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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 118
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:32:27 AM | Message Detail
Mother Brain is probably weak as hell.

And judging by the looks of Lavos's plummeting percentage, he doesn't look all that much better. Unless Robutt is a complete loser, I have an inkling of when my perfect is going down >_>

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:32:33 AM | Message Detail
Hold up.... Diablo is being debated on to beat LAVOS? Since when did Lavos turn into some kind of powerhouse? Because he's beating Mother Brain? HM, it's a consensus that Ridley/Diablo will be a barnburner if anything. Now you're saying Diablo has no chance against Lavos? So what are your thoughts about Ridley now? Don't tell me you're actually gonna say that Lavos would crush Ridley too?
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From: Ryan AK | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:32:38 AM | Message Detail
How come nobody in the stats has a space in their name? Just the ones with underscores are there.
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:33:41 AM | Message Detail
Ahem...

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:33:49 AM | Message Detail
Also since they're both shell villains wouldn't that pretty much make their strength boil down to how popular the games they are in are? Last I checked CT did better than FFX in the polls.
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:35:22 AM | Message Detail
Can you go back to playing Tales of Symphonia? At least your TOS obsessions were something I actually agreed with, unlike you actually saying that Lavos is anything special. Give me a break.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:35:26 AM | Message Detail
And at this rate Lavos is gonna be driven under 60% by 1 PST... outta curiousity, since both of these characters look bad, are bland and otherwise uninspiring, who is going to take the day vote? Normally Nintendo>Square on day votes, and given how lackluster Lavos is looking right now, would it shock anyone to perhaps see Mother Brain win an update or two before this thing is over?

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Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:35:28 AM | Message Detail
Hold up.... Diablo is being debated on to beat LAVOS? Since when did Lavos turn into some kind of powerhouse?

I ask you, when was it ever certain that Diablo would be something in the way of strength? Because I'm expecting him to be weak as hell.

HM, it's a consensus that Ridley/Diablo will be a barnburner if anything. Now you're saying Diablo has no chance against Lavos?

Uh, and that suddenly makes it true? Because most can agree it'll be close does not mean that is how it will play out. And no, I'm not saying Diablo has *no* chance against Lavos, I'm simply disagreeing that Diablo would destroy him. I would probably take Lavos in a close one over Diablo. I have yet to hear any solid reasoning to expect Diablo to be strong. This is a tribute to his weakness over Lavos's strength.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:35:57 AM | Message Detail
Crap, the percentage is going way under 62. There goes all my spread betting cash.
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:36:45 AM | Message Detail
Don't worry... you'll get all the proof you need on Diablo's worth when he beats Ridley handly (i.e. 55/45+).

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Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:37:45 AM | Message Detail
Lavos 61.5% 1230
Mother Brain 38.5% 770
TOTAL VOTES 2000
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:38:01 AM | Message Detail
unlike you actually saying that Lavos is anything special. Give me a break.

As a character, yes I will argue that Lavos is something special. I find him unique and interesting. But that's hardly insulting when you said earlier that you thought Sin was one of the best villains out there. In a contest, I'm not saying Lavos will be special. I've said multiple times that I expect around Kefka and no more.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:38:09 AM | Message Detail
HM since you seem so confident in Ridleys victory, how about a sig bet over it (of course that's assuming you don't already have one)?
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:39:31 AM | Message Detail
I have a couple of sig bets over it already. I would gladly accept, but since I don't know when you would get my signature if I lost, I'll refrain.




And I would suspect that Lavos could muster up something in the way of the day vote. But we'll have to see how that plays out. He does appear to be dropping in percentage for whatever reason.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:39:38 AM | Message Detail
MB win an update? RREEAALLLLYY doubtin' it, but, it'd be cool if it happened.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:39:53 AM | Message Detail
And at this rate Lavos is gonna be driven under 60% by 1 PST... outta curiousity, since both of these characters look bad, are bland and otherwise uninspiring, who is going to take the day vote?

Sadly, Chrono Trigger is miserably bad during the day.

Chrono Trigger and Starcraft have pretty much the most extreme day/night disparities out there, IIRC.
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:41:16 AM | Message Detail
The difference between Sin and Lavos is that everything about Sin is very well developed and deep. Lavos... not so much, I feel. Granted Lavos was the basis of Sin's character, but Sin's story is told a lot better.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:42:12 AM | Message Detail
How is this looking so far in the way of total votes? Most people expected that no one would really give a crap about this match come the end of it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:43:18 AM | Message Detail
Lavos's percentage looked like it was rising again for a bit there, but it seems to be falling again.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:43:21 AM | Message Detail
Don't be surprised to see MB make the percentages noticably closer during the day-time. With that said, g-nite ya'll.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:47:04 AM | Message Detail
*waves finger at HM* Since when have you seen me talk about Diablo being strong NOT relative to Ridley? 75% of the characters in this contest are weak as hell. I just think that it won't take much for Diablo to be stronger than Ridley. Being the namesake of a popular series AND being a devil has to account for something. And don't give me the whole Zelda thing because that's usually the next step. No, she's no Link or Ganondorf, but Zelda would beat most of the people in THIS contest.

And even in the WORST case, Diablo can't be weaker than Kain. And Kain's not that far away from Ness, who has more going for him than I think Ridley would.... But I don't even like using stats. Straight up in a one on one match, I can see Diablo beating Ridley. Point blank.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:52:07 AM | Message Detail
How is this looking so far in the way of total votes? Most people expected that no one would really give a crap about this match come the end of it.

Slightly better than Bowser vs Pyramid Head right now.

Lavos's percentage looked like it was rising again for a bit there, but it seems to be falling again.

Expect it to end slightly below where it is now like every other thing related to Chrono Trigger seems to do.
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:54:20 AM | Message Detail
What was my pick? Around 57% something or other?

Yeah, both Lavos and Mother Brain are weak bastards.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:56:26 AM | Message Detail
What would Vercetti be expected to get on Liquid Snake?

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Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/9/2005 12:56:49 AM | Message Detail
"Only if D2 sites help the cause pretty drastically, and I haven't heard so much as a peep from any of them."

No StarCraft site had anything about its match against Halo until the day it occurred.

Chances are pretty high that someone will contact a news poster for diabloii.net, although I doubt Diablo needs any outside help to beat Ridley.
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"Only by mastering time itself do you stand a chance against Lavos." - Belthasar
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:00:31 AM | Message Detail
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:56:26 AM | Message Detail
What would Vercetti be expected to get on Liquid Snake?


40.38%, though I'd guess that in a match, he'd actually get a little less. Liquid Snake would not take the board by surprise, and most people would bracket vote for him. I'd guess that he would win with at least 61% of the vote or so.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:02:08 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:05:29 AM | Message Detail
Gracias... it is too late to try and rationalize how to work the X-Stats, and I never took the time to learn it. And since I have not taken a math class in almost five years...

Just wanted to try and create a ceiling for Tenpenny.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:08:43 AM | Message Detail
I'm still confident with Ridley for numerous reasons.
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Jon Thomson - 6/6, today: Lavos, tomorrow: Liquid Snake
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:10:17 AM | Message Detail
Dumbed down explanation:

To figure out how one character would do against another, you take the weaker character's Xst number, divide it into the stronger character's Xst number, then multiply the result by 50. For your example, you would divide Vercetti's number into Liquid's.

Trust me, you'll be able to figure it out yourself within 3 seconds once you look at the Xsts themselves and fiddle around with the numbers. It's easy.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:14:33 AM | Message Detail
And also utterly pointless. Don't forget that part as well.
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Even at my age I'm shakin' what my momma gave me.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:16:22 AM | Message Detail
...the Xsts are pointless?

Wow.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:19:25 AM | Message Detail
Hey, I aintn't the one who be forgetinn to put that part in, I just sayin.
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Even at my age I'm shakin' what my momma gave me.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:24:37 AM | Message Detail
...the Xsts are pointless?

They're certainly overrated. They're not needed to call Cloud-Duke, but I wouldn't trust them to call something like Dante-Kirby. Besides, when you've got to rely on alterations to remove something like CATS>Ganondorf, you've got to rely on someone else's judgment which takes away the point a bit.
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Jon Thomson - 6/6, today: Lavos, tomorrow: Liquid Snake
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: creativename | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:27:45 AM | Message Detail
http://img142.echo.cx/my.php?image=untitled8sy.png

The reason for this is almost surely database related.

I'm guessing the order of queries is like this (pseudo-code with variable names made up):

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totalvotes: SELECT votes1+votes2 FROM poll
$votes1=SELECT votes1 FROM poll
$percentone = votes1/totalvotes
$votes2=SELECT votes2 FROM poll
$percenttwo = votes2/totalvotes
-----

And after totalvotes and votes1 are calculated somebody votes for the second entrant, changing votes two.

e.g., say that the votes are 16 and 4. The display results script calculates the totalvotes, and votes1; while it does this, somebody votes for the second entrant, updating votes2. But votes1 = 16/20 and votes = 5/20, since totalvotes was queried earlier.
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From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:35:52 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and they're certainly pointless in this contest given the draw, as every character is pretty much on their own tier - the only potential matches between previous contestants that might be fairly close are between Ganondorf, Bowser and Liquid Snake, but Seph's beating them all anyway and we'd still have a good idea without the xstats how they'd go. I suppose the only possible use here is if you're guessing how strong/weak Wesker is in a "about Max Payne, say" manner then comparing to Luca.
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Jon Thomson - 6/6, today: Lavos, tomorrow: Liquid Snake
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:02:02 AM | Message Detail
Sadly, Chrono Trigger is miserably bad during the day.

Not exactly true. It's just that the night vote is by far Chrono Trigger's strongest timeframe, so it can't help but do worse during the day. I figured that was pretty obvious when it went 50/50 with FFVII for a while, which was merciless against OoT from the start.

Also, Lavos is under 60% now.
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:09:44 AM | Message Detail
Not exactly true. It's just that the night vote is by far Chrono Trigger's strongest timeframe, so it can't help but do worse during the day. I figured that was pretty obvious when it went 50/50 with FFVII for a while, which was merciless against OoT from the start.

The subject is day/night disparities.

When you talk about relative strengths in that regard, relative strength in one is relative weakness in the other.

Crono isn't affected in as extreme a manner as Chrono Trigger or Frog. But it seems that Lavos will fall along traditional Chrono Trigger patterns.
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From: cyko | Posted: 5/9/2005 4:11:19 AM | Message Detail
and Chrono Trigger is once again proving it's daytime weakness. Lavos is still slowly increasing it's vote lead, but the percentage is down to 58.2%. i won't be surprised to see Lavos head down to 55% by the evening hours.

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From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/9/2005 4:23:08 AM | Message Detail
missed some stuff while napping....

the xstats are useful. they're the closest thing we have to any way of understanding how matches that haven't yet happened would happen. they aren't a bible, they're a guide.

>ulti, i dunno that sin would murder lavos. i just don't feel like a lot of ffx players were really into sin. if you talk to chrono trigger players and ask them for the main villain they will say lavos, but if you ask ffx players for the main villain they will most likely not say sin. that said, i think a lot of sin's votes will be from fan votes that don't expect him to be in the contest. so they'll see him and be like "oh cool, it's sin from ffx. i love that game." also, i just have a hard time picturing sin take down a classic video game character, terrible as he may be. also something different needs to happen in this tourney, and it's anyone's guess what that will be.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 6/6 Next Pick: Lavos
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 4:43:21 AM | Message Detail
Hehe, Lavos is winning, but not by much. Perfect for my bracket... things are looking a lot better for Eggman now.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: EvIlBeAsT616X_X | Posted: 5/9/2005 5:07:52 AM | Message Detail
I think the seeding's a bit more reliable here than it was in the Spring Contest. It's not like the #1 seed being the obvious Xbox nomination VS the #16 being a very popular PC game lucky to even make it simply because of all the competition it has.

If Ridley managed to snag a #2 seed, he has at least some popularity. Metroid Prime has to help a bit, not to mention the general console-bias. And his appearance will match even with Diablo, cancelling out the pic votes.

I'm just thinking people are overestimating Diablo. It's not like Starcraft, where it had huge competition to even get into the contest compared to freaking Halo. I still think the odds favor Ridley in this match.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 5:16:51 AM | Message Detail
And look, Mother Brain is owning the day vote, too. That's going to make Square's two "I don't give a crap" villains look really bad down the line, and I wonder what this would mean for Ridley, a villain people actually care about.

Either way, today looks like nothing more than a war of franchise votes, and as highlighted by the game contest, Metroid doesn't get many of those. I wonder how Sin would be doing if he was in Lavos' place... methinks he'd be in a slight, declining lead right now.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 5:34:07 AM | Message Detail
Well, this certainly isn't much fun compared to last night.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 5:39:22 AM | Message Detail
If some people were comparing Mother Brain to Ridley and Sin to Lavos, I would certainly imagine they wouldn't be saying the same thing they were before. Given that CT is known for being a slouch during the day, Mother Brain could potentially lower this score below 55% before all is said and done. That should take away a lot from Sin and give a lot to Ridley, for those that were comparing the two at least.

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From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:08:23 AM | Message Detail
Lavos is dropping like a rock. At this rate, MB should easily get this under 55% by the day's end.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:22:55 AM | Message Detail
diablo's seed would be much higher if cjayc had announced that starcraft characters weren't eligible because you play as each faction. i am very confident that kerrigan had enough nominations to be at least a 3 seed.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 6/6 Next Pick: Lavos
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:38:01 AM | Message Detail
...what does Diablo's seed have to do with Starcraft?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:39:28 AM | Message Detail
His assuming most people who nominated Starcraft would have nominated Diablo had they known StarCraft characters were ineligible.
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Smurf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/9/2005 7:40:08 AM | Message Detail
Well, that's dumb.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 06/06 - Matches: 06/06 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Lavos - Tomorrow: Liquid
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