Outback’s Analysis

I don't play MGS or GTA
Minor Spoilers, I guess



So I have a friend at my school who started to come here on a semi-regular basis now that the contest started, and we sometimes have discussions on who will win on what day and stuff like that. Today I mentioned how the top half was so easy to predict, and he said that he agreed but had some upsets in just for fun (he didn't enter for prizes), and one of these upsets was Tenpenny over Liquid. I know that he's a pretty big MGS fan as well as a pretty big GTA fan, so I asked him why he'd put Tenpenny over Liquid, and he said "Liquid isn't even a real villain. The only time you even have to fight him is when he takes over Ocelot, and I consider that to be more of an Ocelot fight than a Liquid fight."

I'm not really sure if I should put any stock into this or not, but it's making me think twice about Ocelot/Liquid's strength. Either way, there's no chance Tenpenny is a MC or Frog.

Liquid Snake 68.89, Tenpenny 31.11



Inviso’s Analysis

Now, in theory, this could be interesting, but in all honesty, it’s not going to be. Grand Theft Auto always gets a villain into the contest, mainly because of the casuals. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas also managed to win Gamefaqs game of the year. Do not let this fool you. The Grand Theft Auto series is always hyped as hell when it takes out a weak character, but can’t stand up to anyone with any strength.

Liquid Snake has strength. Last summer, he came very close in vote percentages to his main character counterpart, Solid Snake, and in fact, many believe Liquid deserves the one seed more than Kefka. Liquid should easily defeat a villain from a game that is not as much about villains, but more about driving around and being a total thieving badass. Metal Gear Solid actually has a chance to be strong in a contest with so many weak characters.

My prediction: Liquid Snake with 72.09%

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Lavos vs. Mother Brain - Bracket: Lavos - Vote: M. Brain (6/6)

Between how much further down the food-chain M. Bison is than Ken in the SF poll, letting Master Hand upset him in the upset poll, the likely low voter turn-out, and the 6-seed in a contest that'll see very few seeding upsets...there are signs for him to choke, and I'm not confident in M. Bison any more. Ken's already just short of KOS-MOS, if I remember correctly, and we don't know how much further away Albedo is from her than Bison is from him (they've got got a decent distance from her though, I'm sure). Then, of course, let's through in the age-old adage of "RPGs rule GameFAQs" as opposed to fighting games for added measure, though that's not a rule to live and die by...

...guys, I wouldn't be so confident in it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

But then there's the matter of Ken, who is significantly lower than Ryu. KOS-MOS would beat Ken in a match. Who you have as the winner of the match depends on how close you place Albedo to KOS-MOS and the relationship between Ryu, Ken, and M. Bison.
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The world is toroidal

Stop putting so much stock into that worthless poll. Bowser got beat out by Yoshi and still ranks in the top 20. Winning or losing a multi-option poll means nothing because you don't know how the rest of the voters feel.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

Hmm, I'm already thinking my Liquid prediction is high...oh well.

And M. Brain is impressing me today. Hopefully Ridley can impress as well versus Diablo.
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Lavos vs. Mother Brain - Bracket: Lavos - Vote: M. Brain (6/6)

KOS MOS would barely beat Ken, heck, Ken could even pull an upset over her. And it's Square that dominates, not RPGs as a whole. KOS MOS is the strongest non Square RPG character and she's barely in the high 30s. The only characters beaten by non Square RPG character are Laharl, Crash and Jak, not very impressive.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

80%? What the hell?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Anyone worried that Bison may actually beat Kefka? The Elite Eight has typically been the variable picture round, and if Kefka gets the lettuce mug, he's gone.

the best pic for the Ruin Division final would be Angel Kefka vs. Demon Diablo. even if that's not in your bracket, ya gotta admit that would make one sweet match pic.

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I went mid 70's in the Oracle. I really don't see Tenpenny being anything in this Contest.

Hell, we already know how strong Liquid is, I think he can do it.
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Lavos vs. Mother Brain - Bracket: Lavos - Vote: M. Brain (6/6)

I said that having a good idea of who everyone's favorite villain was that frequents this topic. =p

hmm, I dont' think I've ever blatantly said my favorite villain, but Bowser would definitely be up there. Plus, I do frequent this topic, but no big deal. Don't get mad at swirl, I could see him getting defensive after you basically told him he doesn't participate in the stats topic. The truth is, these topics have been moving WAY TOO DAMN FAST recently, too fast for me to keep up with at this point, without devoting a good hour or so of catching up.

and in other news, I'm kind of surprised that no one said much about mother brain doing so well. No one seems to have commented much at all at the start of the match, which is odd. I thought lavos was expected to do much better.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

http://zanyvgquotes.com/finalfantasy3/ff3-destroy.gif

Best Kefka pic.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Between how much further down the food-chain M. Bison is than Ken in the SF poll,

You realize that, that poll wasn't exactly recent, right? I recall it being somewhere around 800-900, which is ancient. At the very least, you shouldn't be using this as something to get worried over. It's merely a "favorite" poll that has proven to be wrong multiple times. Those same polls were what made people take Yoshi over Bowser. It's ridiculous to rely on them as much as you are.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

It was more than one poll that's had M. Bison coming up short, one recent with one old, and one inter-series while one with no potential SFF (though there could still be that over-lap). One poll, yeah, but if there's two polls that have him coming short of expectations in different situations, we might wanna step back and look again. I'm also not as sure as I used to be about M. Bison being closer to Ken than Albedo would be to KOS-MOS...considering the drop Ken took from 2k2 to 2k3, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think he's taken a smaller drop between 2k3 to 2k5; meanwhile, I believe KOS-MOS actually gained a lil' from 2k3, though I might be wrong on that. I think the Xenogears/Xenosaga series (whichever name they're goin' with now) recently got a new addition recently too (I know it was in the most-anticipated poll with SF:Ass and got a solid second) as well...I assume Albedo'll be in it, but if not, it couldn't hurt his cause anyways.

All I'm saying is that it's not guaranteed, and I personally am no longer confident in Bison winning it like I once was. He's weird in how he could win the division or lose in the first round, much like Ridley or Diablo...but the signs are there for him to lose.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Don't get mad at swirl, I could see him getting defensive after you basically told him he doesn't participate in the stats topic.

Would you say that my comment was a lie?

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I don't get the big deal about Albedo. PLEASE don't spoil it for me, but I'm playing Xenosaga right now. I admit that I'm not really into it, but 20+ slowplaying hours in the game and I've only seen Albedo APPEAR in the game twice so far (I'm in the Encephalon in the old Miltia flashback), let alone seen him do anything worth mentioning. Unless he has one heck of an impact at the end I think it's safe to say that I don't see how anyone would vote for him without having given Xenosaga SIGNIFICANT playing time. Unless he's much more prominent in Xenosaga 2.... What are the sales numbers for those two games?
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

480,000+ for Xenosaga1 in the US. Someone said the second one sold far fewer copies.
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.

heh, i also actually found a face shot for Sin. i would be very amused to see Ceej use this pic against Robotnik:
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.*SPOILER ALERT*
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http://www.remiem.net/jecht/bfa2.gif
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*NO MORE SPOILERS*

heh, i could see that pic matched up against Robotnik's goofy mug.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
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Honestly, if you put any worthwhile stock into those polls, Robotnik is in bigger trouble than Bison. When you're one of the least favorite characters and only Big the Cat and Amy Rose are more hated than you are, that's not good.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Xenosaga Episode I sold 483,000 copies in America and Xenosaga Episode II sold 234,000 copies in America.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I believe Xenosaga was around 450,000 copies, and I have no clue about Xenosaga 2.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Considering the picture Ceej used for Lavos, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see that one for Sin.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Where do you get your data, Heroic Hurricane Kick?
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.

Well aren't I a slow bastard. Jesus Christ with you people are your memorization of sales figures.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

mnm, rest assured, Albedo does have a very big impact on the game. You'll be seeing him fairly soon.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

By the way, Ulti, did you ever finish Xenosaga?
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

I think you are putting far, far too much behind those polls, Harrich. They are something to look at, yes. But they should not be something that is used to begin seriously questioning how well a character will or will not do in a contest environment. You've got one very old poll asking your favorite SF2 character and a poll asking which character you would like to see upset the most, where Bison finished in a close second. Neither one should even come close to putting Bison's first round match into doubt when he's up against a rather obscure villain. It isn't as though he's up against an RPG villain that is known and talked about among the masses. The whole "RPGs dominate GameFAQs" also doesn't quite say much when Ghaleon got his ass kicked by Vergil. I don't see how Albedo is going to be much different in the sense of getting rocked despite being an RPG from a low selling series.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

Where do you get your data, Heroic Hurricane Kick?

For which? Xenosaga II? Those came from adding up monthly NPD sales.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

heh, i'm just on a big picture kick now. here's my favorite Robotnik pic:

http://dreggman.com/newsite/cosplay/fantom2.jpg

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
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Funny how Monolith Soft seemed so talented when they were with Square, and then when they went with Namco all that talent just seemed to vanish.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Those polls are both taking a step back and looking over in Dr. Robotnik's case, too, though both's within his own series and not as likely to be as accurate. I took them into consideration and still took Dr. Robotnik over Sin, but those polls may wind up biting many of us in the ass. M. Bison's second poll at least is both much more recent and not an inter-series poll, so it COULD be more accurate (I think so, anyways, though I ain't about to guess how accurate with just that poll).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I strugged picking the Mother brain / Lavos match myself based on two factors:

1.) Mother Brain is classic;
2.) there's nothing interesting about Lavos whatsoever.

you can argue with these two points, but that's how I feel. it seems that I rank Mother Brain higher than everyone else here, but this isn't surprising to me at all. I ended up picking Lavos just because CT > Metroid on GameFAQs and because Ridley has overtaken MB in the past ten years, but I'm glad to see MB do respectably.

as for Albedo vs. M. Bison: I adore Xenosaga and Albedo, but it's a cult game; M. Bison is much better known and I would expect him to pull it out in a close one. I'm sure a lot of people will see a dude with white hair and go "...who?"

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http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html

ooh, ooh!! better yet, a pic of Robotnik battling both Sonic AND Tails:

http://dreggman.com/newsite/fanart/deathwalker/pictures/4.jpg

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Whats to adore about Albedo? The only worst character in that game is Jr.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

2.) there's nothing interesting about Lavos whatsoever.

You people make me freakin' cry. ;_;

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/9/2005 10:46:09 PM | Message Detail
By the way, Ulti, did you ever finish Xenosaga?

Not yet. I got extremely bored with the game and am still on the part with you have to tour Idiot and Moron through that one ship that KOS-MOS had to threaten her way onto.

Let's see, what have I played since....? Devil May Cry, a ton of SSBM, a ton of Starcraft, MP: Echoes, a little bit of Phantom Brave.... I've been having problems getting into games that don't grab my attention early these days.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Meh, I was just pointing out how little I've seen him throughout the game. It makes me question how strong he will be. I figured he'd have some kind of notoriety with that ytmnd made about him. Honestly I'm only playing through Xenosaga to see what the fuss was about, and because Xenogears is my 3rd all-time favorite game. I think I'm gonna post my top character/games list during the next slow match.

On another note, this pic discussion made me wonder if Ceej will follow the same format as last summer with Final Four pics of the characters owning each other, and user made finals. I'd LOVE to see the picture of Bowser owning Sephiroth. I'd blow it up and frame it. I'd also be curious to see what type of user pics would be made for Ganon vs. Seph. How many do you think would involve Ganon in demon-pig form?
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I see. Actually, I don't think the sales figures for the Xenosaga games (at least for the first one) are low. Most people expect 1 million but that's unrealistic for the majority of games. I still don't think Albedo is going to win but his game certainly isn't cult ala Earthbound or Lunar.
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.

Those polls will only bite those who put any serious stock into them, which nobody should have because they have proven to be extremely unreliable.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

HM, welcome to my world. I try to suggest Hector LeMans as a villian to this board and they have no freaking clue who he is. So sad.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

http://dreggman.com/newsite/fanart/deathwalker/pictures/4.jpg

I dig, bro.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

The thing is that some of those polls can be an indicator of things. They're not 100% accurate by any means, but there's not useless.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

How do you find out your rank in this thing?
I've got all 6 points currently and from the looks of things, it's going to be 7/7 with this Lavos match.

Also, who else here thinks Ocelot can upset Bowser and everyone else in his division?

Also, who else here thinks Ocelot can upset Bowser and everyone else in his division?

noone. not even Heroic Mario.

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Dang.
Good thing I'm not going for prizes.

I'd also be curious to see what type of user pics would be made for Ganon vs. Seph.

That reminds me of what I wanted to do if I had a good program to and knew how to do it back in the Spring Contest, about the FF7/LoZ:OoT match...a simple pic of the hero's swords vertical and in the middle of their side, then have the villains translucent directly behind them...

...okay, I may or may not be describing it all that well so I'll quit, but I have a bad-ass vision in my head, trust me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I like to see Gannondorf choking the life out of Sephiroth while Sephiroth calls for his Mommy to save him.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Also, who else here thinks Ocelot can upset Bowser and everyone else in his division?
noone. not even Heroic Mario.

Not true; Master Mage is still all into that.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

still? that silly MasterMage, lol.

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Ocelot over Bowser?

Shoot, I'm not even confident in Ocelot over Wily anymore.
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Lavos vs. Mother Brain - Bracket: Lavos - Vote: M. Brain (6/6)