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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 118
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:40:17 AM | Message Detail
I'm assuming he forgot the nominations for Spring was one game per console per generation as opposed to 10 free nominations for this contest...
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:45:36 AM | Message Detail
Well, Liquid might be good for a tripling next round.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:46:26 AM | Message Detail
Um, no. I don't even see Liquid tripling Tenpenny.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:48:11 AM | Message Detail
I'm not sure Lavos would be stronger than Tenpenny, personally.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:48:52 AM | Message Detail
Hehe, that's a good one.

...that's... a joke... right?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:51:55 AM | Message Detail
I'm not sure either. Frankly we have no evidence one way or the other, so why is it a joke? Because it's not the popular opinion, or because it just goes so contrary to your opinion?
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:52:14 AM | Message Detail
What? You're expecting Lavos to be worth something?
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:53:51 AM | Message Detail
What? You're expecting TENPENNY to be worth something?

Dude, this is GameFAQs. Even being from Chrono Trigger will net you a certain number of votes.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:56:51 AM | Message Detail
I didn't say that. It's just that, from the talk of everyone expecting Mother Brain to be one of the weakest participants and Lavos performing like this, saying he'd be stronger than Tenpenny is no guarantee.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:58:02 AM | Message Detail
I never expected Mother Brain to be among the weakest, if only because of the Metroid roots.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:59:14 AM | Message Detail
There still won't be many weaker than Mother Brain, regardless. Heck, I wouldn't take MB to beat Tenpenny.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:00:53 AM | Message Detail
Lavos 56% 10621
Mother Brain 44% 8346
TOTAL VOTES 18967

I read about two more pages in this topic, hit Refresh, and MB gained another .11%, heh. Atta' boy...err, girl...or, rather, it.

I'd take Lavos over Tenpenny without thinking much about it. Lavos doesn't have to be anything special, because between GTA's anti-votes (which'll be minimal, granted), his ceiling (Vercetti) being much higher than what he'll get, and the pre-contest-upset poll, Tenpenny has shown not to be anything special either.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:02:11 AM | Message Detail
That poll means jack squat, and Lavos wouldn't come anywhere CLOSE to Vercetti himself. What's your point?
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:02:27 AM | Message Detail
Nice job, Mother Brain.
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From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:07:44 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger is the third most popular game on the site, and while CT's characters have always performed extremely well, Vercetti pretty much bombed.

I'd say Tenpenny wouldn't have prayer against Lavos.

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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:08:50 AM | Message Detail
Game popularity =/= Character popularity

Liking Chrono Trigger doesn't mean you give a crap about Lavos 'cause I know I sure don't.
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From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:17:42 AM | Message Detail
In a match between Mother Brain and Lavos, knowing who both are is a luxury. Therefore, the support the games get is a pretty good indicator of which of those might win.

How is this different in a match with Tenpenny? He has a few things going for him (SA being on multiple consoles, being from a recent game) but he's up against the villain of Chrono Trigger.

The strength of a game is very indicative of the strength of it's characters. Take my word for it. You don't know enough to question it.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:18:45 AM | Message Detail
Actually, I think Lavos would perform pretty decently against Vercetti. Better than Max Payne did, at any rate.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:19:42 AM | Message Detail
It's not exactly like Grand Theft Auto is unpopular. The Metroid games didn't get a lot of support in a contest environment, and yet Samus can beat anybody except the big three.
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From: Mumei | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:21:52 AM | Message Detail
Wow. When I looked at about 6:15 AM, Lavos was around 58 - 59%. Mother Brain is doing pretty well for itself (herself?)...
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:22:07 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger is the third most popular game on the site, and while CT's characters have always performed extremely well

I pointed this out yesterday, I think, which makes me feel decent about Lavos, even if MB is keeping close with it. MB may be old-school and not in any of the newer games, but also think back to 2k2 before there was Metroid Prime; Samus still beat Sonic and came close to Sephiroth. I don't know about EVERY Metroid game, but I know MB was in the original and SM (though I never finished that one either). Perhaps MB's not as weak as we once thought? Of course, obviously no powerhouse, but still.....

Vercetti pretty much bombed.

By our expectations, yeah, but he actually didn't do too bad for himself; I think he made the Top Thirty-Two strongest characters list that we've ever had.

Also, though I've played GTA:SA once, I don't know much about Tenpenny (ruined cop, I think)...but I'd bet CT fans would care more for Lavos than GTA:SA fans would for Tenpenny. Or, rather, show less apathy. Yor call.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:23:29 AM | Message Detail
Well, Samus also had Super Smash Brothers to maintain her, if you put any stock into the effect it could have had.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:25:24 AM | Message Detail
Which I do, but the Metroid series had to help her more than SSB or SSBM.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:26:02 AM | Message Detail
No, Tenpenny is actually surprisingly charismatic. Samuel L. Jackson did his share to bring life to the character, and he has a plethora of one-liners. His problem is that he wasn't that impressive. No incredible combat-skills, no epic world-threatening situations, no personal goals or evil plans.

I like Tenpenny. But he isn't the most memorable of villains.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:26:30 AM | Message Detail
Obviously. But we've already seen that Dr. Wily probably isn't anywhere close to Mega Man, and he's been in a game more recently than Mother Brain.
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From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:28:37 AM | Message Detail
FYI, how do the stat-regulars feel about Ocelot vs Wily? Any kind of consensus?

I'm giving a slight edge to Ocelot, still. But I wouldn't dare to bet on it.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:29:41 AM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Wily has it.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:29:59 AM | Message Detail
I still like Ocelot in that one. Ultros isn't much more than a joke character, and we know how they perform in contests.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:30:52 AM | Message Detail
Dr. Wily's been in more games too, while we're at it. Hmmm...I'm gonna let the day go on and see how MB keeps doin' before I comment much more on that.

And SLJ is a bad mother****er, so to speak, so I'd bet he did have his one-liners.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:33:14 AM | Message Detail
I give Wily the edge SOLEY because that MM site will likely have a higher link that has more emphasis on Wily than last time, and the site probably won't have problems that day either. Without that extra little bit, I'd call it even.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:33:15 AM | Message Detail
That's an early call. I dunno. FF VI seems to be the exception to the rule when it comes to game-strength being directly related to characters, although that might just be the lack of focus on one central hero to carry the banner.

What I'm meaning to say is, Ultros might just be a huge dud. I can see where you're coming from, though. Resident Evil might deliver good competitors, anything Final Fantasy has always been a powerhouse.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:34:53 AM | Message Detail
Anything from the PSX games has proven to be decently strong. Before that...they're pretty much duds. Kefka would be expected to lose to Ramza.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:36:20 AM | Message Detail
By 2003 stats, of course.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:37:33 AM | Message Detail
...


Did Kefka really rank below Ramza?

I've got Kefka taking the Ruin Division. In the land of the blind one-eye is king. I'm hoping that king will be Kefka.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:40:43 AM | Message Detail
Ramza's also underestimated by the 2003 stats, thanks to being in Alucard's four pack that year.

Looking at RPGuy's all-time stats, Ramza is projected to beat Kefka with 52.77%. And if what Chichiri has proposed about the 20XX Division is true, Kefka is really on the level of Duke Nukem, and in that case, Ramza wins with 57%.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:42:24 AM | Message Detail
Looking at RPGuy's all-time stats, Ramza is projected to beat Kefka with 52.77%. And if what Chichiri has proposed about the 20XX Division is true, Kefka is really on the level of Duke Nukem, and in that case, Ramza wins with 57%.

It'd be interesting if there'd be any SFF in that match, or if Kefka got a sprite pic, if that'd make any noticable difference.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 8:43:40 AM | Message Detail
I'd say the ONLY instance in which a picture will matter is if the participants are relatively obscure, and even then, I'd say it'd be minimal.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
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From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:16:32 AM | Message Detail
Ocelot vs Wily: I still haven't seen anything convincing me that Ultros is anything more than Gordon Freeman. Ocelot isn't strong, but he doesn't have to be to beat Wily. Ocelot still takes it.

This match: You all will see Lavos's true strength when he gets doubled by Liquid. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go 70-30 either. A tripling is a bit much to ask for.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:17:21 AM | Message Detail
A mere doubling means Lavos is about as strong as Kefka. I don't see that being the case.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:19:14 AM | Message Detail
It would also mean that Mother Brain is at about the 20% mark on Link, which I also don't think is the case.
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From: swirldude | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:28:49 AM | Message Detail
Lavos 55.76% 13645
Mother Brain 44.24% 10824
TOTAL VOTES 24469

Watch the Brain pull a Duck Hunt right now.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:29:25 AM | Message Detail
Mother Brain might want to consider cutting into the lead before pulling a Duck Hunt.
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From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:30:11 AM | Message Detail
I think Liquid's position in 2K4 is a bit inflated due to the Solid **** factor.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:30:46 AM | Message Detail
Oh, how I would LOVE to see a big-sized comeback. It's not like I care for either one of them, ber the unexpected excitement would be nice.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Fiop | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:30:50 AM | Message Detail
I'd say the ONLY instance in which a picture will matter is if the participants are relatively obscure, and even then, I'd say it'd be minimal.

I fail to see the logic behind this.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:31:10 AM | Message Detail
Or it could be inflated due to the 20XX Factor being non-existent.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:32:27 AM | Message Detail
I fail to see the logic behind this.

Then tell me why a picture matters when the voters know both characters. It's not like they look at Lettuce Kefka and say, "Oh I like Kefka, but that picture sucks, so I'm not voting for him."

They'd be much more likely to vote based on picture in a match where they don't know either one, such as yesterday.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:35:32 AM | Message Detail
Oh, somebody just pointed this out in another topic, but I hadn't realized it before.

I think we can safely say that CJayC didn't choose the participants for that underdog poll based on having the most bracket support, as both Nemesis and Andross had more than Ultros, yet weren't included.

No idea why he picked the ones he did, but whatever.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 9:50:44 AM | Message Detail
All five were seeds 5-7; no 8-seeds or upper-seeds were in the poll. Picking from five of those twelve after now seeing it's not from the most bracket-supported characters, I think CJay had just picked them for the sake of picking them now.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 10:00:25 AM | Message Detail
Then tell me why a picture matters when the voters know both characters. It's not like they look at Lettuce Kefka and say, "Oh I like Kefka, but that picture sucks, so I'm not voting for him."

They'd be much more likely to vote based on picture in a match where they don't know either one, such as yesterday.


I still say that a voter isn't entitled to vote the same way everytime. Although it may break the definition of "SFF" that we have come to love, it's entirely possible for a lot of voters to like BOTH characters regardless of what company they are from. We can't say how much it accounts for because we don't know. We can only speculate. But for example, think about how extremely popular Link and Cloud are. It's very likely that they are favorites of a large number of voters. So a less favorable picture of Wind Waker Link against a kickass Kingdom Hearts version of Cloud could possibly be more than enough to sway the votes. And the fact that the pic issue even came up is proof that there ARE voters that it would make a difference to. The argument on this board is that people that vote Link would vote for him no matter what. I think that's where the argument is faulty. It's more than a possibility among 100,000 voters.....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
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