2k3...
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:08:15 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you mean like how FFVIII is favored over FFIX two-to-one in the favorite poll and yet ranks as the #1 most hated, right?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:09:47 PM | Message Detail
And as far as your argument that such characters would be less likely to get SFF'd, it certainly didn't help Yoshi against Link.

Link's a whole 'nother beast than Mario, and it's been argued that Mario might have been SFF'd a lil' by Link (thogh I don't buy it)...but there'd be no reasonable way Yoshi could stand up to that if Mario couldn't; of course he'd get SFF'd. Now, maybe Yoshi wouldn't get SFF'd too badly by Mario if they went one-on-one, but that's yet to be seen.


Yeah, LS/OT sucks.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:09:48 PM | Message Detail
Tenpenny might actually do better than expected. Liquid looks like crap, and the Tenpenny pic HAS to be recognizable since it's one of the pics seen while you're waiting on GTA:SA to load. That means nearly everytime you turn on the game, you are probably seeing that pic....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Crono801 | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:10:27 PM | Message Detail
I'd be willing to wager that Zidane/Squall would be closer than you would think.
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Preparedness prevents piss poor performance.
Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:11:06 PM | Message Detail
Official Metal Gear artwork sucks. Solid almost always gets "melting" Snake for his matches, so it's not a shock.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:12:04 PM | Message Detail
Worse pic so far.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:13:43 PM | Message Detail
"Oh, you mean like how FFVIII is favored over FFIX two-to-one in the favorite poll and yet ranks as the #1 most hated, right?"

FF8 is quite polar, there is that chance that it has a more vocal fanbase than ff9 but isn't as universally accepted due to the fact that as many people who think it's the best think it's the worst. That could present a situation where FF8 may win in a direct match up but still lose in XSt if they don't match up directly. Of course, we just don't know enough about either in a contest environment to say for sure just yet.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:14:14 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, but we've rarely had that artwork seen so close up. You can't say that picture doesn't look worse than it does zoomed out. And I was talking more about Tenpenny's pic recognizability. I thought Ceej would use an ugly in-game pic like he has done for Vercetti.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:15:08 PM | Message Detail
Eh, regardless, it's still the same picture Liquid got against Frog last year. No big deal.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:16:13 PM | Message Detail
I thought it was well accepted that Vivi was the most popular FFIX character. Zidane have to be much more popular than Vivi to beat Squall.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:17:02 PM | Message Detail
Vivi very well could be the most popular, but it's certainly not a lock.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:17:29 PM | Message Detail
FF7
FF6
FFX
FFT
FF8
FF9
FF4
Who Cares?

^^^The correct order^^^

From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/9/2005 11:59:04 PM | Message Detail
Hey, what if there was a female character contest down the line? I think that'd be pretty interesting, aside from the fact that Samus winning would be almost as obvious as Sephy winning this one.


A 32 character female contest next spring would be decent, but not this summer. For the summer contests, give me 64 games or characters, no gimmicks. Besides, it just makes it that much easier for either Link, Cloud, or Sephiroth to win.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:18:24 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you mean like how FFVIII is favored over FFIX two-to-one in the favorite poll and yet ranks as the #1 most hated, right?

Note that it wasn't guaranteed. Besides, I'm looking on more on the big scale than FF8-to-FF9; FF7, which is numero uno, is hated less than FF8. FF8 also had alot more room to be hated on than FF7 when you compare the favorites-poll(s).

A problem here is that you're trying to lay a general rule that spans all the favorites-polls and find the exceptions to prove me otherwise, while I don't think there is any single thing that will always be right or wrong when you check each and every similar poll like that. In fact, what I pointed out was two polls that shared a similar sentiment while you're pointing out various polls that show something OTHER than said sentiment...most polls like that aren't goin' to react the same way. That's what may make the SF poll and the upset poll significant about M. Bison; they're reacting the same way despite the different times they were held, despite the different characters he shares almost no connection with (aside from even being in the contest), and despite less options.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:18:39 PM | Message Detail
I don't dislike the good MGS art, and that's not a bad picture of Liquid at all in comparison to what he could have looked like.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:22:56 PM | Message Detail
"I thought it was well accepted that Vivi was the most popular FFIX character. Zidane have to be much more popular than Vivi to beat Squall."

Problem being that "most popular" is a term with many meanings. Most popular among the die-hard fans series/game means more nominations, but being more popular among the casual fans of the game means more votes in an actual match. Vivi might just be the fan favorite and nothing more, that'd give him the best shot of making the contest but not the greatest strength once in the contest.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:24:52 PM | Message Detail
I still dont think a match between Squall and Zidane would be close.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:26:45 PM | Message Detail
If Vivi really is only a lil' above Luigi instead of being equal to Yoshi or just short of Bowser like most of us thought, he's still have some good room to fall between Squall and Vivi.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:28:03 PM | Message Detail
He's = he'd = Zidane.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:31:47 PM | Message Detail
If DK didn't change from 2k3 to 2k4 Vivi is in between Yoshi and Luigi, not a bad place to be, but I still feel there's reason to believe DK did gain. Of all the characters who'd be misplaced thanks to Sephiroth I fel Vivi is the one most likely to actually fall in line with his SFF-adjusted stats.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:32:14 PM | Message Detail
A problem here is that you're trying to lay a general rule that spans all the favorites-polls and find the exceptions to prove me otherwise, while I don't think there is any single thing that will always be right or wrong when you check each and every similar poll like that

No, I'm just trying to say that just about every single one of these polls translates horribly to a one-on-one poll. I don't see any reason to believe these polls you're pointing out are any different.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:38:25 PM | Message Detail
The people have spoken...

The fans have demanded it...

The kiddies have tried to stop it...protesting to Ceej with a bogus petition...

No it is not a re-release of Congo Bongo...it is...

Steve Illumina Speaks

You know it, noobs! It is the irreverent column that mocks the contest that geeky gamers live breathe and talk in the school cafeterias about for weeks. It can be fav games...it can be fav characters...or villains...or heroes...or joke bosses...or box art. It dont much matter...nerds will flock to it like fat kids to Whoppers. Now, lets get a move on, shall we!

Continuing with the Hojo 'Jenova' Division...

(2)Liquid Snake vs (7)Officer Tenpenny
AKA: Liquiditius Serpentus vs Ten Pennies Makes A Dime
Steve's Pick: Liquid Snake
Newbie Pick: The Copper!
Kiddie Pick: The Blue & White!
Non Gamer Pick: The Law...

Comments: We continue this tourney with a grudge match between rival fanbases...the Solids and the Grands

On the one side of the street, ya got the stealth gang known as the Solids. These firepower packin punks hide in the shadows and strike when the time is right...takin down all who dare try to infiltrate their turf.

On the other side, ya got the hoods known as the Grands. These bloody bruisers talk tough, walk tough, and are tough...carryin massive amounts of weaponry, figuring their way is the right way to get things done.

Personified on this website...these rivals go at it every year in some way shape or form during each and every contest. They run their mouths, thinkin their games are better, or their characters, or their weapons, or designers, or the box art...or whatever else! If they would both open their eyes and realize that none of their stuff holds a candle to the Duke Nukem series, all would be at peace...

So yep, this bracket buster will be closer than it should be, but the Cop will go down to the Liquid One...and the screams of the GTA supporting noobs and underage kiddies will be at full force...hahaha

And that is all I have to say for today. Tune in tomorrow for Kefka vs Mithos...my FFVI great fanatical hope...will easily add a point to my totals so the Sage of Board 8 will keep racking up the points and adding to his PERFECT score! :)

Quotes: Liquid: "I got nothin to say..." Officer: "I also got nothin to say..."
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:42:38 PM | Message Detail
Heck, I'd bet that Magus would win a favorite Chrono Trigger character poll and he suffered more SFF than Bowser did against Mario.

I very much second this.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
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