From what we've seen of PC characters in this contest, all of the factors that people are mentioning would help Diablo pretty much apply to Duke Nukem as well. That's what I was getting at when I said that.

Personally, it's not that hard to realize that recognizability =/= likeability. I think you guys need to stop making a big deal out of being "recognizable" when we're not dealing with cult characters, which in the case of Ridley/Diablo, we are not.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

They do help Duke, but Diablo's got the advantage of a consumer base that's several times larger than Duke's. But hey, I'm not arguing for Diablo, I think he's going to be pretty weak. Ridley's just going to be weaker.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Going straight by random statistics, only 2,724 perfect brackets should remain. However, well more than that still exist, proving that we are oooh so much smarter than mathematics.

Actually, if everyone filled out their bracket by flipping coins (which I think is what you're saying), we'd expect to have 193 perfects right now. If everyone had filled out a favorites bracket, we'd expect 1161 perfects.
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Supporting CATS in the Spring Contest.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Is this Diablo?

http://www.diabloii.nu/images/wallpaper/TN_d2_box_800x600.JPG

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Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.

Actually, if everyone filled out their bracket by flipping coins (which I think is what you're saying), we'd expect to have 193 perfects right now. If everyone had filled out a favorites bracket, we'd expect 1161 perfects

He meant going by the %es on how many picked each match correct.

But since there is a correlation between picking matches correct, since it is a skill, the distribution is more skewed than it would be if matches were independent. Thus, we have more perfects than you get by simply multiplying the correct pick %es.
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www.SC2K5.com

http://www.geocities.com/diablo_creep/diablo1.gif.gif
http://www.geocities.com/diablo_creep/diablo2.gif.gif
http://www.geocities.com/diablo_creep/diablo3.gif.gif
http://www.geocities.com/diablo_creep/diablo4.gif.gif

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Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.

i.e., he's doing this calculation:

24,748 * 96.13% * 57.77% * 65.11% * 71.73% * 97.41% * 70.15% * 62.11% = 2,724.2

Actual perfects equals 3,708. Getting one match right will have a positive correlation with getting another match right--barring huge upsets, when things sometimes tend to become backwards, and the "experts" tend to go down together.

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www.SC2K5.com

therealmnm: (emphasis mine)
Even though Duke Nukem may be the BEST comparison for Diablo, doesn't mean it's a GOOD comparison. You guys act like we have tons of PC characters to collect data from. We've had all of like what, 2-3 examples of PC characters? Just because they are PC doesn't mean they all are comparable. It's obvious Diablo is a unique situation, just like Starcraft was, just how I believe Gordon Freeman is. Gordon Freeman isn't as popular as his game not because he is a PC character. It's because he is Gordon Freeman. Until I see 100 examples of PC characters not being close to their games, I'm gonna decline all the use of comparisons and continue to look at each match individually.

Very well said. I agree with this too.

Duke Nukem is a better comparison for Diablo than Gordon Freeman, but I would expect Diablo to be stronger than Nukem.

Remember though that in terms of this contest, Nukem's strength is not trivial.
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www.SC2K5.com

To add onto that, in 2K4, Nukem and Kefka are tied in the unadjusted standings. According to the adjusted ones Nukem might get around 45% on Kefka. Even adjusting down for the Milk'em pic he should still get low 40's.

If Diablo and/or Ridley are stronger than Nukem, they certainly have a shot to beat Kefka.
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www.SC2K5.com

Tenpenny looking like CATS? No one. The most pessimistic scenario was something like 75-25.

Chichiri had suggested it.

The highest ranked PC character in these contests has been Duke Nukem, and even he would have the fight of his life against Vyse.

Yep...and to add to it, he's also got the series named after him like Diablo did, and you actually ARE DN whereas you're not Diablo. Let's not forget he's on his box, too. Consider that as you will.
***Just noticed: Pheduik has now said the same thing. Well said man.

Diablo 2 won the PC one, with some stiff competition from Max Payne. No, I'm not kidding.
And in the overall poll... well, it got slaughtered. FF10 in first, followed by GTA3, SSBM, MGS2, Halo, and THEN D2 in 6th place. With 4.5% of the vote. Ouch.

Heh...to be fair, we see how SSBM and FFX went, as well as GTA3's sequel. Halo and MGS2 too, while we're at it; Diablo's the only one that hasn't had any representation yet.

If you know of Samus, you might know Ridley, just not his name.

I think this is the truest thing said about it yet, even though I think we've all said something similar to it...but, given the GameFAQs crowd, there'll be a much higher ratio of people who know who Samus and Ridley are than other places, so that isn't goin' to be the most effective thing.

I would agree that Duke Nukem seems to be a much better comparison to Diablo than Gordon Freeman.

As would I; I can't imagine Diablo being too much stronger or weaker than him, though I'd barely take Diablo over Kefka head-to-head.

Snake vs Tanner lite.

So true, so true.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I think I'm gonna do my top characters/games list now, just for the hell of it. The board is gonna be active during ruin division matches and afterwards, so now is as good a time as any to do it. Feel free to comment on it in the topic!
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yes, yes I did suggest it.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Out of curiosity, is there any pick that, at this point in the contest, you wish you could change? Sorry if this has already been asked, I'm currently skimming the topic.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

i'm tempted to put ocelot over bowser for real, but...
other than that, no.
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Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Wily||Sephy, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid
Kefka, Wesker, Bison, Diablo||Ganon, Ansem, Eggman, Kuja

I'd sell my soul to change Ocelot to Wily.

And HaRRiCH, if you remember, Halo was looked down upon as the plague back then.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 07/07 - Matches: 07/07 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Liquid - Tomorrow: Kefka

Protoman got 28.28% on Zero head-to-head, though there was almost certainly SFF...

...so, just to spark a lil' discussion, if Dr. Wily is goin' to be equal to unadjusted Protoman, Ultros has to a touch stronger than Terry Bogard (12.89% on Link). This means Zero would almost quadruple Ultros (20.35%). If Sigma is goin' to be equal to the same unadjusted Protoman, Andross has to be a lil' stronger than Conker (16.66% on Link). This means Zero would come close to a tripling if he faced Andross (26.30%). For good measure, this would mean Ultros would get 38.69% against Andross if Wily = Protoman = Sigma.

What to make of it from there, hey, your call. I know I'm hungry right now though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I'd like to change to Wily > Ocelot and I'm not too confident in Albedo > Bison either.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I'd sell my soul to change Ocelot to Wily.

I don't see why. The odds of Ultros being much stronger than CATS aren't very high, methinks. Wily's performance was far from impressive considering his opponent, and I'd take Nemesis to beat Ultros in a heartbeat.

If anything, it's 50/50 right now.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Gah, the topic came back to life while I was posting that. Humbug...ah well.

HaRRiCH, if you remember, Halo was looked down upon as the plague back then.

Point taken; I just wanted to mention it in there.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Out of curiosity, is there any pick that, at this point in the contest, you wish you could change? Sorry if this has already been asked, I'm currently skimming the topic.

I've been feeling more and more iffy about Albedo/Bison and Revolver/Wily, as well as Kuja/Master Hand a lil'. Otherwise, I'm feelin' alright about it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Hmm... Let's say Nemesis is equal to Kain, which doesn't sound too bad. Where would that put Ocelot? I would do the calculation myself, but I can never remember the formulas.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

is there any pick that, at this point in the contest, you wish you could change?

Yes - Ghaleon over Vergil. =P
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Supporting CATS in the Spring Contest.

I get 20.74%, right inbetween Bomberman and Ryu H.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Hmm... Let's say Nemesis is equal to Kain, which doesn't sound too bad. Where would that put Ocelot? I would do the calculation myself, but I can never remember the formulas.

<shameless plug> http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/26 </shameless plug>
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Thanks, Har.

The theory I've been working on is that Ultros is approximately equal to Gordon Freeman. Based on Har's stats, that puts Wily slightly below Max Payne, I believe. I also believe Nemesis's ceiling to be Ness and his floor to be Crash, so I picked Kain, since he's about right between them. Even if his floor is Crash, that defilitely leaves Ocelot quite a lot of room to beat Wily.

Also, the one match I might change is Sin/Robotnik. I have Robutt winning, but I have zero confidence in him.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

RPGuy, I've had those things downloaded for a day or two now, but I'm just now starting to install them. I'll tell ya what I think 'bout it when I get it goin'. It's a great idea though, and you deserve a good lay for trying to make such a program.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I have Dr. Robotnik getting to Ganondorf...and I like to think he'll do it if he beats Sin. I think the winner'll be close and it could go either way, but I haven't had many/any doubts loom over me in that match.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

You've gotta consider though, that's assuming Protoman has NO SFF in his match. It also assuming Wily is no stronger than Protoman. Now, to be fair, you can consider Chichiri's theory of Mega Man being wrongly adjusted, but that'd mean Protoman would still be affected minimally because Mega Man would have effectively SFF'd Zero in that case (minimally), so it shouldn't cost Protoman much in that department. You can also bring up Wily potentially being weaker than Protoman, but I simply find it more likely he'll be stronger than him (though who knows how much stronger). If you think Protoman got SFF'd a lil' and think Dr. Wily's a lil' stronger than Protoman, that would cover him up to Kain in all likelyhood (and, from my stance on those two, bumps him up more to VJ's level). Then, add to it that Planet Mega Man will be linking to GameFAQs for the second day in a row when Wily faces Revolver (and will likely get a better link on the front page than what he got against Ultros as well), and that makes the match more interesting.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

You guys are all completely missing the factor that will cause Diablo to tower far above all other PC characters to date.....TCF(The Coolness Factor)

Diablo's turds have more coolness than Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem combined, end of story. Do not fear. Come Sunday, you will see the light.

Ridley has the same cool external appearance, really.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Havin' grown up with Duke Nukem, no matter how cheesy a bastard he truly is, he is like the Fonz of video game coolness to me. I just now realized that, interestingly enough...and no, I'm not saying that he's real cool in everybody else's eyes. Just a personal revelation.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Ridley has the same cool external appearance, really.

Depends on the pic that gets used before I'll agree to this one.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Well, I mean, they both look like dragons. It's pretty much the same visual appeal.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Where I'll still hold back my opinion until I see specific pics. Some pics have Ridley lookin' ugly while others look pretty good, and the same can be said to Diablo (without as big of a range on either side) in my eyes.

Ridley's a purple pterodactyl, too...dammit.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Ultros is a purple octopus, and we saw how far that got him.

The odds of Ultros being much stronger than CATS aren't very high, methinks.

I think Ultros would beat CATS pretty easy.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I see Ultros beating CATS head-to-head pretty easily, but indirectly, Ultros shouldn't be much stronger.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

I don't see Ultros being very high above CATS at all.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I would take Ultros over the likes of everyone as high as Lara Croft.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I have Dr. Robotnik getting to Ganondorf...and I like to think he'll do it if he beats Sin. I think the winner'll be close and it could go either way, but I haven't had many/any doubts loom over me in that match.

I have Robotnik winning over Sin as well. One thing I have always noticed is how wild the Sonic characters can be. Shadow actually got 45% on Mario and damn near beat Tidus, Tails pulled an upset on VJ while Knuckles pulled big upsets on Yuna and Kefka. I wouldn't be surprised if Robotnik made it to the Elite 8 to be honest (if he can beat Sin, I'm sure Kuja won't be much different).

Ganondorf is taking the division, beating whoever wins Ruin and losing to Seph in the finals, that I'm sure we all agree on.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
Contest Stats: 7/7 Next Winner: Liquid Snake

...and Lara Croft's not very high.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman

Hmm. That would make Ultros beat CATS with 56%, which I think is far too low. I would probably take Ultros over Laharl and Pac-Man while we're at it. Hell, I could see him being higher overall. But I'll stop for now.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

I think you're giving Ultros too much credit.

Then again, you want Wily to win next round, so you have to make him seem strong.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'm just honestly saying who I would and wouldn't take Ultros over. The only reason I'll stop is to avoid a large scale argument and/or because we'll find out where he places soon enough. I just think that being associated with FF is going to put him above a lot of the crap that we had last year, which includes people like Lara Croft and Laharl.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

If I did my calculations correct, if Ultros = Laharl then Wily is about = Kos-Mos
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

I think the thought of Nemmy being strong is laughable. Ultros is a joke, for sure, but Nemmy is too.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Kefka > Mithos!

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png

*trips you*

Not 500 today either, guys.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman